Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

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I'll vote PVDA-PTB after voting for Open VLD (liberals) in 2014. My foster mom will also vote PVDA-PTB after voting always CD&V or N-VA/VU since 1960's, influenced by my experiences and my political participation. My other foster mom always voted for the Greens but will now vote for a right-wing party (N-VA) for the first time as she increasingly became islamophobic. My dad will vote Vlaams Belang after being right-wing for years (although i don't know his voting history). I'm starting to feel like 2019 might be a re-alignment election for Belgium.

A lot of friends will vote Vlaams Belang and PVDA-PTB. I've heard in media that Vlaams Belang is very popular among the young people. 25% of 18 to 30 year olds will vote for them, but s.pa and CD&V do remarkably terrible among those voting groups and have old loyal voting bases.

My real mom is against Open VLD, N-VA and Greens and will vote for Vlaams Belang or PVDA-PTB. Same applies to my grand-parents which are either communists or Vlaams Belang voters, but i don't know them well enough. Both my families seem to be inclined to support Vlaams Belang. My foster families seem to support more traditional right-wing parties (CD&V and N-VA).

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New polling. Media spinned it into losses for the Greens or a disappointing poll for them (while still winning seats), while Vlaams Belang had a very good poll and seem to have momentum build on maybe the case of Julie Van Espen and a good (online) campaign.

Flanders



Brussels



Wallonia



Polling history



If true, this would be the best election result for Vlaams Belang since 2007 when N-VA was still in a cartel with CD&V (and they have now close to 30%). Flanders at a whole in the meantime clearly shifted to the right, just like almost everywhere else in the world in the last decade / ten years.

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https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2019/05/16/dries-van-langenhove-de-hoop-van-rechts-radicalen-in-vlaanderen-a3960502

An article about the polarisation of the Belgian youth: the climate activists on one side and the identitarians on the other side.

I also made a poll in a survey i had to made for school and had 50 responses. It included this poll



30% - i don't know
16% - I'm not allowed to vote or will fill in an invalid ballot
16% - Greens
14% - PVDA
12% - N-VA
6% - Vlaams Belang
4% - Open VLD
2% - A different party
0% - CD&V and s.pa



20% - Younger than 18
38% - 18 to 21 year olds
24% - 22 to 25 year olds
6% - 26 to 29 year olds
12% - Older than 30

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I mean the Marc Dutroux affair was one of the things that caused the downfall of the Christian Democrats in 1999 and spellt the end of the political careers of Justice ministers like Melchior Wathelet, and even 10-15 years later when I was living there Marc Dutroux was still a household name, even middle school kids who were babies when he was committing his crimes all knew who he was.

That's true... I'm the first to say that i forgot a lot of serial killers. I think i only know Freddy Horion (but don't know what he did), de Bende van Nijvel, Kim De Gelder (more recent), a certain Hans (with Asperger's), de kasteelmoord (and you have a parachutemoord as well) and Ronald Janssens. Some of those cases got more media attention than they deserve, but i think that you're right that every Belgian will know Marc Dutroux, and he was even a Walloon while Kim De Gelder also has such a reputation that everyone know his name, but Marc Dutroux is Belgian's most famous serial killers, and everyone knows the names of the murdered and what happened, and even his escape.

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my result of a voting survey.

1. PVDA (far-left)
2. s.pa (social democrat)
3. Green (greens)
4. Vlaams Belang (far-right)
5. CD&V (christian democrat)
6. N-VA (nationalist, conservative liberal)
7. Open VLD (liberals)

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Welcome back to the thread Lakigigar! Do you know people in your environment that will vote differently regionally/federally/EU? Do you think the EU debate has been a bit drowned out?

I think I will vote regionally for Clerfayt (Defi), although I am still not sure who I will vote for. I will spoil my ballot or vote for the animal party federally and then definitely Groen at EU.  

The animal party seems very radical to me, and is a wasted vote, as they have no chance to break through. Spoiling a ballot is a ballot that will add to the majority's total. I understand you don't fully agree with any party, and neither do i, but spoiling a ballot is just stupid.

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Thanks for the updates, coloniac and Lakigigar.

New polling. Media spinned it into losses for the Greens or a disappointing poll for them (while still winning seats), while Vlaams Belang had a very good poll and seem to have momentum build on maybe the case of Julie Van Espen and a good (online) campaign.

To what extent would you say the VB surge is related to DVL's popularity?

Hmm, among youngsters it will matter but i think VDB would surge with or without DVL. But he's definitely popular among right-wing youngsters, and he might attract voters that would otherwise vote for Theo Francken, so i would say a bit, but he also certainly would scare some voters off, but it would be a net positive. I don't think his popularity explains the surge though. We would have seen the surge a long time ago, but he will increase the vote share of youngsters. Around 25% of 18 to 30 year olds are expected to vote for Vlaams Belang, partly because the mainstream parties do very bad among them, and the youth is very polarized (left-wingers going for PVDA / Groen) and right-wingers preferring N-VA and Vlaams Belang), and others going for Open VLD, but the only people who vote CD&V or s.pa among them are the ones that have parents, friends, family members who also are politically active for those parties. Especially s.pa does extremely bad among them.

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Are those projections from you or from pollings?

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Are those projections from you or from pollings?

pollings, although maybe not the most recent ones where the Greens were slightly weaker.

I expect a huge VB surge (recent pollings + late deciding voters often vote VB), and a good result for them. s.pa, VLD, CD&V and N-VA will all lose a bit, but not much. Groen and PVDA will gain from last elections. I expect 2-3 seats from Flanders for PVDA (Oost-Vlaanderen, Antwerpen and maybe Limburg). But the projections are certainly too harsh for Vlaams Belang. I also think in Flemish Brabant Open VLD will lose quite a bit, because of the Maggie de Block effect in 2014.

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My cousin will probably vote DierAnimal, but she's very radical about animals as well. I just voted PVDA-PTB three times .

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What happened to the DENK copy? Wasn't it named ISLAM or so?

Is there any chance VB get two seats in Flemish Brabant?

Will there be a livestream and exit polls? I assume there is no embargo on federal election results, only on EU parliament results?

No, ISLAM is more radical than DENK, but there are multiple DENK copy parties like D-SA and Be.one and more... They really couldn't unite and all, and won't be a huge influence to this election.

One seat is almost certainly, two is a possibility but not entirely sure of chance rates

I'm not sure either, but i'll keep you updated if you want in this topic. I'm not sure if there is even an embargo on the EU election. I'm not sure if we even have exit polls, usually not.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/#/2/15/2000/percentages here you can see the results

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PVDA-PTB also has extremists in their lower ranks... I always pay attention to who i vote, but in particular in Brussels it's a problem. Some that are elected already left the PVDA because they don't give half of their wage to the party or vote for different legislations than what PVDA advocates of (mostly in case of foreigners that are elected). Not to say Groen / Ecolo has those utter idiots on their lists as well ofc. (and PS even more)

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Currently gilets jaunes riots / protests in Brussels on election day.

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first result from a local canton, 7% counted. Very early yet, but possible trends to be seen already: far-right populist party wins a lot.

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You heard the "wow" in the studio... This is shocking from a canton in west-flanders. The right-wing populist party gains 25%.

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But in Tongeren N-VA loses a lot to Open VLD instead of VB. Why would people switch from N-VA to Open VLD? Do they think the N-VA has become too right-wing?

Not fully counted, it's a small community inside a canton that is counted (the smallest county in Belgium with only like 100 inhabitants, so i wouldn't pay a lot of attention to it).

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Black sunday confirmed

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They are already questioning the cordon sanitaire.

So what kind of coalition seems likely at this point?

Really no idea, it might take months, possibly up to a year to form a coalition.

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If Flanders were to leave, would N-VA and VB want to leave the EU as well? Have they ever released plans to how an independent Flemish state would function or is ir more vague dreams?

VB Yes
N-VA no.

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7sur7 have a very simple interactive electoral map :

https://www.7sur7.be/home/elections-consultez-la-carte-des-resultats-ici~a94d232b/

Why does Open VLD do so well in the southwest of Eastern Flanders? I expected them to do better in Flemish Brabant and worse there.

Flemish Brabant has Maggie De Block effect of 2014 that is worn out.

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Given that PS-Ecolo-PTB have a majority in Wallonia, why not go with a full left wing government coalition?

It's a possibility if the Swedish coalition continues on Flemish level, but we might have a problem with the federal parliamant than.

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It seems like every single party leader bar cdH, PTB and VB will step down at some point.


sp.a : Combrez is touted to at least re-run but he'll be up again "Red Lion" (a Flemish social nationalist) and Vilvoorde mayor Hans Bonte at the very least.  
PS : Di Rupo is facing challenge on his left from Magnette, who insists on not negotiating with NVA.
NVA : De Wever is under a lot of pressure from the Right of his party.
VLD : Rutten is not even in control of all of her party and will likely lose out to Van Quickenborne or De Croo jr. (hopefully the latter even if I hate nepotism in Belgian politics)
CD&V : see David´s post about De Crem. Beke has already stepped down and will likely be replaced by someone on the right of the party.
MR : with Michel gone, one would say the road is clear for Reynders but I think both are ok with a new challenger.
Défi : Maingain is stepping down. Someone from the Clerfayt camp will likely take over.
ECOLO : Khattabi has stepped down.
Groen : A lot of criticism aimed at their duo (Almaci-Calvo) for their polarising campaign too. One will likely take a step back.  


Looks like the traditional parties want to radicalise while the Greens want a more professional approach. Interesting...

cDH already had a new leader this year. And there were no recent replacements of leaders. It was about time.

Why do you prefer De Croo Jr. and not Quicky? I hope Francisco Vanderjeugd becomes the new VLD leader. I really dislike Rutten. I don't like CD&V moving to the right. Jambon's government is more than Bourgeois'. And i would really dislike De Crem as CD&V chairman.

Who is Red Lion? I prefer Crombez in that race. I'd like Green to change their leaders. Almaci is not left-wing enough, and I dislike Calvo's attitude

PVDA-PTB has no reason to be in the Walloon government, although i prefer a PTB-Ecolo-PS government, but PS is corrupt, still better than the other parties, including Green and s.pa. I don't think it's the right time, but i'm unsure. I approve Magnette, and disapprove Di Rupo. Ideally a Magnette II government with a left-wing broad coallition between PS-Ecolo and PTB but i understand PTB's viewpoint.

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Don't hold your breath that's for sure. Already the regional coalitions might take longer than it took to form the federal one last time round. But at the same time there is probably going to be what PS leader Magnette called a stop-gap government at federal level to find a budget and then the calling of new elections in about a year or so that will be fought on institutional devolvement of powers. The problem is no one on the Flemish right will want to blink first and yet at the same time they don't want to be held responsible for the country's credit rating falling like last time out.

I hope it will take a long time, and that they'll call new elections. Happily waiting for MR/Open VLD, CD&V (De Crem lol) and N-VA to lose more.

PTB are a resolutely testimonial party and have proved that once again. They will not enter power even if its to lead Portuguese-style social democratic/eurocommunist program. They are, in many ways, one of the last authentic Marxist-Leninist parties in Western Europe still performing, mainly because most of their own members don't even know this. Their main strength and attraction though is that their party activities are by no means restricted to electoral politics.

That's absolutely not true.

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https://m.hln.be/showbizz/muziek/festivals/pukkelpop/anuna-de-wever-verlaat-pukkelpop-nadat-ze-uitgejouwd-en-belaagd-werd-op-camping-organisatie-opent-onderzoek~a18f996c/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=push_notification&utm_campaign=PushCrew_notification_1565949476&pushcrew_powered=1&fbclid=IwAR1_aE2WMvKIWh6Pqld3RA_nT9DJ-YfwB2hKBq05-9e8aky648wmpACObWk&referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2F

The growing polarization among the youth is problematic. The strongest voting bloc of both the far-left and far-right is a bit going too far. On a festival, climate activist Anuna De Wever (similar person to Greta Thunberg) has been boo'ed, and they've chased her to her tent, waking her up with death threats, ruining her tent and throwing urine at her. The video's has been shared by the far-right facebook page "Make Vlaenderen Great Again".

Last year, there was an incident as well when some people chanted "Chopping off hands, Congo's ours".

One of the youngsters seen in a video chanting a racist song at the Pukkelpop music festival has apologised.  The teenager wrote an email to the press in which he apologised for singing "Chopping off hands, Congo's ours".

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Loved the booing of Anuna but obviously harassing her is utterly unacceptable. In response, the festival was accused of taking people's Flemish national flags away from them. Not a good response either...

They've called it a "collaboration flag". N-VA want apologies from the festival organization.