Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[CumbrianLefty]

A guess of national seat numbers if the results were like in that poll: VB 35-40, PVDA 5-8, PTB 15-20. Averaged and put together, it works out to 62 seats.

14, 14, fourteen seats short of a NazBol majority. In 2020, in a peaceful, prosperous Western European country.

Dear Belgian politicians, how did you manage to fxck up this much?

Its a long story, I suspect.

[Zinneke]

A guess of national seat numbers if the results were like in that poll: VB 35-40, PVDA 5-8, PTB 15-20. Averaged and put together, it works out to 62 seats.

14, 14, fourteen seats short of a NazBol majority. In 2020, in a peaceful, prosperous Western European country.

Dear Belgian politicians, how did you manage to fxck up this much?

Its a long story, I suspect.

Of course. It starts from the very inception of the Belgian state and its parliament. Some of its elites back then are still in control in the background or at the forefront now - De Croo Jr as protracted PM is case in point - His dad is bezzie mates with the King for a reason.

Its also, from a more generalist perspective, a serious challenge to Consociationalism. Can it survive as a model in the current political space, where there is a mixture of social atomisation that causes voters in both Wallonia and Flanders to not vote as if they were in a consociational democracy. And at the same time a massive contrast between the hyper-postmodern, accelerated Flemish political scene that broke down traditional pillars and voting patterns and gradually influences itself from Anglo-Saxon entrepreneurial political practices - we had De Wever last weekend now wanting a Anglo-Saxon FPTP-style electoral system in Flanders! - and then the archaic Francophone one where the same vote banks do what they do to cling on to certain categories of the population largely defined by "old school" cleavages - socio-economic, what type of school (religious vs public vs "free" school), who has the strongest union in your sector, and so on. Both a willingness to move on from consociationalism and a failure to update it to modern times. Resulting in a stalemate.

This will, at the very least, be an interesting social experiment. Probably more Czechoslovakia than Yugoslavia as it is still fundamentally an issue with elites rather than grassroots violence or competition over public goods. But it'll be a state breakup which in true Belgian fashion will be surreal, artificial, and full of contradictions. A lot of bluster without actually any contestation. I will likely not update this thread anymore once I go over the Vivaldi agreement and who got what ministry. I'll try to make some actual maps and dable in the Dutch thread as there's an interesting election there but the soap opera ain't from me anymore for a long time, especially as I will likely be gone from the country and I don't have, with COvid, the same contact with the politico types.

[Former President tack50]

A guess of national seat numbers if the results were like in that poll: VB 35-40, PVDA 5-8, PTB 15-20. Averaged and put together, it works out to 62 seats.

14, 14, fourteen seats short of a NazBol majority. In 2020, in a peaceful, prosperous Western European country.

Dear Belgian politicians, how did you manage to fxck up this much?

For what is worth there is already a NazBol majority in Thüringia, though admittedly that was:

a) A regional election
b) While Germany is part of Western Europe; Thuringen is still part of the former East Germany, which I guess makes it count as Eastern Europe if going by Cold War divides?

To be honest I wonder what happens if a Nazbol coalition does get a majority somehow (whether in Flanders or in Belgium at large). Probably the N-VA gets invited to the all party coalition somehow?

[Former President tack50]

Also, since everyone here seems very pessimistic, how at risk is Belgium really of breaking up? And if broken up, how would the region now look like?

Obviously Wallonia and Flanders would separate, but the big question is, what happens to Brussels, and the corridor linking Brussels to Wallonia?

Would Flanders give up Brussels and said corridor? Would it still take them despite Brussels not wanting to leave?

Bonus points if you somehow make Brussels a free city or some sort of free city or "EU capital district"

[crals]

Also, since everyone here seems very pessimistic, how at risk is Belgium really of breaking up? And if broken up, how would the region now look like?

Obviously Wallonia and Flanders would separate, but the big question is, what happens to Brussels, and the corridor linking Brussels to Wallonia?

Would Flanders give up Brussels and said corridor? Would it still take them despite Brussels not wanting to leave?

Bonus points if you somehow make Brussels a free city or some sort of free city or "EU capital district"

I suspect this problem is the biggest reason for Belgium not having split in two yet

[Zinneke]

Also, since everyone here seems very pessimistic, how at risk is Belgium really of breaking up? And if broken up, how would the region now look like?

Obviously Wallonia and Flanders would separate, but the big question is, what happens to Brussels, and the corridor linking Brussels to Wallonia?

Would Flanders give up Brussels and said corridor? Would it still take them despite Brussels not wanting to leave?

Bonus points if you somehow make Brussels a free city or some sort of free city or "EU capital district"

I suspect this problem is the biggest reason for Belgium not having split in two yet

That, and the massive public debt.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If Melissa Depraetere becomes chairwoman of Vooruit, i would maybe vote Vooruit (social democratic)

[Zinneke]

If Melissa Depraetere becomes chairwoman of Vooruit, i would maybe vote Vooruit (social democratic)

Oh yeah we forgot to mention they changed their name from sp.a to Vooruit (which in Dutch means "Forward" or "Avanti")

Also I still like Rousseau. He´s our generation, he schooled Bouchez twice (albeit with Magnette and De Wever in the background) and he gives zero iotas about traditions and customs (turns up to the King wearing sneakers and to negotiations with his back pack and t shirt - which is what this charade deserves). But I really think sp.a/Vooruit is unsalvageable.

[Estrella]

If Melissa Depraetere becomes chairwoman of Vooruit, i would maybe vote Vooruit (social democratic)

Oh yeah we forgot to mention they changed their name from sp.a to Vooruit (which in Dutch means "Forward" or "Avanti")

haha what

also it was apparently considered for some time?

De naam SP.A (Socialistische Partij Anders of Sociaal Progressief Alternatief) dateert van 2001 en kwam er op initiatief van toenmalig partijvoorzitter Patrick Janssens.

I mean, it does sound like they're trying to outpathetic Lucht Oibre, but it's not like they have many options left.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Oh yeah we forgot to mention they changed their name from sp.a to Vooruit (which in Dutch means "Forward" or "Avanti")

Wait, they're actually doing that? ahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[Zinneke]

Pretty sure Rousseau plays Atlasia, yeah.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Liberal De Croo becomes PM. One mayor left Open VLD (Moorslede). The bleeding has began!

[LAKISYLVANIA]

We come 49 days short of our own world record without a government

[Estrella]

Today (and probably any day of Vivaldi) is a good day to watch this:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flemish_Secession_hoax

[Zinneke]

We come 49 days short of our own world record without a government

Its ok, they'll almost certainly have a chance to break their own record next election cycle.

Anyway, can a moderator/admin please change the title to something regarding this momentous occasion of a federal government being formed.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

My analysis, translated from Dutch.

Vivaldi is #notmygovernment! Alexander De Croo, best known for being the son of ... proves that you have to have the right connections or the right father to get opportunities and hold positions in politics. The choice for this prime minister is mainly a meaningless, boring and elitist choice, and above all a middle finger to the ordinary working people, regardless of whether they are left or right. Vivaldi will further ensure the growth of the right and far right, and everyone who works with Vivaldi will be responsible for that, because one thing counts for them: the posts and the big money. There is nothing progressive, forward-thinking, or anything to help working people about this central agreement. On the contrary. Not enough ambition in terms of climate and healthcare. Not enough social measures to help us get there. This is because Green has too few balls on their body, and prefers to affiliate with Open VLD, s.pa is full of people who deny their own ideology, Open VLD only contributes to the growing economic inequality, and CD&V prefers a new one. see state reform, do not want to see progress in abortion laws, and no one else knows why the Christian Democrats have joined Vivaldi.

Mark my words, the chronicle of the death of the Belgian center is approaching. People are leaving Open VLD and CD&V en masse for N-VA and VB. And that is the fault of precisely those people who do not provide an answer to the economic and health crisis, prefer to keep fighting for the posts and push the people to the right themselves by not being capable and going for their own interest. It is indeed a wonder that after 500 days we FINALLY get to see a government.

I'm going to be honest. I would rather have seen a government with N-VA that was in favor of a Danish social democratic model, if PS made concessions to them. Then we would at least have a Flemish majority, and the right would not grow as it undoubtedly will now.

Unfortunately Vivaldi is the end of Belgium. And the center itself is partly responsible for this. By not providing an answer to the questions and needs of the working person.

[Former President tack50]

Why is it such a big issue that there is no majority in Flanders? It's not like Wallonia complains when there isn't a majority there? (Or Brussels for that matter?)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Why is it such a big issue that there is no majority in Flanders? It's not like Wallonia complains when there isn't a majority there? (Or Brussels for that matter?)

The right campaigns and argues that it contributes more to Wallonia than vice versa, which is true to some extent. Flanders is more economically developed than Wallonia, pay more taxes, have higher employment rates, has a bigger economy and gets little in return compared to Wallonia. It's similar to Catalonia's situation in Spain. That's why they believe they're entitled to a Flemish majority. Flanders had since 2000 not a majority for a lot of years, F.Y.I. while Wallonia only didn't in 2014-2019. A N-VA / PS government would be more representative of the nation, and would eliminate the threat of the right growing.

[Zinneke]

Why is it such a big issue that there is no majority in Flanders? It's not like Wallonia complains when there isn't a majority there? (Or Brussels for that matter?)

What Laki says + in general Walloons will be less loud about those things because they are less loud about politics in general. Same for Brussels I guess. In terms of issue salience the economy is far more important to them than institutional power. In Flanders these kind of subjects are more important on the doorstep.

But its not true that there wasn't a fuss when MR went into the Swedish Coalition : the Francophone press litterally named it the Kamikaze coalition and PS grandees said they were traitors.


I was also in favour of either Arizona or the PS-NVA "Danish" agreement. But I think I'm in a minority of Francophones who would accept that. In the end the choice was either that or Vivaldi.

[windjammer]

Well I suppose it's a question of time for NVA and Vlams to form outright a coalition in Flanders?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/Jongnva/status/1311215782437761024

lol

[PSOL]

From the polls, it seems like the PTB-PVDA has hit their short-term “limit” with gaining institutional power through elections. While the Labor movement and Student movement might have some wiggle room, they’ve hit a ceiling I think.

Meanwhile VB has much more room to eat what’s left of the liberals and established Right (NVA)

[Zinneke]

Low down of the Cabinet.

Alexander De Croo VLD becomes Prime Minister. De Croo is most famous for one, being his father’s son, and two, for collapsing the government in 2009 over BHV, leading to the record breaking “no government” spell and political crisis. Since then he has been a quiet background schemer in a strong portfolio (Finance Minister) with ambitions for the PM spot. He is very close to the Anglo-Saxon world and is strong minded about digital transition and modernisation. In this case he benefited from both the PS candidate and Wilmes cancelling each other out as MR and PS can’t stand each other having such a public role. Plus its high time for a Flemish PM.

The PM in Belgium does all the head of government formalities, including EU summits, but is also present in the Kern, where the most senior ministers of each party sit with the PM and take executive decisions. The Kern is as such a major part of Belgian politics on a day to day basis. Here are the people going to be its protagonists, as Vice-Premiers for their parties :

Sophie Wilmes (MR) remains in government as Minister of Foreign Affairs, after she must have impressed during EU council summits and her international image, trilingualism and senior woman status also helped. She will also be MR’s representative in the Kern as Vice-Premier and she has likely gained even more influence in the party structures themselves after GLB’s ridiculous antics potentially cost her the PM gig and MR some policy concessions.

Georges Gilkinet is a fossil of ECOLO by now, and has plugged his way to the VP position. A largely inoffensive Namurois, he is on the Kern by virtue of his long association with Jean-Marc Nollet and hard work as head of their parliamentary group. He takes over the very difficult National Rail and Mobility portfolio. The National Rail has cripling debt and Mobility in Belgium is a mess given the split between Federal, Regional and Local commune powers.

Vincent Van Quickenborne gets the Vice-PM spot for VLD (De Croo being technically neutral) and also the Justice portfolio, which will get extra funding at last. Van Quick has a lot of experience for his age having been State Secretary for a big chunk of the noughties and 2 Minister gigs after. He’s close to De Croo and thus also close to Lachaert. Quite right-wing for a Belgian on a lot of issues, could be tough on Justice to boost his profile.

Frank Vandenbroucke makes a comeback as sp.a-Vooruit minister of social affairs. A guy who took on his own party when it was governed by the Tobback clan, he is a surprise addition by Rousseau, who is showing he wants the party to be more open. He’s also well respected and arguably one of the most intelligent people in the government, to the extent that only De Wever probably stands up to him intellectually.

Petra de Sutter for groen becomes, as far as I can tell, the first transgender minister in Belgian and European history and will leave her MEP role to get a VP spot and the Ministry of Public Admin and Public companies. De Sutter was previously a medical academic, highly regarded in her field, and continued to bring health issues such as cancer when she entered politics.

PS have Pierres-Yves Dermagne as their Vice-Premier. Hailing from Rochefort he has been instrumental in the development of his region and as a Namurois with a technocratic approach appears to be a compromise candidate between the more loud PS branches. He is also an outspoken Walloon regionalist. He becomes Minister of the Economy

CD&V will have Vincent Van Peteghem as their VP and head of Finance. With De Crem and Koen Geens out of the Ministries you can clearly see CD&V trying desperately to get some “Fellow Kids” fresh blood into the top jobs, and this guy seems to be the party president stooge. This relatively inexperience Flemish parliament member with a background in teaching at management schools is a push for that more younger image (for a Christian Democrat party).

I’ll do a quick summary of the other ministries when it is officially announced.

[Zinneke]

MR is a clown car right now. Not only was Bouchez forced to accept another Michel family member (Mathieu) as Federal Minister due to the pressure from the Brabant Wallon Mafia wing of the party, he also had to include Denis Ducarme at a Walloon Ministerial Post to replace Valérie De Bue and compensate Ducarme's lack of federal portfolio. Only problem is : MR agreed to a law in the sitting majority stating that at least a third of your ministers had to be women. So Ducarme can't take up his Ministry.


Anyway the other ministers are :

Francophones :

Minister for Pensions, Social Integration, Poverty and Beliris : Karine Lalieux (PS)

Minister of Defense : Ludivine Dedonder (PS, "close" to the mayor of Tournai if you get my drift and now apparently also has a fan in the form of Theo Francken)

Minister for the Economic Recovery : Thomas Dermine (PS), a sort of Pete Buttigieg-like figure (Solvay Business School, Harvard, Mckinsey) who is shadowing Magnette a lot in the hopes of a political career.

Minister for Middle Classes, SMEs and Agriculture : David Clarinval (MR), big ally of GLB.
 
Secretary of State for Digitalisation goes to Mathieu Michel, Charles Michel's brother (MR).

Environment Climate and Sustainable Development : Zakia Khattabi (ECOLO) returns after her unsuccesful attempt to get into the courts. She will be a figure of hate on the Flemish Right. No need to explain why with her name and political views.

Minister for Gender equality and diversity : Sarah Schlitz (ECOLO). The german speakers can stop laughing at the back there! She is a young activist type who knows how to work the party base. Let's see how she does as Minister.

Flemish side :

Budget : Eva de Bleeker (VLD)

Interior : Annelies Verlinden (CD&V) - Antwerp-based so strategic move by the party to try and compete there after Peeters destroyed their image in the Diamond City.

Immigration : Sammy Mahdi (CD&V) young Brussels upstart of Morroccan background. Symbolic significance, but expect him to be hard on immigration.

Development and cooperation + City development : Meryame Kitir (sp.a) also of Morroccan origin and the only Limburger in the government.

Energy : Tinne van der Straeten (groen), Brussels-based.

I don't really know the Flemish ministers that well, as there is clear intent of renewal, but they certainly got the best ministries.


Overall I am proud we are one of the first countries to have a trans minister, and one who isn't overtly outspoken about it. That said there's a lot of "jobs for the boys/girls" culture in this government and a few inexperienced faces. In terms of the program : they promise a lot of investment without raising taxes other than a digi-tax on services that is difficult to implement, so I imagine more borrowing for future generations to pay or inflation to take care of I imagine. Stijn Baert made a twitter thread about the economic reforms of the Vivaldi but its hard to translate, maybe Laki can have a crack. The key issue of Nuclear phase out was also a hot topic and it will be discussed at the end of the mandate but if we meet certain conditions we will decommission the power plants. Otherwise there is still a debate about pensions being 1500 bruto or netto (remember this was actually a strong VB talking point last election, promising higher pensions while NVA was - rightfully -  ambiguous).

That's it for me, I'm happy to answer questions but I won't be posting much updates unless the government collapses (which it could, inevitably, given its Belgium).

[CumbrianLefty]

From the polls, it seems like the PTB-PVDA has hit their short-term “limit” with gaining institutional power through elections. While the Labor movement and Student movement might have some wiggle room, they’ve hit a ceiling I think.

Meanwhile VB has much more room to eat what’s left of the liberals and established Right (NVA)

Does it? I would have thought a significant number in those groups who haven't gone over to them by now are unlikely to ever do so.