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  Spain FPTP simulation
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #50 on: July 28, 2020, 02:27:54 pm »

To state the obvious, quite a big right wing lead thus far.

Yeah agreed. I think this is caused due to 2 reasons:

1) A bit of malapportionment. While the apportionment is actually fairer than that which Spain uses in real life, in real life because Spain uses PR votes are split more evenly. So for example the 2-4 seat provinces in the Castilles in this project are, for the most part, clean sweeps for the right; while in real life the split tends to be 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 or at worst 3-1

2) Wasted votes for the left in Catalonia/Basque Country. While there are still some areas where the right dominates, Spain's political geography means that the right gets only 15% in the Basque Country and 20% in Catalonia, while the left gets much more than that. End result is a ton of wasted votes in those 2 regions.

So even if I went with a purely proportional allocation, issue number 2 still means that the right would have an advantage.

I actually did a prototype of this project which can be defined as "what is Spain was a US state", with all districts having 710k people. Here is the link to it This hypothetical removes the malapportionment though it still has to keep the bad vote distribution.

End result for said project though was:

24 Safe left
2 Lean Left
1 Lean Right
30 Safe Right
2 Lean Nationalist
8 Safe Nationalist

(26-31-10). So a hung parliament with a right wing plurality

For what is worth I expect the right's lead to narrow eventually, though it will still be a big lead and a solid majority.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #51 on: July 28, 2020, 02:39:51 pm »

I would also add that starting from the smallest regions and then working towards the larger ones will present a picture that presently favors the right. Even though the largest area, Madrid, is a right wing stronghold, most of the mid sized areas with left wing presences are only now going to be mapped with larger areas like Seville and Valencia further off.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #52 on: July 29, 2020, 07:06:04 am »

To state the obvious, quite a big right wing lead thus far.

Yeah agreed. I think this is caused due to 2 reasons:

1) A bit of malapportionment. While the apportionment is actually fairer than that which Spain uses in real life, in real life because Spain uses PR votes are split more evenly. So for example the 2-4 seat provinces in the Castilles in this project are, for the most part, clean sweeps for the right; while in real life the split tends to be 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 or at worst 3-1

2) Wasted votes for the left in Catalonia/Basque Country. While there are still some areas where the right dominates, Spain's political geography means that the right gets only 15% in the Basque Country and 20% in Catalonia, while the left gets much more than that. End result is a ton of wasted votes in those 2 regions.

So even if I went with a purely proportional allocation, issue number 2 still means that the right would have an advantage.

I actually did a prototype of this project which can be defined as "what is Spain was a US state", with all districts having 710k people. Here is the link to it This hypothetical removes the malapportionment though it still has to keep the bad vote distribution.

End result for said project though was:

24 Safe left
2 Lean Left
1 Lean Right
30 Safe Right
2 Lean Nationalist
8 Safe Nationalist

(26-31-10). So a hung parliament with a right wing plurality

For what is worth I expect the right's lead to narrow eventually, though it will still be a big lead and a solid majority.

Though of course it can't be assumed that vote distribution would be the same under a FPTP system!
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #53 on: July 29, 2020, 06:54:48 pm »

To state the obvious, quite a big right wing lead thus far.

Yeah agreed. I think this is caused due to 2 reasons:

1) A bit of malapportionment. While the apportionment is actually fairer than that which Spain uses in real life, in real life because Spain uses PR votes are split more evenly. So for example the 2-4 seat provinces in the Castilles in this project are, for the most part, clean sweeps for the right; while in real life the split tends to be 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 or at worst 3-1

2) Wasted votes for the left in Catalonia/Basque Country. While there are still some areas where the right dominates, Spain's political geography means that the right gets only 15% in the Basque Country and 20% in Catalonia, while the left gets much more than that. End result is a ton of wasted votes in those 2 regions.

So even if I went with a purely proportional allocation, issue number 2 still means that the right would have an advantage.

I actually did a prototype of this project which can be defined as "what is Spain was a US state", with all districts having 710k people. Here is the link to it This hypothetical removes the malapportionment though it still has to keep the bad vote distribution.

End result for said project though was:

24 Safe left
2 Lean Left
1 Lean Right
30 Safe Right
2 Lean Nationalist
8 Safe Nationalist

(26-31-10). So a hung parliament with a right wing plurality

For what is worth I expect the right's lead to narrow eventually, though it will still be a big lead and a solid majority.

Though of course it can't be assumed that vote distribution would be the same under a FPTP system!

Yeah, I would obviously expect a lot of changes in the behaviour of people if Spain developed FPTP and a firm 2 party system, though I suppose this would be a bit closer to reality if done in 2008 somehow.

I would also expect quite a bit of tactical voting, particularly among right wing unionists in Catalonia/Basque Country, who would hold the balance of power in many seats. Quite a few nationalist and left wing seats will be won with pluralities (and the right does not really have any chances at a seat in either of those 2 regions. At best they might just barely win one in the rich parts of Barcelona but even that is a stretch)

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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #54 on: July 29, 2020, 07:09:07 pm »

Speaking of which, here is the next province, and it is again a nationalist leaning province

Guipúzcoa (6 seats, 120k people/seat)



Irún: This is the northwestern district, right at the border with France. The Irun area has traditionally been one of the more unionist parts of the Basque Country and especially of the province of Guipúzcoa. However, much like the rest of the region, it has been trending towards nationalism. Since this district is just composed of a hanful of municipalities, I was able to calculate a proper result here, which is basically 47% Nationalist, 41% left, 12% right. Therefore this just narrowly makes the cut for being a safe nationalist seat by the criteria I've been using but let's not kid ourselves, this would be extremely competitive
Safe Nationalist

San Sebastián Este y Rentería / Donostiako Ekialdean eta Errenteria: This district takes in the town of Rentería, which is also a traditional unionist stronghold, as well as the eastern third of the provincial capital of San Sebastián/Donostia and the small nearby town of Astigarraga. This third of the provincial capital is the more unionist and left wing one, and combined with Rentería this actually makes for a district that voted for the left. However, Rentería is not what it used to be and downtown San Sebastian is actually quite heavily nationalist so the margin here must have been ridiculously close, though this must have been safer in the past
Lean left

San Sebastián Oeste / Donostiako Mendebaldea: This meanwhile takes in the western 2/3rds of San Sebastián. And this is the more nationalist part of town, with PNV sweeping most precincts here. This is also the more right wing part of town, particularly in downtown where PP gets second in many precincts. Anyways, this is clearly safe for the nationalists
Safe nationalist

Urola Kosta: West of San Sebastián, this was basically my rural leftovers district. Anyways this basically goes along the coast and takes some interior towns as well. Being this is the rural Basque Country, this is very much nationalist territory
Safe Nationalist

Tolosaldea - Goierri: This takes in the comarcas of Tolosaldea and Goierri. And really, this is peak Bildu and peak Basque separatist land. Most areas in here voted for Bildu by quite heavy margins. Of course as you might expect PNV came in 2nd pretty much everywhere here as well (except in some municipalities in the west where PNV won and Bildu got 2nd). Either way it does not matter which of the 2 nationalists won, combined they win in a landslide
Safe Nationalist

Cuenca del Deva / Deva Arroa: This very elongated district takes in the comarcas of Alto Deva and Bajo Deva. As you may expect this really just follows the course of the Deva river and takes all the towns near it. Again, nationalists won here in a landslide when combined
Safe Nationalist

Totals
13 Safe Left
12 Lean Left
9 Lean Right
55 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
10 Safe Nationalist
(25-64-11)

In other news, this update means we finally have 100 districts in! Only 250 to go! Tongue
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #55 on: July 31, 2020, 10:43:12 am »

Yet another nationalist province, this time it is Puigdemont's home province of Girona. Harder than usual to draw and has a district that is truly nothing but leftovers but still not bad.

Girona (6 seats, 128k people/seat)



Pirineu de Girona: This is the northwestern district in the Pyrinees, along the border with France. Other than the elongated shape not much to say here, this is rural Catalonia, peak nationalist turf (Girona is arguably the most Catalan secessionist province)
Safe Nationalist

Alt Empordà: This is the northeastern district, again bordering France but on the coast, and taking pretty much the entire Alt Empordà comarca. There are some interesting towns here and this is a nice part of Catalonia, but politically it's still very nationalist and very boring
Safe Nationalist

Baix Empordà: This is just south of the Alt Empordà district, and is the middle coastal district. Very similar to the previous district, and it takes the comarca of Baix Empordà. Not much else to say here, again nationalist turf
Safe nationalist

Girona: This district comprises the provincial capital of Girona, and the nearby "suburb"/commuter town of Salt which is pretty much integrated with it. This is Puigdemont's home town as well as the city where he was the long time mayor of. In any case, of the 4 provincial capitals Girona is the most pro-secession one, which means this district is still safe for the nationalists (although a bit more closer than the other 3)
Safe Nationalist

Selva Nord - Gironès: This is the district that surrounds the Girona district. And basically, this is just a leftovers district that cleans everything that was not put into a coherent district. Anyways, this is still a rural Catalonia district so you can guess how it votes
Safe Nationalist

Selva Sud: Finally a district that is minimally interesting as this time at least we have some unionist base somewhere. In this case, we have it in the 2 tourist towns of Blanes and Lloret de Mar (in general, super touristy beach areas in Catalonia lean unionist). These 2 towns actually account for 59% of the district, but they are outvoted by the uber nationalist rural areas. Still, this should easily be the most competitive district but it is probably not enough for this to flip or even to get to lean territory
Safe Nationalist

Totals
13 Safe Left
12 Lean Left
9 Lean Right
55 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
16 Safe Nationalist
(25-64-17)
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #56 on: August 02, 2020, 02:43:00 pm »

The next province is the province of Córdoba in southern Spain. This was fairly straightforward to draw, though I fear that the results won't be clear so I have added an inset of Córdoba city

Córdoba (6 seats, 130k people/seat)





Valles del Alto Guadalquivir: This is the northernmost district, taking in the upper Guadalquivir area as well as the valleys of some of its tributaries. This is rural Andalucia and an agricultural district centered just south of Sierra Morena. However this being the northernmost district the results for the left are less stellar than you might expect (the western part of this district leans right, the eastern one leans left). In any case the left won this but it was close
Lean left

Afueras de Córdoba y Medio Guadalquivir: The 2nd of the 4 rural districts, this was my leftovers district. This takes in the areas a bit further downstream and much of the Guadalquivir river valley in this area, with the exception of most of Córdoba city. This district does however take a small part of Córdoba city which happens to be left leaning (most of Córdoba is conservative) and the rural areas here are the most left wing in the province. So the result here is obvious
Safe left

Córdoba-Oeste: This takes the western 40% of Córdoba city, which happens to be the most conservative parts of town. With the exception of a couple precincts this is uniformly deep blue territory and very conservative. The right definitely broke 60% here
Safe Right

Córdoba - Este: Conversely, this takes the eastern 40% of Córdoba city. This happens to take many left wing and competitive areas, particularly in the eastern part of the district where the left wins. However it gets outvoted by the narrowly right wing middle and especially the very conservative western parts of the district, so the right won here, but the margin must have been narrow
Lean Right

Campiña Cordobesa: Centered around the 2 "Campiña" provinces, which are agricultural in nature, the 3rd of the 4 rural districts, this district is almost uniformly left wing and by quite decent margins as well. This is rural Andalucia so this is not a surprise but still
Safe Left

Subbética: The southernmost district, taking in only the comarca of Subbética. Now, if you wanted a surprise, here it is. Despite all odds for a rural Andalusian district, this district is actually a rural district that is safe for the right? It is not exactly overwhelmingly right but it certainly won here by at least low double digits. This was certainly an interesting result to say the least
Safe Right

Totals
15 Safe Left
13 Lean Left
10 Lean Right
57 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
16 Safe Nationalist
(28-67-17)
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #57 on: August 02, 2020, 03:21:56 pm »

Wow!
This project is extremely interesting.

It reminds me of something I did between last year and this year where I calculated the result of the 2019 European election in Italy by parliamentary first-past-the-post constituency.
It was a freaking lot of work (some constituencies occupy close to 100 municipalities) and I could not have exact results for constituencies that split big cities, but I am very proud of it.
And now I am starting to make maps out of it.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #58 on: August 02, 2020, 05:09:45 pm »

The next province is the province of Córdoba in southern Spain. This was fairly straightforward to draw, though I fear that the results won't be clear so I have added an inset of Córdoba city

Córdoba (6 seats, 130k people/seat)





Valles del Alto Guadalquivir: This is the northernmost district, taking in the upper Guadalquivir area as well as the valleys of some of its tributaries. This is rural Andalucia and an agricultural district centered just south of Sierra Morena. However this being the northernmost district the results for the left are less stellar than you might expect (the western part of this district leans right, the eastern one leans left). In any case the left won this but it was close
Lean left

Afueras de Córdoba y Medio Guadalquivir: The 2nd of the 4 rural districts, this was my leftovers district. This takes in the areas a bit further downstream and much of the Guadalquivir river valley in this area, with the exception of most of Córdoba city. This district does however take a small part of Córdoba city which happens to be left leaning (most of Córdoba is conservative) and the rural areas here are the most left wing in the province. So the result here is obvious
Safe left

Córdoba-Oeste: This takes the western 40% of Córdoba city, which happens to be the most conservative parts of town. With the exception of a couple precincts this is uniformly deep blue territory and very conservative. The right definitely broke 60% here
Safe Right

Córdoba - Este: Conversely, this takes the eastern 40% of Córdoba city. This happens to take many left wing and competitive areas, particularly in the eastern part of the district where the left wins. However it gets outvoted by the narrowly right wing middle and especially the very conservative western parts of the district, so the right won here, but the margin must have been narrow
Lean Right

Campiña Cordobesa: Centered around the 2 "Campiña" provinces, which are agricultural in nature, the 3rd of the 4 rural districts, this district is almost uniformly left wing and by quite decent margins as well. This is rural Andalucia so this is not a surprise but still
Safe Left

Subbética: The southernmost district, taking in only the comarca of Subbética. Now, if you wanted a surprise, here it is. Despite all odds for a rural Andalusian district, this district is actually a rural district that is safe for the right? It is not exactly overwhelmingly right but it certainly won here by at least low double digits. This was certainly an interesting result to say the least
Safe Right

Totals
15 Safe Left
13 Lean Left
10 Lean Right
57 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
16 Safe Nationalist
(28-67-17)
Why has the Red Cordoba died?
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #59 on: August 02, 2020, 05:20:29 pm »


Córdoba, much like the rest of Andalucia, has been trending to the right for quite a while now for a variety of reasons, and this trend has accelerated in the past few years, mostly due to the Catalan issue.

Though indeed Cordoba for the longest time was an IU stronghold, especially in the times of the "Red Caliph", Julio Anguita, who was mayor of the city in the 80s.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #60 on: August 03, 2020, 12:28:08 am »


Córdoba, much like the rest of Andalucia, has been trending to the right for quite a while now for a variety of reasons, and this trend has accelerated in the past few years, mostly due to the Catalan issue.

Though indeed Cordoba for the longest time was an IU stronghold, especially in the times of the "Red Caliph", Julio Anguita, who was mayor of the city in the 80s.

So urban Andalucians are mad as hell at Catalans? It sounds... weird.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #61 on: August 03, 2020, 06:15:38 am »

The usual "nationalist" culture war stuff, innit?
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #62 on: August 04, 2020, 08:10:00 pm »

Speaking of the Catalans, the next province is actually located there Tongue Also the last 6 seater province. This was relatively hard to draw and I had to eyeball 2 rural districts

Tarragona (6 seats, 135k people/seat)



Delta d'Ebre: This is the southernmost district, centered around the Ebro river delta. This is a natural protection area, but also an agricultural area. As you may expect from rural Catalonia, this is safe for the nationalists. Though I will say that this is probably the only area of rural Catalonia that is really "Ancestrally ERC", instead of "Ancestrally CiU". ERC has always performed really well here
Safe Nationalist

Baix Camp - Rivera d'Ebre: This was one of my 2 rural leftovers districts, this one taking the coastal areas south of Reus and then just sprawling inland. The coastal areas are a bit more competitive and their economy is based on tourism. Still, this is safe for the nationalists as even those coastal areas, with the exception of Salou (home to Port Aventura theme park, which I think is the biggest in all of Spain), get outvoted by the rurals
Safe Nationalist

Alt Camp - Tarragonès: This was the 2nd rural leftovers district, taking this time the rural comarcas of Alt Camp and Conca de Barberà, as well as the "suburbs/exurbs" of the Tarragona-Reus area and the rural inland bits of the Baix Camp area. Basically the northern rural district. You can see why this was a bit eyeballed Tongue Anyways again this is rural Catalonia so this is secessionist territory
Safe Nationalist

Reus: This takes in the town of Reus, as well as taking 2 nearby towns (Vila-seca and La Canoja). Reus is one of the 2 "nucleus" that form the Tarragona-Reus metropolitan area (this is the usual case of 2 cities growing and ending up merging or at least interacting heavily). Reus is the more nationalist of the 2 it seems as well as a tiny bit smaller and being inland. Anyways I was able to calculate a full result for this and it was a close battle, with nationalists getting 38%, the left getting 34% and the right getting 27%.
Lean Nationalist

Tarragona: This district is simple and it just takes the town of Tarragona, the slightly bigger of the 2 towns forming the contiguous metropolitan area as well as the provincial capital. Tarragona seems to be slightly more unionist though the difference is small. Still, in a close election it matters and a lot, as this was essencially a 3 way tossup! It ended up falling for the left by the narrowest of margins: 35% Left, 34% nationalist, 29% Right. So yeah, very competitive indeed
Lean left

Baix Penedès: In an incredibly surprising twist for rural Catalonia, this district, taking in the Baix Penedès area and some towns and suburbs of Tarragona actually votes for the left! For some reason, in the area near the border with Barcelona there is quite a bit of left wing strength that I can't really explain (this is too far to function as a Barcelona suburb and the towns actually across the border are secessionist). I suppose the coastal tourist towns here outvote the secessionist inland? (though like I said this does not explain the tiny pocket of rural unionist strength). The Penedès area is also known for its wine though the rural bits are secessionist so I have nothing here. Worth noting that the margin is far from overwhelming, but it's still a left wing district; the most left-unionist in the province in fact (though not necesarily the most unionist, I think Tarragona still takes that title)
Lean left

Totals
15 Safe Left
15 Lean Left
10 Lean Right
57 Safe Right
2 Lean Nationalist
19 Safe Nationalist
(30-67-21)
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