Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

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Seat distribution according to the latest poll

Greens + Socdems + Far left would end up at 72. More than the 63 from 2019 and 50 from 2014.

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https://twitter.com/arnoc16/status/1669401274326892546

Connor Rousseau outed himself as bisexual, but there are rumours or indications that he has done this to defend himself on accusations of sexually transgressive behavior to minors (males).

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Connor Rousseau outed himself as bisexual, but there are rumours or indications that he has done this to defend himself on accusations of sexually transgressive behavior to minors (males).

Pulling a Kevin Spacey?

It seems like that's the case.

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In other news

chairman of far right party had a physical fight with cops in Brussels yesterday, here is a video of that. They accused the police of using violence against them.

https://twitter.com/milantwerp/status/1668654245095133186

This is the whole video for context

https://twitter.com/tomvangrieken/status/1668911244374319104

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Pascal Smet has to resign because he engages in diplomacy.

Meanwhille Vooruit does everything to protect their chairman after numerous sexual allegations and call everyone who calls them out for it homophobic.

Hmm... than why do we have a transsexual minister nobody complains about if we're all homophobic.

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https://twitter.com/De7deDag/status/1670425267544653824

https://twitter.com/psym10/status/1670349533773983744

Chairman of Young Open VLD or Young Liberals also did set a step aside after assumingly allegations of sexual assault or sexually transgressive behavior.

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Wtf is happening lol.

Rousseau has had a complaint against him made by a 24 year old over sexual offenses, his career appears to be soon finished.

Labhib the Foreign Secretary will also likely resign soon over the Iran visas after she was caught changing her story several times but the MR President Bouchez is pulling out all the stops and trying to do a double or nothing bet on her staying as he really wanted her to front the Brussels campaign after sacrificing Alexia Bertrand to get her. It appears the Vivaldi could even break apart over this issue as De Croo initially backed her and looks very weak now. Given that Ecolo minister Schlitz was forced to resign over much less and with MR being part of the wolf pack, they look snookered on this issue. This could also preticipate Bouchez's end as MR President : not only is he intensely disliked by all coalition partners including VLD for his attacks, leading to MR losing out on issues such as these, but internally the Michel clan realise he is a busted flush and a liability when what the Michels care about is just securing cushy jobs for the boys and their friends, not pursuing a populist-Right agenda.

Where do people like Rousseau go after they've been driven from electoral politics?

Usually, a European political career as it has no direct democracy, via an appointment.

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Rousseau has had a complaint against him made by a 24 year old over sexual offenses, his career appears to be soon finished.

Labhib the Foreign Secretary will also likely resign soon over the Iran visas after she was caught changing her story several times but the MR President Bouchez is pulling out all the stops and trying to do a double or nothing bet on her staying as he really wanted her to front the Brussels campaign after sacrificing Alexia Bertrand to get her. It appears the Vivaldi could even break apart over this issue as De Croo initially backed her and looks very weak now. Given that Ecolo minister Schlitz was forced to resign over much less and with MR being part of the wolf pack, they look snookered on this issue. This could also preticipate Bouchez's end as MR President : not only is he intensely disliked by all coalition partners including VLD for his attacks, leading to MR losing out on issues such as these, but internally the Michel clan realise he is a busted flush and a liability when what the Michels care about is just securing cushy jobs for the boys and their friends, not pursuing a populist-Right agenda.

I've heard that the socialists and greens are teaming up to avenge GLB after he criticized them despite being all in the government for 2 years in a row. Our journalist said: "it's payback time".

Rousseau meanwhile is talking about a smear campaign against him and all socialists are defending him, but yea i agree that the ground is getting hot for him as well.

Heads will roll.

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PM gave approval for Iranian delegation

Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib in the firing line

It's kind of ridicilous Pascal Smet had to resign for this, while the PM and secretary of foreign affairs just get an infinite amount of chances.

Our secretary of foreign affairs also had a controversy earlier because last summer she went on vacation to Crimea, indirectly acknowledging it as part of Russia

Russians funded Belgian foreign minister’s Crimea trip

https://twitter.com/HLN_BE/status/1671813925149523968

For Rousseau, i haven't found an english article yet, but you can translate this tweet. It says: "Young man of 24 submits a complaint to the Antwerp public prosecutor's office against Conner Rousseau: "My client is a victim of sexual offenses"

His coming out vid a week ago was a Spacey-esque attempt to be ahead of what was coming. TV News Presentator Bart De Pauw also did a similar thing (addressing his public before allegations were made, and also blaming it on autism spectrum disorder).

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https://twitter.com/SafaiDarya/status/1671580166391308304

https://twitter.com/SafaiDarya/status/1671462052479524866

This is the response of Iran, or how a spokesman told about the events in Brussels in Iran. It has english subtitles

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Labhib the Foreign Secretary will also likely resign soon over the Iran visas after she was caught changing her story several times but the MR President Bouchez is pulling out all the stops and trying to do a double or nothing bet on her staying as he really wanted her to front the Brussels campaign after sacrificing Alexia Bertrand to get her. It appears the Vivaldi could even break apart over this issue as De Croo initially backed her and looks very weak now.

What i have never understood or heard about it is...

why did they invite the mayor of Tehran to Brussels?

That is so unclear and confusing to me?

Was it a part of the prison exchange deal?

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Ngl it would be funny if the government fell because of a foreign policy issue for the second time in a row, in Belgium of  all places.

I can't think of the last time a government didn't fall at some point lol.

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https://twitter.com/PeterDeRoover1/status/1671595504625410052

Also it's offensive she can't even speak dutch.

For a secretary of foreign affairs, absolutely ridicilous.

The questions are asked in dutch, and she replies in french (except for the few times she says a dutch word in between).

"et donc a partir de uitnodiging is zijnde dus de mensen heeft ils ont les droits ils peuvent..."

i mean what is this for sentence

One of the strengths of our chairman is that he is perfectly bilingual. Something a lot of politicians aren't in Belgium. That's why he is able to project some appeal into Flanders because people appreciate that. Usually people don't have to campaign in the other language part of the country, we basically live separated but in a union.

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Belgium’s FM on the brink over Iran visas fallout

Politico has an article on it

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Rousseau has had a complaint against him made by a 24 year old over sexual offenses, his career appears to be soon finished.

Labhib the Foreign Secretary will also likely resign soon over the Iran visas after she was caught changing her story several times but the MR President Bouchez is pulling out all the stops and trying to do a double or nothing bet on her staying as he really wanted her to front the Brussels campaign after sacrificing Alexia Bertrand to get her. It appears the Vivaldi could even break apart over this issue as De Croo initially backed her and looks very weak now. Given that Ecolo minister Schlitz was forced to resign over much less and with MR being part of the wolf pack, they look snookered on this issue. This could also preticipate Bouchez's end as MR President : not only is he intensely disliked by all coalition partners including VLD for his attacks, leading to MR losing out on issues such as these, but internally the Michel clan realise he is a busted flush and a liability when what the Michels care about is just securing cushy jobs for the boys and their friends, not pursuing a populist-Right agenda.

Where do people like Rousseau go after they've been driven from electoral politics?

He is part of the Socialist family so he will end up at  their mutelle (his mother is an ex-Vooruit member who runs it), a tade union job, a think tank position, you name it. He might have presented himself as a political outsider but he is extremely well connected.

A trade union job seems unlikely after he went hard after the trade union and drove them into PVDA-PTB's hands.

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a political cartoon i found

https://twitter.com/LesNews24/status/1671869660009050117

Meanwhile GLB re-iterates that she will not step down.

(despite him being vocal on other secretaries to resign of other parties, for far less).

He also said that if she resigns MR would drop out of the government, causing the coalition to no longer have a majority.

The Iranian regime really have scored a win here.

Meanwhile they took photographs of the people who protested the Mayor of Tehran visit, apparently to threaten relatives still living in Iran and intimidate Iranian refugees in Belgium that way.



basically these have all been photographed and identified by the diplomats accompanying the mayor of Tehran which turned out to be spies, vital information for instance to know also who might be supporting the protests in Iran.

https://twitter.com/i24NEWS_EN/status/1671919006708645890

a vid in english

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https://twitter.com/GP_Tonnelier/status/1671922166646947842

GLB: "Hadja Lahbib has all our trust and that of the MR (political party of GLB). She didn't make an error. From our part, we want to return to the real political issues and we demand an end to these petty political games."

https://twitter.com/politiclub/status/1671930559717687298

People have introduced a motion of distrust although no one really wants to vote on that motion but its for next week. Monday is her last chance. "She has to go or the government collapses" is the consensus.

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Lectr is also a good cartoonist. Sad few people can read dutch. Because lol

Left

"We run away from a inhumane regime".
Response: "there is a waiting list, the park is there"

Right

"We are from an inhumane regime"

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Yea i've just read about that as well

Crisisi in federal government is complete after physical conflict between two secretaries

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https://www.hln.be/binnenland/kijk-bouchez-krijgt-duw-bij-verkeersruzie-in-knokke-hij-viel-mij-aan-ik-bleef-kalm~a266c94e/?fbclid=IwAR3TUciPYp6Fx3WzjDRImNxXvdzpyfSVhuCWxx39sIOBih0wbFG-qaghvME

Another controversy this time, vids have shown up where MR chairman was involved in a traffic fight. His woman shouted to the Flemish people as "sale flamands" which means "dirty flemish".

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If the government collapses, will a "rump government" with a minority in parliament stay on until the 2024 election in the way it happened last time, or is there a constitutional possibility for early federal elections?

Both are options, though most will favour the rump government scenario possibly with les engagés replacing MR.

In the past weve had rump governments quite often, during several political crisies, including one just before the covid crisis started (which made clear that we needed a real government at the time).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilm%C3%A8s_I_Government

The Wilmès Government was governing as a caretaker government, until a new cabinet was formed based on the results of the federal elections of 26 May 2019, for which negotiations were still ongoing. Hence the government was a continuation of the centre minority coalition cabinet of Christian Democratic and Flemish (CD&V), the Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats (Open Vld) and the Reformist Movement (MR) which together constituted the Michel II Government. On 16 March, the Wilmès Government was given support by several opposition parties to handle the coronavirus outbreak in Belgium, for which the cabinet is going to be supported by a majority in parliament by granting it special powers under the form of the Wilmès II Government

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%932008_Belgian_government_formation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2%80%932011_Belgian_government_formation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_Belgian_government_formation



This being the cycle of last time.

It took 652 days after the previous one collapsed in December 2018 to form a new government, while we were already the world record holder with 589 days in 2010-2011 before.

Without covid it could've taken longer.

652 days is a lot its basically from Biden swearing in and taking office till the midterms.

There is not really a tradition of snap elections given during these 652 days no snap elections were held. The issue mostly being that centrist parties are afraid of being punished during a snap election and populist parties taking the win, on the left and right.

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Tom Ongena becomes new interim-chairman of Open VLD. There's lots of criticism because the chairman wasn't elected, but appointed.

https://www.demorgen.be/meningen/open-vld-lijkt-niet-enkel-bang-te-zijn-voor-de-kiezer-maar-ook-voor-de-eigen-leden~b6330005/

This is an opinion of someone who says that Open VLD isn't just scared of elections but even for internal elections and that an old generation that is active in politics for decades needs to be replaced by newer faces.

A petition has been started by some members of VLD, including young VLD to allow elections to take place for chair.

People have stated that at this rate the party might even lose members and support within their own ranks, heading to a historic and embarrassing loss for the liberals.

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Tom Ongena becomes new interim-chairman of Open VLD. There's lots of criticism because the chairman wasn't elected, but appointed.

https://www.demorgen.be/meningen/open-vld-lijkt-niet-enkel-bang-te-zijn-voor-de-kiezer-maar-ook-voor-de-eigen-leden~b6330005/

This is an opinion of someone who says that Open VLD isn't just scared of elections but even for internal elections and that an old generation that is active in politics for decades needs to be replaced by newer faces.

A petition has been started by some members of VLD, including young VLD to allow elections to take place for chair.

People have stated that at this rate the party might even lose members and support within their own ranks, heading to a historic and embarrassing loss for the liberals.

There are grassroots members like Else Ampe who are outright calling out the culture of nepotism and "dinosaurs/barons" in the Flemish liberal pillar, which in the context of Belgian politics is quite a Rubicon to cross (MR for example also operates like a family business where well to do families run the show in the background).

One wonders why they get 20% of the vote in french speaking Belgium if it's a party of the very few.

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Yeah i don't disagree with you there. I'm not exactly a liberal (esp. from our national point of view). I strongly detest them and if the proposal of anti-voting goes through, i would give it to VLD (VB and N-VA are going to get many anyways from other people).

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https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2023/07/07/jean-marie-dedecker-overweegt-om-de-ldd-nieuw-leven-in-te-blazen/

List Dedecker (a libertarian party) might choose to to be on the lists next election again. It's something that is into consideration and would be a threat to both the flemish liberals and flemish national conservatives (VLD and N-VA) if they decide to do so as they're quite popular, esp. in West Flanders.