Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[DavidB.]

S&V leader Dries Van Langenhove will be the top VB candidate in the province of Vlaams-Brabant in the upcoming federal election, but will supposedly sit as an independent in parliament if elected.

[DavidB.]

That interview was indeed kind of unreal, especially for someone from the Netherlands who views the Flemish as generally more polite and less direct than us! It was clear the tv lady wanted to do a hitjob on DVL. She was way too hostile and definitely not neutral, erroneously stating that he is broke (which he himself never claimed) and suggesting this would be why he is a candidate for parliament. Of course he wouldn't respond kindly to it. I'm sure this will only help him, just like Tim Verheyden's attempt to take down DVL in Pano didn't work.

[DavidB.]

I think it's the consequence of the "cordon sanitaire" type of thinking that is prevalent in Flanders, according to which the shunning of supposedly radical right-wing political actors isn't just something that can be left to politicians but is also a task of the media, who are obviously naturally inclined to side with centrist and center-left parties in the first place; on the other hand, in the Netherlands we have more of a tradition in which such viewpoints are approached in a less "activist" way (which critics think normalizes these viewpoints). While I think the Dutch public broadcaster has a left-wing bias too, they would never approach someone like Thierry Baudet similarly to what happened yesterday.

And yeah, DVL almost definitely lied about the Discord server, no need to beat around the bush in that regard. But the part of the public that is sympathetic to DVL's political message and would simultaneously oppose Mosley references and what went on in the Discord server (like me...) is more inclined to support him when the media instrumentalize these things as an attack on him - especially if done as triumphantly as Cools did. Just question someone fairly yet critically, without attacking them, and let the people at home make up their minds, I'd say.

[DavidB.]

Will donate to DVL's campaign soon. I want to be able to merge this thread with the Dutch one in my lifetime after all.

[DavidB.]

For the federal election:

VB 83%
PP 70%
CD&V 68%
N-VA 67%
cdH 61%
MR 60%
sp.a 51%
PS 50%
Défi 49%
PTB 47%
PVDA 46%
Ecolo 45%
Open VLD 44%
Groen 41%

Shame Destexhe's thingy is not part of this test.

[DavidB.]

Thanks for the updates, coloniac and Lakigigar.

New polling. Media spinned it into losses for the Greens or a disappointing poll for them (while still winning seats), while Vlaams Belang had a very good poll and seem to have momentum build on maybe the case of Julie Van Espen and a good (online) campaign.

To what extent would you say the VB surge is related to DVL's popularity?

[DavidB.]

What happened to the DENK copy? Wasn't it named ISLAM or so?

Is there any chance VB get two seats in Flemish Brabant?

Will there be a livestream and exit polls? I assume there is no embargo on federal election results, only on EU parliament results?

[DavidB.]

But in Tongeren N-VA loses a lot to Open VLD instead of VB. Why would people switch from N-VA to Open VLD? Do they think the N-VA has become too right-wing?

Livestream in Dutch here.

[DavidB.]

What a bizarre VRT report. Some VRT lady in a car with an undecided voter judging politicians (mostly female ones) based on their apperance on promotion flyers.

[DavidB.]

Seems as if the N-VA is holding up better in the Antwerp metro than in places like Western Flanders, where VB's gains are through the roof.

[DavidB.]

How come VB are doing so well this time?

N-VA were in the federal government and failed to deliver on their promises. VB portrayed them as weak on immigration, and the climate issue hurt them too, with N-VA mobility minister Ben Weyts toying with the idea of kilometer pricing for cars. In addition, the N-VA did zilch to pursue further autonomy for Flanders. Meanwhile, the N-VA did move the discourse to the right and normalized ideas and rhetoric that used to be off-limits for non-VB parties.

As a result, a lot of voters moved to VB but N-VA probably did attract voters from more centrist parties (looking at you, Flemish Brabant), resulting in a clear rightward shift as VB won a lot more than N-VA lost.

[DavidB.]

I mean that's the thing. These don't just seem to be vote trasnfers from NVA, they're getting votes from other parties too. How do people jump from say Open VLD to VB?

They're getting votes from other parties too, but I think the N-VA may be gaining votes from parties like Open VLD and CD&V, thereby mitigating the losses to VB to a certain extent.

I think the step from Open VLD and especially CD&V to VB isn't too unrealistic to take for some, though. Especially thinking of small entrepreneurs and the like here, not the elites of course. Heard anecdotal evidence of a friend whose family moved from Open VLD to VB: "this time for Flanders." In that respect, Van Grieken's strategy has probably worked in "detoxifying" VB: he clearly comes across as more moderate than Dewinter. But clearly most of the VB vote came directly from the N-VA.

[DavidB.]

Flemish Parliament 2019 :

N-VA 35 (-8)
VB 23 (+17)
CD&V 19 (-8)
Open Vld 16 (-3)
Groen 14 (+4)
sp.a 13 (-5)
PVDA+ 4 (+4)
UF 0 (-1)

Likely Flemish majority : N-VA-VLD-CDV-sp.a

Why with the sp.a? N-VA, Open VLD and CD&V have a majority already. Adding the sp.a would be even more difficult for the N-VA.

[DavidB.]

7sur7 have a very simple interactive electoral map :

https://www.7sur7.be/home/elections-consultez-la-carte-des-resultats-ici~a94d232b/

Why does Open VLD do so well in the southwest of Eastern Flanders? I expected them to do better in Flemish Brabant and worse there.

[DavidB.]

CD&V leader Pieter De Crem said they don't intend to enter a federal government without the N-VA, and Open VLD leader Gwendolyn Rutten faces a leadership challenge: Vincent Van Quickenborne wants to pull the party to the right and is also opposed to Purple-Green unless Groen-Ecolo are willing to "burn their entire manifesto".

So as expected, forming a government with MR-PS-Ecolo on the Walloon side and Groen, Open VLD, CD&V and perhaps sp.a (who should also really do a tour in opposition...) on the Flemish side will mostly be very difficult because the Flemish center-right parties Open VLD and CD&V don't want to lose even more to N-VA and VB.

[DavidB.]

Loved the booing of Anuna but obviously harassing her is utterly unacceptable. In response, the festival was accused of taking people's Flemish national flags away from them. Not a good response either...

[DavidB.]

Seriously, it's just because of the black claws that they call it a collaboration flag? That's just ridiculous. I thought it would be a black flag with a yellow lion on it or so.

Anyway, this is what happens when festival organizers live in a cosmopolitan bubble and think inviting someone like Anuna is completely uncontroversial because "the youth are all Greens", whereas a festival like Pukkelpop is a microcosm of Belgium in terms of political adherance and most people just don't want politics to be shoved into their faces when enjoying a concert.

Perfectly timed "fophefje" for the N-VA, considering that they received a ton of criticism for sidelining VB and forming a coalition with Open VLD and CD&V.

[DavidB.]

Pukkelpop is a private festival. Their house, their rules.

Where do I argue they shouldn't be allowed to ban people from waving these flags? That's right - nowhere. It's their right. However, that doesn't make it morally justified to ban them. Especially not if they didn't announce this policy beforehand (and I think this is where legal issues would enter the picture too, since I doubt banning Flemish flags is part of the "small letters...").

Sure there's not much difference but VB know exactly what they are doing trying to normalise their own flag and equate it with the Flemish Movements one.

Peter De Roovere and Steven Vandeput from N-VA have been the most loud about this, not VB...

As for the legal/moral question, here's your state press:

"Het is juist dat die zwarte Vlaamse Leeuw gebruikt geweest is door collaboratiebewegingen, net zoals de Belgische vlag gebruikt geweest is door collaboratiebewegingen", vertelt Vuye aan onze redactie. "De Belgische vlag tooide de uniformen van het Waals Legioen van Léon Degrelle. Dus ook dat is dan een collaboratievlag als je het uitsluitend herleidt tot de periode 1940-1944. Maar die vlaggen zijn natuurlijk veel ouder."

Vuye, Vlaams-nationalist en professor Staatsrecht, verwijst naar rechtspraak van het Europees Hof voor de Rechten van de Mens. "Men noemt dat polysemische symbolen, symbolen die meerdere betekenissen hebben. De vlag met de zwarte Vlaamse Leeuw heeft een andere betekenis wanneer ze zou opgehangen worden bij een herdenking van een of andere collaborateur dan wanneer ze gebruikt wordt binnen de Vlaamse Beweging. Zo'n polysemisch symbool gaan verbieden door het te herleiden tot een héél beperkte periode van de geschiedenis is een vrij flagrante inbreuk op de vrijheid van meningsuiting."

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2019/08/17/de-zwarte-vlaamse-leeuw/

[DavidB.]

Calm down, lol. This namecalling and these personal attacks are completely unnecessary. All I'm saying is that it's a bad decision, both because these flags are Flemish flags and because people didn't know these flags weren't allowed in advance. Color me highly skeptical that young people having fun at a festival flying (a version of) their national flag are secretly "celebrating SS collaborators openly" (Bruno De Wever, hardly a right-winger, agrees).

[DavidB.]

This is Belgium we're talking about (or Flanders, if you prefer), not Serbia. No one will mind.

[DavidB.]

Is there election result data on a level lower than municipalities (ideally precincts) for the last Belgian local/federal elections?

When do our Belgian posters expect the Covid passport to be abolished? Apparently there will be changes on March 1st that will cause people who weren't vaccinated in the last 5 months (i.e. mostly young people who didn't receive a "booster") to lose their access to restaurants etc. Will this actually happen or will it be abolished beforehand?

[DavidB.]

Covid passport gone from Monday onwards. Though it's "shelved" and not indefinitely abolished.

[DavidB.]

What is the reason VB seem to be losing a bit of support to the N-VA again? Russia? People forgetting how the N-VA governed federally? Immigration/multicultural issues and Flemish nationalist issues not being high on the agenda right now? Or is it just a regular polling fluke?

And who, exactly, does Conner Rousseau appeal to, and why?

We are incidentally, likely to see MR change their name soon.

These name changes are a real plague.

[DavidB.]

I completely get the N-VA/PS thing. But what are the benefits behind the rapprochement of N-VA and Vooruit for both parties?

I doubt it will work. Wallonia will collapse.

How so? Flemish money could make it run until infinity. And in the end the Flemish socialists, liberals and Christian Democrats seem too risk-averse/don't-rock-the-boat to ever pull the plug.

[DavidB.]

New  state reform for Flanders, they'll add 15 regions.

I live in South-West Flanders or Zuid-West Vlaanderen. And in the past only lived here or in Vlaamse Ardennen / Flemish Ardennes.

And what exactly will these regions add? Seems insane when you already have the federal level, the Flemish level, the provinces, and the municipalities.