Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024 (user search)
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Poll
Question: Do you think Chez Nous will get seats?
#1
No, they won't get even 2,5% in Wallonia and Brussels  (what would happen accoding to recent polls)
 
#2
No, but they will get votes in the 2,5%-4,99% rango in Wallonia and/or Brussels
 
#3
No. They will pass the 5% threshold in Wallonia and/or Brussels, but somehow they won't get seats.
 
#4
Yes, they will get 1-2 seats
 
#5
Yes, they will get more than 2 seats
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 16

Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024  (Read 137150 times)
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

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« Reply #125 on: December 14, 2019, 09:39:20 AM »



Virtually 19 seats for marxists.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #126 on: December 21, 2019, 06:15:10 AM »

It's not how it works, but I think new elections would be better. The problem is that new elections won't solve the problem. According to polls, the situation would only get worse, as PVDA and VB will never enter federal government. (regional government is a possibility for the future). But i'm hoping for new elections because my political party will likely grow. It also shows that there is still a vacuum left for a populist center party which could siphon votes from N-VA, VB and PVDA i think if it's pro-environment and anti-immigration (although done correctly and reasonable), while VB's proposals are outright racist and filled with real fascists like Dries Van Langenhove.

I spoke with a friend about politics. He called the s.pa chairman a whipster only chosen to appeal to people like him, which surely won't happen, he said. He voted Green-PVDA and will likely vote for them again.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #127 on: January 18, 2020, 10:15:37 AM »

Emir Kir, the Mayor of St Josse and federal parliamentarian, has been expelled from the PS for meeting with the Turkish far right in his commune (that is a large Turkish community with, er, strong links to You Know Who). This means the PS favored coalition of Purple+ is even more out of the window, now needing minor party support, but also that we will likely see Kir, who was mayor for several decades there, set up his own personalist pro-Turk party in Brussels, similar to Denk.  
Yes, i just read about it. It's good that this happens. Strong condemnation of meeting with the far-right, and i don't care about a pro-Turk party, and yes it will be succesful, but it's again proof of "failed immigration". Such people have no place in our politics.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #128 on: January 18, 2020, 12:39:20 PM »

Emir Kir, the Mayor of St Josse and federal parliamentarian, has been expelled from the PS for meeting with the Turkish far right in his commune (that is a large Turkish community with, er, strong links to You Know Who). This means the PS favored coalition of Purple+ is even more out of the window, now needing minor party support, but also that we will likely see Kir, who was mayor for several decades there, set up his own personalist pro-Turk party in Brussels, similar to Denk.  
Yes, i just read about it. It's good that this happens. Strong condemnation of meeting with the far-right, and i don't care about a pro-Turk party, and yes it will be succesful, but it's again proof of "failed immigration". Such people have no place in our politics.

Kir is the worst kind of political opportunist. His ignorant fanboys though are just brainwashed. They are sometimes second or third generation immigrants who are considered backwards and foreign to actual Turks but that Erdogan maintained a relationship with (just like Morocco did with the Berbers who they treated like absolute cow dung until they "exported" them here). These guys are Belgians and our responsibility. It's our education and public services that drove them into the hands of Turkish nationalists. Our politicians, left and right, that instrumentalise serious foreign policy issues like the Armenian Genocide and Israel-Palestine to dog whistle certain communities to mobilise for them. And of course the PS is still a mostly white, very Belgian party that allows this kind of bizarre thing to happen in plain sight in their Brussels wing. And of course the Vlaams Belang flyers essentially calling you surplus to requirements in the country you were born in too does not help either.

Tldr This isn't a failure of immigration. It's a failure of education.

Anyway St Josse is gentrifying so quickly I don't expect it to remain Kir's fief for long. The EU youth there though need to get off their arse and vote rather than sticking their head in the sand only to occasionally pop outcomplaining that Brussels in ineffecient , etc

The failed immigration is our responsibility, but it's still an example of failed integration into our country. That's why i'm in favour of focusing on integrating 2nd and 3rd gen immigrants instead of importing a lot of new ones, not meaning we shouldn't take in refugees, but we should on long-term focus on sending them back to redevelop and rebuild their country. Now is the time to focus on people who are here, who are left out of our society.

Our education is good, among the best in the world. First focus should be on learning both languages of the country and making sure they speak dutch or french at home, and especially in class, at school and during recess on schools. A requirement to integrate well into our country is that they speak very well one of our languages, the language that's being spoken at their school.

PS is using immigrants for electoral purposes. They should criticize what's not done very well. Molenbeek is the perfect example of this. The mayor should have taken actions a long time ago, and he didn't for electoral purposes. That's what annoys me, and a lot of left-wing parties do that.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #129 on: January 28, 2020, 10:39:32 AM »

PS has said they're not interested to form a government with N-VA. Today Bouchez-Coens will resign, and De Wever or De Wever-Magnette will be appointed. There is again discussion about refederalization or confederalization of the country. We have currently no government for 248 days. No-one wants new elections and we need a majority in federal parliament for that. It's a possibility there will be no federal government until 2024 (1800 days without a government)
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #130 on: January 29, 2020, 06:48:38 AM »

PS has said they're not interested to form a government with N-VA. Today Bouchez-Coens will resign, and De Wever or De Wever-Magnette will be appointed. There is again discussion about refederalization or confederalization of the country. We have currently no government for 248 days. No-one wants new elections and we need a majority in federal parliament for that. It's a possibility there will be no federal government until 2024 (1800 days without a government)

Bouchez and Coens have been renewed. Bouchez wanted Rousseau (the leader of the 5th largest party in Flanders) to become an informateur but thats out of the question. Its clear De Wever has no choice but to follow whatever VB voters want him to do so delay and delay.

I think we will get new elections. I can't see any other way out of this. Its really time the Flemish nationalists and the people who vote for parties on the federal level with no interest in compromise especially (thinking of VB, PTB/PVDA here) have their cake an eat it.
I disagree. Compromising is okay, but abandoning all your ideals and whatever you fight for, is not done. N-VA has no interest to compromise. Their proposal to PS was simply not done. PS would lose everything and gain nothing. We need elections, but I doubt they will bring new solutions, as polling indicates that VB and PVDA-PTB would continue to grow.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #131 on: January 31, 2020, 01:37:58 PM »

Coens and Bouchez resigned now. Geens is currently at the Royal Palace, assumingly being asked by the King if he would be willing to join a Vivaldi coalition after they've said they're tied with N-VA.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #132 on: February 16, 2020, 10:48:56 AM »

I'm hoping for new elections here. Problem is that only the far-right and far-left and maybe the Greens will continue to grow. And that the traditional parties + N-VA keep falling in opinion polls, making the deadlock much more problematic. Elections aren't the solution to this government formation crisis. It will only make them tougher, but maybe it isn't a bad thing that "extremist" parties, and the consequent left parties will grow. Traditional parties deserve a historic loss after this debacle.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #133 on: February 17, 2020, 11:25:48 AM »

New elections seem to get likelier and likelier - 266 days without a government. Our media reports that the formation process is completely blocked, and that pressure for new elections is rising. The far-right clearly wants new elections. Others are more hesistant about it but secretly preparing for it. I think no-one believes in a solution.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #134 on: February 17, 2020, 11:51:43 AM »

Five options:

1. Purple - Yellow is death. PS said radically no. N-VA called for the formation of a Flemish front against the French-speaking Social Democrats

2. Vivaldi: CD&V says radically no. "We are allied with N-VA", they say. We want a majority on Flemish side. There is always Défi and cdH that can jump in to give purple - green a majority

3. Purple-green + Défi + cdH. This is something the Open VLD wouldn't want. It would ignore the Flemish, because all Walloon parties would be part of it, while only two out of the 7 Flemish parties would join Purple-green + Défi + cdH. Open VLD is right-wing so they have said this is not an option, because they would surely be decimated in 2024.

4. New elections: Right now, most likeliest option because it has no sense to go on. But no-one wants it either, because there would be two, maybe three winners. The far-right, the greens and the far-left. All other parties would lose according to opinion polls, and there is no majority for new elections.

5. Continuing the deadlock and waiting for 2024: Another option, is to go on with Wilmès 1 and continue that. But that would economically be a disaster for Belgium. All other parties could pretend to talk, or could be in an election modus for the rest of the 5 years, but if that happens radical parties will win in 2024. But it's an option i have considered too. Does anyone want this. Maybe not as an option, but it could inevitably happen. At least, we would improve our own Guinness World Record with it.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #135 on: February 17, 2020, 05:33:08 PM »

https://www.7sur7.be/dossier-formation-gouvernementale/magnette-nous-ne-voulons-pas-construire-des-fronts-nous-voulons-construire-des-ponts~aaa559e9/?utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1P1UPeI_SakVKe_FdPzWm_OkUzy6QHUMH8iuPB2xzbe0TxvhzQWJh26OM&referrer=https://www.facebook.com/

PS chairman: "We don't want to build fronts, we want to build bridges."

Notice the divide between CD&V and cdH and s.pa and PS. I'm sometimes ashamed of being Flemish. I'm proud of Wallonia. Paul Magnette is a hero to having say no to puirple-yellow. If it depended on s.pa we would already have an asocial purple-yellow government.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #136 on: February 19, 2020, 05:43:35 AM »

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/02/18/rondvraag-nieuwe-verkiezingen/

PVDA + VB + Jean-Marie Dedecker wants new elections. N-VA is undecided. Other parties want to try out the Vivaldi coalition. Although CD&V wants a majority on Flemish side, and that's technically not possible, without N-VA, PVDA and VB.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #137 on: February 24, 2020, 01:29:52 PM »



Rutten not seeking re-election. New chairman elections underway. Open VLD might drop to 10% next time accordding to polls.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #138 on: March 04, 2020, 11:41:52 AM »

There you have why we will not get out of this crisis. Any person who compromises will be labelled a traitor to the Flemish nation or on the Francophone side a dismantler of the Belgian state. The kind of people that read Dedecker for in depth analysis (not necessarily targeting you Laki, but your workerism is part of the problem) will hang people out to dry. Rutten may be a careerist but at least she's not a coward who sits on the sidelines and shouts.
The PDVA/PTB is for a unitary state though? Aren’t they?
They're for a unitary state, and they're not a marxist-leninist party. That's fake. They're a marxist party, democratic socialist, socialist, ecosocialist, feminist, name it, but they're not an authoritarian marxist-leninist party. I would refuse to join such a party.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #139 on: March 04, 2020, 11:43:47 AM »

Emergency government talks because of corona... Now we have corona infecting people in Belgium, they want a government as soon as possible. They are afraid of an economic crisis, and want to be able to intervene more, or deploy a policy. The media has called it already the possible corona government.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #140 on: March 14, 2020, 10:10:17 AM »

Polls. A lot of this was done pre-Corona lockdown.

WALLONIE

PS 25,5%
MR 19,6%
PTB 18,6%
Ecolo 15,5%
cdH 7,5%
Défi +0,4%

FLANDRE

Vlaams Belang 28%
N-VA 20,7%
CD&V 11,7%
Open Vld 10,3%
sp.a 9,6%
PVDA (aile flamande PTB) 9,3%

BRUXELLES

PS 20,5%
Ecolo 20,3%
MR 17,6%
PTB 12,2%
Défi 10%
cdH 3,8%

In flanders: VB + PVDA= 37 % wow, for a rich region...
People are fed up with the political system and lockdown. (not the corona one).
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #141 on: May 12, 2020, 03:06:01 AM »

Why is there a cordon sanitaire on the PTB?

There is none officially.

Why is there a cordon sanitaire on the PTB?

It’s a real party of the working class in that it is free from the influences of those holding the most capital.

Its a front for a particular brand of cultists who grand stand about their actions helping the working class but who actually have very sinister views behind them. Have they disowned Ludo Martens and his Stalinism yet? Or their brief foray into islamist circles in early 2000s? Make no mistake they have the same blinkered cold war self-destructive views but have learnt to hide them more effectively behind the charsima of Raoul Hedebouw and the workerism of Peter Martens, as well as their social programs which inadvertently do help the working class, yes.


The demand for an anti-capitalist party after 2008 was there, and PTB's high church met it.
Can you please stay a bit objective, thanks. Those are all lies. Ludo Martens is the past.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #142 on: May 12, 2020, 10:32:03 AM »

Why is there a cordon sanitaire on the PTB?

There is none officially.

Why is there a cordon sanitaire on the PTB?

It’s a real party of the working class in that it is free from the influences of those holding the most capital.

Its a front for a particular brand of cultists who grand stand about their actions helping the working class but who actually have very sinister views behind them. Have they disowned Ludo Martens and his Stalinism yet? Or their brief foray into islamist circles in early 2000s? Make no mistake they have the same blinkered cold war self-destructive views but have learnt to hide them more effectively behind the charsima of Raoul Hedebouw and the workerism of Peter Martens, as well as their social programs which inadvertently do help the working class, yes.


The demand for an anti-capitalist party after 2008 was there, and PTB's high church met it.
Can you please stay a bit objective, thanks. Those are all lies. Ludo Martens is the past.

He may be the past and never talked about anymore but the fact remains the PTB have never actively tried to have a proper debate about their past. They entirely focus on enacting Chantalle Mouffe's idea of building working class consciousness through a conveyor belt of activities outside of party politics such as the people's hospitals with the goal of achieving a dédiabolisation effect on their brand. Its the equivalent of those "voluntary border patrols" that French neo-fascists are organising in the Alps to build their image or Schild & Vrienden's "community spirit" bs activities. Its right out of the playbook of weird American religious cults.

This is why party politics and the rest of civil society mixing is not necessarily the most intelligent thing to do...but then the traditional parties are no better with their unions, mutualities and what not...Magnette litterally on the front cover of every francophone newspaper with the FGTB and Solidaris Presidents being a case in point.
Every party has it's dark side, and yes PTB-PVDA have a very dark side, but they seem to have moved away from it. I don't see what is wrong with people's hospitals. If anything, they have been of great help during this COVID-19 crisis, being of great help. That's far from the equivalent from fascist neo-nazi groups like S&V and in defence of N-VA and Vlaams Belang, they have nothing to do with it. It's a group of radicalized youth who think they're more important than they really are, and ashamed N-VA and even VB for a moment, until they saw on social media many people defending S&V. The cult around DVL and S&V is disgusting and neo-fascist charasteric number one.

Ludo Martens is the past, and that they don't talk about their past is good, because PVDA-PTB should be very ashamed of it. They shouldn't be proud of it. Some of it's members are still radical stalinists although that's a small minority. I've recently seen a post where someone congratulated Stalin on his victory against Nazi-Germany on 8 may, but he got criticized for it by both me & others. Stalinism is not done for me. And is as worse as fascism, period.

Personally, i wouldn't call myself a communist, or maybe i am. But i'm pragmatist, and don't believe in a revolution or in overthrowing the system but in gradual evolution and gradual transition to a better system. We don't have to abandon capitalism. We have to fight the greedy multinationals however and evolve towards a fairer and more equal society, with respect to individual rights, freedom and differences. There's something very wrong in this society, and that made me politically active. I have a lot of respect for PS and Ecolo as well, less however for the Flemish greens and s.pa whose leader i can not stand. The Greens are right now my second choice. Open VLD is my third choice. s.pa is my fourth choice, but after PVDA, i would likely vote for irrelevant parties like Pirate Party or the animal rights party or European Spring movement on European level.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #143 on: May 12, 2020, 01:49:07 PM »

By the way: in Poland often political adversaries say that Tusk "fled" to Brussels with him accepting post in the EU structures. Do Belgian politicians use such narratives against Van Rompuy or Michel? How Belgian public opinion views such "promotions"?

People here treat Europe as just another part of government most of the time so its not seen as a betrayal in the slightest. It can be seen as careerist though. Van Rompuy left during a crisis (Leterme to OCDE too). Michel was labelled as a Macron puppet by the Walloon Left. But it was not seen as a betrayal of patriotic values in the slightest.


In terms of actual poll ratings it has no direct effect.
In case of Kris Peeters or Annemie Turtelboom, it was the case, so i would say yes, but it's more something about individuals. Michel was however actually quite popular.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #144 on: May 22, 2020, 09:37:12 AM »

Open VLD has a new chairman Egbert Lachaert who represents the right-wing of Open VLD. VLD will likely get a name change.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #145 on: May 22, 2020, 10:39:15 AM »

https://www.facebook.com/DHaeseJ/videos/2357345864563068 LOL

"The danger comes from the left. The commies have as many seats as Flemish liberals.... Well well well."
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #146 on: May 22, 2020, 01:30:24 PM »

Open VLD has a new chairman Egbert Lachaert who represents the right-wing of Open VLD. VLD will likely get a name change.

What do you think changes with the party's new leader? And what do you think the party's name will change to?
Not much. But it's another sharp turn to the right. VB talked about the defeat of the left-liberal establishment. Greens might become the new liberal.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #147 on: May 22, 2020, 01:37:22 PM »

If i could RCV with Walloon parties included, it would be something like this

1. PVDA
2. PS
3. Ecolo
4. Groen
5. MR
6. cdH
7. s.pa
8. CD&V
9. Open VLD
10. VB
11. N-VA
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #148 on: May 23, 2020, 03:25:36 AM »

If Open VLD goes right, that seems counterproductive as doesn't Flemish region already vote heavily right so why would it need another right wing party?  Also how come Flanders votes so heavily to right and Wallonia to left?  Any reason for that sharp divide.  Comparing to North America its almost like Flanders is akin to Alberta in Canada and Wallonia akin to Quebec while for US, Flanders would be like Wyoming and Wallonia like Vermont in terms of which way the tilt and one sided dominance.
Because Flanders is just very right-wing and has many right-wing voters, there's more to gain on the right than on the left for VLD, except for in the cities. VLD has lately become more & more a rural & suburban party (some sort of farmer's and small business owners party) than an urban party and this trend will continue, although they do have strongholds in several cities (Ghent, Mechelen, Oudenaarde). The problem is that outside those cities there are few social liberal voters left over. Social liberal parties have left in the past, and now choose between mainly between three parties federally: Open VLD, s.pa and a majority for the s.pa. There just aren't that many in our country.

I would also argue that you have two categories of right-wing voters, economically right-wing voters (mainly N-VA and Open VLD), while the other category (VB and N-VA) are socially conservative (although still relatively liberal compared to other parts of the world), and economically populist, like VB campaigns on: "First OUR people, than other people", and they draw this line to every aspect of their policy proposals, like social security for other people, yes certainly, but first for us. Many people are also one-issue voters, like immigration for example, and people tend to be right-wing on that. Someone can be left-wing but not believe in mass immigration and vote for VB because they want to stop mass immigration. I think that's the case for many people. Flanders really isn't that economically right-wing or homophobic, we vote for right-wing parties for other reasons. It doesn't help either that the left, aside of us, doesn't have strong recognizable persons / figures in politics, and are nitpicking on almost every little thing. They're perceived as elitist (but VLD and CD&V are that as well). N-VA still profits from still being an "outsider", sometimes being VB lite, and saying stupid things that will encourage people who are on the brink of jumping ships to stay with N-VA.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,165
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Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #149 on: May 23, 2020, 03:34:26 AM »
« Edited: May 23, 2020, 03:38:37 AM by Laki »



New polling. No "corona boost" for centrist parties, extremes keep gaining.

CD&V -3.5
Groen +1
N-VA -4.5
Open VLD -1.5
PVDA +2.9
s.pa +0.6
VB +6

PVDA goes from 4 seats to 9 seats virtually in Flanders, which is a result i would immediately sign for.

The marxist Peter Mertens is also in the 5 most popular politicians of Flanders, which is a first i think for Flanders.



Most people DISAPPROVE the handling of COVID-19 of the government. 76% say they would support a corona tax for the super rich (you say Flanders is right-wing, well here's your counterargument).



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