Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024
DavidB.:
I'd like to have a thread on political developments in my neighbors' country. If I understood correctly, federal elections take place once in five years instead of once in four years since 2014, so the next federal election is scheduled in 2019. There will be municipal and provincial elections in Flanders in October 2018; I don't know about Wallonia.
The current right-wing federal government consists of the Flemish nationalist N-VA, the Flemish liberal Open VLD, the Flemish Christian Democratic CD&V and the Walloon liberal MR. The Flemish government consists of N-VA, CD&V and Open VLD. The Walloon government consists of the social democratic PS and the Christian Democratic cdH.
Assistance by our Belgian posters (Rogier, InsulaDei, Umengus?) is highly appreciated, as my knowledge of Belgian political developments is shockingly limited.
Boston Bread:
What's going on with the PTB/Workers party of Belgium? They're in 2nd in Wallonia in the most recent poll. I imagine CETA is a contributor?
parochial boy:
I've been hoping someone would set up something like this.
How much do the cross-community parties with the same ideology actually collaborate? For example, how much do the PS and the PS.a have to do with each other?
Zinneke:
I was going to wait for France and the NL to blow over because things are relatively stable and boring here. I'll try and post the maps I found when i get back home.
Quote from: New Canadaland on March 25, 2017, 03:27:40 PM
What's going on with the PTB/Workers party of Belgium? They're in 2nd in Wallonia in the most recent poll. I imagine CETA is a contributor?
CETA was opposed by Magnette, the head of the Walloon government and most prominent PS figure after Di Rupo. Most Walloons think Magnette dealt with it well according to the polls. The few who did think he backed down probably switched to PTB.
PTB are 2nd now largely because PS are facing a corruption scandal in Liège that is on a higher scale that their previous one in Charleroi . Because it also has to do with municipalities, and the next elections are municipal, I think a lot of people are saying they are voting PTB to get rid of the corrupt PS in Liège and its surrounding communities (where the PTB have had their first real breakthroughs last election). I firmly expect the marginal people to switch back to the PS when the federal elections happen, but PTB will do better than last time out if they can maintain momentum.
Quote from: parochial boy on March 25, 2017, 05:17:48 PM
I've been hoping someone would set up something like this.
How much do the cross-community parties with the same ideology actually collaborate? For example, how much do the PS and the PS.a have to do with each other?
Since the linguistic split and in particular the split in electoral districts, including Brussel-Hal-Vilvoorde, all of the traditional parties (Christian democrats, Liberals, Socialists) tend to focus on their own electorate and only cooperate when they need to ie over how they should govern my city. They do talk about being largest “family” in the country during election period (usually to boost their score against the N-VA) but other than that they tend to do things separately in terms of campaigning and manifesto pledges.
PS and sp.a for example have had major differences since the 2000s when sp.a turned somewhat to the right (including the a in the name which stands for “differently” in Flemish – you can imagine who they are referring to) and also sp.a voted with all the Flemish parties for the unilateral scission of BHV. But they still call themselves a unified political family and usually negotiate together on the federal level because the Flemish sp.a needs the PS and vice versa. Also sp.a have recently elected a left-winger as their head, John Combrez.
The liberals now tend to be more cooperative and have less differences, especially as they are the largest family in federal government. Since MR (French-speaking liberals) have broken up with the FDF(now Défi) over the latest state reforms, I think the MR have more leeway to find common ground with the Flemish parties in general. I would say Open Vld are still more right-wing on social and communitarian issues than MR though, in order to attract beyond their usual electorate. They refused to enter the 2010-2014 government because of the presence of the greens.
CD&V and Cdh have had policy divergences for years and have currently entered completely different coalition formations. They also still refer to each other as a family on election day but they essentially all but broken up. They are linked by having the same associated trade union in their pillar, the ACV-CVC, and the institutional left-wing of the CD&V is perhaps a little more aligned with Cdh as a result.
Ecolo-groen sit in the same parliamentary group on the federal level and de facto the same party in BXL. The Flemish groen is more left-liberal (especially their leader Calvo) whereas ECOLO have a tendency to try and out-PS the PS in terms of dirigiste left-wing government policy.
PTB-go/PVDA are the same party, as the only major party advocating a unitary Belgium this makes sense. Raoul Hedebouw, their leader, is the only politician I know who debates on both sides of the linguistic divide that isn’t Brussels-based.
Zinneke:
RTBF-La Libre have done a barometer of the politicians. In Flanders, the N-VA's Bart De Wever has taken top spot again with 28%, probably due to his recent rhetoric putting the confederalist idea back on the agenda. Confederalism, for those who are unaware of the concept, is the idea that the regions and communities of Belgium would be able to choose what government competences should be federalise and what should be devolved, rather than the federal government itself. Its been dubbed by the hardcore federalists like Défi and the green parties as "Federalisme pour les cons" (Federalism for dummies). The federalist parties are particularly stringent on preserving social security as a form of Belgian solidarity, which would inevitably be the first competence to fall if the N-VA would achieve confederalism.
Next in line is Theo Francken, also of the N-VA, and Maggie De Block, Open Vld. Both were lucky enough to occupy the most popular ministry in Belgium, the asylum and immigration portfolio. Recently, Francken won a case in the European Court of Justice over his ministry's ability to reject asylum for a Syrian family residing in Lebanon - and he was notoriously quite boastful about it.
Flemish polls are fairly consistent : N-VA up top and the traditional parties a fair bit behind. Vlaams Belang recently have risen in the polls as some are dissatisfied with the lack of communitarian agenda on the federal level. CD&V are the biggest losers though due to their left-wing being undermined by their participation in a heavily right-wing government.
Black is 2014, light blue is December 2016, dark blue is February 2017.
In Brussels, the previously hegemonic PS seem completely at sea and the most popular figures are the PM Charles Michel followed by his internal rival in the liberal MR, Didier Reynders. Third is Olivier Maingain, who split with the MR after the 6th state reform that was agreed with the Flemish parties. Maingain leads a Défi formation that stands for Démocrates Fédéralistes Indépendents, who believe that the current alliance that MR has with the N-VA is the first step towards the eventual failure of the Belgian state. Under its previous identity of FDF, Maingain was notorious for representing the interests of the sizeable francophone minorities situated in the Brussels periphery, under Flemish jurisdiction, including the "ZAFL", 6 municipalities that are believed to be majority francophone and have voted for pro-Brussels mayors. Depending on who you listen to in those parts, Maingain is either the Francophone equivalent of the neo-fascist Vlaams Belang or the saviour of Belgian statehood.
(percentage of francophones in the Brussels periphery)
Brussels polls :
Interesting that third place in Brussels varies according to whether the elector votes on a regional or a federal level (PTB on federal, Défi on regional).
Wallonia's favoured son is still Elio Di Rupo, the president of the PS and ex-prime-minister, who is at 30% favourability in the polls despite mounting pressure over his handling of the Publifin scandal in Liège province. Then comes Charles Michel, whose MR now top the polls, and in third, Raoul Hedebouw, whose PTB is surging to second.
http://www.rtbf.be/info/belgique/detail_popularite-bart-de-wever-charles-michel-et-elio-di-rupo-en-tete?id=9564116
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