Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Belgium’s FM on the brink over Iran visas fallout

Politico has an article on it

[Zinneke]

Labhib the Foreign Secretary will also likely resign soon over the Iran visas after she was caught changing her story several times but the MR President Bouchez is pulling out all the stops and trying to do a double or nothing bet on her staying as he really wanted her to front the Brussels campaign after sacrificing Alexia Bertrand to get her. It appears the Vivaldi could even break apart over this issue as De Croo initially backed her and looks very weak now.

What i have never understood or heard about it is...

why did they invite the mayor of Tehran to Brussels?

That is so unclear and confusing to me?

Was it a part of the prison exchange deal?

No, I think the logic is that Brussels was the designated city for this conference of all mayors of the world, and that it would lose this event if it started boycotting all the mayors with blood on their hands (of which Iran is one of many).

The reason the Teheran mayor blew up is because there is pretty much unanimous consensus that Iran is a pariah state even on the left of the political spectrum, both in Belgium and now the whole of Europe. Of course the prisoner exchange adds to this, but people shouldn't underestimate how elements of the Left were very "quiet" on Iran but have thankfully seen the light on their horrific treatment of women and minorities. Of course there are heavy doses of whataboutery to be had here too.

N-VA are not going to criticise any Saudi mayors, they are good customers.

Also, Lahbib's role in this is the approval of the Brussels government request to allocate the visas. In her defense, its likely she did it on auto-pilot mode because the regional governments' request for visas for these type of events are usually less of a request and more of an order because of the way our federal system works. Smet is still for me the main senior responsible figure, and even then he also was probably let down by his cabinet and took the bullet for them. Lahbib just didn't have good instincts - and she is paying the toll for her party president being a hyena himself and calling for Schlitz, Smet and co to resign.

Ngl it would be funny if the government fell because of a foreign policy issue for the second time in a row, in Belgium of  all places.

It happened a lot with the Netherlands too. It's actually very logical these kind of governments are ripped apart by foreign policy decisions (less so one like this though, it is pretty intricate and has more to do with the personalities) - Belgo-Dutch compromises can be hard to find in diplomatic and military affairs where sometimes you just need someone able to put their signature on the dotted line and tell dissenting voices in their party to button it in the name of national interest. This is why for all their faults majoritarian systems are probably for the best in places where you don't want nuclear codes or military operations decided by a council of squabbling ministers.

[Zinneke]

Rousseau has had a complaint against him made by a 24 year old over sexual offenses, his career appears to be soon finished.

Labhib the Foreign Secretary will also likely resign soon over the Iran visas after she was caught changing her story several times but the MR President Bouchez is pulling out all the stops and trying to do a double or nothing bet on her staying as he really wanted her to front the Brussels campaign after sacrificing Alexia Bertrand to get her. It appears the Vivaldi could even break apart over this issue as De Croo initially backed her and looks very weak now. Given that Ecolo minister Schlitz was forced to resign over much less and with MR being part of the wolf pack, they look snookered on this issue. This could also preticipate Bouchez's end as MR President : not only is he intensely disliked by all coalition partners including VLD for his attacks, leading to MR losing out on issues such as these, but internally the Michel clan realise he is a busted flush and a liability when what the Michels care about is just securing cushy jobs for the boys and their friends, not pursuing a populist-Right agenda.

Where do people like Rousseau go after they've been driven from electoral politics?

He is part of the Socialist family so he will end up at  their mutelle (his mother is an ex-Vooruit member who runs it), a trade union job, a think tank position, you name it. He might have presented himself as a political outsider but he is extremely well connected.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Rousseau has had a complaint against him made by a 24 year old over sexual offenses, his career appears to be soon finished.

Labhib the Foreign Secretary will also likely resign soon over the Iran visas after she was caught changing her story several times but the MR President Bouchez is pulling out all the stops and trying to do a double or nothing bet on her staying as he really wanted her to front the Brussels campaign after sacrificing Alexia Bertrand to get her. It appears the Vivaldi could even break apart over this issue as De Croo initially backed her and looks very weak now. Given that Ecolo minister Schlitz was forced to resign over much less and with MR being part of the wolf pack, they look snookered on this issue. This could also preticipate Bouchez's end as MR President : not only is he intensely disliked by all coalition partners including VLD for his attacks, leading to MR losing out on issues such as these, but internally the Michel clan realise he is a busted flush and a liability when what the Michels care about is just securing cushy jobs for the boys and their friends, not pursuing a populist-Right agenda.

Where do people like Rousseau go after they've been driven from electoral politics?

He is part of the Socialist family so he will end up at  their mutelle (his mother is an ex-Vooruit member who runs it), a tade union job, a think tank position, you name it. He might have presented himself as a political outsider but he is extremely well connected.

A trade union job seems unlikely after he went hard after the trade union and drove them into PVDA-PTB's hands.

[Zinneke]

Rousseau has had a complaint against him made by a 24 year old over sexual offenses, his career appears to be soon finished.

Labhib the Foreign Secretary will also likely resign soon over the Iran visas after she was caught changing her story several times but the MR President Bouchez is pulling out all the stops and trying to do a double or nothing bet on her staying as he really wanted her to front the Brussels campaign after sacrificing Alexia Bertrand to get her. It appears the Vivaldi could even break apart over this issue as De Croo initially backed her and looks very weak now. Given that Ecolo minister Schlitz was forced to resign over much less and with MR being part of the wolf pack, they look snookered on this issue. This could also preticipate Bouchez's end as MR President : not only is he intensely disliked by all coalition partners including VLD for his attacks, leading to MR losing out on issues such as these, but internally the Michel clan realise he is a busted flush and a liability when what the Michels care about is just securing cushy jobs for the boys and their friends, not pursuing a populist-Right agenda.

Where do people like Rousseau go after they've been driven from electoral politics?

He is part of the Socialist family so he will end up at  their mutelle (his mother is an ex-Vooruit member who runs it), a tade union job, a think tank position, you name it. He might have presented himself as a political outsider but he is extremely well connected.

A trade union job seems unlikely after he went hard after the trade union and drove them into PVDA-PTB's hands.

Well the ABVV has multiple sectors, some less extreme than others.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah. Belgium.

[Zinneke]

It's slowly emerging that many of the officials following the Mayor of Teheran were spies and that the Immigration Office advised the minister against giving the visas to so many people. Oh boy this is actually worse than I thought.

Bouchez just declared that Lahbib "hasn't made a mistake so doesn't need to resign", De Croo said the debate was over and that it was time to move on. All of the other parties say the opposite.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Rousseau has had a complaint against him made by a 24 year old over sexual offenses, his career appears to be soon finished.

Labhib the Foreign Secretary will also likely resign soon over the Iran visas after she was caught changing her story several times but the MR President Bouchez is pulling out all the stops and trying to do a double or nothing bet on her staying as he really wanted her to front the Brussels campaign after sacrificing Alexia Bertrand to get her. It appears the Vivaldi could even break apart over this issue as De Croo initially backed her and looks very weak now. Given that Ecolo minister Schlitz was forced to resign over much less and with MR being part of the wolf pack, they look snookered on this issue. This could also preticipate Bouchez's end as MR President : not only is he intensely disliked by all coalition partners including VLD for his attacks, leading to MR losing out on issues such as these, but internally the Michel clan realise he is a busted flush and a liability when what the Michels care about is just securing cushy jobs for the boys and their friends, not pursuing a populist-Right agenda.

Where do people like Rousseau go after they've been driven from electoral politics?

He is part of the Socialist family so he will end up at  their mutelle (his mother is an ex-Vooruit member who runs it), a trade union job, a think tank position, you name it. He might have presented himself as a political outsider but he is extremely well connected.

Your rundown of this is quite appreciated, thanks.
I apologize for asking this, but the term "mutelle" isn't really turning up anything on Google. "Mutuelle" implies something related to insurance...is that what you were meaning?

[Zinneke]

Rousseau has had a complaint against him made by a 24 year old over sexual offenses, his career appears to be soon finished.

Labhib the Foreign Secretary will also likely resign soon over the Iran visas after she was caught changing her story several times but the MR President Bouchez is pulling out all the stops and trying to do a double or nothing bet on her staying as he really wanted her to front the Brussels campaign after sacrificing Alexia Bertrand to get her. It appears the Vivaldi could even break apart over this issue as De Croo initially backed her and looks very weak now. Given that Ecolo minister Schlitz was forced to resign over much less and with MR being part of the wolf pack, they look snookered on this issue. This could also preticipate Bouchez's end as MR President : not only is he intensely disliked by all coalition partners including VLD for his attacks, leading to MR losing out on issues such as these, but internally the Michel clan realise he is a busted flush and a liability when what the Michels care about is just securing cushy jobs for the boys and their friends, not pursuing a populist-Right agenda.

Where do people like Rousseau go after they've been driven from electoral politics?

He is part of the Socialist family so he will end up at  their mutelle (his mother is an ex-Vooruit member who runs it), a trade union job, a think tank position, you name it. He might have presented himself as a political outsider but he is extremely well connected.

Your rundown of this is quite appreciated, thanks.
I apologize for asking this, but the term "mutelle" isn't really turning up anything on Google. "Mutuelle" implies something related to insurance...is that what you were meaning?

They are health insurance groups yes and many of them for historic reasons have close ties to the "pillars"/zuilen - you have a Christian mutualite, Socialist mutualite, liberal one and the senior figures within them often can jockey for political selection.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

a political cartoon i found

https://twitter.com/LesNews24/status/1671869660009050117

Meanwhile GLB re-iterates that she will not step down.

(despite him being vocal on other secretaries to resign of other parties, for far less).

He also said that if she resigns MR would drop out of the government, causing the coalition to no longer have a majority.

The Iranian regime really have scored a win here.

Meanwhile they took photographs of the people who protested the Mayor of Tehran visit, apparently to threaten relatives still living in Iran and intimidate Iranian refugees in Belgium that way.



basically these have all been photographed and identified by the diplomats accompanying the mayor of Tehran which turned out to be spies, vital information for instance to know also who might be supporting the protests in Iran.

https://twitter.com/i24NEWS_EN/status/1671919006708645890

a vid in english

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/GP_Tonnelier/status/1671922166646947842

GLB: "Hadja Lahbib has all our trust and that of the MR (political party of GLB). She didn't make an error. From our part, we want to return to the real political issues and we demand an end to these petty political games."

https://twitter.com/politiclub/status/1671930559717687298

People have introduced a motion of distrust although no one really wants to vote on that motion but its for next week. Monday is her last chance. "She has to go or the government collapses" is the consensus.

[Zinneke]

If the Socialist and Green families have any self-respect they will stick the boot in and back the motion to dismiss her. Likely though that in a game of chicken GLB wins...another glorious example of the decay of our political class. Open goal for N-VA/VB

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Lectr is also a good cartoonist. Sad few people can read dutch. Because lol

Left

"We run away from a inhumane regime".
Response: "there is a waiting list, the park is there"

Right

"We are from an inhumane regime"

[PSOL]

Does any political party in Belgium stand for Iranian women and respect their freedom at this point?

[Zinneke]

One person who I bet is happy a potential government-ending scandal is unfolding, and thus taking the limelight away from her, is Marie Arena.

Remember the Qatarigate scandal?

Well it turns out the prosecuting judge, Michel Claise, failed to disclose that his son and Marie Arena's son were in a marijuana CBD extract business together.

As a result, Marc Tarabella, the other Socialist MEP who unlike Arena was actually arrested has had his lawyer "uncover the dirt". And it's slowly emerging that Elio Di Rupo, who considers Arena almost like a sister, was dictating the tempo of the investigation from afar and ensuring "the halfwit from Liège" Tarabella was the one to take the full mediatic spotlight in Belgium. Marc Uyttendaele, a lawyer with strong links to the PS via being the spouse of Laurette Onkelinx, was assigned to Italian former MEP and ringmaster Panzeri (also Arena's lover), who then conveniently struck a plea bargain of sorts that "spilled the beans". Kaili was the most high profile target, Tarabella was also mentioned, but no mention of the person that Kaili instantly called when her Brussels flat was being raided in front of her eyes, the person that had all the institutional power to be able to host pro-Qatar events or allowed Panzeris fake NGO to enter the European Parliament without accreditation : Marie Arena.

Claise has been removed as a judge and the case is slowly turning into a get out of jail free card for many of the perps, some of whom were literally caught with suitcases of cash.

[Zinneke]

Leaks now of a physical altercation between senior ministers at the "Kern" which is like an unofficial cabinet meeting where the most senior party representives in government and the PM make executive decisions.

This article gives a rundown of all the recent tensions , you can put it through google translate:

https://fr.businessam.be/la-vivaldi-se-delite-une-dispute-eclatante-au-sein-du-kern-se-termine-par-une-empoignade-entre-deux-vice-premiers-ministres-de-croo-na-plus-le-controle/


Not long till the government collapses. De Croo Jr has lost all remaining credibility.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Yea i've just read about that as well

Crisisi in federal government is complete after physical conflict between two secretaries

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://www.hln.be/binnenland/kijk-bouchez-krijgt-duw-bij-verkeersruzie-in-knokke-hij-viel-mij-aan-ik-bleef-kalm~a266c94e/?fbclid=IwAR3TUciPYp6Fx3WzjDRImNxXvdzpyfSVhuCWxx39sIOBih0wbFG-qaghvME

Another controversy this time, vids have shown up where MR chairman was involved in a traffic fight. His woman shouted to the Flemish people as "sale flamands" which means "dirty flemish".

[Zinneke]

https://www.hln.be/binnenland/kijk-bouchez-krijgt-duw-bij-verkeersruzie-in-knokke-hij-viel-mij-aan-ik-bleef-kalm~a266c94e/?fbclid=IwAR3TUciPYp6Fx3WzjDRImNxXvdzpyfSVhuCWxx39sIOBih0wbFG-qaghvME

Another controversy this time, vids have shown up where MR chairman was involved in a traffic fight. His woman shouted to the Flemish people as "sale flamands" which means "dirty flemish".

I think more relevant were Magnette's comments directly tackling Bouchez and his attitude and saying no one likes him or wants to govern with him in the future, and that an alternative majority with Les Engagés will be considered.

Anyway Lahbib has been "saved" by the Russia crisis. Because the incompetent Belgian foreign minister who once said Crimea is a part of Russia is definitely busy as a little bee during times like these lol.

[DavidB.]

If the government collapses, will a "rump government" with a minority in parliament stay on until the 2024 election in the way it happened last time, or is there a constitutional possibility for early federal elections?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If the government collapses, will a "rump government" with a minority in parliament stay on until the 2024 election in the way it happened last time, or is there a constitutional possibility for early federal elections?

Both are options, though most will favour the rump government scenario possibly with les engagés replacing MR.

In the past weve had rump governments quite often, during several political crisies, including one just before the covid crisis started (which made clear that we needed a real government at the time).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilm%C3%A8s_I_Government

The Wilmès Government was governing as a caretaker government, until a new cabinet was formed based on the results of the federal elections of 26 May 2019, for which negotiations were still ongoing. Hence the government was a continuation of the centre minority coalition cabinet of Christian Democratic and Flemish (CD&V), the Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats (Open Vld) and the Reformist Movement (MR) which together constituted the Michel II Government. On 16 March, the Wilmès Government was given support by several opposition parties to handle the coronavirus outbreak in Belgium, for which the cabinet is going to be supported by a majority in parliament by granting it special powers under the form of the Wilmès II Government

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%932008_Belgian_government_formation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2%80%932011_Belgian_government_formation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_Belgian_government_formation



This being the cycle of last time.

It took 652 days after the previous one collapsed in December 2018 to form a new government, while we were already the world record holder with 589 days in 2010-2011 before.

Without covid it could've taken longer.

652 days is a lot its basically from Biden swearing in and taking office till the midterms.

There is not really a tradition of snap elections given during these 652 days no snap elections were held. The issue mostly being that centrist parties are afraid of being punished during a snap election and populist parties taking the win, on the left and right.

[Zinneke]

Lahbib has survived somehow. Seems like PS and ECOLO have done a deal with MR whereby the latter concede on some issues like pension and tax reform in order to save her scalp. I don't see any winners from this situation though. N-VA are destroying her and Bouchez (after his partner was caught calling someone a "dirty fleming" too) and in that respect vaporising the weak center-right vivaldi parties in Flanders. ECOLO and PS look incredibly weak to allow their own Ministers to resign while letting Lahbib stay. Bouchez looks like he has lost considerable support and is on his last legs as the lider maximo of MR, they are slowly going to wheel out Wilmes who still, incredibly, is seen as a national unity figure because of her being PM during Covid.

[Zinneke]

Lachaert has resigned as Open VLD leader. He served his function as the "change" to ensure Vivaldi happened, now he is the scapegoat in his party with elections coming up and polling at 8%, even though De Croo is the real problem with his fecklessness.

Time for an N-VA populist clone but more money obsessed to come in.

[Zinneke]

The PS are now re-calling for Lahbib to resign after it emerged two of the Iranian delegation filmed a protest of the diaspora against the officials, and have now intimidated their family back home.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Tom Ongena becomes new interim-chairman of Open VLD. There's lots of criticism because the chairman wasn't elected, but appointed.

https://www.demorgen.be/meningen/open-vld-lijkt-niet-enkel-bang-te-zijn-voor-de-kiezer-maar-ook-voor-de-eigen-leden~b6330005/

This is an opinion of someone who says that Open VLD isn't just scared of elections but even for internal elections and that an old generation that is active in politics for decades needs to be replaced by newer faces.

A petition has been started by some members of VLD, including young VLD to allow elections to take place for chair.

People have stated that at this rate the party might even lose members and support within their own ranks, heading to a historic and embarrassing loss for the liberals.