Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[MRCVzla]

IPSOS poll released on Sunday, Oct. 11 (the first after the formation of "Vivaldi" cabinet)
Flanders
VB 27,1%
N-VA 22,2%
sp.a/Vooruit 13,7%
Open VLD 10,9%
CD&V 10,6%
Groen 7,6%
PVDA 6,0%

Wallonia
PS 21,1%
MR 19,2%
PTB 18,9%
Ecolo 17,8%
cdH 9,7%
DéFI 3,8%

Brussels
Ecolo 21,6%
PS 19,1%
MR 14,0%
PTB-PVDA 12,1%
DéFI 11,3%
N-VA 4,8%
VB 3,7%
cdH 3,2%
Groen 3,2%
Open VLD 2,4%
sp.a/Vooruit 2,3%
CD&V 1,7%

Seat projection (respect to previous poll in June):
VB 25 (-1)
N-VA 21 (+1)
PS 17 (-2)
PTB-PVDA 16 (-1)
Ecolo 14 (+2)
MR 14 (=)
sp.a/Vooruit 12 (+2)
Open VLD 10 (+1)
CD&V 10 (=)
Groen 5 (-2)
cdH 4 (=)
DéFI 2 (=)

[CumbrianLefty]

So the "blocs" are in fact almost unchanged?

[Former President tack50]

Nice, VB+N-VA majority in Flanders plus only 13 seats away from a negative majority federally and this is only a week into the Vivaldi cabinet.

Let's pick up some popcorn and watch the fireworks I suppose

[Tintrlvr]

From the polls, it seems like the PTB-PVDA has hit their short-term “limit” with gaining institutional power through elections. While the Labor movement and Student movement might have some wiggle room, they’ve hit a ceiling I think.

Meanwhile VB has much more room to eat what’s left of the liberals and established Right (NVA)

Does it? I would have thought a significant number in those groups who haven't gone over to them by now are unlikely to ever do so.

Agree with regard to VLD and CD&V, but everyone who votes N-VA is at least suspect for potentially voting VB in the future if they feel like it's a choice between VB and centrist/left-wing politicians.

[Zinneke]

From the polls, it seems like the PTB-PVDA has hit their short-term “limit” with gaining institutional power through elections. While the Labor movement and Student movement might have some wiggle room, they’ve hit a ceiling I think.

Meanwhile VB has much more room to eat what’s left of the liberals and established Right (NVA)

Does it? I would have thought a significant number in those groups who haven't gone over to them by now are unlikely to ever do so.

Agree with regard to VLD and CD&V, but everyone who votes N-VA is at least suspect for potentially voting VB in the future if they feel like it's a choice between VB and centrist/left-wing politicians.

There are many N-VA voters who prefer the Vivaldi parties to VB.

[Zinneke]

Wilmes in intensive care with Covid-19.

[Zinneke]

Belgium has 3 times the rate of infected Covid-19 per 100.000 people than any EU country, I think only Czech Republic might compete. Right now as the BBC main headline there is the story of how Doctors being tested positive are told to continue working unless they display serious symptoms.

Our federal level introduced new measures, then each region released their own stricter measures to various degrees (Flanders significantly less hit than Wallonia until today, will probably change now). Then of course you had the conveyor belt of mayors trying to grab headlines with even stricter measures, and Pierre-Yves Jeholet, head of the Wallonia-Brussels Federation, first saying schools would stay open then revving back the same evening.

[PSOL]

Exactly why are the PTB-PVDA retracting in the polls? Have they gotten in any scandals or is the National mood not “there” with them now compared to before?

[Zinneke]

Exactly why are the PTB-PVDA retracting in the polls? Have they gotten in any scandals or is the National mood not “there” with them now compared to before?

They are not retracting in the polls, if anything they are gaining in Wallonia and only slightly losing in Flanders (to sp.a's gain).

[PSOL]

Exactly why are the PTB-PVDA retracting in the polls? Have they gotten in any scandals or is the National mood not “there” with them now compared to before?

They are not retracting in the polls, if anything they are gaining in Wallonia and only slightly losing in Flanders (to sp.a's gain).

How are they losing in Flanders and Brussels?

[Zinneke]

Exactly why are the PTB-PVDA retracting in the polls? Have they gotten in any scandals or is the National mood not “there” with them now compared to before?

They are not retracting in the polls, if anything they are gaining in Wallonia and only slightly losing in Flanders (to sp.a's gain).

How are they losing in Flanders and Brussels?

My guess is that they all remained in the margin of error but the media wanted to make some movements and generate headlines (more common than I often acknowledge on this thread).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Exactly why are the PTB-PVDA retracting in the polls? Have they gotten in any scandals or is the National mood not “there” with them now compared to before?

They are not retracting in the polls, if anything they are gaining in Wallonia and only slightly losing in Flanders (to sp.a's gain).

How are they losing in Flanders and Brussels?

I think partially because the chairman of s.pa (social democratic party) might be quite popular. He is among one of the more popular Flemish politicians, and it's been a while ago the social democrats had a popular party face. And because of that, they gain some votes, and some of it is probably taken from the PVDA.

PVDA also has difficulty generating nation-wide attention and nation-wide headlines. And you must not forget that PVDA still is doing well, despite the short-term "losses" that might within the MoE, compared to the elections in 2019. Getting 6% is still a very good result for the PVDA in Flanders.

s.pa is a party of power, since there's a government right now, with Frank Vandenbroucke as minister of healthcare (during this crisis, being from s.pa), although he is been involved in major corruption scandals a decade ago, s.pa has just much more media exposure than PVDA.

PVDA is often not invited on debates, tv talk shows, and is often not talked about a lot. The media makes it no secret that they don't like PVDA or think they're not relevant. Before the 2019 election, despite polling quite well, they didn't give them a platform to speak on before the election or included them in election tests, because they argued PVDA had no seats on the flemish level (or federal one, although they had 2 seats from Wallonia), and that it wasn't a major party. Now they do have 12 seats, 3 of them being from Flanders.

2019 was a success that might have put the PVDA politically relevant for a long time to come in Flanders, but they're still smaller than all the other parties, and the least known "major" party in Flanders. Since 2019 they have been increasing, but that increase is less high than it used to be, but the polls still show an improvement over the last federal election and that's what matters.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The fact that Conner Rousseau "revived" Frank Vandenbroucke is something that bothers me a lot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agusta_scandal

In 1995 Vandenbroucke had to resign as foreign minister[4] and in 1996 he also resigned from parliament due to his involvement in the Agusta scandal. He acknowledged that he was confronted with 2 million francs which came as bribery money from the Italian helicopter builder Agusta.[5] Refusing to have anything to do with the money, he advised to "have the money burned".[4] Vandenbroucke was never prosecuted but took a voluntary sabbatical at Oxford (1996–99).

I think it will be of importance to link s.pa and PS to those scandals again, and the fact that they cannot be trusted, because they are a corrupt party. Secondly it will matter to tie s.pa to neoliberalism, and as moving away from it's past, especially with things they've done in the government (as well as the Greens) which are absolutely not social or environmental (the fact that they agree with austerity on public transport is absolutely not something you would link to environmentalism) while also re-iterating the strengths of PVDA and our grassroots supports / activism.

The policies of s.pa and Green have actually make me wonder their environmentalism is all just a show or some kind of populism, because this government is absolutely not really environmental, except for measures that restrict freedom from citizens WITHOUT offering alternatives.

Like making it more difficult to drive a car sure (with more limitations), which actually harm rural or more suburban regions, and esp. people that don't modernize their car (so poorer working class people), but they also cut on bus lines, digitalize the public transport system (so it's not possible to pay for a bus on the bus itself anymore, but to buy a bus ticket, you need to be on your computer or you have to go to a big city where they sell those bus tickets, and I know people who are in trouble because of it. Someone even had to ride illegally because he didn't know of those measures, and there was no way to pay for a bus ticket on the bus (which is absurd).

We also have the belbus which is a bus we can "call", but they're also scrapping that, and many people make use of it in my region, because this region is quite hilly and rural, but there are no frequent bus lines, and they only go one way or the other way, so it requires changing from bus line to a hub center, whereas the belbus can take wherever you need to be in a very small region. It's just completely absurd, and it actually is a hit on the face for people who believe in public transport as an environmental sustainable alternative to motorism, but this way, they're actually forcing people to use cars. And i think this is unacceptable for a government that has both greens and social democrats in it.

Totally unacceptable.

They're full with lies, corruption and taking illiberal COVID measures (like curfew or those harsh fines for covid measures infractions), while a few days ago, a proven rapist didn't even GET A PRISON SENTENCE. Some people on lockdown parties however got PRISON SENTENCES.

Can you understand that?

[Zinneke]

There's also just the general sociological, socio-economic conditions at play here. Wallonia and Brussels are both extremely well suited for a PVDA-PTB type party for different reasons. The former because of depressed heavy industry, strong union culture, and the class cleavage dominating anyway - not to mention a terrible political class. The latter for having educated intellectuals all competing for dirt money contracts (think Mélenchon's base), and alter-globalists or anti-US hegemony types, sometimes from a migration background - oh and it also has a terrible political class.

Flanders is not. In the few places it is sociologically like Wallonia (Zelzate, mining towns in Limburg), it overperforms relative to its national average.  

[PSOL]

Thanks for the information.

What has the coalition around the De Croo government managed to accomplish?

[Zinneke]

Thanks for the information.

What has the coalition around the De Croo government managed to accomplish?

Most of what it has done is related to Corona. In the background there is also the preparation for a new state reform given the federal politics of the country is broken and this is just a last Hail Mary for belgian compromises. I ain't following the legislative cycle anymore.

MR are trying to act as opposition from within with Bouchez so self-obsessed he cannot stop himself from talking to journalists, literally every ing week.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

PVDA indeed has in municipal elections over 20% in Zelzate which is their biggest city in Flanders. It's also the only place where PVDA is in the city government, together with Borgerhout (a district from Antwerp, but it's a district). There were some negotiations between PVDA, PS and Ecolo to go into a coalition in some places, but they rejected it everywhere or were rejected everywhere, which I can understand because it's really a risk to govern with PS nowadays.

The current government also sucks to be honest. Totally unnoticeable that the greens and social democrats are in and that the N-VA is out. I might even say I slightly preferred the Swedish coalition.

I think it would be beneficial if we had a government without either christian democrats or liberals, because they obstruct everything and what they want is what will happen, because they're the median and the center, but not necessarily represent the average Belgian.

It will never happen though, or it would mean a weirder combination between left and right (PS and N-VA would certainly have to go inside the same government if we want liberals or christian democrats to pass), but I believe a PS + N-VA government would be much better than the mess we have now, and it will also be much easier to get a majority on both sides.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Exactly why are the PTB-PVDA retracting in the polls? Have they gotten in any scandals or is the National mood not “there” with them now compared to before?

They are not retracting in the polls, if anything they are gaining in Wallonia and only slightly losing in Flanders (to sp.a's gain).

How are they losing in Flanders and Brussels?

Well this is the best poll for PVDA in 4 years.





Seat distribution in Walllonia





Seat distribution in Flanders





Seat distribution in Brussels

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Do they plan something like unity government for the duration of the corona, then resume negotiations, drag them on forever and let Wilmès stay in power until kingdom come or (more likely) N-VA gets fed up?

Anyway, here's an idea for a bet:
What will be the first dubious SHOCK POLL! to come after the grand coalition is formed?
a) VB at 40% in Flanders
b) PTB+Ecolo at 40% in Wallonia and/or Brussels

a) Still VB gaining a bit, but it's actually their worst poll since the elections with 23.6%, so they're still far off from that 40%.

40% is possible, but it will probably require VB renewing, changing their message and a collapse in support of especialy N-VA and a growing anti-establishment sentiment. It is possible, but it will require a major N-VA scandal. If that doesn't happen, people who are dissatisfied with the government might go to N-VA instead because they're in the opposition. If N-VA didn't exist, VB would easily already had 40% support, because the argument of N-VA at times is: "we can change things, because we're not in a cordon sanitaire. A vote for VB is a wasted vote".

b) = 4.5% short of it. Together they have 35.5%, and in Brussels 34.2%. Socialists have respectively 22.8% and 17.9% in Wallonia and Brussels, but they lose a bit. In Flanders they gain a bit because of popular figures Connor Rousseau and Frank Vandenbroucke but it's a less good result compared to the previous polling, to the expense of especially the PVDA-PTB.

I suspect 40% is possible, but it will require further losses from the left segments of PS and possibly also MR as well (who might go to Ecolo, since in Brussels during the last election, we saw tons of richer classes moving to the Greens from MR, while the poorer classes went from PS to PTB mostly, there's also probably some intra-party movement between those parties, while cDH is starting to get more & more irrelevant, and probably losing votes to those four major parties, especially MR + PS, limiting their losses (most of them go to PS because cdH is also a anti-Flemish party / obstruction for state progress party while the more social conservative ones probably go to MR). Some liberals who despise MR because of their affiliation with Flemish right-wing parties that are often pro-independence or pro-confederalism, also have moved to Défi (a regionalist social liberal party).

Liberals have the PM and while PM De Croo is the most popular politician in our approval ratings poll, they still lose very slightly but within the margin of error, and they tend to be underestimated I believe.

An issue for the PS however is that they are more & more associated with wanting to enact further state reforms, something most Walloons oppose. There were talks between N-VA and PS for a possible government, but I think it might've backfired for both parties, because a conservative party like N-VA being associated with what is called their enemy: PS is not good, and at the same time PS being associated with a pro-Flemish conservative obstructionist anti-Walloon party, while at the same time working together with N-VA for state reforms will backfire, and is potentially also a reason why some voters move to PTB (who are in favour of the Belgian state, and/or ironically keeping the monarchy).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The best poll for PTB in Wallonia was in june 2017 which was also the only poll in which the PTB ever led by 1.7% with 24.7% of the vote but Ecolo had 11.4% so combined they had 36.1% (which is only 0.6% more than today. In that poll, PS only had 16% of the vote. In this month's poll they have 22.8% of the vote, so for the aggregate left it's a much better poll in 2021. The pollster of that 2017 poll isn't a regular pollster, and I suppose there might have been some errors, because it was an outlier but however in a period PTB had some momentum at the expense of PS because of the many scandals it faced.

For Brussels, this month's poll was actually their best poll in the history of the political party. They never got 16% in a poll. And before 2019's election, they never got more than 14.1% in a poll. Before the election day they even polled below 10% in general, only to get above 12% during the election in Brussels which was perceived as a success.

For Flanders, this month's poll was their third best poll in the history of the political party, only being topped by two other polls after the 2019 elections.

For Wallonia, this month's poll was also their third best poll in the history of the political party, only being topped by two other NUT polls mid 2017.

I think in some mayoral elections there were some NUT polls too, esp. in some Walloon cities (Seraing, Liege, Charleroi), but ultimately we performed better in the Brussels periphery than expected, while not managing to compete for the mayorship in the Walloon cities, but in some occasions ending second after the PS. But if Raoul Hedebouw (charismatic PTB politician living in Liege) went for mayorship in Liege, he might have a shot of ending in first place.

In Liege, we once polled at 28.3% (fourth most populous city of Belgium), in Charleroi we once got 25.4% (third most populous city), being in the lead in both cities. In Seraing we even once cracked 30% in a poll.

_____________

Some article about the recent pollings. In the polling on the answer: "by who do you feel most represented today", a major PTB politician ends second in Wallonia and third in Brussels (after former prime minister (and first female PM) Sophie Wilmés and in Brussels also by current PM Alexander De Croo, both liberals).

https://www.rtl.be/info/belgique/politique/grand-barometre-le-ptb-grand-vainqueur-politique-de-la-crise-covid--1285789.aspx

Grand Baromètre: le PTB, grand vainqueur politique de la crise Covid?

Great Barometer / Polling: The PTB, great political winner of the COVID-crisis?[/i]

Jamais le PTB n’avait été aussi haut en Wallonie et à Bruxelles, dans toute l’histoire du Grand Baromètre, le sondage politique RTL INFO - Le Soir réalisé par Ipsos.
Avec 19% d’intentions de vote (la question posée à un échantillon représentatif de la population belge: si les élections avaient lieu demain, pour quel parti voteriez-vous ?) en Wallonie, le PTB assoit sa troisième place, derrière le PS et le MR, les deux grands partis dont il est désormais tout proche. A Bruxelles aussi, le PTB enregistrerait son meilleur score, si on votait demain pour les élections fédérales : 16%. Derrière, on retrouve Ecolo dont le leadership s’érode, le PS et le MR, les 4 partis séparés d’à peine deux points. Enfin, le PVDA, l’aile flamande du PTB, est en progression aussi, par rapport à son score des dernières élections, et son score de décembre : 8,2% d’intentions de vote.

En Flandre, le score du Vlaams Belang continue de se réduire légèrement. La N-VA se stabilise à 20%, niveau bas par rapport à un score électoral déjà en recul, en 2019.

Si on revotait demain: nationalistes flamands et communistes en force à la chambre

Si on revotait demain, le gouvernement Vivaldi aurait une majorité un peu plus étriquée à la chambre (83 sièges au lieu de 87 actuellement).

Le Vlaams Belang (22) et N-VA (20) représenteraient, ensemble, la plus grande force politique de la chambre.

La N-VA est le parti qui chuterait le plus (-5 élus) par rapport aux élections. Et c’est le PTB/PVDA qui progresserait le plus (19 élus, soit 7 élus supplémentaires par rapport aux élections), devant le Vlaams Belang (22 élus, + 4). Ensemble, les partis populistes (VB + PTB) totaliseraient 41 élus.

La famille socialiste perdrait un élu (27), et serait talonnée par les libéraux (26 députés), les écologistes seraient 2 députés de moins. La famille centriste perdrait 2 parlementaires.

WALLONIE

Voici une série de personnalités politiques. Pour chacune d'elles, voulez-vous indiquer si vous souhaitez la voir jouer un rôle important ou pas dans les prochains mois ?

1. Sophie Wilmès (1)
2. Alexander De Croo (2)
3. Paul Magnette (3)

Par qui vous sentez-vous le mieux représenté aujourd'hui ?

1. Sophie Wilmès (1)
2. Raoul Hedebouw (4)
3. Paul Magnette (3)

BRUXELLES

Voici une série de personnalités politiques. Pour chacune d'elles, voulez-vous indiquer si vous souhaitez la voir jouer un rôle important ou pas dans les prochains mois ?

1. Sophie Wilmès (1)
2. Alexander De Croo (2)
3. Paul Magnette (3)

Par qui vous sentez-vous le mieux représenté aujourd'hui ?

1. Sophie Wilmès (1)
2. Alexander De Croo (2)
3. Raoul Hedebouw (3)


FLANDRE

Voici une série de personnalités politiques. Pour chacune d'elles, voulez-vous indiquer si vous souhaitez la voir jouer un rôle important ou pas dans les prochains mois ?

1. Alexander De Croo (1)
2. Bart De Wever (2)
3. Frank Vandenbroucke (3)

Par qui vous sentez-vous le mieux représenté aujourd'hui ?

1. Alexander De Croo (1)
2. Bart De Wever (2)
3. Conner Rousseau (4)

Qui sont les bénéficiaires de la crise?

Le PTB bénéficie plus de la crise que le Vlaams Belang. Le parti d’extrême droite flamand est toujours donné premier parti du pays si on revotait demain. Mais c’est plutôt l’autre extrême, la gauche radicale, qui profite réellement de la pandémie. Le Vlaams Belang a surtout engrangé des intentions de voix dans l’année de crise politique, qui a suivi les élections. Alors que depuis le début de la pandémie, son score s’érode un petit peu à chaque nouveau sondage. Le PTB, lui, après avoir connu un creux lors du premier confinement, semble avoir profité du désarroi social d’une partie de la population lors du reconfinement d’automne.

Un "effet Vandenbroucke" est à signaler pour le SP.A, le parti socialiste flamand. Que ce soit pour les scores de son parti ou son score personnel, Frank Vandenbroucke, très exposé durant cette crise, sort très clairement gagnant de cette année de crise. Son parti était donné en recul dans nos sondages avant mars 2020. Depuis, le phénomène s’est inversé : depuis un an, à chaque sondage, le SP.A dépasse son score des élections de 2019. Pour ce qui est de la popularité du ministre socialiste, il a fait son entrée dans le classement directement sur le podium en Flandre et ne l’a plus quitté. Côté francophone, son ascension est constante : de la 15ème place au début de l’automne, il s’est installé au pied du podium.

La "popularité Wilmès" est aussi enregistrée. A l'inverse de Frank Vandenbroucke, cette popularité lui bénéficie surtout à elle. La grand messe des conseils nationaux de sécurité a donc également profité à celle qui a été Première ministre pendant la moitié de cette année de pandémie. Sophie Wilmès a été propulsée personnalité préférée des francophones dès le premier sondage de cette période covid, en juin. Depuis, elle a quitté son poste rue de la Loi, mais pas la première place des podiums wallon et bruxellois.

Palmarès d'impopularité

Parfois, l’un des plus populaires d’un côté de la frontière linguistique est aussi le plus impopulaire de l’autre côté du pays. C’est le cas de Bart De Wever, président de la N-VA. Deuxième personnalité préférée des flamands, alors que côté francophone, c’est d’abord lui que vous ne voulez surtout pas voir jouer un rôle dans les prochains mois. Et à une forte majorité : 2/3 des sondés francophones.

Même curieux effet miroir pour Sophie Wilmès : elle est la personnalité préférée des Wallons et des Bruxellois, mais elle se retrouve dans le top 3 d’opinions défavorables en Flandre.

Au Nord du pays, c’est toujours le leader d’extrême droite Filip Dewinter qui occupe la délicate position de personnage le plus impopulaire.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

LOL

[Estrella]

LOL

Ah yes, a symbolic representation of spinning deeper and deeper into the square-shaped black hole of Pasokification. The spirit of optimism that the party needs in these trying times.

More seriously, "what the f/ck does that thing mean" will be the most common reaction here, and it sums up why this sort of image change does nothing at best, and usually backfires badly, especially in a country like Belgium where parties have generally stable bases of support: potential new voters will be unconvinced by what they (rightly) see as window-dressing, while loyal old voters will feel betrayed and think that the party has left them.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/162742/belgium-must-lift-all-covid-19-measures-withing-30-days-brussels-court-rules-verlinden-human-rights-league-ministerial-decree-penalty-civil-safety-act-pandemic-law-coronavirus/

https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/162807/disgrace-belgium-criticised-after-court-order-to-lift-all-covid-measures-nva-peter-de-roover-de-croo-pandemic-law-ministerial-decrees/

Belgium is ordered to lift corona measures within 30 days after court order by the human rights league.

[Zinneke]

Riots in Brussels after an april fool's joke to get people to go to a rave in Bois de la Cambre means 3000 people gather. Police start horse charges and water cannon action. Youth respond with projectiles. Now the more revolutionary elements are getting involved with the police.

Overall, I would say the governments plan to deconfine raised expectations sky high, and now people are at breaking point. Won't be surprised if these measures continue to not be respected and incidents emerge.

Meanwhile Georges Louis Bouchez is now found out : he made a huge deal of protecting police from violent protestors, but also tries to undermine the government's social distancing measures. He's caught in between a rock and a hard place.

[njwes]

Riots in Brussels after an april fool's joke to get people to go to a rave in Bois de la Cambre means 3000 people gather. Police start horse charges and water cannon action. Youth respond with projectiles. Now the more revolutionary elements are getting involved with the police.

Overall, I would say the governments plan to deconfine raised expectations sky high, and now people are at breaking point. Won't be surprised if these measures continue to not be respected and incidents emerge.

Meanwhile Georges Louis Bouchez is now found out : he made a huge deal of protecting police from violent protestors, but also tries to undermine the government's social distancing measures. He's caught in between a rock and a hard place.

Just give the youth the opportunity to read the Science™ on COVID, and they'll surely understand