Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[Zinneke]

Paul Magnette is on a roll, declaring his interest in the PM job (that DebCroo Jnr worked hard with Daddy's money and contact book to get) and now saying Flemish people like to work hard and Walloons like to enjoy life more, is that such a problem lulz

Yes, Paul, that will surely help community relations and not reinforce stereotypes on both sides of the linguistic border. Go back to your French talkshows you corrupt clown.

New  state reform for Flanders, they'll add 15 regions.

I live in South-West Flanders or Zuid-West Vlaanderen. And in the past only lived here or in Vlaamse Ardennen / Flemish Ardennes.

And what exactly will these regions add? Seems insane when you already have the federal level, the Flemish level, the provinces, and the municipalities.

They allow for more jobs for the boys/housewife, but I secretly hope they all become autonomous communes in a post-apocalyptic scénario.

[Zinneke]

The ex-MR Minister for the Budget Jean-Luc Crucke has decided to join Les Engagés. First big coup for Prévôt since the rebranding of his party, who also wanted to make a cartel or merger with Défi too but failed.

MR slowly getting squeezed in the center. Crucke is especially important in the Tournai-Ath circonscription where MR would look to siphon votes from dissafected more high income PS voters.

[Zinneke]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenoitLutgen/status/1623641419666579456

Lutgen reminding everybody that what Les Engagés really is is a party for old demented peasants (and urban homophobes like Benoît Cerexhe who blocked a rainbow zebra crossing in East Brussels), who think Putin is a Communist.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Its like a right winger would say

WE MUST FIGHT AGAINST WOKE RADICALS LIKE PUTIN

[DavidB.]

Dries Van Langenhove announced he will resign from parliament. He was the Vlaams Belang spokesman on asylum and immigration and says the media boycott against him as a person hampered VB's potential to raise attention for the party's stance on this crucial issue. DVL's exit removes one of the main arguments for the N-VA against cooperation with VB after 2024. They still won't do it, but the obligatory ritual dance may now take a few more additional weeks.

[Umengus]

Dries Van Langenhove announced he will resign from parliament. He was the Vlaams Belang spokesman on asylum and immigration and says the media boycott against him as a person hampered VB's potential to raise attention for the party's stance on this crucial issue. DVL's exit removes one of the main arguments for the N-VA against cooperation with VB after 2024. They still won't do it, but the obligatory ritual dance may now take a few more additional weeks.

De Wever was strong recently about impose the autonomy of Flanders "extralegally".
and how to impose it without the voices of the vb? 
but in the end, it's mathematical.

[Zinneke]

Dries Van Langenhove announced he will resign from parliament. He was the Vlaams Belang spokesman on asylum and immigration and says the media boycott against him as a person hampered VB's potential to raise attention for the party's stance on this crucial issue. DVL's exit removes one of the main arguments for the N-VA against cooperation with VB after 2024. They still won't do it, but the obligatory ritual dance may now take a few more additional weeks.

De Wever was strong recently about impose the autonomy of Flanders "extralegally".
and how to impose it without the voices of the vb?  
but in the end, it's mathematical.

He's going to do it by ensuring federal structures no longer work properly. So essentially the federalised competences will be regionalised within the Federal ministry. He is right in pointing out this happened with culture and tourism before the state reforms handed it to the Communities.
De Wever is smart, he won't lose his marbles like the Catalans did when the Flemish are an actual majority.
The plan is always to ensure that a high VB score means the Vivaldi + Défi/cdH block has to accept at the very least N-VA in federal government.
His masterplan is a majority in the Brussels Flemish-speaking college and blocking the Brussels institutions to ensure the Francophones have much less footing in dictating what stays a federal competence and what doesn't.

The Francophone parties should call his bluff and ask for a double your money or nothing referendum with plebscites in the 7 majority speaking French communes. Checkmate to any people considering an "extralegal" way for Flanders to have its cake and eat it. But the Francophone parties won't do that, because what matters to them is mandates, ministerial cars, faux-Belgicist sentiment and their little sectoral battles.

I've made my feelings clear - I actually think we should at least try confederalism with certain very strong federal structures like the military. It is a much preferable outcome to the Vivaldist concoction. More important than ANY institutional reform though is removing the complacency of our political class and ensuring new parties are given equal footing in terms of media exposure, electoral system benefits them à la Netherlands, and so on. Once you remove the complacency of the political class, the corruption and kakonomical public services should subside.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Dries Van Langenhove announced he will resign from parliament. He was the Vlaams Belang spokesman on asylum and immigration and says the media boycott against him as a person hampered VB's potential to raise attention for the party's stance on this crucial issue. DVL's exit removes one of the main arguments for the N-VA against cooperation with VB after 2024. They still won't do it, but the obligatory ritual dance may now take a few more additional weeks.

De Wever was strong recently about impose the autonomy of Flanders "extralegally".
and how to impose it without the voices of the vb?  
but in the end, it's mathematical.

He's going to do it by ensuring federal structures no longer work properly. So essentially the federalised competences will be regionalised within the Federal ministry. He is right in pointing out this happened with culture and tourism before the state reforms handed it to the Communities.
De Wever is smart, he won't lose his marbles like the Catalans did when the Flemish are an actual majority.
The plan is always to ensure that a high VB score means the Vivaldi + Défi/cdH block has to accept at the very least N-VA in federal government.
His masterplan is a majority in the Brussels Flemish-speaking college and blocking the Brussels institutions to ensure the Francophones have much less footing in dictating what stays a federal competence and what doesn't.

The Francophone parties should call his bluff and ask for a double your money or nothing referendum with plebscites in the 7 majority speaking French communes. Checkmate to any people considering an "extralegal" way for Flanders to have its cake and eat it. But the Francophone parties won't do that, because what matters to them is mandates, ministerial cars, faux-Belgicist sentiment and their little sectoral battles.

I've made my feelings clear - I actually think we should at least try confederalism with certain very strong federal structures like the military. It is a much preferable outcome to the Vivaldist concoction. More important than ANY institutional reform though is removing the complacency of our political class and ensuring new parties are given equal footing in terms of media exposure, electoral system benefits them à la Netherlands, and so on. Once you remove the complacency of the political class, the corruption and kakonomical public services should subside.

S019 asked me what you meant, so correct me if i'm wrong

I think what you mean is that the Flemish nationalist (N-VA) deliberately try to make federal systems dysfunctional so that they can claim that the federal system doesn't work and that we need to go independent or have more autonomy, which in turn would allow them to pass more legislation given the dutch-speaking part is more conservative.

And secondly Zinneke calls the more centrist and Belgicist parties more corrupt or too occupied with theirselves and the status quo what makes them incapable of doing something about it, including infighting in the parties and among the centrist parties, in particular also because we have way too many political parties in the government who all need visibility and at times are fighting for their future. Ones dead, can be someones bread.

Party reform that would create a more and better landscape for new parties to rise up definitely, though the biggest gap currently is the Walloon right, which MR is trying to cover by being a big tent party on the right (being both liberal conservative or globalist liberal, but also increasingly trying to have a more Trumpist message), because there's simply no right wing opposition in french speaking Belgium. They are the ones that cover it.

Several small irrelevant right wing parties have been trying to get relevant, but all attempts so far have failed, a party that tried to mirror Le Pen failed, a party that tried to mirror themselves more to Vlaams Belang failed, a party that tried to be more right wing populist failed, a right wing split party from MR also failed. There simply is not much of a base, and voting right wing is seen as voting for Flanders or for splitting Belgium.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

New polls

[Zinneke]

Dries Van Langenhove announced he will resign from parliament. He was the Vlaams Belang spokesman on asylum and immigration and says the media boycott against him as a person hampered VB's potential to raise attention for the party's stance on this crucial issue. DVL's exit removes one of the main arguments for the N-VA against cooperation with VB after 2024. They still won't do it, but the obligatory ritual dance may now take a few more additional weeks.

De Wever was strong recently about impose the autonomy of Flanders "extralegally".
and how to impose it without the voices of the vb?  
but in the end, it's mathematical.

He's going to do it by ensuring federal structures no longer work properly. So essentially the federalised competences will be regionalised within the Federal ministry. He is right in pointing out this happened with culture and tourism before the state reforms handed it to the Communities.
De Wever is smart, he won't lose his marbles like the Catalans did when the Flemish are an actual majority.
The plan is always to ensure that a high VB score means the Vivaldi + Défi/cdH block has to accept at the very least N-VA in federal government.
His masterplan is a majority in the Brussels Flemish-speaking college and blocking the Brussels institutions to ensure the Francophones have much less footing in dictating what stays a federal competence and what doesn't.

The Francophone parties should call his bluff and ask for a double your money or nothing referendum with plebscites in the 7 majority speaking French communes. Checkmate to any people considering an "extralegal" way for Flanders to have its cake and eat it. But the Francophone parties won't do that, because what matters to them is mandates, ministerial cars, faux-Belgicist sentiment and their little sectoral battles.

I've made my feelings clear - I actually think we should at least try confederalism with certain very strong federal structures like the military. It is a much preferable outcome to the Vivaldist concoction. More important than ANY institutional reform though is removing the complacency of our political class and ensuring new parties are given equal footing in terms of media exposure, electoral system benefits them à la Netherlands, and so on. Once you remove the complacency of the political class, the corruption and kakonomical public services should subside.

S019 asked me what you meant, so correct me if i'm wrong

I think what you mean is that the Flemish nationalist (N-VA) deliberately try to make federal systems dysfunctional so that they can claim that the federal system doesn't work and that we need to go independent or have more autonomy, which in turn would allow them to pass more legislation given the dutch-speaking part is more conservative.

Yes, but to be clear, what De Wever means by "extralegal" means to confederalism is basically in the short term splitting the federal institution (that stays federal officially) in half and basically having two teams work on two communities. The strategy of defunding the federal institutions to make them ineffective is a long term plan for encourage Francophones to want a velvet divorce à la Czechoslovakia.

Party reform that would create a more and better landscape for new parties to rise up definitely, though the biggest gap currently is the Walloon right, which MR is trying to cover by being a big tent party on the right (being both liberal conservative or globalist liberal, but also increasingly trying to have a more Trumpist message), because there's simply no right wing opposition in french speaking Belgium. They are the ones that cover it.

Several small irrelevant right wing parties have been trying to get relevant, but all attempts so far have failed, a party that tried to mirror Le Pen failed, a party that tried to mirror themselves more to Vlaams Belang failed, a party that tried to be more right wing populist failed, a right wing split party from MR also failed. There simply is not much of a base, and voting right wing is seen as voting for Flanders or for splitting Belgium.

Yeah its been debated to death why the far right hasn't evolved in Wallonia. Disregarding the series of politically illiterate silk-scarved blockheads that have tried and the very specific egos that resulted in their failure, the structural reasons basically boil down to the media boycott of far-right parties (Leonie De Jonge is an academic who has worked on this) and the fact that the far right in Francophonia is more economically liberal and thus not a good fit

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Oh he definitelly has a referred a lot to Czechoslovakia as an ideal model for peaceful secession. I have heard that quite often on Flemish television.

[Zinneke]

Walloon government is on the brink of breaking up, looks like the PS have had enough of the Bouchez show after he blocked the formation of a Master in Mons University then accepted the same compromise that was offered after threats of alternative majorities to pass (yes this is the level of provincial cock fighting we are used to collapse governments here). The PS are also trying to distract from losing the Legoland project in Charleroi on the old Caterpillar factory site (that closed down after 18 million euros of subsidies tried to keep it open). Magnette needs a dead cat to distract from the fact that he didn't turn water into wine as he claims he has done with Charleroi.

Nuking Hainaut would rid us of the worse mafiosos, cities and political disputes at this stage. I'm so done with the whole Belgian project.

[DavidB.]

Wouldn't have known this if it were for Flemish "quality newspapers" De Morgen and De Standaard, which have multiple articles on the Israeli political crisis with very big headlines on their homepage, but apparently none about the imminent collapse of the Walloon government. No wonder that it already feels as if these are two (or three) different countries.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/demorgen/status/1640647441618960384

Former liberal chairwoman. Translated:

‘The BBB has eaten away at the extreme right in the Netherlands. People are fed up with conspiracy theorists and Putin worshipers.”

LOL, this is so cringe

Shes framing the victory of agrarians in Netherlands as a victory for her party and ideology

Shes a LIBERAL lol

why is she framing the victory of BBB as a liberal victory

Is this liberal?



She frames the victory of this party as the end of the far right.

What is Flemish politics nowadays:
1. party A claims they're the Belgian counterpart of BBB in Netherlands
2. party B claims they're the Belgian counterpart of BBB in Netherlands
3. party C claims they're the Belgian counterpart of BBB in Netherlands
4. party D claims they're the Belgian counterpart of BBB in Netherlands
5. party E claims they're the Belgian counterpart of BBB in Netherlands
....
etc

It's ridicilous.

BBB literally rose out of protest with Dutch liberals over nitrogen regulations.

[DavidB.]

Vlaams Belang are also endlessly more skillful and competent than FVD + PVV, which I suppose are the "Putin worshippers and conspiracy theorists" she refers to. To me, Van Langenhove's exit from the VB parliamentary group was the perfect epitome of this and, seen from Dutch eyes, something unbelievable. I'm not quite sure what was going on there, but seems likely to me the official story isn't true and VB most likely wanted to get rid of him to have this roadblock out of the way in anticipation of a coalition with the N-VA. Yet both VB and DVL stick to the velvet divorce story and the result is that voters move on and it's a net win for VB. In the Netherlands, you'd have seen a party split for sure, causing tons of drama and voters to run away.

[Zinneke]

Vlaams Belang are also endlessly more skillful and competent than FVD + PVV, which I suppose are the "Putin worshippers and conspiracy theorists" she refers to. To me, Van Langenhove's exit from the VB parliamentary group was the perfect epitome of this and, seen from Dutch eyes, something unbelievable. I'm not quite sure what was going on there, but seems likely to me the official story isn't true and VB most likely wanted to get rid of him to have this roadblock out of the way in anticipation of a coalition with the N-VA. Yet both VB and DVL stick to the velvet divorce story and the result is that voters move on and it's a net win for VB. In the Netherlands, you'd have seen a party split for sure, causing tons of drama and voters to run away.

I'd say again that it is more to do with the unique electoral rules and media setting in the Netherlands, rather than VB's professionalism (although Van Grieken has definitely made them more competent and savvy). If VB were in a political scene that would allow space for breakaways more easily, it would happen. But the opportunity cost is just way to high compared to the Netherlands where you can a) get enough media attention if you hit the right notes on even a single cleavage issue like farming or the European Union and b) reach an electoral threshold enough nationwide to get a seat or two.

I think if VB and N-VA form a government in Flanders you'd start to see some splitting on both sides, with the obvious caveat that because the center-right is crowded in Flanders a lot of ex-NVA would end up in some of the other parties like VLD or CD&V. I can't see them trying some sort of Volksunie "nationalism first, your other views second" kind of entity. We are beyond that. But the opportunity cost would be considerably less substantial if they want to form a right-wing opposition to what would potentially be a clown car crash of a government.

[Zinneke]

new polls

https://www.lesoir.be/504735/article/2023-03-31/grand-barometre-bruxelles-le-ptb-son-sommet-le-ps-en-degringolade-infographies

The PS are getting hammered in Brussels in favour of PTB, but say strong in Wallonia. MR stay pretty much the same. Wilmes is a bit of a trump card for them, she still has this bizarre cult following amongst the apolitical public for her role during Covid when it was blatant if one actually read the journalists reporting on her premiership that she wasn't that good but just milked her pressers. Bouchez is laughably irrelevant given his whole schtick is about being noticed for any issue.

Meanwhile the Brussels Open VLD have had a little mini coup with the De Gucht family clan taking over so that the Daddy's Boy Frederik De Gucht can be parachuted into a ministerial vote with a couple of thousand votes.

https://twitter.com/destandaard/status/1641768450216595457

The end of Else Ampe faction and the potential soft left-liberal faction of Vanhengel and Gatz in favour of a candidate who will just favour family politics aka demanding MR be in the majority.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/PDelwit/status/1642061513383968768

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1642107296955154433

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1642107032693096448

[Umengus]

NVA will decide in flanders (with SPA) and PS in Wallonie (with MR ?). these 2 dominant parties will have to discuss to form a coalition at the federal level. With who is the question. Probably with VLD and MR. To see.

The alternative is a NVA+ VB in flanders and PS + PTB in Wallonie. Chaos.

[Zinneke]

there is another massive corruption scandal

https://www.rtl.be/actu/belgique/politique/scandale-des-pensions-la-chambre-deliberement-camoufle-des-complements-7/2023-04-04/article/539876

17 million in pension money given to Speakers of the Belgian federal chamber.

One of the guilty parties is the current PM's father, although he has given it back now.

Nothing else will happen of course.

[Zinneke]

State secretary for Equal Opportunities Sarah Schlitz (ECOLO) has resigned on live TV after a scandal about her using her personal logo on government documents, then lying about it to parliament.

[Zinneke]

I obviously disagree with the overall message of "public sector bad, private sector good" but this map showing where private and public sector employees live shows you a striking divide

https://twitter.com/sebmeunier/status/1652243548182282241

[Zinneke]

Paul Magnette : Tax the Rich!
Also Paul Magnette :

https://twitter.com/ManuDeBock/status/1653575270526246914

[warandwar]

Paul Magnette : Tax the Rich!
Also Paul Magnette :

https://twitter.com/ManuDeBock/status/1653575270526246914

Those are quite high salaries in general, is that typical in Europe?