Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

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I think they've made a gaffe, because it seems like the pact is going to be signed anyway. They've brought the topic in the spotlights, but the far-right was able to campaign hard on it, and it was a succesful campaign, and i think the N-VA felt the need to defend their right-wing flank, but now they have two problems. The backlash might've pushed some voters back to OVLD en CD&V, while the right flank might not be satisfied at all, because the prime minister is travelling to Marrakesh and most likely the liberal and christian democratic parties in the government will have the additional support of the left-wing opposition parties.

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The party that comes off worse off than this, is of course, MR, who are basically being subject to the exact narrative that the opposition had concocted i.e that they are the stooges of the N-VA. They're heading for total obliteration in Brussels and potentially losing their majority in Wallonia (although they should still hold up well). N-VA chief "mistake" is humiliating the one relevant ally they had. It might be a calculated move to put regional decentralisation back on the agenda.

We are heading for a political blockage on a higher scale than 2010-2012 IMO. All three regions will vote differently or have different party configurations. Unless liberals+greens+christian democrats can form an interesting majority, it looks very bad...

The coalition in Antwerp and the opening PS left for a PS - N-VA hints towards a soc dem + liberal + nationalist coalition possibly. The possibility of a green + liberal + national coalition is now very unlikely, which some thought (incl. myself) was one of the most plausible scenario's, but after what happened in Antwerp and now in recent days, i think that option is off the table, especially because Ecolo is even more fiercely against N-VA than the Greens.

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“I’m going to Marrakech, but I’ll respect the constitution”

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Teargas and watercannon against Hi-Viz protesters in Brussels

Migration Compact: Belgian government meets as fall of government looms

Bannon and Le Pen were also in the country



from left to right: Steve Bannon, Tom Van Grieken (chairman of Flemish Interest - far-right), Marine Le Pen (chairwoman of FN and French presidential candidate).

campaign poster translated: Protect Our Europe. Stop UN-suicide pact.

New polling:

Grand Baromètre: Ecolo, premier parti de Bruxelles

N-VA largest in Flanders and make gains since provincial elections back again. CD&V lose a bit. Far-right and far-left make gains too.
The Greens are the largest in Brussels regions, followed closely by MR.
PS stay largest in French-speaking region, while MR seems to lose a bit. Gains for the Green here as well.

Compared to last elections: losses for traditional parties, while the Greens, far-right, far-left and Défi are projected to make gains in number of seats.

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Thats not Modrikamen, I think its Radim Fiala

Okay, you are right. I saw no information on the news websites, and i thought he looked similar to Modrikanen (and knew he had ties with Bannon over the newly formed European group: "The Movement").

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https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2018/12/08/_road-to-minority-government-being-paved/

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Looking at the current composition of the Belgian parliament now that N-VA has left, could PS and CdH support the current government so it gets a majority again? Or they have no incentive to do so? (particularly PS)

cDH probably yes or more, but they won't be part of the government, but will support most measures i think (correct me if i'm wrong)
s.pa has already said that they will be constructive when it needs to, but that they won't offer blank cheques to the minority government. Same does apply for the greens. I assume PS does the same thing here.
N-VA have said to be constructive as well, mostly on issues that were already agreed before.

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Some more articles

King Filip has accepted resignation of N-VA ministers

"It won't be a walk in the park"

"We've been turned out of the government"

Opposition parties offer minority government no blank cheques

"Important crossroads for nationalists"

Respect for Open VLD (dutch-speaking liberal), MR (french-speaking liberal) and CD&V (dutch-speaking catholics) for finishing the government, because that will be very hard to do, and will hurt them cause N-VA have now what they want: be in opposition and going after them. It's such a dirty trick to do.

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I have my doubts over this poll. It has big differences with the other poll two weeks ago.

Nationalists remain the biggest in new poll



Far-left lose a lot here, but it doesn't make sense, and i have a hard time believing that the Greens will have 16% of the vote. Socialists also only 9% which is also their most terrible poll in three years. Really bad poll for the red political parties or the left-wing in general. Every right-wing party makes gains here, which is weird because usually the opposition gains and that's the left-wing.

Greens top the poll in Brussels



Greens surge a lot, which is weird because the Flemish greens are now independent in Brussels (and even they have 4% of the vote). Good poll for the far-left here. Terrible poll for liberals and social democrats. Communists almost bigger than social democrats. Nationalists gain a bit.

Flemish nationalist Theo Francken is Flanders’ most popular politician



In French-speaking Belgium, big losses for liberals and social democrats, big gains for communists and greens!

Overall, best poll ever (by far) for the Greens, because in every region they've never polled as high as now.

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Poll was partly taken before the government crisis.

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National Bank: “Fall of government would be a bad sign”

Socialist no confidence motion to bring down Michel II?

PM Michel rejects "N-VA blackmail"

Government could fall again, and this would cause snap elections in january. They'll probably right now file a motion of no confidence, which seems to be supported by socialists, greens, nationalists, far-left and far-right.

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Government has fallen. PM goes to the King to file his resignment after only 8 days.

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Why do the Flemish Dutch speaking parties even bother with contesting the elections in Brussels? (other than the N-VA of course)

Wouldn't it be better for them to simply endorse their sister Walloon equivalent? (so CD&V endorses CDH, Open VLD endorses MR and sp.a endorses PS)

They have a small percentage of the vote, but they still act as a spoiler for their more relevant Walloon equivalent.

Partly because those parties might have a slightly different program than their sister parties, and partly because different people are candidate on a list, and partly because those people might vote for the only Flemish party that contests the elections, instead of voting for their sister party (i think).

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Apparently, during his last speech, Michel tried to do some concessions to the left, with doing a lot of ambitious leftist proposals that stunned political analists in order to save his government. But it didn't help because the government falls. Snap elections aren't likely though, because the experts said that this is a government in current affairs, which is maybe a good thing, as elections in january (three elections in one year) would have a bit too much, and wouldn't have offered anything as it is very unlikely a government would have formed between january and may (as they would want to wait what the results would have been for regional elections).

The Flemish liberal chairwoman did sent a tweet where she explained (in different words) that she wasn't very happy with the concessions the prime minister offered to the left, so this once again proves that the Flemish liberals are more right-wing on economic issues than the MR.

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Apparently, during his last speech, Michel tried to do some concessions to the left, with doing a lot of ambitious leftist proposals that stunned political analists in order to save his government. But it didn't help because the government falls. Snap elections aren't likely though, because the experts said that this is a government in current affairs, which is maybe a good thing, as elections in january (three elections in one year) would have a bit too much, and wouldn't have offered anything as it is very unlikely a government would have formed between january and may (as they would want to wait what the results would have been for regional elections).

The Flemish liberal chairwoman did sent a tweet where she explained (in different words) that she wasn't very happy with the concessions the prime minister offered to the left, so this once again proves that the Flemish liberals are more right-wing on economic issues than the MR.

So the government will just continue as a caretaker government until the next election?

"A government in current affairs" is an odd phrase, but I assume it just means a caretaker government.

Yes it's a caretaker government. My english sadly isn't that good. I just saw that our media named it like this in their english articles.

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N-VA, sp.a, VLD coalition sealed in Antwerp.

Clever move to do this in the midst of the political crisis.

Bad news for non-car owners in Antwerp though.

EDIT : And the King officially accept Michel's resignation.

Greens being criticized for not even wanting to talk with N-VA in Antwerp as they criticize the agreement for it not being green, while they actually had a chance to enter coalition and to work on a "relatively" green agreement.

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N-VA, sp.a, VLD coalition sealed in Antwerp.

Clever move to do this in the midst of the political crisis.

Bad news for non-car owners in Antwerp though.

EDIT : And the King officially accept Michel's resignation.

I don't know, the s.pa seem to get a lot of backfire.

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S&V leader Dries Van Langenhove will be the top VB candidate in the province of Vlaams-Brabant in the upcoming federal election, but will supposedly sit as an independent in parliament if elected.

Smart move from Van Grieken. I think he will pull voters away from N-VA and VB lacked a good candidate to contest the elections in the province of Vlaams Brabant against the popular N-VA former secretary of state of immigration Theo Francken. He almost certainly has that seat.

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Vlaams Belang to give far right activist parliamentary platform

That interview yesterday will become one of the most notorious ones in Belgian political history. I've never seen something like that. Unfortunately, a lot of you can't speak dutch, but people who speak / understand dutch, definitely watch it! It already has 200k views on YouTube. I've never seen such a hostile / brutal interview, and the attacks by DVL were very direct and brutal while the news anchor / moderator was kind of suggestive as well. The reactions on social media are of course very polarized, but i've literally never seen something like this. I couldn't believe it was happening when i watched it.

The far right activist confirmed he was working on a new media channel: "a news channel that will counter your (VRT) fake news and lies" he told VRT TV.

Especially that part of it (or the Oswald Mosley part of the interview, where he was criticized for quoting Oswald Mosley in a speech).

It's sad however that political parties give little to no chances to young people, and that he can now claim to represent the 'Flemish youth'. He will probably become the youngest member in parliament. (25 years, 26 next year).

Politics is rapidly polarizing everywhere, and Belgium is no exception to it.

Schoolchildren play truant for the climate!

Climate change: “It’s only going to happen when they are dead!”

True heroes for me.

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That interview was indeed kind of unreal, especially for someone from the Netherlands who views the Flemish as generally more polite and less direct than us! It was clear the tv lady wanted to do a hitjob on DVL. She was way too hostile and definitely not neutral, erroneously stating that he is broke (which he himself never claimed) and suggesting this would be why he is a candidate for parliament. Of course he wouldn't respond kindly to it. I'm sure this will only help him, just like Tim Verheyden's attempt to take down DVL in Pano didn't work.

I agree with the first part. The news moderator (or how you call it) definitely did a hitjob on him, but so does most of the media. They're generally very critical of right-wing candidates while they are very polite for liberal or social democrat candidates (and never put more critical questions after they've posed one, while they do that all the time with right-wing (or far-left) candidates and interrupt them and don't with liberal or socialist candidates). I agree the media isn't neutral.

The suggestion that he was broke is something he didn't claim. What he did though was asking for donations to finance his organisation, which are indeed two different things. The anchor referred to that. Of course, there was also an argument over whether he was identified as a suspect in the investigation that was triggered by the VRT probe. And apparently they were both wrong about that. He was in fact identified as a suspect, but he didn't know, while the media claimed he did knew (which was in fact not true). But he made a claim as well that was false, and always has claimed that he wasn't that person on Discord or that Discord account was fake. I mean both the news moderator and DVL lost a lot of credibility again after that interview. I also didn't like his attitude or her's. Usually, a debate is agressive between two politicians, but this one was more aggressive and it was between a news moderator and a right-wing politician. I think it shows you a perfect example of how times and the political environment is changing and that politics is rapidly polarizing.

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It did the opposite of what he wanted. The attempt to take him down (there was no need to, as he wasn't known) just made him big. Because of that, he's likely to enter parliament. This would've never happened without Pano. It's a catastrophic mistake, just like Trump was a creation of the media as well, and both feed each other.

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Yes, the VRT interview with VDL was confrontational, but its more a part of the growing editorial line of the public broadcasters across Europe to try and compete on youtube. People watch 2 minutes clips of "Jordan Peterson CRUSHES feminazi lizard person", not whole 40min interviews anymore. So both VDL and VRT enter a silent pact to make the interview confrontational, meaning the VRT interviewer inevitably adopts a left-wing editorial line. Its all about views.

I don't believe in conspiracy theories.

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Usually, not so popular politicians head the European list or go to Europe for a mandate because they aren't suspectible to the opinion of voters as much. And it's partly also because Belgium has too few politicians for too many mandates or g'vments.

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Lots of protests are expected for the next weeks. I'm just not sure about the general strike, as i haven't heard about it a lot (maybe it's something in particular for Wallonia?)

✊ THURSDAY 24/1:
8:30: Casseroles & paillettes pour le climat & contre le CETA
10:30: Third Klimaatmars voor een betere toekomst with Youth For Climate

✊ SATURDAY / SUNDAY 26/1 + 27/1
Yellow vest movement protests

✊ SUNDAY 27/1
13:00: Pas de loi climat? Geen Wetstraat!
14:00: start of Rise for Climate - 4th edition - European march

✊ THURSDAY 31/1
10:30: Fourth Klimaatmars voor een betere toekomst with Youth For Climate

✊ SATURDAY / SUNDAY 2/2 + 3/2
Yellow vest movement protests (?)

✊ THURSDAY 7/2
10:30: Fifth Klimaatmars voor een betere toekomst with Youth For Climate

✊ SATURDAY / SUNDAY 9/2 + 10/2
Yellow vest movement protests (?)

✊ WEDNESDAY 13/2
General strike from three main unions (ACV, ABVV en ACVLB), in cooperation with yellow vests

✊ THURSDAY 14/2
10:30: Sixth Klimaatmars voor een betere toekomst with Youth For Climate
10:30: Students for Climate join Youth For Climate (2k going already on Facebook, and actions planned in Brussels, Ghent, Louvain-La Neuve, Antwerp and Mons)

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35,000 play truant for the climate

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Belgian climate minister denounces protest marches as plot

Belgian Climate Minister Denounces Protest Marches as Plot

Belgian minister backtracks on school-strike conspiracy claims

End of her political career! Even international media reports about this gaffe of our Belgian climate minister.

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She resigned. The press conference was a very emotional one. One i will remember for a very long time.

Minister lied: state intelligence didn't tell her climate teens are being manipulated