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  Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019
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Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019  (Read 50475 times)
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #200 on: October 14, 2018, 03:14:25 pm »



Liberals declare victory, and they already say: Ghent will have their first liberal mayor in 60 years. Kind of surprising. Problem is only 70% is counted, and it's currently close. They might not have enough seats (if they lose one seat, it's not possible to have a centre-right coalition).
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #201 on: October 14, 2018, 03:22:09 pm »

I think sums it well. The media calls it a pyrrhic victory for the Greens in Flanders, especially in Antwerp. I've seen some remarkable reactions. The candidate for the Greens want to be in the coalition (but it's not possible without N-VA or VB), and they don't want to govern with N-VA. The chairman of the s.pa might have to step down as a political analyst have said.
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Heat
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« Reply #202 on: October 14, 2018, 03:24:00 pm »

The PS of Molenbeek didn't exclude a coalition with the PTB.


If Molenbeek PTB have any brains at all they'll stay the hell away.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #203 on: October 14, 2018, 03:44:50 pm »

The PS of Molenbeek didn't exclude a coalition with the PTB.


If Molenbeek PTB have any brains at all they'll stay the hell away.

I agree. I would also reject such a thing.

In Ghent, it seems like the centre-right coalition won't have enough after all... The liberals are now celebrating that they'll serve the next mayor. The candidate of the liberals has said: Ghent will have a liberal mayor after 60 years. I currently don't see it, how they could do that. It's currently very close though... They're still counting there, and it will be close until the last vote comes in. Who the next mayor will be might be decided by one vote there.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #204 on: October 14, 2018, 03:47:39 pm »

Would it be possible to have VB vote for the liberal candidate and to carry on with a minority government, or would it be seen as a violation of the cordon sanitaire? I imagine that this would be especially controversial in Gent of all places...
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #205 on: October 14, 2018, 03:55:16 pm »

Would it be possible to have VB vote for the liberal candidate and to carry on with a minority government, or would it be seen as a violation of the cordon sanitaire? I imagine that this would be especially controversial in Gent of all places...

No not possible. That would hurt the standings of those political parties on the long run, and cause the left to win back again in 2024 and possibly also nationally next year, because Ghent is one of the most watched elections. The CD&V is also centre-left in Ghent and i don't think DeClercq would even accept such a thing, but coalition talks might be difficult. I imagine after his speech this evening a coalition between s.pa-Groen and Open VLD would hurt Open VLD Ghent. Although when he doesn't make it, he will most likely just step down and retire from local politics. It's very close, but the result is very important as it might decide his political future. It could be dependant on just a few votes.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #206 on: October 14, 2018, 03:56:55 pm »
« Edited: October 14, 2018, 04:09:52 pm by DavidB. »

Clear, thanks for your answer!

Apparently De Wever has referred to certain party members at his party event as his 'shield and his friends', mocking the Schlild & Vrienden scandal. LOL.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #207 on: October 14, 2018, 04:19:21 pm »

Really what's the point of the N-VA existing if the VB doesn't stay dead?
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Heat
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« Reply #208 on: October 14, 2018, 04:31:03 pm »

Really what's the point of the N-VA existing if the VB doesn't stay dead?
To be a disturbingly earnest tribute act to the Tories?
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #209 on: October 14, 2018, 04:34:51 pm »

They now lack two seats to form a coalition. The liberal candidate might regret that speech he made a few hours ago.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #210 on: October 14, 2018, 04:38:54 pm »
« Edited: October 14, 2018, 04:42:51 pm by coloniac »

Really what's the point of the N-VA existing if the VB doesn't stay dead?

I think the first thing we need to remember is that the 43% N-VA vote - and thus VB's collapse - in Flanders in 2014 might not be replicated for a while. It was a historic result largely because some ardent VB nationalists may have seen it as putting a final nail in the Belgian coffin, and bring the debate back on their patch. And VB's 10% gained immediately back is from the N-VA, which given VB had strong results before, suggests the switch of these voters in 2014 was never meant as permanent.

Then there's that whole thing about the N-VA being a party of government. They've been in power for a while now at the Flemish level. They still act in the media as an opposition party and they're still blaming the sossen for pretty much everything but inevitably people protest vote in a different manner once they see the same faces in government.

EDIT : Looks like MR will at least get to keep Uccle. Boris Dillies has found an agreement with cdH and ECOLO.

Clear, thanks for your answer!

Apparently De Wever has referred to certain party members at his party event as his 'shield and his friends', mocking the Schlild & Vrienden scandal. LOL.



His not mocking the scandal, he's mocking them. He hates the neo-nazis in his party.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #211 on: October 14, 2018, 04:45:24 pm »
« Edited: October 14, 2018, 05:01:20 pm by Lakigigar »

Apparently, insiders have said that the cartel in Ghent will break. Greens will probably leave the cartel, and get in a coalition with CD&V and Open VLD. This is why DeClercq was so overly confident that Ghent would get a liberal mayor.

EDIT: Others have said that because he had most preference votes, the current coalition will continue but with DeClercq as mayor because he has most preference votes, and because socialists know they currently lack a strong person to lead the city / country.

VLD can even get in a coalition with only the Greens in Ghent, cause from the cartel, the Greens have 14 seats and s.pa 7 seats. This of course explains a lot more. After all it doesn't seem like the greens weren't that loyal.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #212 on: October 15, 2018, 05:00:26 am »
« Edited: October 15, 2018, 05:06:08 am by coloniac »

So Di Rupo, Rudy Demotte (ex president of the federation WalloBrux) and André Flahaut (ex-Minister of Defence, budget minister) all "lost" their mayoralities to young PS usurpers, although in the former two cases it appears to have been deliberately engineered by the PS to get Di Rupo and Demotte to run in a year's time at Regional/Federal/EU level. But its a general part of the strategy of renewal, and it appears a lot of PS dissidents did well on the lower parts of their lists.


cdH also held on to Namur-citywhile PS, their main challengers, got spanked there, losing 9 seats. Same coalition as before (cdH-ECOLO-MR) to govern a city with strange electoral trends (the only major city cdH has the mayorality outside Luxemburg; Défi and PTB at 8%).

The way the system works in Wallonia is that the person who gets the highest preference votes of the parties in the coalition is mayor by law.

This is what the electoral map looks like for the provincials by electoral district :


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Lakigigar
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« Reply #213 on: October 15, 2018, 02:45:25 pm »

Results for PVDA-PTB:



city - number of seats - percentage of vote
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DavidB.
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« Reply #214 on: October 15, 2018, 04:12:45 pm »

Why did the PVDA perform so well in Zelzate?
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #215 on: October 15, 2018, 05:21:28 pm »

Why did the PVDA perform so well in Zelzate?

They always do. It's a traditional stronghold of them. It's an industrial city where the PVDA has a strong local base. They're being called "the doctors". It has some working-class quarters (like Little Russia) and it also houses a metal company Arcelor Mittal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dQz1Rn6SlM

This was in a period when they were more radical and the first time they've won 20% of the vote was in 2006. They've repeated those results in 2012 and in 2018. Many people are also angry with the current ruling parties here, and have said the PVDA is a genuine party, and has some good proposals. The party could even convince some rich people in businessman i've read in an article before. If anything, the result was a bit disappointing, because i thought the PVDA could grow a bit there. But there are coalition talks right now between s.pa and PVDA there, because s.pa (the big winner) has said they want to drop the current incumbent and his party + PVDA have enough seats to form a coalition together.



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Lechasseur
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« Reply #216 on: October 15, 2018, 05:23:12 pm »

Results for PVDA-PTB:



city - number of seats - percentage of vote

Well, I see the PTB had a strong result in my former hometown. Interesting but not surprising.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #217 on: October 15, 2018, 05:41:58 pm »



Also, the satirical joke party Pokémon List has done really well in the provincial council elections. It performed much better than the immigrant parties (VMC and MRP) in this provincial district (which includes Ghent), and the joke party could convince 6834 voters.
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
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« Reply #218 on: October 16, 2018, 11:15:05 am »

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2018/10/16/nationalists-will-not-be-entering-into-coalition-talks-with-forz/

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There has been controversies among several alleged nazi-greets during the victory celebration and among racist posts being made on facebook several years ago.
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Umengus
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« Reply #219 on: October 16, 2018, 03:21:06 pm »

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2018/10/16/nationalists-will-not-be-entering-into-coalition-talks-with-forz/

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There has been controversies among several alleged nazi-greets during the victory celebration and among racist posts being made on facebook several years ago.

-it was not nazi-greets.

https://www.7sur7.be/7s7/fr/1502/Belgique/article/detail/3486844/2018/10/16/Non-le-Vlaams-Belang-n-a-pas-fete-sa-victoire-par-un-salut-nazi.dhtml

-to be honest, I don't understand the chocomousse-post facebook.

It's important to note that NVA will not support an anti-Vlaams belang coalitie in Ninove. But wihtout NVA support, no majority for anyone. So imbroglio...



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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
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« Reply #220 on: October 16, 2018, 03:45:12 pm »
« Edited: October 16, 2018, 03:54:48 pm by Lakigigar »

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2018/10/16/nationalists-will-not-be-entering-into-coalition-talks-with-forz/

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There has been controversies among several alleged nazi-greets during the victory celebration and among racist posts being made on facebook several years ago.

-it was not nazi-greets.

https://www.7sur7.be/7s7/fr/1502/Belgique/article/detail/3486844/2018/10/16/Non-le-Vlaams-Belang-n-a-pas-fete-sa-victoire-par-un-salut-nazi.dhtml

-to be honest, I don't understand the chocomousse-post facebook.

It's important to note that NVA will not support an anti-Vlaams belang coalitie in Ninove. But wihtout NVA support, no majority for anyone. So imbroglio...

That's a personal opinion. I wasn't there, so i can't confirm it, but i'm just repeating what the media said. Of course the right will always tell that the media is left-wing and fake. The nationalist chairman have at least strongly condemned the photo (and said it was disgusting). I don't understand the joke, because i don't see the fun in it. Might things be overblown, possibly.

The media is biased towards us as well. We're never invited on debates or talkshows. We're being silenced. The media frames things differently. When we do something good, they don't mention it. They organize a smear campaign against the far-right, and they silence us. You know, i bet more than 50% of Flemish people have never heard about the PVDA-PTB. It's that bad. Check the Flanders News website, and check the coverage about the election. Other (international & independent) media have said we're one of the winners of the elections or even "the winner", but we're not mentioned on their website, when they talk about the Brussels or the Flemish elections. They just talk about the Green successes or how the N-VA has failed to make a breakthrough in Brussels, but that the PVDA-PTB won 10% and went to 10-15% on average in Brussels, is of course not important enough or doesn't fit the agenda of the media in which they prefer to focus on the Green successes.

proof:
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2018/10/15/so-who-won-the-election/
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2018/10/14/greens-advance-across-the-brussels-region/#/10/1/21004/percentages

Ask a /belgium reddit-er, who won the elections, and they'll say far-left, greens and far-right.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #221 on: October 16, 2018, 07:11:22 pm »

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2018/10/10/vrt-probe-reveals-true-face-of-rightist-organisation/

The S&V scandal with english subtitles.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #222 on: October 16, 2018, 07:34:55 pm »
« Edited: October 16, 2018, 07:38:23 pm by DavidB. »

The impact of the scandal on the N-VA in the runup to the election has been non-negligible, no doubt about it. But the framing in the Pano documentary was incredible and the subsequent witchhunt was astounding to me. Every private political chat group in which insiders in political organizations talk strategy with each other contains content that is "embarrassing" and should not be shown publicly. There were almost 200 people in the S&V Discord group (way too many and a serious error on DVL's part to post sensitive content in such a group). Almost all of them were pretty right-wing and so it is no surprise that a lot of politically incorrect memes were shared. Some of them were disgusting, no doubt about it, but it takes either a boomer or a completely dishonest left-wing journalist to think the content of these memes necessarily reflects the way these people truly think. The subsequent witchhunt by the media and even DVL's university almost seemed orchestrated, and the idea that DVL would be both responsible for and fully supportive of the content of all offensive memes in the Discord group is absurd. The police investigation, including a police visit to DVL's parents' house, can only be viewed as an attempt to scare off patriotic youth: "don't be a nationalist activist, because you'll get in trouble." Almost totalitarian.

This rebuttal was spot on, in my view.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #223 on: October 16, 2018, 08:59:05 pm »
« Edited: October 16, 2018, 09:04:26 pm by Lakigigar »

It did surprise me though that groups like S&V didn't lose popularity, and seemed to have even increased their popularity, probably mostly among VB and Theo Francken supporters. There might have been some framing in the PANO documentary, i give you that, but the S&V video's were also highly framed. I mean it's a case of the pot calling the kettle black. Their meeting with Orban, their action on the Gravensteen and their video's explaining the VRT framing were all framed as well. I'm not surprised about the memes (who were not made by them, but just shared, even though DVL claims he didn't made the memes, but that's not the point, the memes were shared in their group"). But what did frighten me were their plans of infriltating key organizations (their so-called "long march through the instutions"), body cult, glorifying nazism & sexism, posing with guns that shocked me. Yes, they've made the mistake by opening such a group to 200 people (esp. with such sensitive content), but it's just pretty disgusting, and it shows us how dangerous men like these are, especially DVL.

I agree that lots of private political chat groups will contain content that will be embarassing, but i doubt it would be this extreme. But it's a reminder that people will need to be a bit more careful with what they post online. Decades ago, people could just tell controversial or racist stuff against each other, but when you place it online today, you'll be crucified. It's similar to how teenagers might be confronted with nudist photo's they've made off theirselves and post on snapchat or message to people and than regret about it (that used to be different, times "change"). But there is still a difference between one or some racist comments and the 60.000 racist memes (incl. some neo-nazist memes) they've found online, and i doubt VRT would lie about that number. I'm not sure whether the approach of the VRT wasn't the right one, and there was definitely a political agenda behind it, but they've called it on theirselves and it's pretty naive and stupid handling of S&V that caused them to get publically crucified. I can understand more moderate right-wingers or N-VA supporters to be angry about this, or that the VRT would be called very biased about this. I mean terms like "fake media" are getting more & more popular, and while there is a political strategy behind it ("illegitamizing their claims and content by repeating it as often"), they've a point that some media isn't neutral, very biased and a danger to us, but it would be pretty naive to think that the same doesn't apply to other media like FOX that might be more approving of their politics. The best approach might be the middle-on-the-road one on this, but it isn't a clear and easy ethical issue to deal with. It definitely has worsened over the last 20 years as well. I might give you an example: a tv-series like Friends or (a Belgian example) F.C. De Kampioenen wouldn't been possible anymore because the content of it would be too sexist for current-era norms. I'm a bit torn between "the big brother is watching you"-society and "it's shocking that there are still people who basically want to resurrect nazism from the ashes and have so much success with it because they have political talent". They both frighten me a lot.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #224 on: October 17, 2018, 04:11:05 am »

S&V definitely engage in framing themselves, but I think there is a difference between a political organization (which S&V is, even though they call themselves 'metapolitical') presenting itself in the best possible way - which is something all political organizations do - and a documentary by a public broadcaster broadcasting a documentary clearly aimed at portraying said political movement in the worst possible way by using framing techniques - the music, the continuous use of the word 'secret' rather than 'private' groups, the insinuations...

A political organization seeking to have as many people as possible run for and be elected to offices in which people exert power is not 'infiltration', it is part of the political game played by every serious political actor. The term 'infiltration' was a frame too.

Otherwise: no doubt some of the memes were extremely tasteless (the Holocaust isn't funny), and no doubt they made a serious mistake by saying such things in a Discord group with almost 200 people. They partly have themselves to blame. But I don't think S&V are neo-Nazis. They're nationalists who dislike the establishment, like edginess and, because they are all young men, like the competition of who can think of the most edgy and controversial things. Which is not smart and an extremely bad look when it becomes public (and they have themselves to blame for it), but a serious threat to anybody or to democracy it is not. And something tells me Pano is more interested in unveiling supposed scandals on the right than on the left or in Islamist circles.
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