Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[Zinneke]

Yes, what this country needs right now more than ever is testimonial parties blocking any chance of governments being formed...I guess that's a one way ticket to breaking our record Laki, but not to improving living poor, handicapped, and workers conditions, other than to bring the PS further to the left thus ruling out any federal majority.

For Marxists, PVDA-PTB voters sure do like the status quo.

[Zinneke]

So the thing that always interests foreign observers...scission of Belgium...

From Le Soir/ipsos/RTL :

Are you in favour of a referendum on a split of Belgium given there is no government for a year :

Belgium (as a whole) :
40% pro-referendum
50% against referendum
10% uninterested/undecided

Flanders
43% pro-ref
47% against
10% uninterested/undecided

Brussels
33% pro-ref
58% against
9% uninterested/undecided

Wallonia
35% pro-ref
55% against
10%  uninterested/undecided

How they would vote in the referendum :

Belgium
28% for the split
60% against the split
12% non voters

Flanders :
37% for the split of Belgium
50% against the split of Belgium
13% non voters

Brussels
17% for the split
72% against
11% non voters


Wallonia
14% for the split
76% against
10% undecided.

[Zinneke]

Yes, what this country needs right now more than ever is testimonial parties blocking any chance of governments being formed...I guess that's a one way ticket to breaking our record Laki, but not to improving living poor, handicapped, and workers conditions, other than to bring the PS further to the left thus ruling out any federal majority.

For Marxists, PVDA-PTB voters sure do like the status quo.

Honestly the fact that Belgium can't form a government is a problem of Belgian politicians (same here to be honest).

In my opinion, its the fault of the testimonial parties because NVA and PS simply have no room to manoeuvre now that VB and PTB are breathing down their neck respectively. Their voters (the ones who are well off, I'm not talking about Laki or poorer VB voters who I sympathize with) are often voting that way to signal to those two parties to stop compromising. What does that achieve?! It's just plain political arson. I'd like these parties and their antipolitical voters to get their hands dirty, because other than student frat parties I don't think these people can organise anything. but then with VB especially basic human rights are at risk so I'd rather thus they get their hands dirty elsewhere than my country. Like Antarctica or something.

Hypothetically Belgium could also get some sort of electoral system that is majoritarian in nature, like say a 2 round system like France, FPTP like the UK or even a majority bonus like Greece (probably split on sectarian lines).

No because our entire societal model (loosely similar to the Dutch one) is based on consociational politics. It creates "Belgian compromises " but the whole point is that there is an entire caste of mandate holders, politicians, civil servants, labour aristocrats, big bosses claiming to speak on behalf of the entire bourgeois class, and civil society orgs that all profit from this system. They'll never let it break with majoritarianism.

Then again IMO the biggest problem in Belgium is the fact that the parties are split on sectarian lines (except PTB/PvdA). Government formation might be easier if the results looked like this instead

Socialist Party: 29
Liberal Party: 26
N-VA: 25
Green Party: 21
VB: 18
Christian Democratic Party: 17
PvdA-PTB: 12
DeFI: 2

Then again I will admit even with this it is hard to form a stable government. A Socialist-Liberal-Green government does have a majority though, so why hasn't it been done? It would also cut a 6 party coalition into only 3 parties.

Reality is that these 3 families actually do cooperate a lot now, but for practical purposes. For example, MR-VLD thought about merging their federal parliamentary group so they could overtake ECOLO-Groen and thus get more presidencies of committees.

The idea of them campaigning together makes no sense as long as the constituencies exist for federal elections. The federal unified electoral district is something touted by a lot of people (including NVA) but it puts into question the idea of francophone minority rights...it gives a lot more power to the Flemish electorate for federal matters. I'm in favour of it because Brussels is electorally speaking unrepresented.

Sidenote: Why does Belgium not have repeat elections like Spain or Israel in cases of deadlock? Maybe a new election would get things unstuck.

Recently there was talk of emulating Spain and then Vox happened and...yeah...although we don't have the issue of turnout.

It's also because we have fixed term regional parliaments, meaning that federal politics being significantly changed and out of sync with regional elections it might be detrimental (I don't buy it but whatever - I think there is some argument that having a midterm is detrimental though, like in the US).

and there is still an unwritten rule in Belgian politics that "the voter's will must be respected". The problem is we have never been so polarised as this current federal parliament.

[Zinneke]

Who is more supportive of independence? The youth or the old?

Youth (although I'm using VB as a proxy)

In Wallonia rattachists are very old.

[Zinneke]

Who is more supportive of independence? The youth or the old?

Youth (although I'm using VB as a proxy)

In Wallonia rattachists are very old.

I mean, let's be honest. In the case of Belgium exploding, Wallonia will certainly not want initially to join France. But that would be still inevitable in the end as this region can't be objectively economically independent and the french constitution allows giving massive autonomy to some region.

You realise there is a microstate on Wallonia's border that is pretty successful right? I think in the current EU set up it's not impossible for Wallonia to be an independent state. They would initially have a 20% budget reduction in case of a split but they'd probably negotiate some insane debt split in their favour with Flanders that compensates that.

Anyway I already explained elsewhere why it would even make more sense for Wallonia to join Germany more than France. But then again I don't know how Walloons would react politically to scission.

[Zinneke]

Who is more supportive of independence? The youth or the old?

Youth (although I'm using VB as a proxy)

In Wallonia rattachists are very old.

I mean, let's be honest. In the case of Belgium exploding, Wallonia will certainly not want initially to join France. But that would be still inevitable in the end as this region can't be objectively economically independent and the french constitution allows giving massive autonomy to some region.

You realise there is a microstate on Wallonia's border that is pretty successful right? I think in the current EU set up it's not impossible for Wallonia to be an independent state. They would initially have a 20% budget reduction in case of a split but they'd probably negotiate some insane debt split in their favour with Flanders that compensates that.

Anyway I already explained elsewhere why it would even make more sense for Wallonia to join Germany more than France. But then again I don't know how Walloons would react politically to scission.

Well I think your comment bolded sums up quite my view that Wallonia couldn't remain alone and would have to join France, Germany or an another country.

And as for Luxembourg, this is way different than Wallonia.

yes but when you consider that half of the Belgian taxpayers money goes towards servicing debt then the debt relief Wallonia would almost certainly negotiate itself out of (being the unwilling party in the partition) would alleviate short term fears. The debt is arguably a bigger obstacle for Flemish nationalism than Brussels.

[Zinneke]

Bouchez-Coens as informateurs have released a more centre-right nota and have indicated that they prefer to let the NVA back in than work on their Vivaldi coalition (tripartite + Greens). The FGTB has already called PS and ECOLO to reject another 5 years of NVA.

[Zinneke]

Emir Kir, the Mayor of St Josse and federal parliamentarian, has been expelled from the PS for meeting with the Turkish far right in his commune (that is a large Turkish community with, er, strong links to You Know Who). This means the PS favored coalition of Purple+ is even more out of the window, now needing minor party support, but also that we will likely see Kir, who was mayor for several decades there, set up his own personalist pro-Turk party in Brussels, similar to Denk.  

[Zinneke]

Emir Kir, the Mayor of St Josse and federal parliamentarian, has been expelled from the PS for meeting with the Turkish far right in his commune (that is a large Turkish community with, er, strong links to You Know Who). This means the PS favored coalition of Purple+ is even more out of the window, now needing minor party support, but also that we will likely see Kir, who was mayor for several decades there, set up his own personalist pro-Turk party in Brussels, similar to Denk.  

Yes, i just read about it. It's good that this happens. Strong condemnation of meeting with the far-right, and i don't care about a pro-Turk party, and yes it will be succesful, but it's again proof of "failed immigration". Such people have no place in our politics.

Kir is the worst kind of political opportunist. His ignorant fanboys though are just brainwashed. They are sometimes second or third generation immigrants who are considered backwards and foreign to actual Turks but that Erdogan maintained a relationship with (just like Morocco did with the Berbers who they treated like absolute cow dung until they "exported" them here). These guys are Belgians and our responsibility. It's our education and public services that drove them into the hands of Turkish nationalists. Our politicians, left and right, that instrumentalise serious foreign policy issues like the Armenian Genocide and Israel-Palestine to dog whistle certain communities to mobilise for them. And of course the PS is still a mostly white, very Belgian party that allows this kind of bizarre thing to happen in plain sight in their Brussels wing. And of course the Vlaams Belang flyers essentially calling you surplus to requirements in the country you were born in too does not help either.

Tldr This isn't a failure of immigration. It's a failure of education.

Anyway St Josse is gentrifying so quickly I don't expect it to remain Kir's fief for long. The EU youth there though need to get off their arse and vote rather than sticking their head in the sand only to occasionally pop outcomplaining that Brussels in ineffecient , etc

[Zinneke]

PS has said they're not interested to form a government with N-VA. Today Bouchez-Coens will resign, and De Wever or De Wever-Magnette will be appointed. There is again discussion about refederalization or confederalization of the country. We have currently no government for 248 days. No-one wants new elections and we need a majority in federal parliament for that. It's a possibility there will be no federal government until 2024 (1800 days without a government)

Bouchez and Coens have been renewed. Bouchez wanted Rousseau (the leader of the 5th largest party in Flanders) to become an informateur but thats out of the question. Its clear De Wever has no choice but to follow whatever VB voters want him to do so delay and delay.

I think we will get new elections. I can't see any other way out of this. Its really time the Flemish nationalists and the people who vote for parties on the federal level with no interest in compromise especially (thinking of VB, PTB/PVDA here) have their cake an eat it.

[Zinneke]

Geens has resigned as informateur. He was hoping to bring the PS and N-VA together but Magnette made it clear this morning it wasn't going to happen and the N-VA continue their own Calimero act of "We're willing to negotiate, but only on our terms".

King must give it to an NVA official if only for symbolic reasons now. A real sense that new elections are the only thing that will happen.

Magnette also talked about a potential referendum for the first time, which is a Rubicon for Francophone politicians, that personally I am glad they have finally crossed.

[Zinneke]

Geens has resigned as informateur. He was hoping to bring the PS and N-VA together but Magnette made it clear this morning it wasn't going to happen and the N-VA continue their own Calimero act of "We're willing to negotiate, but only on our terms".

King must give it to an NVA official if only for symbolic reasons now. A real sense that new elections are the only thing that will happen.

Magnette also talked about a potential referendum for the first time, which is a Rubicon for Francophone politicians, that personally I am glad they have finally crossed.

In theory could a N-VAer become pm?

Yes, its been touted before and after elections when before 2014 it was unthinkable.

[Zinneke]

Geens has resigned as informateur. He was hoping to bring the PS and N-VA together but Magnette made it clear this morning it wasn't going to happen and the N-VA continue their own Calimero act of "We're willing to negotiate, but only on our terms".

King must give it to an NVA official if only for symbolic reasons now. A real sense that new elections are the only thing that will happen.

Magnette also talked about a potential referendum for the first time, which is a Rubicon for Francophone politicians, that personally I am glad they have finally crossed.

A referendum on what?

"The institutional future of the country"

The issue is that its unclear whether NVA voters vote NVA to be sure to have a right-wing federal government or genuinely out of a wish to one day secede or stop transfers. Most studies on their voters show only 10-15% of NVA voters actually prioritising institutional reform.

The francophones are ready to campaign on that ground. They already spoke as a united front defending Brussels' regional status when NVA came out with their ridiculous plan for having two citizenship models for one city. They want to see if the NVA will escalate enough to potentially alienate risk-averse voters.

[Zinneke]

There you have why we will not get out of this crisis. Any person who compromises will be labelled a traitor to the Flemish nation or on the Francophone side a dismantler of the Belgian state. The kind of people that read Dedecker for in depth analysis (not necessarily targeting you Laki, but your workerism is part of the problem) will hang people out to dry. Rutten may be a careerist but at least she's not a coward who sits on the sidelines and shouts.

[Zinneke]

There you have why we will not get out of this crisis. Any person who compromises will be labelled a traitor to the Flemish nation or on the Francophone side a dismantler of the Belgian state. The kind of people that read Dedecker for in depth analysis (not necessarily targeting you Laki, but your workerism is part of the problem) will hang people out to dry. Rutten may be a careerist but at least she's not a coward who sits on the sidelines and shouts.

The PDVA/PTB is for a unitary state though? Aren’t they?

Yep, but only on their terms. They are an authentically Marxist-Leninist party, their supporters just don't know it yet.

[Zinneke]

Polls. A lot of this was done pre-Corona lockdown.

WALLONIE

PS 25,5%
MR 19,6%
PTB 18,6%
Ecolo 15,5%
cdH 7,5%
Défi +0,4%

FLANDRE

Vlaams Belang 28%
N-VA 20,7%
CD&V 11,7%
Open Vld 10,3%
sp.a 9,6%
PVDA (aile flamande PTB) 9,3%

BRUXELLES

PS 20,5%
Ecolo 20,3%
MR 17,6%
PTB 12,2%
Défi 10%
cdH 3,8%

[Zinneke]

Which is why PS, NVA have been negotiating and will form a unity government freezing out VB and PTB. De Wever wanted to be PM but it makes no sense in this crisis situation especially when Wilmès is a) bilingual b) popular on both sides of the border and c) knows all the tabs.

De Wever and the N-VA's behaviour has been utter sh**te throughout.

[Zinneke]

Yeah I'd say PTB are really polling at 15% right now. No way on election day are they actually getting past 20% bar a massive event...but well this is a massive event.

[Zinneke]

For some reason talks failed and PS and ECOLO - groen will lend support  to this government.

PS and NVA... Utter clowns.

EDIT : looks like N-VA maintained that they wanted an N-VA PM...If they had the public interest at heart and thought that Wilmes was not up to the job, why not nominate a technocrat? or Health Minister Maggie de Block?

[Zinneke]

Wait so what will be the composition of the government?

In government you will have the same ministers, only they will be supported by PS and ECOLO-groen from the outside. Small parties like cdH and Défi (and I guess you can add sp.a) have also made themselves available.

PS is resolutely behind Wilmès while N-VA wanted her gone (they have a grudge against her because she is a Francophone from the Brussels Periphery and outspoken campaigner for Periphery Francophones in the past - they can't seem to be compromising with such a figure with VB at 28% in the polls, even in this time of crisis).

I would still install a technocratic government with maybe Health Minister De Block as PM to give it political legitimacy and silence the Flamingants saying they are governed by Francophones as if we are in the 1850s, but N-VA went full on "We need De Wever, a professional academic who shat the bed twice this week in response to federal measures and has insulted Walloons in the past, as the unity PM or we walk away". Sorry but its not a serious party of government when it comes with those demands IMO.

If there is a time for a temporary unity government it is this one given the crisis situation combined with the deadlock. In fact I would even invite PTB/PvdA and VB to said unity government; the whole point of a unity government is to have no (meaningful) opposition.

1. They would refuse. They just want to oppose everything. VB on twitter is something to behold...and although Raoul Hedebouw has toned down his criticisms of the government he has no interest in joining a government. He might support some bills.
2. You would break the Cordon Sanitaire which suits nobody politically, and many Belgians would rather the current mess than those two parties anywhere near a ministerial role.

[Zinneke]

Last night all the democratic parties decide to afford the government of current affairs full emergency powers for 6 months.

[Zinneke]

Looks like the PS is already reconsidering its options going into the end of the emergency government's term in june, with rumours that Magnette will explode the majority in place. Already several other parties had distanced themselves, but it means a resouring of relations between Magnette and the MR. Magnette is under considerable pressure from the big trade unions to play hard ball. 

[Zinneke]

Why is there a cordon sanitaire on the PTB?

There is none officially.

Why is there a cordon sanitaire on the PTB?

It’s a real party of the working class in that it is free from the influences of those holding the most capital.

Its a front for a particular brand of Marxist anti-imp cultists who grand stand about their actions helping the working class but who actually have very sinister views behind them. Have they disowned Ludo Martens and his Stalinism yet? Or their brief foray into islamist circles in early 2000s? Make no mistake they have the same blinkered cold war self-destructive views but have learnt to hide them more effectively behind the charsima of Raoul Hedebouw and the workerism of Peter Mertens, as well as their social programs which inadvertently do help the working class, yes.


The demand for an anti-capitalist party after 2008 was there, and PTB's high church met it.

[Zinneke]

Why is there a cordon sanitaire on the PTB?

There is none officially.

Why is there a cordon sanitaire on the PTB?

It’s a real party of the working class in that it is free from the influences of those holding the most capital.

Its a front for a particular brand of cultists who grand stand about their actions helping the working class but who actually have very sinister views behind them. Have they disowned Ludo Martens and his Stalinism yet? Or their brief foray into islamist circles in early 2000s? Make no mistake they have the same blinkered cold war self-destructive views but have learnt to hide them more effectively behind the charsima of Raoul Hedebouw and the workerism of Peter Martens, as well as their social programs which inadvertently do help the working class, yes.


The demand for an anti-capitalist party after 2008 was there, and PTB's high church met it.

Can you please stay a bit objective, thanks. Those are all lies. Ludo Martens is the past.

He may be the past and never talked about anymore but the fact remains the PTB have never actively tried to have a proper debate about their past. They entirely focus on enacting Chantalle Mouffe's idea of building working class consciousness through a conveyor belt of activities outside of party politics such as the people's hospitals with the goal of achieving a dédiabolisation effect on their brand. Its the equivalent of those "voluntary border patrols" that French neo-fascists are organising in the Alps to build their image or Schild & Vrienden's "community spirit" bs activities. Its right out of the playbook of weird American religious cults.

This is why party politics and the rest of civil society mixing is not necessarily the most intelligent thing to do...but then the traditional parties are no better with their unions, mutualities and what not...Magnette litterally on the front cover of every francophone newspaper with the FGTB and Solidaris Presidents being a case in point.

[Zinneke]

By the way: in Poland often political adversaries say that Tusk "fled" to Brussels with him accepting post in the EU structures. Do Belgian politicians use such narratives against Van Rompuy or Michel? How Belgian public opinion views such "promotions"?

People here treat Europe as just another part of government most of the time so its not seen as a betrayal in the slightest. It can be seen as careerist though. Van Rompuy left during a crisis (Leterme to OCDE too). Michel was labelled as a Macron puppet by the Walloon Left. But it was not seen as a betrayal of patriotic values in the slightest.


In terms of actual poll ratings it has no direct effect.