Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[Lechasseur]

Do you mean the Humanist Democratic Center? cdH?

Yes them (though I did read about them in previous pages).

CdH abandoned its Christian and conservative, in order to become more relevant to immigrant communities by becoming a "humanist" party.

Now most people basically see them as a wishy washy party that doesn't really stand for anything.

Under Joëlle Milquet they were for all intents and purposes a left-wing party which lost them their old conservative vote, and then in the last few years they tried to pivot right again but it didn't get them their old conservative voters back and it just lost them their left-wing voters acquired during the Milquet years.

That explains their electoral collapse during the last election.

Basically in Wallonia and Brussels if you're non left-wing you vote MR (Mouvement Réformateur). And it's basically been that way since the 2000s.

Flanders has far more options in terms of parties for right-wingers.

Correct, particularly this part. MCC's defection from the Christian Social Party back in the 90s in return of the PRL abandoning its crusade (for lack of a better word) on the Catholic hold on education, effectively ensured traditional conservatives have been voting MR for ages now, although you do meet some relics who just blindly vote cdH.

Why not a religious centrist, moderate, left coalition or support a socially conservative/justice vision or there's no audience for that? If you're an MR voter, do you need be both types of conservative/right leaning or may it be somewhat possible to be little/moderate/somewhat left on economic and fiscal issues?

Well I think all parties in Belgium would be left-wing on economic issues so I think as an American no party there would bother you in terms of being to economically right-wing or whatever.

Afterwards, no. I don't think there's any audience left for that.

Previously that party was the left-wing of PSC but there's no Christian party anymore.

If religion is your main factor in determining who you'd vote for you'd probably support the CdH anyway but they aren't an explicitly Christian party anymore.

MR are generally the more conservative party at this point but they're generally secular.

At this point though CdH are basically a non-factor though, they're only like the 5th largest party in Wallonia at this point and probably not any better off in Brussels.

[Lechasseur]

Do you mean the Humanist Democratic Center? cdH?

Yes them (though I did read about them in previous pages).

CdH abandoned its Christian and conservative, in order to become more relevant to immigrant communities by becoming a "humanist" party.

Now most people basically see them as a wishy washy party that doesn't really stand for anything.

Under Joëlle Milquet they were for all intents and purposes a left-wing party which lost them their old conservative vote, and then in the last few years they tried to pivot right again but it didn't get them their old conservative voters back and it just lost them their left-wing voters acquired during the Milquet years.

That explains their electoral collapse during the last election.

Basically in Wallonia and Brussels if you're non left-wing you vote MR (Mouvement Réformateur). And it's basically been that way since the 2000s.

Flanders has far more options in terms of parties for right-wingers.

Correct, particularly this part. MCC's defection from the Christian Social Party back in the 90s in return of the PRL abandoning its crusade (for lack of a better word) on the Catholic hold on education, effectively ensured traditional conservatives have been voting MR for ages now, although you do meet some relics who just blindly vote cdH.

Why not a religious centrist, moderate, left coalition or support a socially conservative/justice vision or there's no audience for that? If you're an MR voter, do you need be both types of conservative/right leaning or may it be somewhat possible to be little/moderate/somewhat left on economic and fiscal issues?

Yes, its easy to identify a couple of MR figures with the profile I think you are trying to draw (Willy Borsus for one). But Americans here on general just need to understand that issues such as religion's place in society, abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage etc. are just about non-issues for large swathes of European electorates, including self-declared Christians. Belgium is not different. Its a heavily culturally catholic country, with a very strong catholic pillar and catholic genealogy that can explain a lot of good and bad characteristics about Belgium. But that's about it. 

The economic cleavage dominates in francophone Belgium especially. That's not to say MR have a radically different economic program to PS (they are after all in coalition together at the Walloon region). But your socio-economic status usually determines how you vote. cdH were by definition in Wallonia a party of rural economic renewal, dominating in Luxemburg province, and of associative governance models with a trade unions that targeted certain sections of the working class.

Prévot is trying to re-invent them into something a bit different now that they are in opposition, but encounters resistance.

Exactly. I agree with everything you just said.

Which direction is Prévot trying to push CdH in? How is he trying to reinvent them?

[Lechasseur]

I agree apart from one thing - cdH are still a "factor" - its thanks to them we have a weird coalition in Wallonia of MR, ECOLO and PS. Despite consistently declining over the last 20 if not 30 years they have always been a kingmaker as such, even when they decide to opt out. The last 4 changes of Walloon government have effectively formed on the basis of cdH changing course. Which is frightening.

He is trying to re-invent them into the Maxime Prévot party. Taking a leaf out of a certain politician down south
The difference is, Prévot is nowhere near as shrewd, competent, communicative or intelligent as Macron. And he didn't found the party so the old guard are left and they are usually mayors in the kind of places cdH relies on.

True, CdH are still kingmakers.

I more meant in an electoral sense, as not many people vote for them anymore.

[Lechasseur]

I agree apart from one thing - cdH are still a "factor" - its thanks to them we have a weird coalition in Wallonia of MR, ECOLO and PS. Despite consistently declining over the last 20 if not 30 years they have always been a kingmaker as such, even when they decide to opt out. The last 4 changes of Walloon government have effectively formed on the basis of cdH changing course. Which is frightening.

He is trying to re-invent them into the Maxime Prévot party. Taking a leaf out of a certain politician down south
The difference is, Prévot is nowhere near as shrewd, competent, communicative or intelligent as Macron. And he didn't found the party so the old guard are left and they are usually mayors in the kind of places cdH relies on.

And then for the second paragraph, I could guess that much lol.

But is their any ideological direction he's trying to push the party in or anything?

[Lechasseur]

Results of first round presidency of MR :

Georges-Louis Bouchez : 6044
Ducarme : 3405
Goffin ; 1521
Defraigne : 1899
Barzin : 685

It will be Ducarme vs GLB. Pretty clear that the MR base is swinging rightwards.

So what's the difference between them politically? And who would be a better leader for the party?

[Lechasseur]

Results of first round presidency of MR :

Georges-Louis Bouchez : 6044
Ducarme : 3405
Goffin ; 1521
Defraigne : 1899
Barzin : 685

It will be Ducarme vs GLB. Pretty clear that the MR base is swinging rightwards.

So what's the difference between them politically? And who would be a better leader for the party?

There is more a difference in style than in their ideas as both are on the right of the party. GLB is more socially liberal in the American sense I guess, he's not against good ideas if they come from the left of the party but he still hangs out with Francken, is hard on immigration,etc. He's got the support of Reynders, Michel and the rest of the barons., but he's definitely a maverick more than a manager who loves debating and provoking. But he's still learning I guess.

Ducarme is the kind of guy that attracts Destexhe voters. An older demographic . He's basically there to be a stone in the shoe of GLB as they both hate each other (refused to debate each other in the aftermath). The kind politician that thinks speaking with a raised voice on a debate platform is enough.

Ducarme definitely isn't a good fit for leader. GLB is clearly talented but he can also be a divisive figure and he ran their worst campaign for quite awhile in May.  Either way MR need to be careful they don't lose their loyal centrist voters to cdH/Défi . A lot of people who vote MR don't have time for big mouths, they just want someone to protect their tax rates.

Who do you think will win? GLB?

[Lechasseur]

Geens has resigned as informateur. He was hoping to bring the PS and N-VA together but Magnette made it clear this morning it wasn't going to happen and the N-VA continue their own Calimero act of "We're willing to negotiate, but only on our terms".

King must give it to an NVA official if only for symbolic reasons now. A real sense that new elections are the only thing that will happen.

Magnette also talked about a potential referendum for the first time, which is a Rubicon for Francophone politicians, that personally I am glad they have finally crossed.

A referendum on what?

[Lechasseur]

Open VLD has a new chairman Egbert Lachaert who represents the right-wing of Open VLD. VLD will likely get a name change.

What do you think changes with the party's new leader? And what do you think the party's name will change to?