Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[Zinneke]

By the way: in Poland often political adversaries say that Tusk "fled" to Brussels with him accepting post in the EU structures. Do Belgian politicians use such narratives against Van Rompuy or Michel? How Belgian public opinion views such "promotions"?

People here treat Europe as just another part of government most of the time so its not seen as a betrayal in the slightest. It can be seen as careerist though. Van Rompuy left during a crisis (Leterme to OCDE too). Michel was labelled as a Macron puppet by the Walloon Left. But it was not seen as a betrayal of patriotic values in the slightest.


In terms of actual poll ratings it has no direct effect.

In case of Kris Peeters or Annemie Turtelboom, it was the case, so i would say yes, but it's more something about individuals. Michel was however actually quite popular.

He was popular in Flanders, yes.

It's just general anti-political sentiment that motivates cases like Peeters, Turtelboom, etc. Because we have so many political mandates in this country people like them who flop in one electoral arena are usually parachuted into another level of government. But the fact that they ended up in Europe is not the issue in itself. For example, Dominique Fourny received a lot of criticism for going from losing her mayorality in Ixelles to being 4th of the MR list at the Region, which is another classic example of falling upwards in this Kafkaesque state.

[Zinneke]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/11/slow-streets-can-coronavirus-cure-brussels-of-addiction-driving?CMP=share_btn_tw

Speaking of local Brussels politics, the new cycle lanes are making massive waves as the entire political Right start crapping themselves at the thought of allowing cyclists to not have to share the pavement with pedestrians. Oh the horror.

I particularly like this from Francken :

Francken seized on the plans as a means to further his goal of breaking up the multilingual kingdom, tweeting that Greens and the left were “determined to give Brussels back to the people of Brussels, [which is] their right. We should let that happen with teleworking and further decentralisation. Bye bye Belgium.”

...his party's Brussels wing are literally in favour of the cycle lanes...

[Zinneke]

One thing I don’t understand is why the German community is still part of Belgium - surely it would make much more sense for them to rejoin Germany, at this point. Or is there something I’m missing?

They would just become another Landkreis of North-Rhine-Westphalia. No fun in that when you have your own MEP and community government that can veto EU ratification campaigns all on its own (but never does obviously)

[Zinneke]

Open VLD has a new chairman Egbert Lachaert who represents the right-wing of Open VLD. VLD will likely get a name change.

What do you think changes with the party's new leader? And what do you think the party's name will change to?

Not much. But it's another sharp turn to the right. VB talked about the defeat of the left-liberal establishment. Greens might become the new liberal.

There is already talk of a left-liberal party being formed with the likes of Gatz, Somers and the other old Spirit regionalists that went to sp.a and groen. Open VLD's Brussels wing actively disobeyed its party HQ so there's that.

But given Somers did also pretty well despite backing the wrong horse I think the social liberals are not dead in the party yet. I mean without them VLD would not have Gent and Mechelen as "strongholds".

[Zinneke]

edit : Laki beat me to it



before/after Corona. Obviously too late for the VLD switch.

VB are now the largest party in Flanders.

If Open VLD goes right, that seems counterproductive as doesn't Flemish region already vote heavily right so why would it need another right wing party?

Because they have already tried demonising the Right in Flanders and it backfired. Its also an entire spectrum falling into the VB trap has set ; that is, believing that they must absolutely cover some of VB's fundamental program points like anti-immigration and more devolved powers to Flanders to win back votes, but forgetting that VB runs a left-wing populist economic program and will always, always beat them on anti-immigration and devolved powers (given they advocate independence). By normalizing VB's discourse the Flemish Right has unleashed a beast they cannot control. The final trap they will fall into is breaking the cordon sanitaire, when it is their greatest asset against VB.

Also how come Flanders votes so heavily to right and Wallonia to left?  Any reason for that sharp divide.  Comparing to North America its almost like Flanders is akin to Alberta in Canada and Wallonia akin to Quebec while for US, Flanders would be like Wyoming and Wallonia like Vermont in terms of which way the tilt and one sided dominance.

First, don't compare Belgium to North America, it won't help. Despite Flemish people voting the way they do, Flanders is still economically quite left-wing compared to, say, the Netherlands, let alone North America. It is also more conservative than the Netherlands in the Burkean sense. Forget any comparisons with anyone other than the Netherlands or Luxembourg that have similar electoral systems, size and party configurations with one or two cleavages that differ.

I have already answered why the left-right gap exists before but to sum up my hypotheses :

Flanders is extremely densely populated to the extent that cities do not dominate and that the median voter is in a 4 sided villa with service sector job, with a company car, dependent on it for getting around, and never actually experienced Brussels outside the main stations which are hellholes, and get told nasty stories about immigrants there. They are thus socially conservative, and do not like the Boogeymen Left potentially taking away their ability to have a 4 sided villa and a company car. Its also inevitably going to be more pro-market like any port-based city state (which in global terms is what Flanders is) than Wallonia.

Wallonia is mostly concentrated around its cities, that demographically exploded (with foreigners) during the industrial revolution, where a rust belt (The "Sillon Industriel Wallon") was formed. In the 70s and 80s facing competition from abroad these places start to close, a classic story in most rust belts in Europe (Northern France, Erzgerbirge, South Wales, etc.) but by then the PS had effectively achieved peak cultural hegemony through its many wings , NGOs and union in the Walloon Industrial Belt, and effectively blamed it on globalisation and lack of investment from the central government. People in Wallonia's most populous areas are either from an immigrant background or are used to them by now, and Wallonia is demographically not a boomer time bomb to the extent Flanders is in. The only cleavage that matters in Wallonia is usually the socio-economic one, unlike Flanders where it is multiple. And that suits socialist/social democratic parties.

Then you have progressive Brussels (that used to trend MR) and its particularities but to sum that up its just Big City mentality (with the most nationalities for a city in the world after Dubai) + wanting their city to be more livable so less cars, more associative action etc.

[Zinneke]

I would add to what Laki said about VLD : there is definitely a very online, very IT/service sector demographic in Flanders, usually in places like Gent and Mechelen where social liberal VLD does well, that wants a pro-market social liberal, green, concerned about urban planning, but also anti-immigration, which is what someone from Somers' wing would potentially tap into. That chance has gone now. Those people make their choice depending on the level of government and the priority. 

[Zinneke]

projection of seats as per Pascal Delwit

[Zinneke]

I thought Rousseau was on the left of the sp.a?

(Then again, this is the party that once fell head-over-heels for Bruno Tobback...)

No not really, or at least that is the feeling i get. Hans (i don't know his surname anymore) was on the left, and would've been a better chairman. All my preferred chairman candidates lost unfortunately .

Hans Bonte? He wasn't really on the left. He's a so called Red Lion, one of the last of its breed : a flamingant socialist.

Rousseau is hard to characterise really. Worked his way up the ranks of the party so not a usurper type, definitely not on the left of the group, definitely not Tobback either. Close to the Combrez wing I guess.

[Zinneke]

Wait, how on Earth did the fascists from VB get to 24%?

Most likely because people are just fed up. Our politicans played house of cards at the peak of the crisis, and the N-VA's budget cuts program alongside De Wever's inability to tap into public sentiment during this crisis is costing his party dearly. VB's messaging is simple and they will always outflank the N-VA on every issue.

Also, given that VB+N-VA are at 45% or so, any chance Flanders goes full Catalonia and actually tries to secede? I wonder what new Belgian resident Puigdemont thinks about it

The last thing the (sane) nationalists in Flanders want at this stage is a referendum, because then BHV comes back into play, and there's a very serious risk of them losing the referendum given the actual issue of Flemish independence is nothing like the Catalan issue, in that most people don't really care about it. Only 10% of N-VA voters actually vote N-VA specifically for decentralisation, and with VB its just there as another edgy policy but they litterally run lists in Brussels with francophones saying the important priority is getting rid of immigrants.


I imagine Puigdemont is in favour but given he was sort of driven out of Flanders by virtue of only speaking...French with them...he will continue to reside in Waterloo.

[Zinneke]

Wait, how on Earth did the fascists from VB get to 24%?

Most likely because people are just fed up. Our politicans played house of cards at the peak of the crisis, and the N-VA's budget cuts program alongside De Wever's inability to tap into public sentiment during this crisis is costing his party dearly. VB's messaging is simple and they will always outflank the N-VA on every issue.

Also, given that VB+N-VA are at 45% or so, any chance Flanders goes full Catalonia and actually tries to secede? I wonder what new Belgian resident Puigdemont thinks about it

The last thing the (sane) nationalists in Flanders want at this stage is a referendum, because then BHV comes back into play, and there's a very serious risk of them losing the referendum given the actual issue of Flemish independence is nothing like the Catalan issue, in that most people don't really care about it. Only 10% of N-VA voters actually vote N-VA specifically for decentralisation, and with VB its just there as another edgy policy but they litterally run lists in Brussels with francophones saying the important priority is getting rid of immigrants.


I imagine Puigdemont is in favour but given he was sort of driven out of Flanders by virtue of only speaking...French with them...he will continue to reside in Waterloo.

So does that mean that the nationalist strategy would be to shake the belgian state around enough that it kind of just falls apart without popular input?

Yes, the N-VA are very open about it. They want to make the Walloons want to proceed to state break up by having as hard a right-wing policy as possible, and also by defunding and stripping any federal power possible enough for it to just wither away.

[Zinneke]

Wait, how on Earth did the fascists from VB get to 24%?

Most likely because people are just fed up. Our politicans played house of cards at the peak of the crisis, and the N-VA's budget cuts program alongside De Wever's inability to tap into public sentiment during this crisis is costing his party dearly. VB's messaging is simple and they will always outflank the N-VA on every issue.

Also, given that VB+N-VA are at 45% or so, any chance Flanders goes full Catalonia and actually tries to secede? I wonder what new Belgian resident Puigdemont thinks about it

The last thing the (sane) nationalists in Flanders want at this stage is a referendum, because then BHV comes back into play, and there's a very serious risk of them losing the referendum given the actual issue of Flemish independence is nothing like the Catalan issue, in that most people don't really care about it. Only 10% of N-VA voters actually vote N-VA specifically for decentralisation, and with VB its just there as another edgy policy but they litterally run lists in Brussels with francophones saying the important priority is getting rid of immigrants.


I imagine Puigdemont is in favour but given he was sort of driven out of Flanders by virtue of only speaking...French with them...he will continue to reside in Waterloo.

So does that mean that the nationalist strategy would be to shake the belgian state around enough that it kind of just falls apart without popular input?

Yes, the N-VA are very open about it. They want to make the Walloons want to proceed to state break up by having as hard a right-wing policy as possible, and also by defunding and stripping any federal power possible enough for it to just wither away.

Well, Puigdemont would like that Spain becomes in a rump state and the N-VA wants to weaken the Belgian state. So they have a lot in common, even though it's a tragedy that Puigdemont speaks French instead of Dutch language. As you say the situations in Flanders and Catalonia are different, but anyway their national independence projects have a common obstacle as the EU is opposing the split of member states. So Puigdemont and other Catalan nationalists are turning from Europeism to Euroscepticism, while I suppose Flemish nationalists have been always against a federal Europe (right?)

In the old days Volksunie were one of the architects of the idea of a Europe of the Regions. Nowadays the Flemish nationalists range from mildly cynical eurocriticism to outright euroscepticism yes.

[Zinneke]

Weren't Flemish nationalists hoping that the EU would take over the powers of the Belgian state, removing the need for it?

That was the original idea but De Wever said he can't see the EU take further powers anymore, hence why he said a Belgian shell could still exist for the army.

Some flamingants hope the EU may take administrative power of the Brussels region and then solve the Brussels Question, which alongside the debt is the main obstacle to independence. Essentially creating the same constitutional issue as the District of Columbia in the USA though, so the Brussels politicians are totally against it.

Federal MP Dries Van Langenhove caught at lockdown party

This the same guy that called people doing lockdown countdown parties assassins and implied immigrants would not respect the rules.

In what concerns Spain the PNV still remains in that Europe of the Regions project, but Puigdemont is moving away from the pragmatism of the old CiU in every way possible. I guess the old Volksunie had more in common with the former in that respect

Out of curiosity, why Flemish nationalism is so right wing? Is there any kind of left wing Flemish nationalism? Was the Volskunie a 'social-christian' party like our traditional Basque nationalists?

Volksunie in the 60s onwards was very secular, very ahead of its time in terms of social issues, very similar to Défi now, although it had a christian democratic wing that mostly sided with the N-VA when Volksunie split between SPIRIT and NVA. The lower clergy in Flanders has traditionally been flamingant and very right-wing since democracy began as opposed to the higher clergy which is estbalishmenty, Royalist, very tied to CD&V, the pillar and socially christian, although the lower clergy can vary.

Flemish nationalism is right-wing because most of modern flemish nationalism (the N in N-VA) is based on two democracies theory and the idea that Flanders is subsidising Wallonia and the rest of poorer Europe. Its a bourgeois nationalism as such, as opposed to its previous incarnation under Volksunie, which towed more anti-colonial narratives of francophone encroachment on Flemish culture and Belgium being a French colonial project.

But a second reason is just the emergence of a successful Flemish far right in Vlaams Blok/Vlaams Belang that had a strong strategy of re-enforcing Flemish identity as part of a broad set of values including racial nationalism, anti-immigration, anti-political sentiment, francophobia, social conservatism, social movement and order, violence as a means to an end, using all sorts of activities and social movements to promote themselves.

Is there any kind of left wing Flemish nationalism?

Flemish left-wing nationalism from the 60s to the 90s was very focused on cultural emancipation of Flanders rather than economic, but it even had a strong Maoist front as they believed the Flemish class character to be inherently rural poor peasantry, and indeed that is how the PVDA (now PVDA/PTB) was founded - very much a part of the anti-Francophone elite "Leuven Vlaams/Walen Buiten'' movement before Martens drifted them towards unitarism. Once cultural emancipation was achieved with federalism the left-wing nationalists made a somewhat fatal mistake of the split and tying their mast to AGALEV (now Groen) and sp.a and sort of withering away within those organisations institutionally, while still pressuring the parties to stand up for Flemish interests. N-VA on the other hand handled their cartel with CD&V perfectly, largely thanks to De Wever's political acumen, outflanking the former on every issue when they split. Keep in mind N-VA emerged after a lengthy political and constitutional crisis and an economic recession.  

Left-wing nationalists still exist within the structures of some of the non-nationalist parties. The "red Lions" of the sp.a like aforementioned Bonte. Groen also has an offshoot of Spirit. Bert Anciaux, one of the leading figures of Volskunie and founders of Spirit, was associated with sp.a for a while and I think still is. Then you have organisations like Meervoud which are testimonial campaign groups that regularly turn up to pro-PKK rallies and other unrepresented peoples causes, although they are a strange bunch.

[Zinneke]

All probable have 9 other mandates too

[Zinneke]

All probable have 9 other mandates too

That's true. But it's like a really inefficient approach to healthcare. It surely did cost some lives, and is one of the causes why Belgium has a high death rate. Beke also ****ed up in the rest homes.

oh yeah 100 per cent agree.

There should be 3 health ministers max.

[Zinneke]

A few developments following the Open VLD leadership election :

The Vivaldi coalition (traditional tripartite + Greens) has now been ruled out by Magnette. He is acknowledging that its either a coalition between the N-VA and the Socialist family or new elections. Magnette himself is said to have already agreed a deal with the N-VA several times but is handcuffed by his own Party and the FGTB. The PS is terrified of losing the FGTB to the PTB, and the union just over the weekend rid themselves of their SecGen because he did a media appearance with MR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez. That's the level of radicalism they are at right now.
So I imagine we will see new elections.

cdH have unsurprisingly withdrawn their exile from all governmental levels. So they have made themselves available for the federal level, which given how close the numbers can be means they can negotiate hard. What it also means is that if federal elections come about ECOLO and PS may use it as an excuse to dump MR at the regional level. They are increasingly annoyed with Bouchez's consistent polemicist approach to politics, the latest being the criticism of the demo in Brussels that took place for BLM. They otherwise work well with the MR ministers but they would rather have cdH on board going if they see that their alliance with MR is costing them votes to the PTB.

cdH might actually benefit from an increasing stream of moderate MR voters who are rather troubled by Bouchez's style, particularly in the old Walloon Industrial Belt (who were probably from PSC families anyway).

[Zinneke]

New polls.


Flanders

VB 27,7
Nva 20
Spa 12,5
CD&V 11,8
Open VLD 10
Groen 9,4
PvdA 7

Wallonia

PS 23,7
MR 20,5
PTB 18,7
Ecolo 15,1
CdH 8,1
Defi 4,7

Brussels

Ecolo 19
PS 18
MR 17,4
PTB/PvdA 12,6
Defi 10,9
NVA 4,9
CdH 4,7
VB 3,7
Groen 1,8
CD&V 1,5
Open VLD 1,4
Spa 0,7

Absolutely no reason to go back to the voting booth. Ungovernable country.

[Zinneke]

Again satisfied with the polling of PVDA-PTB. I don't understand the enthusiasm for s.pa and it's leader Conner Rousseau. I'm not really a fan of him. I liked Crombez. All current party leaders are downgrades from their previous ones, except for MR. I like Bouchez.

You like Bouchez?! Why?

[Zinneke]

A few developments following the Open VLD leadership election :

The Vivaldi coalition (traditional tripartite + Greens) has now been ruled out by Magnette. He is acknowledging that its either a coalition between the N-VA and the Socialist family or new elections. Magnette himself is said to have already agreed a deal with the N-VA several times but is handcuffed by his own Party and the FGTB. The PS is terrified of losing the FGTB to the PTB, and the union just over the weekend rid themselves of their SecGen because he did a media appearance with MR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez. That's the level of radicalism they are at right now.
So I imagine we will see new elections.

cdH have unsurprisingly withdrawn their exile from all governmental levels. So they have made themselves available for the federal level, which given how close the numbers can be means they can negotiate hard. What it also means is that if federal elections come about ECOLO and PS may use it as an excuse to dump MR at the regional level. They are increasingly annoyed with Bouchez's consistent polemicist approach to politics, the latest being the criticism of the demo in Brussels that took place for BLM. They otherwise work well with the MR ministers but they would rather have cdH on board going if they see that their alliance with MR is costing them votes to the PTB.

cdH might actually benefit from an increasing stream of moderate MR voters who are rather troubled by Bouchez's style, particularly in the old Walloon Industrial Belt (who were probably from PSC families anyway).

What would the results of the PS losing the FGTB to the PTB be? Would it impact any area's politics disproportionately compared to others?

Its more of an indicator, and you would see large bleeding of the PS vote in places where their support is tied to the union and their economic agenda : the Walloon industrial belt in particular.

[Zinneke]

Negotiations between the Right block and the PS are not working, so now CD&V and Open VLD are trying hard to convince the sp.a to join as the lone left-wing party in the coalition. I think this might finally be it, although the stumbling block will be the MR : N-VA already proposed a "Danish social democracy" model of high social protections but hard on borders and immigration to the PS, which the latter agreed to, only to see the MR veto it. I can imagine they will do the same with Rousseau, only to see MR shaft everything.

[Zinneke]

Negotiations between the Right block and the PS are not working, so now CD&V and Open VLD are trying hard to convince the sp.a to join as the lone left-wing party in the coalition. I think this might finally be it, although the stumbling block will be the MR : N-VA already proposed a "Danish social democracy" model of high social protections but hard on borders and immigration to the PS, which the latter agreed to, only to see the MR veto it. I can imagine they will do the same with Rousseau, only to see MR shaft everything.

Ugh opinion of MR shifted very negatively in my view. Why would they want to block everything. I would be in favour of a Danish social democratic model.

My understanding is that part of the Danish style deal was that immigration was transferred to the regions, and state reform put on the table. MR want to block state reform, just like they did in 2014. PS is more flexible than MR in that regard. PS are just less flexible on social security. So for example they refused any deal that "triple locked" the economic reforms of Michel I.

It's explained in Francken's interview with Le Vif/L'express and several other journalists : the real blockage just before Corona wasnt PS-NVA, it was PS-MR-(NVA). These details only emerged after because its ancient history now.

[Zinneke]

https://www.rtbf.be/info/belgique/detail_le-roi-philippe-exprime-au-congo-ses-profonds-regrets-pour-les-blessures-du-passe?id=10532781

The King has expressed his deepest regrets for the crimes committed in Belgium's colonial past in RD Congo. He is the first royal to do so officially via a letter addressed to the Congolese President, Félix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo.

[Zinneke]

CD&V and cdH walked away from federal negotiations after MR's Georges-Louis Bouchez had agreed to block a vote on relaxing abortion laws only to renege on his promise and allow his grouping in the federal parliament a free vote. The Christians seem to have crawled back though, but its soured relations between GLB and yet another leader of a Flemish party after he pissed off De Wever and the sp.a leader Rousseau.

Interesting for two reasons : one, it shows how powerful our parliament is when there is "no government", as laws that are usually vetoed in a governmental agreement by the ever present Catholic pillar can pass...but also laws on the right of the spectrum (with VB support) can be shoved in too. Its always good drama when there's a government of Current Affairs as such. Another case in point : sanctions on Israel over the annexation of the West Bank are being actually debating in parliament rather than behind closed doors, and will rely on a majority of actual representatives to get passed. Should be a close vote.  

Two, it shows that MR have very little incentive to form a government. They are the 7th largest party in number of votes but have several ministries, are ever present at all the levels, and have the Premiership where Wilmes is building notoriety. On the other hand, respect to Bouchez, the guy on the right of the party, to leave a free vote on abortion true to MR's liberal values.

[Zinneke]

How they voted on abortion :



cdH ended up abstaining.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2020/07/12/n-va-supremo-bart-de-wever-makes-abortion-issue-a-no-go-forcing/

The end of the "Arizona talks" or a new beginning?

Honestly, in retrospect, the Arizona coalition was the one that made sense from the start. PS essentially played itself off-side by putting the exclusive on N-VA. From then on it was up to sp.a and cdH to make up the numbers as "left" parties in a right-wing government, and I think there was a compromise to be made : no turning back any socio-economic reforms of Michel I, in exchange for Rousseau's demands. Unfortunately the three pied pipers of the parties with ministers in the Current Affairs Government still have no incentive to form a coalition that will carry the time bomb of an economic recession.

With that said, I'm now personally extremely aware and in the acceptance phase about state breakup and seperate development being on the table. These two political classes need a giant kick up the arse and VB being insurmountable on one side and PTB on the other is a sure way to express that. The politicians of this country will be forced into partition by De Wever and as long as Brussels has its corridor with Wallonia, Flanders is kicked out of the EU and Wallo-Brux take less of the debt (that really should be inflated away anyway with Corona...but fat chance with the German ordo-liberals controlling the ECB), I'm happy seeing a political class so contemptible collectively commit suicide. I'm not a major asset holder, I'm actively trying to emigrate, and push my parents to go back to their home country. This country is fubar and it will be an interesting sociological experiment to see it implode, if it hasn't been already.

[Zinneke]

If the main parties get forced into a choice of coalition between the ptb or vb, which would they go for first?

VB I would say - all the broadly neo-liberal, clientelist parties are more concerned about their assets, their economic rights and specific constituencies, than letting a bunch of bona fide neo-fascists into the institutions. There is a scenario of MR joining a Flemish Right coalition in a similar way they joined the 2014 kamikaze after saying "never with N-VA" (notice how PS have also backtracked on their cordon with NVA). And then in the current parliament the Right outnumber the Left enough to survive for a couple of MR to Défi defections. I don't expect the Cordon Sanitaire to last if N-VA and VB get a majority in Flanders.

 And then PTB, unlike VB, are usually the ones to rule themselves out - their goals are to either take over completely or collapse what they see as bourgeois institutions. VB are open to at least have longer talks.

[Zinneke]

But AFAIK PS considered a coalition or C&S with PTB in Wallonia? As well as N-VA with VB

PS and ECOLO had negotiations with PTB for about an hour or two. Both sides went into it as a show : PS-ECOLO needed to show their left-wing voters that they tried with PTB before going for cdh or MR, and that they thus had no choice to ally with a right-wing party.
PTB released a video denouncing the two parties as not wanting radical enough change. I think that episode confirmed what I already knew, but what some people on the left in Francophone Belgium don't want to accept : PTB are not a party of government - and they don't want to be just right now. There'll likely be a split in the party in strategy if they gain some more seats and weigh up another Red-Red-Green in Wallonia.

N-VA's negotiations with VB lasted for a few weeks even though both knew it was unfeasible, although as ex VLD leader Rutten revealed, they were at the point of offering VLD a place in a right-wing coalition.