Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For Party leadership posts? Certainly not, but then Belgian politicians are a remarkably mercenary bunch so it does not come as a shock...

[Zinneke]

Belgian politicians love to a) create mandates out of thin air (see the first post of the previous page) and b) hog them all to themselves. So a politician like Magnette occupies not only the double wammy of Charleroi Mayor and PS President but will also likely be on the board of several NGOs or companies. Another example is how Bernard Clerfayt is mayor in Absentia of Schaerbeek while being a Brussels minister. So he wears two caps and switches accordingly, this week he criticised his own government that he sits in for putting the Flixbus station of Brussels at the Schaerbeek side of Gare du Nord. A lot of them also continue to practice law while being elected officials.

Cumuleo is a website founded by a guy who tracks the cumulation of mandates of Belgian politicians :

https://www.cumuleo.be/

1.084.467 mandats exercés par 30.598 politiciens et hauts fonctionnaires depuis 2004

1,084,467 mandates exercised by 30,598 politicians and senior civil servants since 2004

Are Belgian politicians superhuman? Can they be working at several places at the same time? Well no you see, Magnette for example is only Mayor of Charleroi in absentia (he was also hilariously elected as an MEP technically then immediately left that mandate to let another take it - its a campaign trick to allow him to cover the whole country mediatically).

But also politicians and especially ministers have massively oversized cabinets that work around them. Usually a British politician will on average have one or two "spads" - a Belgian minister will likely have around 20-30, but sometimes it can go up to statospheric levels. These cabinets are filled with party apparatchiks : some of whom also cumulate! - see this week's latest conflict of interest scandal where a Minister affording contract to the Belgian Post (bpost) has 2 employees in her cabinet that are also Bpost employees :

https://www.lalibre.be/belgique/politique-belge/2023/05/03/deux-collaborateurs-du-cabinet-de-petra-de-sutter-remuneres-par-bpost-P6QL7MOLI5BNLGA23XFLTYNBSY/

The parties themselves are able to fund this because they are incredibly rich entities, essentially allowed to for example buy and sell property. The Belgian political parties, if they were entities, would be valued at upwards of 20 million in assets. And they continue to receive public money, that small parties are unable to get :

https://trends.levif.be/a-la-une/politique-economique/jamais-les-partis-politiques-belges-nont-ete-aussi-riches/

N-VA : 34,9 millions

PS : 16,6 millions

Vlaams Belang : 15,4 millions

MR : 13,6 millions

CD&V : 13,4 millions

Vooruit, PVDA/PTB, Ecolo: environ 11 millions d’euros chacun

Les Engagés (ancien CDH) : aussi environ 11 millions d’euros, mais il faut là-dedans la vente de leur siège pour 4,4 millions.

Open VLD :9,8 millions

Groen: 6,9 millions

Défi : 562 000.

 And then N-VA, a relatively new party, are now are basically an Antwerp real estate company that through close links with Ghelamco and another real estate broker and former cocaine addict called Erik Van Der Paal, are able to generate massive profit via dodgy deals, rigging urban planning rules and pots de vins. Incidentally, N-VA defended a PS elected official with close links to Van Der Paal, Alain Mathot, who as mayor of Seraing accepted bribes from a company to give them the contract for the Herstal incinerator. So it's all cross party incestuousness, as everyone profits from everyone else shutting up with the occasional feigning of indignation, save PTB.


But anyway we're going deep into the rabbit hole about how acutely corrupt the country is. The point is that accumulating mandates is how they earn so much, and despite some limits and massive political pressure to end cumulation, they will likely keep circumventing this as they did with their pension schemes. This is the first time though I have seen a wave of genuine indignation over actual amounts paid and for example the ministerial salary at 14k netto. And we probably have PTB/PVDA to thank for that.

[Logical]

I don't remember who said it first, but Belgium is one the few places in the world that would be improved under Sharia law.

[Zinneke]

Cabinet/spads per minister

Not surprised to see that fat lazy feckless bastard Vervoort have 83 people scuttling around actually doing his bidding.

Incidentally a Brussels parliamentarian from Groen came out with an interview announcing he was stopping as a an elected official because he realised that if you're a parliamentarian in the end you don't do much other that participate in the artifice of it all : you'll maybe have an original idea but it will be instantly taken by one of the "cabinnetards" and presented as the Minister's policy.

[DavidB.]

Absolutely crazy, thanks for these insights into this system of network corruption.

I don't remember who said it first, but Belgium is one the few places in the world that would be improved under Sharia law.

Nah. Belgian beer is the most important redeeming feature.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/PDelwit/status/1657303789873815552

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1657303734852960256

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1657304183215734784

Good for us!

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The one after the other Flemish green politician are announcing they'll stop with national politics. Basically all of the well known national faces are ending their political careers, or chosing for local politics. Political experts think this is a result because of the bad polls and the anticipation that the Greens will lose badly in the upcoming elections. There is also a cap on how long a Green politician can take a seat in parliament, according to statute, however, politicians can ask for exceptions which is frequently done usually, but apparently not for this time.

The list so far includes:
Bjorn Rzoska
Kristof Calvo
Elisabeth Meuleman
An Moerenhout
Barbara Creemers
Juan Benjumea

The Greens - sitting in the government - have had to endure a lot of attacks, including the gaffes, the poor management and unlucky timing of having the Secretary of Energy Affairs (while energy prices were soaring) in the cabinet. Recently the transgender politician Petra De Sutter (secretary of postal affairs) also came under fire due to a postal affairs scandal).

On the French-speaking side, one month ago, Sarah Schlitz also announced that she would resign from the government as Secretary of State for Gender Equality, Equal Opportunity and Diversity after coming under fire by the right wing opposition.

Media have noticed that all politicians in the government who resigned after controversies have arisen were all without exceptions women. (Sec for budget Eva De Bleecker, Sec for diversity Sarah Schlitz, Sec for urban policy and development cooperation Meryame Kitir) while the ones under attack for stuff also have been woman (Secretary of Foreign Affairs Hadja Lahbib for a vacation trip to Crimea last summer and Secretary for postal affairs Petra De Sutter).

Tinne Van der Straeten (Green) - Minister of Energy - meanwhile has very low approval ratings because of criticism on her energy policy and questionable media appearances.

So far media are talking about "The Green Exodus", in part because of poor polling despite the tendency to overpoll in Belgian polls.

[Zinneke]

I think it's a case that you get with a lot of Green parties due to their sociological profile and the way they perceive meritocracy : they tend to over-promote good activists thinking they will be good ministers. Schlitz and Alain Maron* in ECOLO for example earned their spurs because they were good activists, but anyone could probably see that they didn't have the energy levels or experience for a Ministerial portfolio. ECOLO has many people within their ranks far smarter and more understanding of nuance than those to elevate up to ministerial positions. I imagine a lot of the Groen MPs who are resigning are exasperated too, at seeing caricatures elevated to TV screens rather than actual experts.

I'd say they and the liberal family are the two most likely to be in crisis next election. Internal disputes in MR are now rife as it seems Louis Michel is slowly starting to tire of his rebellious pawn. Also there are big tensions between Open VLD and MR due to Bertrand taking up a Ministry and mocking Bouchez in the process, as well as the way MR are now very unwanted by many actors for the next negotiation.

The Vivaldi was a huge mistake - it is barely functioning as a coalition anymore. But at least it made clear who the partiocracy are and who are not (I'd still obviously include Les Engagés and Défi as traditional parties). That all these people are just one blob that deserve the rise of extremists.


* whose reform of the garbage collection system in Brussels is not going down well at all

[PSOL]

If the PTB-PVDA ruins their one chance of government takeover by aligning with PS at any level, then they are done as a party. The cordone sanitare, along with the confederal nonsense, is the only thing making them popular as unifiers not tainted by the mafias.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If the PTB-PVDA ruins their one chance of government takeover by aligning with PS at any level, then they are done as a party. The cordone sanitare, along with the confederal nonsense, is the only thing making them popular as unifiers not tainted by the mafias.

Federal level is never gonna happen, at least not soon. Neither is Flemish level.

Walloon level, perhaps, but I think PS prefers Ecolo, Les Engages and maybe even MR over PTB.

Mayoral, it might happen but it did not happen last time (in Wallonia). In some occassions PTB was indeed afraid of getting tainted of governing in some cities, including the city Molenbeek which came to fame after the terrorist attacks of both Brussels and Paris were organized and prepared there (which is a good choice i think). Also, the quality of candidates aligning with PTB there might not be great.

It did happen in Borgerhout (a district in Antwerp) and Zelzate, but both are located in Flanders. And PVDA use these two areas to highlight competence of the party while governing.

PS will prevent coöperation with PTB because it weakens them or legitimates PTB as a left wing alternative. However they're losing the battle for the unions, especially the Flemish socdems seem to abandon the labor unions which PVDA is taking over right now.

[Zinneke]

Yeah the PS are really stuck right now because on the one hand MR is very very hard to deal with and makes them lose a lot of votes, on the other hand PTB are an existential threat to them as they've targeted FGTB grassroots and also threaten the whole partiocratic system that arguably the PS profit the most from in the way they carve up sectoral interests in Wallonia.

I really think PTB will remain a testimonial party for a while though, and that isn't necessarily a bad thing. They are a very effective "chien de garde" of Belgian politics.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

New poll for Belgium, showing Flanders here, i guess when Europe elects post an update i'll post it here as well.

Should be a record high for PVDA in Flanders and again up compared to last poll.

Should also be a record low (or at least since long) for Open VLD in Flanders.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1667220644344283161

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1667220835176726555

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1667220968526233603

[LAKISYLVANIA]

[PSOL]

Well, we now know that grand coalitions are killer for any political movement. Of course Lenin and Marx understood this, which is why they kept political independence and ran a lengthy propaganda campaign during the First International and early 1900s against reformists and other tendencies.

PTB-PVDA is perhaps the only movement in the western world to actually follow through with this and maintain relevance by staying the course and being attuned to reality.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

This makes me happy

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Compared to last time the poll was held in Flanders, the movement & trend.

Drops for christian democrats, liberals and far right
Increases for marxists and socdems.
Status quo basically for greens and national conservatives.

Issues recently were corruption, pensions and the process of the death of a student during a student baptist event, which led to class justice allegiations by communists.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

May Day: Labour Party repeats call for millionaire’s tax

Parliament urges investigation into Sanda Dia case

Federal Secretary of State resigns after row about misuse of her personal logo

Socialist supremo sticks by proposal to limit unemployment benefit



Hedebouw (PVDA-PTB) is now the most popular politician in french-speaking Belgium.

https://twitter.com/EmbaCubaUS/status/1666466905727594497

https://twitter.com/hem_day/status/1639278595393609731

https://twitter.com/broderly/status/1654515855219126272

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/SchelfhoutSven/status/1650452027724505088

Also, this was revealed PVDA who attacked all parties who were in parliament at the time (which was basically everyone), and they all voted for it.

A big reason for PVDAs surge in Flanders is this scandal a month ago.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I read this in the newspaper, and i don't know how much of it is cherrypicking in trying to create the idea that the liberals are losing rapidly ground in their historic strongholds, but these people are upset by the lack of right wing policies pursued by Open VLD.

https://twitter.com/SchelfhoutSven/status/1650452027724505088

Icon Herman De Croo also has been caught in the previous scandal and was one of the people who gave himself a 20% spot of their pension and used that for instance to give everyone in a bar a free round (with their taxpayers money).

The strongest OVLD local chapter is thinking of changing their party name to a different name due to general toxicity associated with the liberal brand.

The article in english (and under paywall, but i read it in the paper version that my mom has)

Out and about in the blue bastion of Flanders: "I always voted VLD, but now: never again"

In the local headquarters of the party, no one calls themselves liberal, the liberal mayor is considering not going to vote under 'Open VLD', and only one party is talking about the tongues of the prime minister's baker: Vlaams Belang. Even in the blue bastion of Flanders, the liberals get the wind from the front.

Maybe the rural demographic shifts are more of a global thing, not just in the USA.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

There is panic in the national chapter as there was an emergency meeting. The general point of belief is: "we serve the Prime Minister, we took our responsability to govern the country, how are we being blamed for everything, we are doing a good job".

https://twitter.com/hem_day/status/1667444388992000002

As a result, they're not trying to distance themselves from the government they're leading

https://twitter.com/MetaJaunNews/status/1667845555458801664

[Zinneke]

Alexia Bertrand epitomizes VLD though : from a well-to-do family (one of the richest in Belgium), while also lecturing others on meritocracy and hard work. It would be better served becoming a pale imitation of D66 but it will likely just go the way of every other Flemish right party and try to outflank VB...don't see the point of it as long as N-VA exists. De Wever is partially right that there are too many parties in Flanders, the problem is he wants to implement an Orban-style electoral system with VB as his Jobbik.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I used to not understand why VLD gets so many votes, but maybe people are finally understanding theirselves what my issues have been with this party for such a long time. Also i feel like "parties for freedom" or parties that emphasize freedom eventually abandon freedom in circumstances such as the covid pandemic where we still see damage from, on mental healthcare etc. They try to say that our economic issues aren't as bad as in rest of Europe, but really the only reason why that is the case is because some countries simply do it worse and because we were one of the least reliant nations within Europe on Russian gas.

With issues such as the outcome of the Sanda Dia lawsuit case with allegiations of class justice and the pension scandal to politicians of self-enrichment, its maybe natural that VLD is facing the consequences of these. I suppose that especially in their rural strongholds they have a steep decline of people moving to right wing parties. We might elsewhere make gains on the right wing: PVDA and probably Connor's Rousseau/Vooruits increasing immigrant and working class bashing also does wondering for them, inspired by Mette Frederiksen.

We now have a liberal party that is not liberal and a socialist party that is not socialist.

[JimJamUK]

With issues such as the outcome of the Sanda Dia lawsuit case with allegiations of class justice and the pension scandal to politicians of self-enrichment, its maybe natural that VLD is facing the consequences of these. I suppose that especially in their rural strongholds they have a steep decline of people moving to right wing parties. We might elsewhere make gains on the right wing: PVDA and probably Connor's Rousseau/Vooruits increasing immigrant and working class bashing also does wondering for them, inspired by Mette Frederiksen.

We now have a liberal party that is not liberal and a socialist party that is not socialist.

What does this actually involve? From the outside they just look a bit weird, but the polls suggest it’s working electorally so maybe not.