Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

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18 to 22 year olds in Flanders

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Most loved politician between 18 and 22



And most hated one

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New poll

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For who knows some dutch (or wants to practice it a bit), i found this article

Source: DM

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Seems like VLD will be halfed in Antwerp, Limbourg & East Flanders. Their best province seems to be West Flanders where they drop 1%, from 13% to 12% in this poll, probably due to strong (new) mayors here and the fact that this is N-VA weakest province (less people moving from VLD to N-VA). Farmers class and self-employed class probably are better retained by VLD here.

But elsewhere they're halfed. In Antwerp they get 4% which would be potentially below electoral threshold to get a seat, while in Limbourg they get 6%, potentially falling below the required total of number of votes they need to get 1 seat.

VLD their best province West Flanders would be a first. I don't think that has ever happened before, because we used to be a catholic stronghold. They've declined in recent years quite a bit, esp in federal elections and have less strong faces nowadays.

What happened is that - because it's the conservatives weakest province as well and conservatives have historically had trouble in this more rural area because probably too neocon policies - the self-employed and farmers class stick more with OVLD or VB instead of N-VA here. Less ppl swing from OVLD to N-VA whereas in other provinces ppl swing from OVLD to N-VA and from N-VA to VB.

Vooruit getting 20.2% is also surprising, their best province also being West Flanders, which also would be a first given again this was a catholic stronghold. That would be a strong overperformance here, and indeed the chairwoman of Vooruit is from West Flanders. That's a good sign for her.

Communists could get their first seat ever in West-Flanders, this being historically the weakest province to crack. Same for Groen who has a regional face though as chair and would probably be able to defend their one seat succesfully.

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New poll, 100 days before election

VB:
Best poll ever? At least from the past 20 years, because i don't have a full record of polls held prior to 2003 and 2007. But def. the best poll for them since than. Chair Van Grieken is the third most popular politician of Flanders.

N-VA:
Worst poll in 10-15 years. They rarely fell below 20%, this is the second time in at least 10 yrs it happens. Chair De Wever is the most popular politician of Flanders (but he consistently tops that for basically over 10 years already).

Vooruit
A bit down compared to the controversies and with Rousseau out, but still winning quite a bit compared to last time but not as much as earlier. Would be a better election result than 2019, and more on par with 2009 and 2014 but nothing exceptional, and they risk even losing more momentum. Rousseau - despite being disliked a lot by youngsters in a recent youth poll, second to only the far right chair - is the fifth most popular politician in Flanders. Depraetere who took over is only 19th in the ranking.

CD&V

Slight recovery from the usual atrocious polls in the past years. Probably their best poll in quite a while, backed up by the other poll taken this year. Probably benefitting from some of the issues such as agriculture that are gaining momentum, and a more competent leader. They have the 5th and 8th most popular politicians of Flanders, one of them being popular in West Flanders for basically 20 years already.

PVDA:

Second best poll ever, only beaten by the other poll taken from this year by 0.1%. This is an excellent poll once again. Still need to see the result before I believe it because this is more than doubling the previous result which was already their best result ever. Chairman Hedebouw is the fourth most politician of Flanders at the moment (despite being Walloon) and Jos D'Haese (below 30 yrs) also in top 10, in particular among the youth due to his TikTok presence.

Open VLD

Bad, and their worst poll from this polling firm (which actually has a liberal bias since it consistently shows them doing a tad better than other polls). But still horrible poll. Prime minister De Croo is the second most popular politician in Belgium but this doesn't translate in a good election result (and they have no bench anymore, with rumours already indicating De Croo wants to work in Europe due to the bad polling after the election).

Green

Not a great poll as well. Their only great election really is like 1999 when they had all momentum (due to a major ecology crisis in the full campaign), and they've never really gotten a cycle where everything went perfect since than, one cycle where they fought for their survival as a party that they got over the electoral threshold could also be seen as a win and generally slow but steady growth in the 21st century. Polling really well in 2019 but screwed over by bad momentum in the final phase of the campaign. This cycle in particular being absolutely horrible for them, comparable to the horrible 1999-2004: the only other time they were in the government. Not really a party that admittably has gotten RNG on their site throughout their existence.

Transwoman Petra De Sutter though might save the party as she's basically the only Green politician that does well in the personality polls, being the 7th most popular politician of Flanders. And she's generally seen as very competent - even by other government parties, whereas the other green politicians basically messed everything up they could've messed up (and she's admittably also my favourite non-PVDA politician atm).

The co-chairs Nadja Naji and Jeremie Vaneeckhout (Brussels and West-Flanders) probably aren't that well known and aren't necessarily unpopular but overall not well known.

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For government participation, chances

CD&V: 99.9%
I cannot see a scenario where they won't be in the government. Unless they aren't needed in a centrist coalition (very unlikely) or when far right + N-VA have a majority (impossible for federal, due to no Walloon counterparts).

Vooruit: 99.9%
Almost certain, unless far-right + N-VA have a majority which is again impossible federally, and they're needed in every other coalition, including with N-VA. N-VA even wants a government with them explicitly, preferring socialists over VLD due to the GLB / BDW feud.

Open VLD: 95%
They might do so bad that they will strategically skip, but again most likely needed in every coalition unless far right + N-VA. And they'll most likely govern anyways since they campaign on good governance, taking responsability etc. They probably also still would govern even if MR would be excluded on request by N-VA (tho i doubt they can afford that if they want a majority on both parts of the country), or they'll need the Greens incl. Ecolo.

Green: 85%
Likely in the government anyways, because again there aren't that many options, and they and Ecolo always would joint-enter (not separate), and liberal-socdem-christian democrat wouldn't have enough to exclude them. Even N-VA might not afford to not include them, but its gonna be either them or MR if one is excluded.

N-VA: 50%
Coin flip at this point. They're likely needed for a stable government but they're tying these talks with flemish talks which might backfire.

VB: 1%
Can't see a scenario really, barring very unlikely things

PVDA: 0.01%
Only scenario is when CD&V/Les Engages, Groen/Ecolo & Vooruit/s.pa and them have enough and even than i doubt it.

For PM chances

MR: Wilmes would be a good candidate, but she is a candidate for Europe. GLB is seen as a dick by most. N-VA would block it, but leftist parties would prefer someone else Maybe someone else could. I'm less familiar with Walloon politicians, but i think if N-VA doesn't govern, it's going to be a flemish PM again due to lack of majority on flemish side. Lahbib also has too much baggage and gaffes that she'd not be a great pick (incl. the Crimea vacation controversy). Maybe Reynders returns from retirement/europe because he'd be more acceptable to N-VA if they need a Walloon PM in exchange for N-VA gvment participation.

PS: N-VA would block most of PS candidates, esp. Magnette. And Vivaldi 2.0 i can't see having a PS, let alone a Walloon PM due to the likely lack of majority on Flemish side.

Groen-Ecolo: Petra De Sutter is the only realistic candidate and she might have a decent chance, because probably most acceptable to N-VA and also a Flemish candidate in case of Vivaldi 2.0, generally good relations with everyone. This would also be historic since it'd be the first trans head of government worldwide? And it's not unrealistic to see it happen, as she'd have a chance to be pushed forward as a compromise candidate.

Vooruit: Connor Rousseau could maybe do it with a comeback but he's toxic, divisive and controversial atm, but it's a dark horse candidate. Frank VDB also is a possible candidate (but again also sort of divisive). Depraetere is too new for the stage. And Gennez has too much baggage too. I don't think a Vooruit PM is that realistic (Petra de Sutter or someone from VLD makes more sense).

Open VLD: De Croo 2 is the only realistic candidate, but even than with such a horrible election result probably coming in, it's not clear what would happen. Possible for Vivaldi 2.0, and maybe one of the more likely option but definitely not a given. There are other candidates on the bench but the bench definitely weakened a lot. A Lachaert comeback or some other dark horse from the right is a possibility. Ongena maybe too but he's too bland & generic i think, so this might backfire too. Rutten also is a possibility, maybe the most likely one if De Croo gives up or chooses for Europe.

CD&V: Mahdi is an option (which would be the first Belgian head of government with Arab roots. Crevits too. Esp for Vivaldi 2.0.

VB and PVDA have 0 chance for delivering a PM.

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https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1763871722183291290

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I don't mind them splitting the vote of the right wing in Wallonia tbh.

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A few minor updates :

DierAninal, the most successful animal rights party in Belgium with its 1 seat in the Brussels Regional Chamber, has just lost that seat to Écolo : Victoria Autstraet will run on the green party's list next election (and its surprising given Ecolo BXL are pro-halal and kosher animals not being stunned before).

Apparently, she had been expelled from DierAnimal in 2020, they lost their seat long ago.

With an electoral threshold, parties like these are basically pointless that only at the end split the vote of similar-minded parties. In the Netherlands, there is room for an animal rights party but there isn't in Belgium, simple. It'll always be an extra-parliamentary party that basically is not relevant.

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I think there a a increasing chance that Chez Nous will outperform polls

Maybe they are present on twitter, but they're completely ignored in (traditional) Belgian media. Seems to be just wishful thinking to me.

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I don't mind them splitting the vote of the right wing in Wallonia tbh.

You should, as increased turnout means that PTB-PVDA wins less seats.

Turnout isn't as big a factor in Belgian elections

Any factor is big enough to get noticed.

There is compulsory voting

And a vote to a party that isn't going to get above threshold isn't going to hurt PVDA-PTB. The people that will vote N-VA in Wallonia would usually vote MR or for any of the other parties like la droite, liste destexhe, chez nous or vlaams belang (don't know which ones will actually appear on the list). They're splitting the vote and ensuring the minor right-wing parties are even less likely to get over electoral threshold.

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https://twitter.com/LensVeritatis/status/1781329115712524670

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https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2024/04/19/cordon-sanitaire-mediatique-politiek-vlaams-belang-pvda/

in dutch, translated

In French-speaking Belgium you will never see or hear a direct interview with a radical right-wing politician on TV or radio. This agreement has existed for a long time between the various broadcasters and is strictly applied. The agreement does not apply to newspapers, but they also hardly publish interviews with the radical right.

According to De Meeûs, this is an important explanation why the radical right is not gaining a foothold in Wallonia. He said this in De Afspraak on Friday. "If there is a cordon in both politics and the media, then they are not alive. Then they do not actually exist."

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https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2024/04/17/franse-gemeenschapsregering-mr-ps-ecolo-crisis/

in dutch, translated

"The PVDA will emerge as the big winner," Gerlache thinks. "A variable majority is already very exceptional, but the fact that it is happening with the PVDA is a first in our country."

The one-off collaboration gives the PVDA extra ammunition in the coming campaign: "PS always tells voters that a vote for the communists is a lost vote. Last night it turned out to be just the opposite. Thanks to the support of the PVDA, PS has been able to express its will push through.”

Basically PS used PVDA-PTB to push reforms in the regional government (which is rarely done in Belgian politics since the government is PS + MR)

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Lots of talk also in Flanders about the return of Conner Rousseau.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2024/04/11/conner-rousseau-trapt-campagne-af-als-het-niet-lukt-dan-is-he/

Conner Rousseau kicks off campaign: "If I don't get elected, it's over"

If Conner Rousseau is not elected to the Flemish Parliament in the elections of June 9, he will quit politics. He said this at the start of his election campaign, in Sint-Niklaas. Yesterday, Vooruit announced that the former chairman is making his political comeback as a list pusher on the Flemish list. Last year he resigned after racist statements about the Roma.

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https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2024/03/21/jongeren-van-16-of-17-jaar-zullen-dan-toch-verplicht-moeten-gaan/

Also a somewhat controversial supreme court decision that removed de facto the option for youngsters to optionally vote in European elections as was demanded / requested / proposed by Europe. Because of our compulsory voting system, to avoid youngsters being required from turning out, a system of registering 16 and 17 year old people who wanted to vote was proposed or put in place but the Supreme Court cancelled these plans after a complaint of voter discrimination filed by an adult. Because of that, voting for European elections will be compulsory for 16 and 17 year olds as well, with many youngsters unprepared or surprised, less than three months before the election takes place.

Young people aged 16 or 17 will then have to vote in European elections

Young people aged 16 or 17 will then have to vote in the elections for the European Parliament. According to the Constitutional Court, they must be treated in the same way as all other - adult - voters. It is not yet clear whether there will also be sanctions for those who do not vote.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2024/04/20/forum-voor-democratie-thierry-baudet-komt-niet-op-verkiezingen/

Thierry Baudet's Forum for Democracy will not participate in Flemish elections after all

Forum for Democracy will then not participate in the elections. Thierry Baudet's Dutch party hoped to participate in the European elections in Flanders, but does not meet the conditions. Baudet and co. complained about this to Minister of the Interior Annelies Verlinden (CD&V).

Another fail for the megalomaniac Thierry Baudet.

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What the Flemish parties stand for

Flemish Interest:

1. Stopping migration: refugees must be received in their own region, the European external borders must be more closely guarded and an asylum and migration stop to our country.

2. Making work rewarding again: a higher minimum wage, a drastic increase in net wages (through lower taxes) and a higher minimum pension.

3. Making justice fair again: all sentences must be fully carried out. In addition, overcrowding in prisons must be tackled by allowing prisoners who do not have Belgian nationality to serve their prison sentences in their country of origin.

Open VLD:

1. Reward everyone who works, wants to work and has worked: those who work must earn at least 500 euros per month more than those who do not work, flexi-jobs must be expanded to all economic sectors and employees must be able to voluntarily work unlimited overtime without being paid extra. charge.
2. Protect and strengthen our freedoms: enshrine the right to abortion in the constitution, the right to choose euthanasia in the event of dementia must become possible, the right to surrogacy must be regulated by law.
3. Working together for a stronger country, within a strong Europe: after the elections, quickly a full-fledged government that tackles socio-economic problems instead of community disputes.

PVDA

1. Getting the money where it is: a millionaire tax of 2 percent for the richest 1 percent. In addition, the tax loopholes for multinationals must be closed.
2. Make life truly affordable: higher wages and 0 percent VAT on the shopping cart.
3. Stop corruption: abolish severance pay for MPs, fewer ministers and more unity.

Vooruit

1. More purchasing power for those who work.
2. Affordable and quality healthcare for everyone.
3. Investing in the first years of young people's lives with affordable childcare and a teacher in the classroom.

N-VA

1. Put the budgets in order by implementing necessary reforms and savings. According to the N-VA, this is policy priority number one.

2. The difference between working and not working must be at least 500 euros net. In this way, N-VA wants to get more people into work to keep our social system afloat. The party talks about, among other things, lower labor costs, but also about a benefit ceiling and a benefit standard. The party also wants to make our social system only accessible after 5 years of legal residence.

3. The N-VA is pushing for confederalism. The party wants the regions to be able to pursue their own policies with their own money, and to decide in consultation what they still want to do together. The N-VA considers confederalism to be necessary to provide Flanders with a centre-right policy.

Green

1. A fair climate policy that includes everyone. Groen wants to phase out fossil subsidies for major polluters and invest in affordable green energy from us, energy-efficient living for everyone and more nature in your neighborhood. Young people, the elderly and people who have difficulty making ends meet should be able to use public transport for just 1 euro per month.

2. Tax all income – whether it comes from wages or assets – equally. With a millionaires' tax, Groen wants to ensure that the richest 1 percent also contribute fairly.

3. Groen wants equal opportunities for everyone: in education, on the labor market, on the housing market and in society at large. The party also fights against racism and discrimination.

CD&V

1. CD&V wants to implement a major tax reform that fundamentally reduces taxes on the wages of working people. The party wants all workers to have more net leftovers at the end of the month: not just the lowest wages or the highest wages, but especially the average middle-class families and singles.
2. A better work-life balance for working families through the introduction of a family credit, a new model of parental leave, with more weeks of leave, which can also be taken up to the age of 18 (instead of the current 12 years), higher replacement incomes for less financial loss, and an extension to grandparents and superparents, so that families can be helped by relatives.
3. CD&V wants to ensure safe neighborhoods, safe stations and a safe nightlife everywhere in Flanders. This is done by investing heavily in both more officers and more nearby police to tackle small and large crime.

Other parties

BoerBurgerBelangen (BBB) - This party is the Flemish counterpart of the Dutch BoerBurgerBeweging (also BBB). The party says it wants to stand up for "farmers and citizens", the future of agriculture and "a strong structure for a sustainable society".

Blank - This party focuses on voters who do not feel represented by any other party. Their only program item? Change the electoral law so that choosing an "unallocated seat" becomes possible in the future. A blank vote could therefore lead to an empty seat in parliament. The party promises to abstain from all other bills.

Viva Palestina - This list by politician Dyab Abou Jahjah - he does not want to call it a party - is currently only available in the Brussels Region. The "recognition of the genocide in Gaza" is one of the spearheads of the list, which also aims to combat all forms of discrimination, corruption and inequality.

Volt - This party calls itself a pan-European party and focuses on European cooperation. Because today's challenges - think of migration and the climate - can only be solved internationally, or so it sounds.

For you - This party, founded by Flemish Member of Parliament Els Ampe (ex-Open VLD), wants to offer an alternative to the traditional parties. She wants to stand up for the citizen and "not for party interests" and strives for a "modest" government. Other (smaller) parties join the list, such as Vista and Vrijheid.

L'Unie - This party, founded by young people, aims to unite Belgium and "bridge the linguistic and social divides of this country". She wants to stand up for the federal and European elections throughout the country.

Party for the Trees - This party, which only represents the Flemish Parliament in the Flemish Brabant constituency, focuses on the rights and well-being of trees.

Belgische Unie - Union belge - Belgian Union - Multilingual party that strives to abolish the current federal model and restore the Belgian unitary state. The party was founded in 2002 and has always participated in elections since then, but has never come close to the electoral threshold.

-> I'm not going to do the walloon parties, zinneke can do that probably, but they'll basically be similar to their flemish counterpart, albeit sometimes to the left of the flemish counterpart.

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https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/kies24/stemtest/#/stellingen

https://www.vrt.be/nwsnwsnws/nl/stemtest/

Two (slightly) different voter tests, the upper the normal one and the lower one one adjusted for youngsters (and i don't think the latter one can be google translated), but for someone who is interested, here are some 'new' tests.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2024/04/15/de-stemtest-antwoorden-partijen/

Here also an additional article on some of the more unusual viewpoints of some of the parties on some of the questions in the voters tests.

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I'm feeling some momentum for Voor U (translated: For You) which is a party that originated from a split with Open VLD where a prominent liberal withdrew from Open VLD to create her own party out of protest or dissatisfaction with current Open VLD leadership and the lack of actual economical liberal policies being introduced in the government despite liberal participation.

But she is getting some coverage on social media and also in some of our traditional media. I doubt it will be enough to get over the electoral treshold, and her ambition to get 7% in Flanders in unrealistic but it might be enough to start having a spoiler effect on other parties.

The party focuses on the center right on small government, economic liberalism, less taxes and populism, and probably is more similar to the German FDP (german liberals) to have an idea of what kind of liberalism they are.

Good chance Voor U is the 8th highest party in Flanders. I suspect Free Palestina will be the best party in Brussels while probably Chez Nous in Wallonia for the parties that are not being polled currently in all 3 regions. I'm the least confident about the last one though, but that's also since i'm not Wallonian.

In Flanders, 9th best party i think will be the Blank party (though i'm not sure how many of the usual voters that vote blank will vote for a party blank as opposed to actually voting blank. I suppose a minority actually will vote for the party since it still requires more effort than just having a blank ballot. Zero chance though they get over electoral threshold.

Last poll:



Record high for PVDA

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1783784060294152488



But Brussels polling is hard (and generally the right wing parties are probably overrated since those voters will be easier to reach in calls since that's mostly white voters in relatively rich suburbs in Brussels).



Wallonia