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  Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019
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Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019  (Read 50416 times)
Zinneke
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« Reply #575 on: February 15, 2020, 06:34:54 am »
« edited: February 15, 2020, 06:54:54 am by Zinneke »

Geens has resigned as informateur. He was hoping to bring the PS and N-VA together but Magnette made it clear this morning it wasn't going to happen and the N-VA continue their own Calimero act of "We're willing to negotiate, but only on our terms".

King must give it to an NVA official if only for symbolic reasons now. A real sense that new elections are the only thing that will happen.

Magnette also talked about a potential referendum for the first time, which is a Rubicon for Francophone politicians, that personally I am glad they have finally crossed.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #576 on: February 15, 2020, 12:13:31 pm »

Geens has resigned as informateur. He was hoping to bring the PS and N-VA together but Magnette made it clear this morning it wasn't going to happen and the N-VA continue their own Calimero act of "We're willing to negotiate, but only on our terms".

King must give it to an NVA official if only for symbolic reasons now. A real sense that new elections are the only thing that will happen.

Magnette also talked about a potential referendum for the first time, which is a Rubicon for Francophone politicians, that personally I am glad they have finally crossed.
In theory could a N-VAer become pm?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #577 on: February 16, 2020, 07:24:42 am »

Geens has resigned as informateur. He was hoping to bring the PS and N-VA together but Magnette made it clear this morning it wasn't going to happen and the N-VA continue their own Calimero act of "We're willing to negotiate, but only on our terms".

King must give it to an NVA official if only for symbolic reasons now. A real sense that new elections are the only thing that will happen.

Magnette also talked about a potential referendum for the first time, which is a Rubicon for Francophone politicians, that personally I am glad they have finally crossed.
In theory could a N-VAer become pm?

Yes, its been touted before and after elections when before 2014 it was unthinkable.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #578 on: February 16, 2020, 10:48:56 am »

I'm hoping for new elections here. Problem is that only the far-right and far-left and maybe the Greens will continue to grow. And that the traditional parties + N-VA keep falling in opinion polls, making the deadlock much more problematic. Elections aren't the solution to this government formation crisis. It will only make them tougher, but maybe it isn't a bad thing that "extremist" parties, and the consequent left parties will grow. Traditional parties deserve a historic loss after this debacle.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #579 on: February 16, 2020, 05:35:08 pm »

Geens has resigned as informateur. He was hoping to bring the PS and N-VA together but Magnette made it clear this morning it wasn't going to happen and the N-VA continue their own Calimero act of "We're willing to negotiate, but only on our terms".

King must give it to an NVA official if only for symbolic reasons now. A real sense that new elections are the only thing that will happen.

Magnette also talked about a potential referendum for the first time, which is a Rubicon for Francophone politicians, that personally I am glad they have finally crossed.

A referendum on what?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #580 on: February 16, 2020, 05:49:54 pm »

Geens has resigned as informateur. He was hoping to bring the PS and N-VA together but Magnette made it clear this morning it wasn't going to happen and the N-VA continue their own Calimero act of "We're willing to negotiate, but only on our terms".

King must give it to an NVA official if only for symbolic reasons now. A real sense that new elections are the only thing that will happen.

Magnette also talked about a potential referendum for the first time, which is a Rubicon for Francophone politicians, that personally I am glad they have finally crossed.

A referendum on what?

"The institutional future of the country"

The issue is that its unclear whether NVA voters vote NVA to be sure to have a right-wing federal government or genuinely out of a wish to one day secede or stop transfers. Most studies on their voters show only 10-15% of NVA voters actually prioritising institutional reform.

The francophones are ready to campaign on that ground. They already spoke as a united front defending Brussels' regional status when NVA came out with their ridiculous plan for having two citizenship models for one city. They want to see if the NVA will escalate enough to potentially alienate risk-averse voters.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #581 on: February 17, 2020, 11:25:48 am »

New elections seem to get likelier and likelier - 266 days without a government. Our media reports that the formation process is completely blocked, and that pressure for new elections is rising. The far-right clearly wants new elections. Others are more hesistant about it but secretly preparing for it. I think no-one believes in a solution.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #582 on: February 17, 2020, 11:51:43 am »

Five options:

1. Purple - Yellow is death. PS said radically no. N-VA called for the formation of a Flemish front against the French-speaking Social Democrats

2. Vivaldi: CD&V says radically no. "We are allied with N-VA", they say. We want a majority on Flemish side. There is always Défi and cdH that can jump in to give purple - green a majority

3. Purple-green + Défi + cdH. This is something the Open VLD wouldn't want. It would ignore the Flemish, because all Walloon parties would be part of it, while only two out of the 7 Flemish parties would join Purple-green + Défi + cdH. Open VLD is right-wing so they have said this is not an option, because they would surely be decimated in 2024.

4. New elections: Right now, most likeliest option because it has no sense to go on. But no-one wants it either, because there would be two, maybe three winners. The far-right, the greens and the far-left. All other parties would lose according to opinion polls, and there is no majority for new elections.

5. Continuing the deadlock and waiting for 2024: Another option, is to go on with Wilmès 1 and continue that. But that would economically be a disaster for Belgium. All other parties could pretend to talk, or could be in an election modus for the rest of the 5 years, but if that happens radical parties will win in 2024. But it's an option i have considered too. Does anyone want this. Maybe not as an option, but it could inevitably happen. At least, we would improve our own Guinness World Record with it.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #583 on: February 17, 2020, 05:33:08 pm »

https://www.7sur7.be/dossier-formation-gouvernementale/magnette-nous-ne-voulons-pas-construire-des-fronts-nous-voulons-construire-des-ponts~aaa559e9/?utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1P1UPeI_SakVKe_FdPzWm_OkUzy6QHUMH8iuPB2xzbe0TxvhzQWJh26OM&referrer=https://www.facebook.com/

PS chairman: "We don't want to build fronts, we want to build bridges."

Notice the divide between CD&V and cdH and s.pa and PS. I'm sometimes ashamed of being Flemish. I'm proud of Wallonia. Paul Magnette is a hero to having say no to puirple-yellow. If it depended on s.pa we would already have an asocial purple-yellow government.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #584 on: February 19, 2020, 05:43:35 am »

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/02/18/rondvraag-nieuwe-verkiezingen/

PVDA + VB + Jean-Marie Dedecker wants new elections. N-VA is undecided. Other parties want to try out the Vivaldi coalition. Although CD&V wants a majority on Flemish side, and that's technically not possible, without N-VA, PVDA and VB.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #585 on: February 24, 2020, 01:29:52 pm »



Rutten not seeking re-election. New chairman elections underway. Open VLD might drop to 10% next time accordding to polls.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #586 on: February 24, 2020, 04:28:01 pm »

There you have why we will not get out of this crisis. Any person who compromises will be labelled a traitor to the Flemish nation or on the Francophone side a dismantler of the Belgian state. The kind of people that read Dedecker for in depth analysis (not necessarily targeting you Laki, but your workerism is part of the problem) will hang people out to dry. Rutten may be a careerist but at least she's not a coward who sits on the sidelines and shouts.
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PSOL
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« Reply #587 on: February 24, 2020, 05:44:03 pm »

There you have why we will not get out of this crisis. Any person who compromises will be labelled a traitor to the Flemish nation or on the Francophone side a dismantler of the Belgian state. The kind of people that read Dedecker for in depth analysis (not necessarily targeting you Laki, but your workerism is part of the problem) will hang people out to dry. Rutten may be a careerist but at least she's not a coward who sits on the sidelines and shouts.
The PDVA/PTB is for a unitary state though? Aren’t they?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #588 on: February 25, 2020, 11:08:24 am »

There you have why we will not get out of this crisis. Any person who compromises will be labelled a traitor to the Flemish nation or on the Francophone side a dismantler of the Belgian state. The kind of people that read Dedecker for in depth analysis (not necessarily targeting you Laki, but your workerism is part of the problem) will hang people out to dry. Rutten may be a careerist but at least she's not a coward who sits on the sidelines and shouts.
The PDVA/PTB is for a unitary state though? Aren’t they?

Yep, but only on their terms. They are an authentically Marxist-Leninist party, their supporters just don't know it yet.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #589 on: March 04, 2020, 11:41:52 am »

There you have why we will not get out of this crisis. Any person who compromises will be labelled a traitor to the Flemish nation or on the Francophone side a dismantler of the Belgian state. The kind of people that read Dedecker for in depth analysis (not necessarily targeting you Laki, but your workerism is part of the problem) will hang people out to dry. Rutten may be a careerist but at least she's not a coward who sits on the sidelines and shouts.
The PDVA/PTB is for a unitary state though? Aren’t they?
They're for a unitary state, and they're not a marxist-leninist party. That's fake. They're a marxist party, democratic socialist, socialist, ecosocialist, feminist, name it, but they're not an authoritarian marxist-leninist party. I would refuse to join such a party.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #590 on: March 04, 2020, 11:43:47 am »

Emergency government talks because of corona... Now we have corona infecting people in Belgium, they want a government as soon as possible. They are afraid of an economic crisis, and want to be able to intervene more, or deploy a policy. The media has called it already the possible corona government.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #591 on: March 14, 2020, 05:13:52 am »

Polls. A lot of this was done pre-Corona lockdown.

WALLONIE

PS 25,5%
MR 19,6%
PTB 18,6%
Ecolo 15,5%
cdH 7,5%
Défi +0,4%

FLANDRE

Vlaams Belang 28%
N-VA 20,7%
CD&V 11,7%
Open Vld 10,3%
sp.a 9,6%
PVDA (aile flamande PTB) 9,3%

BRUXELLES

PS 20,5%
Ecolo 20,3%
MR 17,6%
PTB 12,2%
Défi 10%
cdH 3,8%
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Umengus
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« Reply #592 on: March 14, 2020, 10:01:35 am »

Polls. A lot of this was done pre-Corona lockdown.

WALLONIE

PS 25,5%
MR 19,6%
PTB 18,6%
Ecolo 15,5%
cdH 7,5%
Défi +0,4%

FLANDRE

Vlaams Belang 28%
N-VA 20,7%
CD&V 11,7%
Open Vld 10,3%
sp.a 9,6%
PVDA (aile flamande PTB) 9,3%

BRUXELLES

PS 20,5%
Ecolo 20,3%
MR 17,6%
PTB 12,2%
Défi 10%
cdH 3,8%

In flanders: VB + PVDA= 37 % wow, for a rich region...
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #593 on: March 14, 2020, 10:10:17 am »

Polls. A lot of this was done pre-Corona lockdown.

WALLONIE

PS 25,5%
MR 19,6%
PTB 18,6%
Ecolo 15,5%
cdH 7,5%
Défi +0,4%

FLANDRE

Vlaams Belang 28%
N-VA 20,7%
CD&V 11,7%
Open Vld 10,3%
sp.a 9,6%
PVDA (aile flamande PTB) 9,3%

BRUXELLES

PS 20,5%
Ecolo 20,3%
MR 17,6%
PTB 12,2%
Défi 10%
cdH 3,8%

In flanders: VB + PVDA= 37 % wow, for a rich region...
People are fed up with the political system and lockdown. (not the corona one).
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Zinneke
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« Reply #594 on: March 14, 2020, 04:51:08 pm »
« Edited: March 14, 2020, 05:09:45 pm by Zinneke »

Which is why PS, NVA have been negotiating and will form a unity government freezing out VB and PTB. De Wever wanted to be PM but it makes no sense in this crisis situation especially when Wilmès is a) bilingual b) popular on both sides of the border and c) knows all the tabs.

De Wever and the N-VA's behaviour has been utter sh**te throughout.
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Estrella
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« Reply #595 on: March 14, 2020, 05:32:11 pm »

Do they plan something like unity government for the duration of the corona, then resume negotiations, drag them on forever and let Wilmès stay in power until kingdom come or (more likely) N-VA gets fed up?

Anyway, here's an idea for a bet:
What will be the first dubious SHOCK POLL! to come after the grand coalition is formed?
a) VB at 40% in Flanders
b) PTB+Ecolo at 40% in Wallonia and/or Brussels
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Umengus
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« Reply #596 on: March 14, 2020, 05:46:02 pm »

Do they plan something like unity government for the duration of the corona, then resume negotiations, drag them on forever and let Wilmès stay in power until kingdom come or (more likely) N-VA gets fed up?

Anyway, here's an idea for a bet:
What will be the first dubious SHOCK POLL! to come after the grand coalition is formed?
a) VB at 40% in Flanders
b) PTB+Ecolo at 40% in Wallonia and/or Brussels


a) no (maybe 30 but not 40)
b) no (ecolo, at the power in Wallonie, is going down. But PTB at 20 is possible but only in polls. Not on election day)

The unity gov will be not only for one year but beyond.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #597 on: March 15, 2020, 04:35:07 am »

Yeah I'd say PTB are really polling at 15% right now. No way on election day are they actually getting past 20% bar a massive event...but well this is a massive event.

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Zinneke
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« Reply #598 on: March 15, 2020, 06:50:11 am »
« Edited: March 15, 2020, 07:44:14 am by Zinneke »

For some reason talks failed and PS and ECOLO - groen will lend support  to this government.

PS and NVA... Utter clowns.

EDIT : looks like N-VA maintained that they wanted an N-VA PM...If they had the public interest at heart and thought that Wilmes was not up to the job, why not nominate a technocrat? or Health Minister Maggie de Block?
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #599 on: March 15, 2020, 08:25:21 am »

Wait so what will be the composition of the government?

If there is a time for a temporary unity government it is this one given the crisis situation combined with the deadlock. In fact I would even invite PTB/PvdA and VB to said unity government; the whole point of a unity government is to have no (meaningful) opposition.
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