Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[Zinneke]

https://www.rtbf.be/info/belgique/detail_le-roi-philippe-exprime-au-congo-ses-profonds-regrets-pour-les-blessures-du-passe?id=10532781

The King has expressed his deepest regrets for the crimes committed in Belgium's colonial past in RD Congo. He is the first royal to do so officially via a letter addressed to the Congolese President, Félix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo.

Any movement on returning all the artefacts they've plundered and placed on display in the "Africa" museum? I'm sure divesting continued colonial holdings and paying reparations is too much of a lift.

That's a very oversimplistic view. Do you make the Belgian taxpayers fund their elites crimes from the colonial era? Remember we didn't have universal suffrage until the 1920s. And Leopold II's crimes were due to it being his personal dominion (that we profited from, granted). Belgian gov did some pretty bad sh**t including assassinating Lubumba and the whole Katanga episode though. I'd be in favour of reparations on that basis but not Leopold II.

I wish there to be reparations but I seldom wish there to be financing some crooked Kinshasa politician. I also think returning the monuments to the capital negates the numerous peripheral peoples and also risks losing the monuments forever as they'll eventually be traded on the black market..

Also myself working advocacy in those regions, I have become disillusioned with this idea of development. Réparations is just continuing the bondage relationship between colonized and colonizer. Even the Congolese president said he wants a two way relationship. A lot of hustlers, grifters and so called charity workers would smell the money when it arrives, and it would largely arrive in Kinshasa or Elizabethville, not evenly across the country. There's a reason the guys who work in development lives in nice villas with young African women as second wives there whilst the foreign office people are in significantly worse conditions. What would help Congo more than just pouring money into black holes exploited by locals and Westerners alike is ending blood diamonds and timber trading leading to warlordism in the East, breaking down trade barriers and helping build stable institutions (including decentralisation). But I don't think Belgium is a position to lecture them on the latter.
 

[Zinneke]

On a scale of Czechoslovakia to Yugoslavia, how messy would a VB driven break up of Belgium be?

Because the opportunity cost of a civil war is so high compared to a developing country (see Congo) I wouldn't expect a Yugoslav outcome in Belgium. However the VSSE (Belgian internal security services) now ranks far right terrorism as one of the biggest threats. It's more Baader-Meinhof in brown though.

So to answer your question : Czechoslovakia.

[warandwar]

Well of course "development" is an extension of the colonial holdings. Belgium never intended for Congo to leave its control (as the infamous blackboard read "avant independence = apres independence"). The idea that what was going on up until 1920 was solely Leopold's responsibility is farcical, the idea that Belgium can handle plundered patrimony better than Congo misses the point, and Congolese politicians are no more or less venal than Belgian ones.

[Zinneke]

Well of course "development" is an extension of the colonial holdings. Belgium never intended for Congo to leave its control (as the infamous blackboard read "avant independence = apres independence"). The idea that what was going on up until 1920 was solely Leopold's responsibility is farcical, the idea that Belgium can handle plundered patrimony better than Congo misses the point, and Congolese politicians are no more or less venal than Belgian ones.

Everything up until Leopold II was stripped of the land by the Belgian parliament for precisely the atrocities (perpetrated by his private militia) is his responsibility.

That doesn't absolve us from responsibility for what came after (which is considerably more grey of an area than Leopold II's reign) ...but please remember that the Royalist/baron establishment (epitomised by Baudouin and his unconstitutional meddling in such affairs) was largely responsible for our foreign policy there. Congo has never been a salient election issue and always been a playground for hustlers (Charles Michel's father being a prime example) and mercenaries. Whether you like it or not, most people here don't feel they have skin in the game because a) they are from a foreign background themselves (yours truly included) or b) they hate the partiocracy possibly more than the average politically engaged Congolese person. Is Laki for example supposed to feel guilty for the actions of an establishment he hates? He is a PVDA activist from West Flanders, not a Christian Democrat grandee from the Periphery who owns a castle-manor and has business interests in the Congo.

Your solution is to give suitcases of euros to the Kinshasa government, themselves a proxy of Kabila, himself a  close associate of the shady elements in the Belgian partiocracy that governs us, so that they can continue funding a resource-centred counter-insurgency in the East against Kagamé's proxies. If you want suitcases of cash going from Belgian elites to Congolese elites, trust me that's already happening....

I hate to be Jesuit about this, but I think it's a question of timing. When Congo has stable institutions and a semblance of a democratic, federal state, let's talk reperations. And yes, let's tear down Leopold II statues. I'm all for that too.

[warandwar]

You feel like "a Jesuit" because you owe your job to the continuance of Colonialism. Bourgeois condition. I can relate. Don't drag Laki into this, hes a bro.

BTW: What are the difference Belgian parties' attitudes towards the colonial legacy?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I honestly think reparations are a dumb idea, because Congo's administration is corrupt. You can't undo the past, but past elite generations are responsible. We however can expose Leopold II for who he was, remove all statues and street names of him and teach about it

[Zinneke]

You feel like "a Jesuit" because you owe your job to the continuance of Colonialism. Bourgeois condition. I can relate. Don't drag Laki into this, hes a bro.

BTW: What are the difference Belgian parties' attitudes towards the colonial legacy?

The more right wing and francophone, the more likely you are to find colonial apologists. The Flemish far right tends to just ignore it and almost certainly would not want to pay reparations. The left parties are for reperations. The Catholic pillar wants to maintain Catholic interests (shocker) with a couple of barons and old Congolese white grandees in their ranks who adopt a kid from Kivu while promoting Congolese links  in a post colonial setting as positive(they do after all, have the only mayor of Congolese origin).

And as I said : it hasn't been an issue up until now. Colonization and decolonisation and how it was handled is definitely seen through a more negative lens than the European average (see the Dutch thread where I put up a graph on attitudes towards colonialism). It was never seen as a salient political issue though.

[GlobeSoc]

What are the chances that PS gets eliminated as an effective force entirely in favor of ecolo and PTB? Seems to me that they risk a feedback loop of the ptb getting stronger and making the PS look sillier for avoiding them until their votes get balkanized into more explicitly pro and anti-ptb segments. Of course, the other risk would be the PS being subsumed as a "popular front" party carrying bourgeois votes to the far left out of desperation to avoid that fate, but that risk would require a level of foresight that I don't see the Belgian mainstream having to come into play

[Zinneke]

De Wever and Magnette are heading to the King. A deal looks to be on the table. They have to submit a report by the 31st of July. Otherwise tomorrow will be the last Belgian national day I imagine.

I think the PS got scared of two successive spells in opposition. After all they have a whole PS-system to protect.

What are the chances that PS gets eliminated as an effective force entirely in favor of ecolo and PTB? Seems to me that they risk a feedback loop of the ptb getting stronger and making the PS look sillier for avoiding them until their votes get balkanized into more explicitly pro and anti-ptb segments.

The PS is already on the decline from a macrohistorical perspective, and already "balkanised" ideologically speaking. This will be its biggest test yet : a coalition with a party they explicitly excluded from ever governing with that has far right elements in it. Its one that was catastrophic for the PvdA north of the border for example, with a far more establishment party, but the PS is a different animal : if it survived the decline of social democracy all over the continent, its because many "community leaders", businessmen that operate on the margin of private-public like Stéphane Moreau, hustlers, union bosses with bank accounts in Luxemburg, mafiosos (like Stéphane Moreau) and "ASBLs" are dependent on them in Wallonia. Directly. Labour aristocracy in its finest form.

The PTB's strategy of taking over their union and forming organic client-style organisations for their constituency is probably the best way to undermine the PS. But as soon as the Socialist unions considered the idea of their representative another 4 years in opposition at federal level they probably gave Magnette the green light to form a coalition. Magnette's deal will likely be about protecting the labour aristocracy and pensions over young workers, in exchange for a state reform and a hard immigration policy. The PTB will denounce, that's what they are best at, but they´ll only gain bourgeois Left and immigrant votes, in places like Brussels.

Of course, the other risk would be the PS being subsumed as a "popular front" party carrying bourgeois votes to the far left out of desperation to avoid that fate, but that risk would require a level of foresight that I don't see the Belgian mainstream having to come into play

What fate exactly? The PS has been presenting itself in its messaging as the popular front against Flemish nationalists and the Liberal "Social bloodbath" since 2009. Its already effective but it only gets you so far, because there is still fragmentation.

[Zinneke]

http://www.npdata.be/BuG/438-Vlaams-Belang/

jan hertogen here analyses where the VB has gone up from the election to the first party of Flanders. the first map, the parts in red are where they have increased.

[GlobeSoc]

It would appear that the Brussels suburbs are the least VB friendly region of Flanders. Is that region a stronghold for some other party? I would certainly expect that it would have a strong PTB (and left-wing more broadly) presence relative to the rest of flanders, not that that would be too high compared to anywhere in wallonia. If not, does the brussels question play any role in its behavior at all?

[Zinneke]

It would appear that the Brussels suburbs are the least VB friendly region of Flanders. Is that region a stronghold for some other party? I would certainly expect that it would have a strong PTB (and left-wing more broadly) presence relative to the rest of flanders, not that that would be too high compared to anywhere in wallonia. If not, does the brussels question play any role in its behavior at all?

The Brussels suburbs are the richest communes in Flanders with the exception of Vilvoorde. They definitely don't vote PTB - but many of them are Francophone or foreign origin (usually NATO-EU). This tended to be an Open VLD area as a result but now trends N-VA. you can see a clear shift in both parties results here :

http://www.npdata.be/BuG/426-Uitslagen/

(go to N-VA and VLD maps)

I honestly think VB made a mistake making Van Langenhove their list leader in this province...they clearly thought he'd do well with Leuven studentico types and people fearful of immigration and only immigration. Issue is some Flemish in the Brussels suburbs may have committed white flight, but not to the extent of the people of Ninove (where VB is in charge), and Brussels Periphery people don't want a race war either. The median right-wing Flemish voter here just want their 4 sided villa with garden, their company car, a low tax rate and they want less Francophones/immigrants because they don't want their way of life disrupted. NVA's Francken, in that respect, was a far better fit and comes from there, so the N-VA did well - he has nationwide name recognition more than any other politician outside De Wever.

And the Brussels question does usually play a role but it didn't much in 2019 (which I think has a lot to do with N-VA's scores as well. It will re-ignite if the Flemish parties lose their marbles and start calling for referenda, etc.

[GlobeSoc]

I notice that sp.a has very little correlation with PVDA vote or even a bit of a negative one, is this because of sp.a simply targetting more upscale demographics than the PVDA, or some other factor? Also, I noticed that groen did fairly well in the brussels suburbs, i take it that most people in that region with the slightest left inclination go for them over any other left party, presumably because of environmental leftism being the most palatable to the wealthy suburbanites of the area?

In addition, I take it that CD&V is a bit more upscale than Open VLD, similarly to how NVA does better than VB in urban areas. Certainly it seems that VB has a rural-industrial character, which would explain its ability to get away with far-right extremism.

Is there any sort of far-right reaction to the rise of the PVDA, like does the existence of them feature in any campaign materials by VB?

[Zinneke]

I notice that sp.a has very little correlation with PVDA vote or even a bit of a negative one, is this because of sp.a simply targetting more upscale demographics than the PVDA, or some other factor?

I have no idea why this is because sp.a don't target upscale demographics that much unless you count students, but PVDA are just as involved in university politics. I think Laki can answer your question. If I had a hypothesis though, I would say PVDA do well in places where they have a ground game that allows them to corner the working class vote on a particular issue, like in Zelzate with the Arcelor Mittal factory closure and air pollution.

Also, I noticed that groen did fairly well in the brussels suburbs, i take it that most people in that region with the slightest left inclination go for them over any other left party, presumably because of environmental leftism being the most palatable to the wealthy suburbanites of the area?

First, check the scales vs the actual results and you'll find groen didn't do that well, just better in comparison to previous results.

For who these groen voters are it depends, many of them are progressive but probably not from leftist families or income sectors. They come (historically) more from the Catholic or Liberal pillars or independent classes. And what's interesting is that this is replicated right over the linguistic border in the Walloon suburbs of Brussels : these tend to be professional class workers who are fed up with the protracted Parisian style "RER" never arriving, with bad infrastructure and constant traffic jams, and are conscious about ecological issues. MR, not PS, lost votes to ECOLO in Brabant Wallon. Same with VLD -> Groen.

In addition, I take it that CD&V is a bit more upscale than Open VLD, similarly to how NVA does better than VB in urban areas. Certainly it seems that VB has a rural-industrial character, which would explain its ability to get away with far-right extremism.

No. Open VLD is upscale (if you meant by class) - its vote is mostly predicted by income, and rich people live outside urban areas in Belgium. CD&V has cross class character. It has the Farmers Union but also the high clergy. It has the middle class catholic union very pro-market but it also has its workers union (still the largest in Flanders).

VB did better in rural and industrial areas than they usually do but, as often the case with far right parties in Europe, it would be a mistake to single handedly associate them with disgruntled rural or industrial working class.

Is there any sort of far-right reaction to the rise of the PVDA, like does the existence of them feature in any campaign materials by VB?

Ask Laki, but the fearmongers-in-chief of the PVDA tend to be N-VA who warn of a communist takeover in Wallonia and their voters having to pay for it. VB attack them online - and indeed everyone - but they also do media interviews side by side with them in a cordial manner (which would never happen south of the linguistic border - with any far right party), agreeing with some of PVDA's anti-system rhetoric. I think the more left-wing voters vote PVDA the more it suits VB : they want to paralyse Belgian institutions.

In the mid-2000s I used to remember the NSV, a far right student group seen as a stepping stone to VB, would always choose a Flemish city to march in backed up by seasoned VB and Voorpost hooligans and the Antifa (including yours truly) would turn up and it would rumble enough by Belgian standards...these seem to have dissipated : its more sticker wars and trying to infiltrate student unions these days.

[GlobeSoc]

wait a minute with rich people living outside of urban areas, does this result in any sort of neo-aristocratic behavior among the local rich? I remember you mentioning party grandees doing some weird neocolonial stuff and generally being corrupt, so it would be interesting to know if that spirit affects the private sector too. For that matter, are there any internal factions in any of the liberal* parties that are explicitly against clientelism? Such as a hard-left-but-not-literally-communist PS faction or a relatively conservative MR faction? Would any of these factions have even a remote chance of taking over the mainstream of their parties and making the system less of a dumpster fire?

*I'm using liberal to be a catch-all for the parties on the 'correct' side of the clientelist politics in the country, basically everyone except VB and PTB/PVDA


As a bonus question, what are the chances of a new election, and could PVDA win any outright pluralities in any regions should such an election occur?

[Zinneke]

wait a minute with rich people living outside of urban areas, does this result in any sort of neo-aristocratic behavior among the local rich? I remember you mentioning party grandees doing some weird neocolonial stuff and generally being corrupt, so it would be interesting to know if that spirit affects the private sector too.

The neocolonial stuff is usually from old baron families (note that you could become a baron just by being rich in Belgium, so they are also the haute bourgeoisie) who had interests in Congo in the first place and use their links with the foreign office to lobby for their interests. its not a nakedly corrupt thing, just the priviledge of having a hot line to the right people.  

Of course, the closeness between the private and public sector here in a Belgium is a nakedly corrupt thing. You only have to look at our internet service providers, that have had the book thrown at them for noncompetitive practices by the Commission : almost all of them also have public owned part with politicians sitting on the board level!

Look up the Néthys network of businesses and intercommunales (organisms set up by several communes to share utility prices, but with a for profit agenda), all of that network being owned by Stéphane Moreau, who was also a PS mayor of Liège suburb. It was a mafia enterprise : they were literally using it to rip off consumers by overcharging their electricity and paying themselves 6 figures for non-existent meetings.

And then in Flanders you have the property market which is rigged with politicians arbitrarily deciding on allowing building planification while having shares in construction companies, showing a massive conflict of interest. Apache.be, an excellent publication that tries to expose the corrupt in this country, did a report on this. it created the concept of "immocratie" : rule of the local builders.  

Its a system of kakonomics, both at political and economic level : we as consumers/voters have long accepted mediocrity and our businesses/politicians deliver mediocrity and light criminality too. Flanders appears to be waking up and clamouring to becoming a more "modern" country : in fact, many a Flemish right winger you will meet will claim they are more progressive than Wallonia. But the vast majority in this country still are ok with settling for mediocrity with their politicians and their services. They have grown used to it.  

For that matter, are there any internal factions in any of the liberal* parties that are explicitly against clientelism? Such as a hard-left-but-not-literally-communist PS faction or a relatively conservative MR faction? Would any of these factions have even a remote chance of taking over the mainstream of their parties and making the system less of a dumpster fire?

You could argue both Magnette and Bouchez are from this wing - outsiders who want to change the old systems. But then they also owe their success to the barons of their parties. That's the problem with these few usurpers, they have to pipe down to get the presidency.

As a bonus question, what are the chances of a new election, and could PVDA win any outright pluralities in any regions should such an election occur?

No I don't think they could. In a scenario where PS-NVA do a state reform and shaft Brussels and immigrants, making that the next hot campaign topic, PVDA might take votes away from PS enough to compete with ECOLO.

[Zinneke]

An interesting article for further reading on the above is this one in the Washington Post. I have my criticisms of it (the author has the flemish-tinted glasses on at times), but it does offer insight as to how Belgian politics works. Namely, the presence of "Big Men" who control their little mayorality and build a provincial profile enough to get elected to federal parliament, and the "pacification" system of Belgian federalism, leading to immobile institutional reform.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/07/10/want-to-understand-belgiums-complicated-politics-and-scandals-lets-look-at-africa/

[Zinneke]

An agreement is in place between N-VA, PS-sp.a, and CD&V-cdH. This only reaches 70 seats out of 150 though. They are hoping for either ECOLO-groen or one of MR-VLD to join, with preference for the latter. Open VLD-MR have tied their mast closer to each other than any other "family" though and De Wever came out saying that the Liberals come to every negotiating meeting "with their 2019 manifesto" because they have "no incentive to form a government". It is thought that MR are the ones vetoing the presence there because they want to block the protracted state reform, especially as N-VA have apparently negotiated the suppression of the Linguistic Facilties around Brussels. Other stumbling block (as predicted) : the Brussels wing of the PS are already starting to make serious noises about an alliance with N-VA. Not so much about the linguistic border (although they fear it too), but they realise they could lose heavily on the doorstep with an alliance with N-VA.

[Zinneke]

ECOLO temporarily reject the N-VA-Christian Democrat-Socialist nota on the grounds that the proposed state reform will not render our institutions more democratic and simpler to interpret. They also want more clarity on certain other economic and environmental agendas.

Also an ex-mayor of Aalst has been murdered. She was most famous for being caught in a state of intercourse with her ex-boyfriend on top of a Turkish tower, but was also quite a powerful figure in Aalst politics.

[Zinneke]

Peak Belgian politics these last two days. The liberals and greens on both sides of the linguistic divide released a joint statement asking for protracted changes in the state reform and refusing to be leveraged against each other! Result : De Wever and Magnette have Handed their resignations in to the King and asked him to appoint Nollet (ECOLO) ans Laechaert (VLD).

We are now firmly on track to beat our record without a majority (although Wilmes technically had an emergency mandate). We could also see fresh elections with the NVA and PS actually singing from the same hymnesheet Vs the green-liberal axis... extraordinary!

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Yes. This country is a joke.

We could also see fresh elections with the NVA and PS actually singing from the same hymnesheet Vs the green-liberal axis... extraordinary!

far-right vs far-left vs green/liberal vs nationalist/socdems. And christian democrats, well everyone forget about them.

[GlobeSoc]

How likely are new elections this year or early next?

[Zinneke]

How likely are new elections this year or early next?

Now extremely likely.

[Velasco]

Would you say Belgium is better with or without government?

[Zinneke]

Would you say Belgium is better with or without government?

I like current affairs goverernments in theory as it empowers parliament but I think De Wever was 100% right to try and get Magnette to topple Wilmes and actually have a strong majority in government.

Right now the entire political class needs to lose their jobs. There needs to be a Macron like figure or a technocratic government that just sweeps the traditional parties away. If only to make them stop being complacent.

Hell I'll even accept going back to the Netherlands. What a terrible strategic mistake our split was anyway.