Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024
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  Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024
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Poll
Question: Do you think Chez Nous will get seats?
#1
No, they won't get even 2,5% in Wallonia and Brussels  (what would happen accoding to recent polls)
 
#2
No, but they will get votes in the 2,5%-4,99% rango in Wallonia and/or Brussels
 
#3
No. They will pass the 5% threshold in Wallonia and/or Brussels, but somehow they won't get seats.
 
#4
Yes, they will get 1-2 seats
 
#5
Yes, they will get more than 2 seats
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 16

Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024  (Read 137214 times)
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #650 on: May 28, 2020, 03:57:24 AM »

All probable have 9 other mandates too
That's true. But it's like a really inefficient approach to healthcare. It surely did cost some lives, and is one of the causes why Belgium has a high death rate. Beke also ****ed up in the rest homes.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #651 on: May 28, 2020, 04:34:18 AM »

All probable have 9 other mandates too
That's true. But it's like a really inefficient approach to healthcare. It surely did cost some lives, and is one of the causes why Belgium has a high death rate. Beke also ****ed up in the rest homes.

oh yeah 100 per cent agree.

There should be 3 health ministers max.
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #652 on: June 10, 2020, 05:40:16 AM »

A few developments following the Open VLD leadership election :

The Vivaldi coalition (traditional tripartite + Greens) has now been ruled out by Magnette. He is acknowledging that its either a coalition between the N-VA and the Socialist family or new elections. Magnette himself is said to have already agreed a deal with the N-VA several times but is handcuffed by his own Party and the FGTB. The PS is terrified of losing the FGTB to the PTB, and the union just over the weekend rid themselves of their SecGen because he did a media appearance with MR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez. That's the level of radicalism they are at right now.
So I imagine we will see new elections.

cdH have unsurprisingly withdrawn their exile from all governmental levels. So they have made themselves available for the federal level, which given how close the numbers can be means they can negotiate hard. What it also means is that if federal elections come about ECOLO and PS may use it as an excuse to dump MR at the regional level. They are increasingly annoyed with Bouchez's consistent polemicist approach to politics, the latest being the criticism of the demo in Brussels that took place for BLM. They otherwise work well with the MR ministers but they would rather have cdH on board going if they see that their alliance with MR is costing them votes to the PTB.

cdH might actually benefit from an increasing stream of moderate MR voters who are rather troubled by Bouchez's style, particularly in the old Walloon Industrial Belt (who were probably from PSC families anyway).
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Zinneke
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« Reply #653 on: June 19, 2020, 02:31:38 PM »

New polls.


Flanders

VB 27,7
Nva 20
Spa 12,5
CD&V 11,8
Open VLD 10
Groen 9,4
PvdA 7

Wallonia

PS 23,7
MR 20,5
PTB 18,7
Ecolo 15,1
CdH 8,1
Defi 4,7

Brussels

Ecolo 19
PS 18
MR 17,4
PTB/PvdA 12,6
Defi 10,9
NVA 4,9
CdH 4,7
VB 3,7
Groen 1,8
CD&V 1,5
Open VLD 1,4
Spa 0,7

Absolutely no reason to go back to the voting booth. Ungovernable country.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #654 on: June 23, 2020, 08:59:55 AM »

Again satisfied with the polling of PVDA-PTB. I don't understand the enthusiasm for s.pa and it's leader Conner Rousseau. I'm not really a fan of him. I liked Crombez. All current party leaders are downgrades from their previous ones, except for MR. I like Bouchez.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #655 on: June 23, 2020, 09:53:10 AM »

Again satisfied with the polling of PVDA-PTB. I don't understand the enthusiasm for s.pa and it's leader Conner Rousseau. I'm not really a fan of him. I liked Crombez. All current party leaders are downgrades from their previous ones, except for MR. I like Bouchez.

You like Bouchez?! Why?

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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #656 on: June 23, 2020, 10:58:10 AM »

A few developments following the Open VLD leadership election :

The Vivaldi coalition (traditional tripartite + Greens) has now been ruled out by Magnette. He is acknowledging that its either a coalition between the N-VA and the Socialist family or new elections. Magnette himself is said to have already agreed a deal with the N-VA several times but is handcuffed by his own Party and the FGTB. The PS is terrified of losing the FGTB to the PTB, and the union just over the weekend rid themselves of their SecGen because he did a media appearance with MR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez. That's the level of radicalism they are at right now.
So I imagine we will see new elections.

cdH have unsurprisingly withdrawn their exile from all governmental levels. So they have made themselves available for the federal level, which given how close the numbers can be means they can negotiate hard. What it also means is that if federal elections come about ECOLO and PS may use it as an excuse to dump MR at the regional level. They are increasingly annoyed with Bouchez's consistent polemicist approach to politics, the latest being the criticism of the demo in Brussels that took place for BLM. They otherwise work well with the MR ministers but they would rather have cdH on board going if they see that their alliance with MR is costing them votes to the PTB.

cdH might actually benefit from an increasing stream of moderate MR voters who are rather troubled by Bouchez's style, particularly in the old Walloon Industrial Belt (who were probably from PSC families anyway).

What would the results of the PS losing the FGTB to the PTB be? Would it impact any area's politics disproportionately compared to others?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #657 on: June 23, 2020, 01:53:28 PM »

A few developments following the Open VLD leadership election :

The Vivaldi coalition (traditional tripartite + Greens) has now been ruled out by Magnette. He is acknowledging that its either a coalition between the N-VA and the Socialist family or new elections. Magnette himself is said to have already agreed a deal with the N-VA several times but is handcuffed by his own Party and the FGTB. The PS is terrified of losing the FGTB to the PTB, and the union just over the weekend rid themselves of their SecGen because he did a media appearance with MR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez. That's the level of radicalism they are at right now.
So I imagine we will see new elections.

cdH have unsurprisingly withdrawn their exile from all governmental levels. So they have made themselves available for the federal level, which given how close the numbers can be means they can negotiate hard. What it also means is that if federal elections come about ECOLO and PS may use it as an excuse to dump MR at the regional level. They are increasingly annoyed with Bouchez's consistent polemicist approach to politics, the latest being the criticism of the demo in Brussels that took place for BLM. They otherwise work well with the MR ministers but they would rather have cdH on board going if they see that their alliance with MR is costing them votes to the PTB.

cdH might actually benefit from an increasing stream of moderate MR voters who are rather troubled by Bouchez's style, particularly in the old Walloon Industrial Belt (who were probably from PSC families anyway).

What would the results of the PS losing the FGTB to the PTB be? Would it impact any area's politics disproportionately compared to others?

Its more of an indicator, and you would see large bleeding of the PS vote in places where their support is tied to the union and their economic agenda : the Walloon industrial belt in particular.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #658 on: June 24, 2020, 01:58:39 AM »

Negotiations between the Right block and the PS are not working, so now CD&V and Open VLD are trying hard to convince the sp.a to join as the lone left-wing party in the coalition. I think this might finally be it, although the stumbling block will be the MR : N-VA already proposed a "Danish social democracy" model of high social protections but hard on borders and immigration to the PS, which the latter agreed to, only to see the MR veto it. I can imagine they will do the same with Rousseau, only to see MR shaft everything.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #659 on: June 24, 2020, 12:50:51 PM »

Negotiations between the Right block and the PS are not working, so now CD&V and Open VLD are trying hard to convince the sp.a to join as the lone left-wing party in the coalition. I think this might finally be it, although the stumbling block will be the MR : N-VA already proposed a "Danish social democracy" model of high social protections but hard on borders and immigration to the PS, which the latter agreed to, only to see the MR veto it. I can imagine they will do the same with Rousseau, only to see MR shaft everything.
Ugh opinion of MR shifted very negatively in my view. Why would they want to block everything. I would be in favour of a Danish social democratic model.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #660 on: June 24, 2020, 04:37:46 PM »

Negotiations between the Right block and the PS are not working, so now CD&V and Open VLD are trying hard to convince the sp.a to join as the lone left-wing party in the coalition. I think this might finally be it, although the stumbling block will be the MR : N-VA already proposed a "Danish social democracy" model of high social protections but hard on borders and immigration to the PS, which the latter agreed to, only to see the MR veto it. I can imagine they will do the same with Rousseau, only to see MR shaft everything.
Ugh opinion of MR shifted very negatively in my view. Why would they want to block everything. I would be in favour of a Danish social democratic model.

My understanding is that part of the Danish style deal was that immigration was transferred to the regions, and state reform put on the table. MR want to block state reform, just like they did in 2014. PS is more flexible than MR in that regard. PS are just less flexible on social security. So for example they refused any deal that "triple locked" the economic reforms of Michel I.

It's explained in Francken's interview with Le Vif/L'express and several other journalists : the real blockage just before Corona wasnt PS-NVA, it was PS-MR-(NVA). These details only emerged after because its ancient history now.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #661 on: June 27, 2020, 05:02:14 AM »

N-VA asked Open VLD and CD&V apparently to make join the far-right VB in the coalition but they both rejected the idea.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #662 on: June 30, 2020, 03:32:45 AM »
« Edited: June 30, 2020, 03:59:00 AM by Zinneke »

https://www.rtbf.be/info/belgique/detail_le-roi-philippe-exprime-au-congo-ses-profonds-regrets-pour-les-blessures-du-passe?id=10532781

The King has expressed his deepest regrets for the crimes committed in Belgium's colonial past in RD Congo. He is the first royal to do so officially via a letter addressed to the Congolese President, Félix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #663 on: June 30, 2020, 07:02:36 AM »

Sixty years to the day after DR Congo got its independence - better late than never, indeed.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #664 on: July 03, 2020, 08:18:21 AM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 09:13:12 AM by Zinneke »

CD&V and cdH walked away from federal negotiations after MR's Georges-Louis Bouchez had agreed to block a vote on relaxing abortion laws only to renege on his promise and allow his grouping in the federal parliament a free vote. The Christians seem to have crawled back though, but its soured relations between GLB and yet another leader of a Flemish party after he pissed off De Wever and the sp.a leader Rousseau.

Interesting for two reasons : one, it shows how powerful our parliament is when there is "no government", as laws that are usually vetoed in a governmental agreement by the ever present Catholic pillar can pass...but also laws on the right of the spectrum (with VB support) can be shoved in too. Its always good drama when there's a government of Current Affairs as such. Another case in point : sanctions on Israel over the annexation of the West Bank are being actually debating in parliament rather than behind closed doors, and will rely on a majority of actual representatives to get passed. Should be a close vote.  

Two, it shows that MR have very little incentive to form a government. They are the 7th largest party in number of votes but have several ministries, are ever present at all the levels, and have the Premiership where Wilmes is building notoriety. On the other hand, respect to Bouchez, the guy on the right of the party, to leave a free vote on abortion true to MR's liberal values.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #665 on: July 14, 2020, 08:34:45 AM »

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2020/07/12/n-va-supremo-bart-de-wever-makes-abortion-issue-a-no-go-forcing/

The end of the "Arizona talks" or a new beginning?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #666 on: July 14, 2020, 02:28:57 PM »
« Edited: July 15, 2020, 11:44:05 AM by Zinneke »

How they voted on abortion :



cdH ended up abstaining.


Honestly, in retrospect, the Arizona coalition was the one that made sense from the start. PS essentially played itself off-side by putting the exclusive on N-VA. From then on it was up to sp.a and cdH to make up the numbers as "left" parties in a right-wing government, and I think there was a compromise to be made : no turning back any socio-economic reforms of Michel I, in exchange for Rousseau's demands. Unfortunately the three pied pipers of the parties with ministers in the Current Affairs Government still have no incentive to form a coalition that will carry the time bomb of an economic recession.

With that said, I'm now personally extremely aware and in the acceptance phase about state breakup and seperate development being on the table. These two political classes need a giant kick up the arse and VB being insurmountable on one side and PTB on the other is a sure way to express that. The politicians of this country will be forced into partition by De Wever and as long as Brussels has its corridor with Wallonia, Flanders is kicked out of the EU and Wallo-Brux take less of the debt (that really should be inflated away anyway with Corona...but fat chance with the German ordo-liberals controlling the ECB), I'm happy seeing a political class so contemptible collectively commit suicide. I'm not a major asset holder, I'm actively trying to emigrate, and push my parents to go back to their home country. This country is fubar and it will be an interesting sociological experiment to see it implode, if it hasn't been already.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #667 on: July 16, 2020, 06:08:38 AM »

Far-left virologist Marc Van Ranst gets death threats from the far-right. He is under police protection now.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #668 on: July 16, 2020, 10:53:46 AM »

If the main parties get forced into a choice of coalition between the ptb or vb, which would they go for first?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #669 on: July 16, 2020, 01:30:38 PM »
« Edited: July 16, 2020, 02:26:11 PM by Zinneke »

If the main parties get forced into a choice of coalition between the ptb or vb, which would they go for first?

VB I would say - all the broadly neo-liberal, clientelist parties are more concerned about their assets, their economic rights and specific constituencies, than letting a bunch of bona fide neo-fascists into the institutions. There is a scenario of MR joining a Flemish Right coalition in a similar way they joined the 2014 kamikaze after saying "never with N-VA" (notice how PS have also backtracked on their cordon with NVA). And then in the current parliament the Right outnumber the Left enough to survive for a couple of MR to Défi defections. I don't expect the Cordon Sanitaire to last if N-VA and VB get a majority in Flanders.

 And then PTB, unlike VB, are usually the ones to rule themselves out - their goals are to either take over completely or collapse what they see as bourgeois institutions. VB are open to at least have longer talks.
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bigic
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« Reply #670 on: July 16, 2020, 08:52:31 PM »

But AFAIK PS considered a coalition or C&S with PTB in Wallonia? As well as N-VA with VB
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Zinneke
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« Reply #671 on: July 17, 2020, 01:28:02 AM »
« Edited: July 17, 2020, 07:06:51 AM by Zinneke »

But AFAIK PS considered a coalition or C&S with PTB in Wallonia? As well as N-VA with VB

PS and ECOLO had negotiations with PTB for about an hour or two. Both sides went into it as a show : PS-ECOLO needed to show their left-wing voters that they tried with PTB before going for cdh or MR, and that they thus had no choice to ally with a right-wing party.
PTB released a video denouncing the two parties as not wanting radical enough change. I think that episode confirmed what I already knew, but what some people on the left in Francophone Belgium don't want to accept : PTB are not a party of government - and they don't want to be just right now. There'll likely be a split in the party in strategy if they gain some more seats and weigh up another Red-Red-Green in Wallonia.

N-VA's negotiations with VB lasted for a few weeks even though both knew it was unfeasible, although as ex VLD leader Rutten revealed, they were at the point of offering VLD a place in a right-wing coalition.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #672 on: July 17, 2020, 10:26:43 AM »

On a scale of Czechoslovakia to Yugoslavia, how messy would a VB driven break up of Belgium be?
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #673 on: July 17, 2020, 11:03:57 AM »

If the main parties get forced into a choice of coalition between the ptb or vb, which would they go for first?
VB in Flanders
ptb in Wallonia
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warandwar
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« Reply #674 on: July 17, 2020, 11:04:11 AM »

https://www.rtbf.be/info/belgique/detail_le-roi-philippe-exprime-au-congo-ses-profonds-regrets-pour-les-blessures-du-passe?id=10532781

The King has expressed his deepest regrets for the crimes committed in Belgium's colonial past in RD Congo. He is the first royal to do so officially via a letter addressed to the Congolese President, Félix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo.
Any movement on returning all the artefacts they've plundered and placed on display in the "Africa" museum? I'm sure divesting continued colonial holdings and paying reparations is too much of a lift.
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