Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://www.brusselstimes.com/brussels/163046/thousands-party-in-brussels-bois-de-la-cambre-as-april-fools-joke-gets-out-of-hand-la-boum-riot-police-coronavirus-measures-facebook-event-water-cannon-fake-festival/

April fools joke festival gets out of hand!

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/162645/judicial-net-closes-around-lets-go-urban-founder-sihame-el-kaouakibi-lets-go-urban-antwerp-brussels-belgium-bart-de-wever/

Definitely a newsworthy week.

Some have suggested that the liberals also will have to do a name change, as their name might be too toxic now.

Stealing 1 million euro's from taxpayer's money is a big deal, i suppose.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

LOL, according to a poll, both Vlaams Belang and the Green Party have the most anti-vaxx members.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

file:///C:/Users/Ashle/Downloads/20210517_De%20Stemming%202021_dag%202.pdf

Massive polling

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2021/05/21/vlaams-belang-blijft-de-grootste-partij-cd-v-in-de-problemen/

(link below)

I'm a fan of Jos D'Haese (PVDA), seems he's even more popular than every Green politician at this point. Green lacks a charismatic face at this point. Same can be said about CD&V (that only gets 10%) while s.pa/Vooruit does better because of some faces they have now and didn't before.

[Just the facts]

LOL, according to a poll, both Vlaams Belang and the Green Party have the most anti-vaxx members.

I can't say I'm surprised. The problem with Greens everywhere is the amount of kooks they attract. You might think a candidate is ok and sensible and then you discover he's a flat earther.

[Zinneke]

Because every political debate from France has to be imported here, the Francophone Belgian political scene is having a massive internal feud on whether public officials are allowed to wear the headscarf.

This latest debate was triggered by a complaint against the Brussels public transport service, the STIB-MIVB, which is the largest employer in the Brussels Capital region. The plaintiffs claim that the STIB not allowing headscarf wearers is discrimination. A court found in favour of the plaintiffs. The STIB political council could not agree whether to appeal, because Défi and ECOLO have diametrically opposed views and they are in the majority. They sent it to the regional government, and the regional government is now at risk of collapse because Défi are absolutely instransigeant on state neutrality, even advocating laicité.

Belgium has state neutrality as opposed to French laicité. This means that whilst the state funds officially designated religions and their activities, the state employees themselves must remain "neutral". This means no religious symbols must be displayed when in public office. ECOLO BXL want "inclusive neutrality" to accept headscarves in public offices, but ECOLO Wallonia have stayed dead quiet. MR want the status quo to remain. Défi want laicité so the end of religious hold on education. PS have been torn apart by this issue so released a typical belgian compromise (only it actually makes sense to me) of making a distinction between public officials who are in contact with the population and the "backroom" officials who should be allowed to hold religious symbols. PTB have ECOLOs position in all but name.

This has now blown up, thanks to Rajae Maouane of ECOLO who wants to reconcile Feminism and Islam as her favorite hobby horse just as we go through a pandemic recovery, but also the media's darling MR president Georges-Louis Bouchez. To make matters worse, Federal government appointed the same time this was happening a woman with a headscarf and previously of ECOLO label to a "Commissioner" position (the details escape me but basically she went from being a political apointee of ECOLO to a representative of the state). De Croo initially said all the Federal government coalition members were on board in the Kern, where the top ministers from each party discuss these things. However, Clarinval of MR was "instructed" by his party leader to tweet that actually MR opposed it, causing friction between MR and their coalition partners.

This is all a total waste of time with more pressing issues, but it looks like it will have profound consequences on the Brussels regional government (particularly Défi's role in propping up the PS-ECOLO tandem since they split from MR), as well as MR's relationship with its federal government partners due to GLB seemingly backstabbing De Croo.


We also had polls recently showing Vlaams Belang still with a healthy lead and NVA second. In Brussels MR are doing much better (probably due to being much more flexible with Horeca and also picking off certain clientelist vote winners from cdH) but in Wallonia they are losing a few points.

[Zinneke]

The Belgian federal government is having its first genuine risk of collapse. This is due to the ongoing crisis of undocumented migrants in two University buildings and a church in Brussels, who have begun a hunger strike. These undocumented migrants range from newcomers to people who have been here 10-15 years and worked off the books.  Because of Covid their situation has been insurmountable economically and decided to go on hunger strike to ameliorate their status.

Sammy Mahdi, the migration minister, refused to give them collective amnesty and settled status. He wants to treat them on a case-by-case basis. They wish to have collective amnesty as had been before in 2010 and 2019 with some undocumented migrants. Following their hunger strike, Mahdi has hardened his position. He believes ceding would set a dangerous precedent. He has offered them medical support for free.

Yesterday PS, ECOLO and PTB released the same statement word for word calling on Prime minister De Croo to intervene. De Croo still trusts Mahdi with the dossier but put a bit of pressure today. However, the PS have now made clear that if one migrant dies due to the hunger strike then they will be ready collapse the federal government.

[Zinneke]

New polls

[PSOL]

PTB/PVDA calls for lower VAT taxes

On Thursday, October 7, party president Peter Mertens called on the federal parliament to pass the proposal to lower the VAT on energy charges from 21% to 6%. As of October 9, more than 258,410 people have endorsed an online petition initiated earlier by the PTB with the same demand.

The PTB also slammed the arguments put forth by the parties in the governing coalition for not lowering the tax on energy prices. According to reports, the government representatives tried to defend the high tax on energy by stating that a general reduction would benefit the richest, and will negatively impact the reduction of CO2 emissions, state budgets and hit wages in the country. The PTB’s response was that a majority of working class households in the country spend a large share of their income on energy bills and that the losses due to reduction in VAT on gas and electricity must be offset by a tax on the profits of energy multinationals.

[Zinneke]

There's a much deeper corruption at work here than simply ''fcuk poor people''. ECOLO are useful idiots and will yet again take the brunt of the criticism for failed energy policy. But MR and PS are up to their necks in corruption hence why they changed their tune so suddenly on nuclear power...

Its all there out in the open : The Secretary General of the MR, Valentine Delwart (https://www.cumuleo.be/nl/mandataris/6778-valentine-delwart.php), works for a gas company on the side, making 6 figures. She led the federal negotiations in the background while Bouchez was pulling off the media stunts! 

Energy infrastructure, along with housing, is the easiest way to get rich as a politician. You can influence both of those better than most other factors and you can sit on their boards raking in the cash while the feckless journalistic class just lets it go on because "its how things are always done".

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Peter Mertens will resign as chairman of PVDA, but will stay active inside the party. I credit him with broadening the appeal of the political party, getting rid of the Stalinist image we had and being less dogmatic, while focusing more on issues that matter to people and the working class, keeping in touch with them through grassroots politics.

The next chairman should be able to get at least the same appeal, maybe widen it more among the youth, should be bilingual and appeal to both sides of the country, has good knowledge of the issues, and should not come across as too dogmatic on the issues, but as one that can be worked together with and people can recognize in him. Maybe it is also time for a woman to become our chairwoman, especially since only the Greens do have women in the lead. On top of that, the bulk of our voters are women (majority - 60/40) while in the party itself male are the majority in terms of membership (but that's in general the case with our political participation inside Belgium, women are less active in politics than men).

Personally, i do think Line De Witte and Natalie Eggermont would be able to do the job well. Jos D'Haese and Raoul Hedebouw maybe are the favourites. This would also be a good time to reform the internal structure of the political party, and continue the direction in focusing on issues that matter to people as a consequently left-wing party. We should & could do better with youngsters, i believe, but the Flemish youth might be surprisingly conservative.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Raoul Hedebouw likely will be elected new chairman. I'm not sure if that's the right choice, but he has experience, and is perfectly bilingual. But he can come across as a bit too enthusiastic / militant, and maybe scare voters away.

[Zinneke]

Raoul was elected by a wide margin

Tensions apparent in MR. Jean-Luc Crucke, the Walloon finance minister is on the brink of resigning because he came out and said he would respect the accords with the PS and ECOLO and implement the fair taxation scheme the leftwing parties demanded. Bouchez and his wing though want a full offensive against the Left despite being in government with them as they try to capitalise on the swing rightwards in France and hope the Presidential election there influences Walloon discourse.

Crucke is part of the more social liberal wing alongside Christine Defraigne and Phillippe Goffin. Bouchez leads the omnipresent Michel clan and seems to have recovered from his humiliation after he bungled several ministerial positions. A split isn't off the table.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

New poll



19 seats for us in latest poll, and for the first time in my (rural) province.



Flanders:
Vlaams Belang (far right): 24.5% (+5.9%)
N-VA (national conservatives): 21,6% (-3.9%)
Vooruit (social democrat): 13.9% (+3.1%)
CD&V (christian democrat): 10.7% (-3.5%)
Open VLD (conservative liberal): 10.2% (-3.2%)
PVDA (marxist): 8.9% (+3.3%)
Groen (green): 8.4% (-1.4%)
Others: 1.7% (-0.2%)

Wallonia:
PS (social democrat): 24.9% (-1.2%)
MR (conservative liberal): 22.3% (+1.8%)
PTB (marxist): 18.2% (+4.4%)
Ecolo (green): 15.5% (+0.6%)
cdH (christian democrat): 8% (-2.6%)
Défi (regionalist): 4.2% (+0.1%)
Others: 9.9% (=)

Brussels:
Ecolo (green): 19.3% (-2.3%)
MR (conservative liberal): 17.4% (-0.1%)
PS (social democrat): 15.1% (-4.9%)
PVDA-PTB (marxist): 15.1% (+2.8%)
Défi (regionalist): 11.3% (+1%)
cdH (christian democrat): 5.2% (-0.6%)
VB (far right): 3.3% (+1.7%)
N-VA (nationalist conservative): 3.0% (-0.2%)
Open VLD (conservative liberal): 2.9% (+0.6%)
CD&V (christian democrat): 1.3% (=)
Groen (green): 0.6%
Others: 5.2% (+0.9%)
Vooruit (social democrat): 0.3%

[LAKISYLVANIA]

We are fighting for first place in Liege (with social democrats). A region we do traditionally well in. Our newly elected chairman is also from this province, living in the city and likely a possible candidate for mayor in 2024.
Wa are fighting for second place in Hainaut (with liberals). A region we do traditionall okay in.
We would win a seat in Namur.

We are currently third in Antwerp, a province dominated by N-VA and VB both right-wing parties, overtaking all other traditional parties (and greens).
We win a seat in West Flanders (not a province we do well in).
We win a seat in East Flanders (again, not a province we do well in).
We win a seat in Limburg (again, not a province we do well in, while greens wouldn't win one with this poll)
We win a seat in Flemish Brabant, a province dominated by well known national figures, while ours is headed by a former Flemish communist student representative.

We would win 3 seats in Brussels, as many as the winner (greens).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Visualized:




Yes that's right there's no ECR or 1D aligned party in Wallonia because they tried numerous efforts and they all failed, there simply is no real conservative choice or far-right choice as options in the past typically struggled with electoral threshold and never gained traction.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Vooruit has the covid minister (federal minister of health) while chairman Conner Rousseau enjoys a popularity boost. Together with prime minister of Belgium Alexander De Croo (Open VLD) they are the three most popular politicians currently in Flanders. Jan Jambon (Flemish PM - N-VA) is however unpopular.

Strategies have been:

N-VA using their position in Flemish government to sabotage a lot of federal plans, like for example regarding energy (to shut down nuclear energy), because they believe that a federal government that isn't able to execute plans will increase flamingant sentiment.
CD&V is quite invisible lately.
PVDA came into the news because they don't want to fire nurses that don't take the vaxx, as they also reason that we have a shortage of nurses. They also are getting more popular due to the energy crisis, which rises prices and causes a high rise of inflation up to levels around the 2008-2009 economical crisis. A leftist message will work better because of that.
Open VLD is mostly visible due to having the PM. Otherwise invisible.
Vooruit has two persons that are popular, with the minister of healthcare being visible rn.
Greens probably are messing up on the issue of energy, and lack people of popularity. They might also be too establishment-like for most people.

Given that Vooruit has 3 seats in that poll for West-Flanders. I suspect due to having the minister of healthcare (covid), they do better among the elderly (taking votes away from CD&V), while Conner Rousseau is the youngest chairman active right now, and is active on trendy social media. However he seems to enjoy the ideal son-of-law effect.

Currently, we are basically in a lockdown again because our caretaker sector is collapsing. Numbers are however starting to decrease slowly again. The lockdown of several businesses causes some to gain additional stress, while there is currently little to no covid aid anymore.

Due to rising energy prices, our inflation has risen dramatically, and basically our entire life has become way more expensive. Wages will be adapted to inflation so wages will rise too, but overall the situation is worrying and not ideal.

Energy and gas is about 300% more expensive than a year ago. And overall a lot of shops had to increase their prices dramatically.

I would say covid(/healthcare) and energy (/environment) are the most relevant issues rn.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://jacobinmag.com/2021/12/workers-party-of-belgium-ptb-raoul-hedebouw-interview

in Jacobin Magazine

“In 1869 Karl Marx called Belgium ‘the snug, well-hedged, little paradise of the landlord, the capitalist, and the priest.’ In 2021 Belgium offers the EU’s best hope for the ideology that bears his name.” So claimed the Economist last month, as the free-marketeer weekly identified the Workers’ Party of Belgium (PTB) as one of the most dynamic actors of the European left. A small Marxist-Leninist party whose membership numbered in the hundreds for the past forty years, the PTB experienced rapid growth in the last decade and became a real force in national politics, today polling third place (expected to win eighteen seats) and boasting twenty-four thousand members in a country with a population smaller than Ohio’s.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/11/18/last-of-the-commies

In the Economist Article: Last of the Commies

Yet some traditional Marxist parties are savvy. The Workers’ Party of Belgium (ptb), which began life as a home for Marxists who found Belgium’s Communist Party a bit soft, is now a mainstream party. Pressure from the ptb led to Belgium gumming up a free-trade deal between the eu and Canada, which sent diplomats on a crash course on the rules of Belgian federalism. Popular campaigns to slash taxes on energy put left-wing rivals in government in an awkward spot. In the Flemish parliament, it mischievously complained that a pay cut for mps had not actually gone through, two years after its approval. If polls are borne out, the far-left party is set to become the third-largest in the national parliament.

Wallonia, the French-speaking region of Belgium, provides the base of the ptb’s support. The region was the centre of continental Europe’s Industrial Revolution; now it is the apogee of deindustrialisation. Disaffected voters in depressed regions have been fodder for the radical right across Europe. Canny politics from the far left in Belgium has flipped that trend, dragging voters to the other side. In 1869 Karl Marx called Belgium the “the snug, well-hedged, little paradise of the landlord, the capitalist, and the priest”. In 2021 Belgium offers the eu’s best hope for the ideology that bears his name.

[CumbrianLefty]

A bit like Corbyn's Labour on steroids......

[Zinneke]

I would say covid(/healthcare) and energy (/environment) are the most relevant issues rn.

ECOLO are certainly taking an almighty pummeling because of their stance on nuclear. Nollet litterally came out and said it didn't matter if CO2 emissions are higher because other countries in Europe would compensate!

Which also brings us to the whole idiocy of the thing, because the Netherlands just announced the building of 2 new nuclear power plants - there is your compensation for you. How is the security argument not irrelevant now that our neighbour will have 2 plants? If I were an ECOLO strategist I'd have just knocked the ball out of the park by saying the EU should have a clear position as a whole. Instead they are totally naively ceding to their NIMBYist rural activist base that think they are going to grow third nipples from living about 100km from a nuclear power plant.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I would say covid(/healthcare) and energy (/environment) are the most relevant issues rn.

ECOLO are certainly taking an almighty pummeling because of their stance on nuclear. Nollet litterally came out and said it didn't matter if CO2 emissions are higher because other countries in Europe would compensate!

Which also brings us to the whole idiocy of the thing, because the Netherlands just announced the building of 2 new nuclear power plants - there is your compensation for you. How is the security argument not irrelevant now that our neighbour will have 2 plants? If I were an ECOLO strategist I'd have just knocked the ball out of the park by saying the EU should have a clear position as a whole. Instead they are totally naively ceding to their NIMBYist rural activist base that think they are going to grow third nipples from living about 100km from a nuclear power plant.

Yes i know, but I didn't know Nollet literally said that... Well on some Belgian internet forums, i've been incredible critical on the Greens this month, calling what they do now the biggest gaffe in Belgian's 21st century politics, that we're better off without greens and that the last thing they are taken serious is climate change. And i have a reputation of staunchly defending environmental measures there.

All other political parties should now start agressive ad campaigns on social media, and you have an opportunity to get rid of the greens for once and for all. All parties should spend millions on it on every site, and repeating it over & over & over again.

A conservative party like N-VA is winning the environment debate over the greens. That alone is a humiliation and embarassment, yet most of the media sides with greens and frames N-VA as using their position in the Flemish government to sabotage federal efforts, but I just can't see what N-VA is doing wrong, and I side with them on this strongly.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://www.reddit.com/r/belgium/comments/rj2628/vlaams_belangboegbeeld_chris_janssens_ja_ik_ben/

Far-right (VB) icon Chris Janssens outs himself as gay. I've posted the reddit link.

I think I disagree with 95% of what Chris Janssens says, but I have to admit he has guts.

I'm really curious how his party members and general voters will react.

On the one hand now they have their white rabbit to show they aren't homophobes. On the other hand, they have some real homophobes running around over there.

[Zinneke]

The Vlaamse Belang vice-president has come out as gay.

[DavidB.]

This is Belgium we're talking about (or Flanders, if you prefer), not Serbia. No one will mind.

[Zinneke]

This is Belgium we're talking about (or Flanders, if you prefer), not Serbia. No one will mind.

It's the hypocrisy really, given VB are notoriously homophobic?...although look who I'm talking to