Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Joachim Coens, the president of CD&V, resigned over this poll yesterday. In possibly related news, yesterday I found out the president of CD&V is called Joachim Coens.

[PSOL]

Workers mobilize to scrap Wage Margin law preventing negotiations to increase wages

…Working class sections across Europe including in Belgium have been organizing frequent mobilizations to protest the ongoing cost of living crisis. Trade unions and progressive political parties have been demanding a general increase in wages to mitigate the crisis marked by skyrocketing food and energy prices. Belgian trade unions view the 1996 Wage Margin Act – which establishes a strict procedure for the Belgian social partners to negotiate a maximum average wage increase – as a major impediment to increase wages in the country.

Workers have also demanded that the government include the maximum number of working class households under social benefit schemes, ensure parity in wages between men and women, a minimum wage of EUR 14 (USD 15.11)/hour – EUR 2,300 (USD 2,482.62) per month and a minimum pension of EUR 1,500 (USD 1,619.10) per month, as well as reduction of VAT on energy to 6%. The unions have given a call for a major mobilization in Brussels on June 20...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1537898105735065600

LIBERALS IN DISARRAY.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

[Zinneke]

The darling of the Francophone nation Wilmes has resigned her position as Foreign Secretary to be with her dying husband. Bouchez has replaced her with Hadja Lahbib, a former RTBF foreign correspondent. This is the same RTBF of course that Bouchez said was dominated by a left-wing agenda...hmmm...

There was also a last minute negotiation on the ponzi pension scheme that caused some proper tensions, sometimes within the same political family. Bouchez as usual wants to play opposition within and criticised the deal his own ministers negotiated, prompting De Croo (increasingly under fire by the media and voters alike) to make an underlying dig at his counterpart for posing at festivals. Both VLD and MR though got their campaign pledge to have minimum 20 years work in order to obtain the minimum pension. Given the demographic and debt time bomb though this is all just semantics.

[Zinneke]

The darling of the Francophone nation Wilmes has resigned her position as Foreign Secretary to be with her dying husband. Bouchez has replaced her with Hadja Lahbib, a former RTBF foreign correspondent. This is the same RTBF of course that Bouchez said was dominated by a left-wing agenda...hmmm...

There was also a last minute negotiation on the ponzi pension scheme that caused some proper tensions, sometimes within the same political family. Bouchez as usual wants to play opposition within and criticised the deal his own ministers negotiated, prompting De Croo (increasingly under fire by the media and voters alike) to make an underlying dig at his counterpart for posing at festivals. Both VLD and MR though got their campaign pledge to have minimum 20 years work in order to obtain the minimum pension. Given the demographic and debt time bomb though this is all just semantics.

It turns out our new Foreign Minister visited Crimea after 2014 and posted a puff piece about the Russian occupation. The Ukraine press has picked up on it.

Why of all the talent in this country do we get such blockheads in positions of power...

[Zinneke]

The city of Ypres/Ieper (yes that one) were found to have casually wanted to host an extreme right music festival. This turned into a mini scandal with the fash agitators like Dries Vanlangenove minimising the request for non-white people to be in the city during the event. The context is of course the Ijzerwake, which the Flemish extreme right use to honour dead Flemish soldiers no matter what side they were fighting for. Rousseau threatened to pull from the majority in Ypres and it has caused significant embarrassment to the town and Flanders (who were warned by several foreign intelligence agencies about the event, and the Belgian secret service).

Flemish society definitely has huge issues with extreme right normalisation.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I didn't see your post, i made a thread about that in international general board

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=518837.0

Otherwise, i agree with you. Extreme-right is being normalized here.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20220819_97623523

Conner Rousseau (Vooruit): "People who are woke are as intolerant as the extremes."

Well, we're getting to the point where social democratic ideology has become a toxic and repulsive one.

[Zinneke]

In the news this week :

 

• In Brussels a bunch of uneducated inbred 3rdgen youth team up with boomer white Francophone Léopold II-loving Nimybists and dismantle public infrastructure, riot and assault their neighbours as part of their opposition towards a less car dominated capital - and the Brussels Regional Government caves in because the PS has pressure from uneducated youth inbreds who marry their first cousins
• An MR elected official records himself in their media studio saying Mussolini "did some good things" and should be treated more ambiguously today in the wake of Melonis election

[Zinneke]

So Eva De Bleecker (Open VLD), the Budget Secretary, resigned because she gave parliamentarians a different budget to scrutinize than the one actually agreed and to be implemented.

Even funnier, Open VLD decided to throw a dead cat (of sorts) by replacing her with an MR "heavyweight" (oxymoron intended) in Brussels, Alexia Bertrand, without informing her party. Bertrand seems to have wanted to cut the Bonapartist Georges-Louis and his mates at the knees, but the latter has decided that this was all part of a 4D chess move, scrambling on twitter to explain that ms Betrand was merely exercising her right as a dual Open VLD-MR member. Bertrand is now a member of a party that is in the Brussels Regional Government that she openly criticised as part of the Bouchez populist Right line and will likely stand on their lists rather than MR's for the sake of a ministerial rôle.

And the sickening part is that she's also part of one of the richest Belgian families and is on the board of several companies that benefit from close ties to government figures. In the Belgian partiocracy though a conflict of interest is par for the course.

[US Politics Fanatic]

Would you agree that if Wallonia becomes one day part of France, the region would vote a lot for LFI? Currently, the "far right" is really weak in Wallonia. However, I'm pretty sure the National Rally would, after a few years, attract a lot of people who previously voted for wallonian left wing parties like the Socialist Party and the Worker's Party Of Belgium.
Do you disagree?

[Zinneke]

Would you agree that if Wallonia becomes one day part of France, the region would vote a lot for LFI? Currently, the "far right" is really weak in Wallonia. However, I'm pretty sure the National Rally would, after a few years, attract a lot of people who previously voted for wallonian left wing parties like the Socialist Party and the Worker's Party Of Belgium.
Do you disagree?

hmmm. First thing is that while Wallonia is often defined by its industrial belt, there’s also Brabant Wallon, Luxembourg and within the Industrial Belt there’s a lot of variation. It's not a carbon copy of Pas-de-Calais.

The arguments for RN doing well in Wallonia are basically reliant on all the clientelist and cadre networks in the Industrial Belt being eradicated, trade union membership going down, etc. It’s true that polling has shown that Marine Le Pen would be a popular ‘presidential’ candidate, but what people don’t realise is that even Walloon voters in the Walloon Industrial Belt who tend to agree with things like tough on (islamic) immigration, they don’t see it as salient enough to alter their reflex PS/PTB vote. If those networks are maintained then RN won’t get far, but would probably at least do better than the far right jokes who have stood in Wallonia (Modrikamen, Nation, Laurent Louis).

Whether preservation of clientelistic or trade union membership transfers to LFI is a matter of LFI’s ground game. Such a personalist movement actually probably wouldn’t be able to replicate the Walloon PS in terms of ground game as the latter would likely baulk at the idea of becoming stooges to the Mélenchon personality cult. At the same time alter-globalism, as evidenced by attitudes towards CETA/TTIP, political ecology, etc, is really hegemonic in the Walloon Industrial Belt. And LFI hit the right “village gaulois” buttons.

The thing is, I can only see Wallonia joining France if the EU collapses and the Walloon state fails or goes bust. In that case all bets are off and there is probably such anger that the clientelist systems and Overton window of discourse as a whole shifts. The Wallonia going bust scenario is becoming more and more likely : Federation Wallonie-Bruxelles is already effectively bust and Wallonia looks set to go into a situation worse than Greece. The PS internal strategy is clear : an alliance with N-VA at the federal level giving them a final, confederal state reform, in exchange (paradoxically) for cold, hard cash transfers to keep the PS machine going for just a little bit more time for the money laundering projects like the new Mons station to be completed. I doubt it will work. Wallonia will collapse.

[DavidB.]

I completely get the N-VA/PS thing. But what are the benefits behind the rapprochement of N-VA and Vooruit for both parties?

I doubt it will work. Wallonia will collapse.

How so? Flemish money could make it run until infinity. And in the end the Flemish socialists, liberals and Christian Democrats seem too risk-averse/don't-rock-the-boat to ever pull the plug.

[Zinneke]

I completely get the N-VA/PS thing. But what are the benefits behind the rapprochement of N-VA and Vooruit for both parties?

I doubt it will work. Wallonia will collapse.

How so? Flemish money could make it run until infinity. And in the end the Flemish socialists, liberals and Christian Democrats seem too risk-averse/don't-rock-the-boat to ever pull the plug.

Tbh I don't think it makes much electoral sense for the N-VA. But I think De Wever is tired of CD&V and Open VLD's hold on certain portfolios they traditionally demand (a lot like in the Netherlands, certain ministries are run by certain parties out of habit or demands from certain lobbies). Getting N-VA politicians in traditional right-wing portfolio's is sort of his last hurrah and helps get them the right sort of attention.

For Vooruit it allows them to subscribe to the Danish Social Democrat trend of tough on immigration and that's pretty much the only way they get to anywhere near Stevaert levels. It really gives them an opening to contrast themselves with Groen a bit more, after also criticising Groen for harming working class people with things like not cutting VAT on energy bills.


But look, the first time N-VA were in government in Flanders, they ruled with sp.a, and De Wever governs with Vooruit in Antwerp. Something seems to work between them. The whole "schuld van de sossen" meme is a bit outdated now on the Flemish Right, the real pariah are the Greens and VLD, who De Wever personally has a big grudge against due to Vivaldi negotiations.


Wallonia will not get infinite Flemish money : most of the transfers have actually been agreed to be phased out with the notable exception of social security (which will go next election I think). Wallonia basically survives off cheap interest rates though, and of every euro collected in tax something like 48 cents goes to servicing debt. Its finances are a total mess and if the ECB has the cojones to raise the interest rates that's not going to get any better. I should stress, by collapse, I meant we could see a sort of slow decay of public services…already for example public transport is starting to be gutted, but Di Rupo got his white Elephant project at Mons. Health is still quality, but other things like roads, city infrastructure, policing will all just slowly decay. It's a shame it doesn't get more scrutiny from the feckless journalistic class in Wallonia. It isn't a left-right issue, Wallonia could run quality public services if it used EU funds for something else than Eurotunnel-esque projects.

We're heading for a state reform anyway and Belgian Francophones have to decide how to reduce expenses. They could do what Flanders did and merge regional and community competences but outside of pure greed (more mandates to distribute - earning that 14k net) it's also a thorny issue to merge Brussels and Wallonia under one administration for certain competences, as well as whatever happens with Ostbelgien.  I think we're heading for a 4 region, quasi confederal model. But if the Nazbols get a federal anti-majority (13 seats to that remember) who knows. VB-NVA government in Flanders, Red-Red-Green in Wallonia. Bumpy ride guaranteed

[Zinneke]

MR and Open VLD have had to put out a joint statement on their websites saying that they are still friends, after Lachaert came out guns blazing saying some of the criticism of MR of the Belgian government (for which MR has been a part of for 22 years) was “what we expect from Vlaams Belang”.

Bless. But it feels like the kind of press release a football club’s board releases to “fully back” the underperforming manager.

What a cucked political family.

[Zinneke]

New polls out, this is what the seat distribution would look like at the federal level

note that Hainaut and Liège are to lose a seat each to Brussels and Namur.

[Zanas]

Could you explain what are "Les Engagés" and "Vooruit" ? I had never heard of them before. (granted, I haven't been following much for a while)

[Polteaghost]

Les Engagés is cdH, which changed name again to try to halt their decline. Vooruit is sp.a, which has become harsher on immigration (nearly mandatory to get something in Flanders).

[FrancoAgo]

Just a curiosity why orientale and occidentale? and not eastern and western

[Zinneke]

Just a curiosity why orientale and occidentale? and not eastern and western

That's eastern and western in French...

[Zinneke]

François De Smet was re-elected as Défi leader this weekend. Not many voters. He had two challengers that seemed pretty symbolic (one who probably thinks De Smet is too Le Soir liberal, the other a crank from Défi Wallonia. De Smet had the backing of the old barons like Clerfayt and even Maingain who was heavily critical of his leadership. So it was a bit of a formality.

[omar04]

What explains the wealth gap between the poorer Wallonia and richer Flanders?

[FrancoAgo]

Just a curiosity why orientale and occidentale? and not eastern and western

That's eastern and western in French...

they are the same in italian

[Zinneke]

What explains the wealth gap between the poorer Wallonia and richer Flanders?

In broad strokes:


Flanders "skipped" industrialisation, with the exception of Limburg, and once the modern global economy developed it was able to specialise in white collar services and very high human capital industries like chemical industry, more high level agri. It's also very well situated geographically in modern global economy terms.

Wallonia had an industrial belt that dominates it demographically and this industrial belt, once one of the richest regions in the world, clung on heavily to preserving its outdated factories despite inevitably being undercut by cheaper foreign labour costs. Efforts to reinvest in new industries have fallen foul to misuse of said funds, but anyway as I keep saying, Flanders and Wallonia a bit of a poor choice of unit of analysis. If you take the provinces, Walloon Brabant is very much on par with Flanders in terms of wealth as is Luxemburg Province. Both these provinces benefit from proximity to significant European cities. And Flanders' proximity to Brussels plays a massive part in said economic development too. Most of Flemish productivity is from the Flemish losange, which would not have developed the way it did without essentially being a suburb of Brussels in global terms. Antwerp's status as the 3rd largest port in Europe at a time of global trade also helped - but I don't really bank on Flanders becoming what it is without Brussels becoming the EU capital. The country would have probably split anyway.


There's a bunch of other reasons to get into like education. N-VA think it's a Northern Vs Southern European thing and that the Walloon work ethic is lower than the Flemish one. Typical primordialist nationalist argument. But the Francophone education system is very outdated, underfunded, parochial and broken, and also I would say more classist and less meritocratic than the Flemish system.