2024 Alberta NDP leadership election
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Benjamin Frank 2.0
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« Reply #50 on: February 20, 2024, 01:05:42 PM »

David Climenhaga more or less confirms what I said about the Alberta NDP trying to split from the Federal NDP.

"To make matters worse, disaffiliation would probably require the federal NDP to change its constitution"

The rest of the article throws more cold water on the idea. Worth a read.
https://rabble.ca/general/splitting-the-alberta-ndp-from-the-federal-party-is-a-bad-idea/
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Njall
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« Reply #51 on: February 23, 2024, 08:31:17 AM »

Edmonton-Rutherford MLA Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse appears set to enter the race tomorrow.
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Benjamin Frank 2.0
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« Reply #52 on: February 26, 2024, 12:36:47 PM »

It seems Gil McGowan actually is going to run.

Mr. McGowan, 56, made his intention to run clear in a series of direct social media messages to potential supporters the same day, saying “I haven’t officially announced yet, but I’m going to join the NDP leadership race. I think it’s time we have a worker leader leading the workers’ party.”

https://albertapolitics.ca/2024/02/edmonton-rutherford-mla-jodi-calihoo-stonehouse-and-afl-president-gil-mcgowan-join-ndp-leadership-race/

When was the last time a union leader ran for the leadership of the NDP other than in the Atlantic or Quebec where the NDP hadn't been competitive at the time?
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DL
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« Reply #53 on: February 26, 2024, 01:05:36 PM »

It seems Gil McGowan actually is going to run.

Mr. McGowan, 56, made his intention to run clear in a series of direct social media messages to potential supporters the same day, saying “I haven’t officially announced yet, but I’m going to join the NDP leadership race. I think it’s time we have a worker leader leading the workers’ party.”

https://albertapolitics.ca/2024/02/edmonton-rutherford-mla-jodi-calihoo-stonehouse-and-afl-president-gil-mcgowan-join-ndp-leadership-race/

When was the last time a union leader ran for the leadership of the NDP other than in the Atlantic or Quebec where the NDP hadn't been competitive at the time?

Gary Doer had previously been head of the Manitoba Government Employees Union
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Benjamin Frank 2.0
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« Reply #54 on: February 26, 2024, 01:15:35 PM »

It seems Gil McGowan actually is going to run.

Mr. McGowan, 56, made his intention to run clear in a series of direct social media messages to potential supporters the same day, saying “I haven’t officially announced yet, but I’m going to join the NDP leadership race. I think it’s time we have a worker leader leading the workers’ party.”

https://albertapolitics.ca/2024/02/edmonton-rutherford-mla-jodi-calihoo-stonehouse-and-afl-president-gil-mcgowan-join-ndp-leadership-race/

When was the last time a union leader ran for the leadership of the NDP other than in the Atlantic or Quebec where the NDP hadn't been competitive at the time?

Gary Doer had previously been head of the Manitoba Government Employees Union

Very good point, but he had been elected as an MLA in 1986 and was a senior cabinet minister (regarded as the 'minister for everything' though I'm surprised he wasn't referred to as 'the fixer' instead.)

In Saskatchewan, Woodrow Lloyd who was Premier from 1961-1964 had been a longtime MLA and cabinet minister had been the head of the Saskatchewan teachers' union before that. To be sure, I think the party in Saskatchewan kept the name CCF for a bit longer than federally.

Marit Stiles in Ontario was also a union director (ACTRA) prior to getting elected as an MPP and Rachel Notley had been a union official as well, though the NDP was hardly a competitive party at the time she took over the leadership (except for parts of Edmonton.)
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Njall
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« Reply #55 on: March 05, 2024, 06:04:18 PM »

Nenshi is expected to enter the race next Tuesday (March 11th).
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Benjamin Frank 2.0
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« Reply #56 on: March 05, 2024, 06:58:28 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2024, 07:02:57 PM by Benjamin Frank 2.0 »

As the organizer for the procrastinist union, I hope to announce my candidacy on March 13.  Tongue
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Benjamin Frank 2.0
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« Reply #57 on: March 11, 2024, 02:40:34 PM »

Nenshi is running.

Braid: Ex-Mayor Nenshi joins NDP race; slams Smith's 'playground fights'
Former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi offers himself as the outsider who can build a broad coalition to defeat the UCP and defend core values of tolerance and inclusion.
https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/don-braid-naheed-nenshi-joins-alberta-ndp-leadership-race
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #58 on: March 11, 2024, 02:50:32 PM »

His video is interesting. Uses orange and his personal brand of purple interchangeably. It also had a Tommy Douglas quote.

I think he will win quite easily. Will be interesting to see what happens with the caucus, none of whom support him (yet).
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DL
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« Reply #59 on: March 11, 2024, 05:15:57 PM »
« Edited: March 12, 2024, 08:47:17 AM by DL »

His video is interesting. Uses orange and his personal brand of purple interchangeably. It also had a Tommy Douglas quote.

I think he will win quite easily. Will be interesting to see what happens with the caucus, none of whom support him (yet).

Actually, at least one MLA supports him. Court Ellingson from Calgary is his campaign co-chair...also another Calgary MLA Kamir Kayande has endorsed him too
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #60 on: March 12, 2024, 10:48:06 AM »

His video is interesting. Uses orange and his personal brand of purple interchangeably. It also had a Tommy Douglas quote.

I think he will win quite easily. Will be interesting to see what happens with the caucus, none of whom support him (yet).

Actually, at least one MLA supports him. Court Ellingson from Calgary is his campaign co-chair...also another Calgary MLA Kamir Kayande has endorsed him too

Yup, and Calgary City Councillor (and 2022 NDP candidate) Druh Farrell also endorsed him. Great to see he's got a bit of caucus support.
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Benjamin Frank 2.0
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« Reply #61 on: March 12, 2024, 06:17:04 PM »

His video is interesting. Uses orange and his personal brand of purple interchangeably. It also had a Tommy Douglas quote.

I think he will win quite easily. Will be interesting to see what happens with the caucus, none of whom support him (yet).

Actually, at least one MLA supports him. Court Ellingson from Calgary is his campaign co-chair...also another Calgary MLA Kamir Kayande has endorsed him too

Samir Kayande. Very smart person. He was appointed the associate finance critic right after being elected. He was mentioned as a possible candidate himself.
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Njall
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« Reply #62 on: March 14, 2024, 05:49:07 PM »

His video is interesting. Uses orange and his personal brand of purple interchangeably. It also had a Tommy Douglas quote.

I think he will win quite easily. Will be interesting to see what happens with the caucus, none of whom support him (yet).

Actually, at least one MLA supports him. Court Ellingson from Calgary is his campaign co-chair...also another Calgary MLA Kamir Kayande has endorsed him too

Samir Kayande. Very smart person. He was appointed the associate finance critic right after being elected. He was mentioned as a possible candidate himself.

Looks like Nenshi's also gotten endorsements from Calgary-Falconridge MLA Parmeet Singh Boparai and Edmonton-Ellersie MLA Rod Loyola. The endorsement from Boparai isn't very surprising (he's actually Nenshi's MLA). The Loyola endorsement is something I wasn't expecting though, given his history. For those who don't remember, Loyola was the Gil McGowan-esque labour candidate in the 2014 leadership election (when he was President of the non-academic staff union at the University of Alberta). It's also decently well-known in the Edmonton political scene that he's historically had Communist Party and/or Marxist-Leninist Party ties in his pre-MLA days. For instance, I found this archived page from the Marxist-Leninist Party's website from 2013 that has him listed as the organizer of an Edmonton vigil for Hugo Chavez (at the bottom of the page).
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #63 on: March 18, 2024, 09:05:47 AM »

Jann Arden has also endorsed Nenshi.
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Benjamin Frank 2.0
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« Reply #64 on: March 18, 2024, 06:44:35 PM »

Jann Arden has also endorsed Nenshi.

I'll be impressed if Corb Lund endorses Nenshi.
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Njall
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« Reply #65 on: March 26, 2024, 09:28:30 AM »

Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Rakhi Pancholi is dropping out of the race and throwing her support behind Nenshi. According to Globe reporter Emma Graney, this followed the first update to leadership candidates on membership numbers since Nenshi entered the race, which showed that party membership had doubled in a single week.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #66 on: March 26, 2024, 03:34:56 PM »

It's not even going to be close
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mileslunn
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« Reply #67 on: March 26, 2024, 03:44:16 PM »

I think Nenshi will win leadership.  How he does in general election harder to say, but I actually think he has a 40-50% chance of winning next election.  Smith has a tendency to do stupid things and I also think if Poilievre is PM, people will be more open to having a centre-left premier to balance things out.  I actually think had O'Toole won in 2021, Notley would have won in 2023.  I believe Trudeau's unpopularity in Alberta is biggest thing keeping UCP in power.  Heck even Ford I think would be doing worse in polls if Tories in power in Ottawa.  Alberta may not have history of voting opposites like Ontario but this trend is not unique to Canada.  You see it in many other jurisdictions where subnational or in case of EU, European where opposite party of who is in power often win in those.  US usually that way and 2022 midterms somewhat unusual in GOP failing to pick up states as usually opposite party of one holding white house does. 

Its not so much people voting opposite is more if Poilievre is in office, the sovereignty act, need to stand up to feds would have as much appeal as it does now.  Never mind Poilievre probably does seem things that will be unpopular even in Alberta.  Austerity is not popular anywhere including Alberta so NDP can easily make argument that they will invest not cut like UCP and federal Tories while won't have to worry about carbon tax as that will be gone.
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Benjamin Frank 2.0
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« Reply #68 on: March 26, 2024, 03:47:17 PM »

Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Rakhi Pancholi is dropping out of the race and throwing her support behind Nenshi. According to Globe reporter Emma Graney, this followed the first update to leadership candidates on membership numbers since Nenshi entered the race, which showed that party membership had doubled in a single week.

Membership has doubled in a single week? Awesome Ganleymentum!

I guess Pancholi dropped out of the race to support Nenshi because her campaign got off to a Rakhi start.
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Benjamin Frank 2.0
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« Reply #69 on: March 26, 2024, 03:54:52 PM »

I think Nenshi will win leadership.  How he does in general election harder to say, but I actually think he has a 40-50% chance of winning next election.  Smith has a tendency to do stupid things and I also think if Poilievre is PM, people will be more open to having a centre-left premier to balance things out.  I actually think had O'Toole won in 2021, Notley would have won in 2023.  I believe Trudeau's unpopularity in Alberta is biggest thing keeping UCP in power.  Heck even Ford I think would be doing worse in polls if Tories in power in Ottawa.  Alberta may not have history of voting opposites like Ontario but this trend is not unique to Canada.  You see it in many other jurisdictions where subnational or in case of EU, European where opposite party of who is in power often win in those.  US usually that way and 2022 midterms somewhat unusual in GOP failing to pick up states as usually opposite party of one holding white house does. 

Its not so much people voting opposite is more if Poilievre is in office, the sovereignty act, need to stand up to feds would have as much appeal as it does now.  Never mind Poilievre probably does seem things that will be unpopular even in Alberta.  Austerity is not popular anywhere including Alberta so NDP can easily make argument that they will invest not cut like UCP and federal Tories while won't have to worry about carbon tax as that will be gone.

I actually don't agree with Ontario. Ford is quite chummy with Justin Trudeau to the benefit of Ford if no longer Trudeau and has shifted largely to the 'mushy middle' to be around where Trudeau is (at least more in line with more centrist Liberals.)

Finally, the Federal Conservatives and Ford don't seem to like each other very much as the Poilievre Conservatives, especially their recent by-election winner, seem to have a great dislike for Education Minister Stephen Lecce.

I especially don't understand that as Lecce was once a senior staffer for Stephen Harper.

If, as you seem to assume here given your comments about the UCP being hurt by a Federal Conservative Party government (presumably becoming unpopular) I think Ford/Poilievre have established enough distance already that Ford would probably benefit from that.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #70 on: March 26, 2024, 03:58:56 PM »

I think Nenshi will win leadership.  How he does in general election harder to say, but I actually think he has a 40-50% chance of winning next election.  Smith has a tendency to do stupid things and I also think if Poilievre is PM, people will be more open to having a centre-left premier to balance things out.  I actually think had O'Toole won in 2021, Notley would have won in 2023.  I believe Trudeau's unpopularity in Alberta is biggest thing keeping UCP in power.  Heck even Ford I think would be doing worse in polls if Tories in power in Ottawa.  Alberta may not have history of voting opposites like Ontario but this trend is not unique to Canada.  You see it in many other jurisdictions where subnational or in case of EU, European where opposite party of who is in power often win in those.  US usually that way and 2022 midterms somewhat unusual in GOP failing to pick up states as usually opposite party of one holding white house does. 

Its not so much people voting opposite is more if Poilievre is in office, the sovereignty act, need to stand up to feds would have as much appeal as it does now.  Never mind Poilievre probably does seem things that will be unpopular even in Alberta.  Austerity is not popular anywhere including Alberta so NDP can easily make argument that they will invest not cut like UCP and federal Tories while won't have to worry about carbon tax as that will be gone.

I actually don't agree with Ontario. Ford is quite chummy with Justin Trudeau to the benefit of Ford if no longer Trudeau and has shifted largely to the 'mushy middle' to be around where Trudeau is (at least more in line with more centrist Liberals.)

Finally, the Federal Conservatives and Ford don't seem to like each other very much as the Poilievre Conservatives, especially their recent by-election winner, seem to have a great dislike for Education Minister Stephen Lecce.

I especially don't understand that as Lecce was once a senior staffer for Stephen Harper.

If, as you seem to assume here given your comments about the UCP being hurt by a Federal Conservative Party government (presumably becoming unpopular) I think Ford/Poilievre have established enough distance already that Ford would probably benefit from that.

Good point.  Also I think Ford knows history of Ontario voting opposites.  But going back to Alberta, I think Poilievre being PM helps NDP as Smith won't have Trudeau as whipping boy.  Whether enough or not is hard to say.  Biggest challenge for NDP is UCP's near lock on rural ridings so they need to run the table in Calgary.  Narrowly winning Calgary as did in 2023 isn't enough.  But if can win 20 of 26 seats that may be enough but just barely.  So they have more paths, whomever wins should aggressively target the two Red Deer seats, other Lethbridge and donut around Edmonton.  That gives them a bit more breathing room as I have found in elections if you have a very narrow path, almost always lose as never win every riding you wish.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #71 on: March 26, 2024, 04:49:56 PM »

I think Nenshi will win leadership.  How he does in general election harder to say, but I actually think he has a 40-50% chance of winning next election.  Smith has a tendency to do stupid things and I also think if Poilievre is PM, people will be more open to having a centre-left premier to balance things out.  I actually think had O'Toole won in 2021, Notley would have won in 2023.  I believe Trudeau's unpopularity in Alberta is biggest thing keeping UCP in power.  Heck even Ford I think would be doing worse in polls if Tories in power in Ottawa.  Alberta may not have history of voting opposites like Ontario but this trend is not unique to Canada.  You see it in many other jurisdictions where subnational or in case of EU, European where opposite party of who is in power often win in those.  US usually that way and 2022 midterms somewhat unusual in GOP failing to pick up states as usually opposite party of one holding white house does. 

Its not so much people voting opposite is more if Poilievre is in office, the sovereignty act, need to stand up to feds would have as much appeal as it does now.  Never mind Poilievre probably does seem things that will be unpopular even in Alberta.  Austerity is not popular anywhere including Alberta so NDP can easily make argument that they will invest not cut like UCP and federal Tories while won't have to worry about carbon tax as that will be gone.

I actually don't agree with Ontario. Ford is quite chummy with Justin Trudeau to the benefit of Ford if no longer Trudeau and has shifted largely to the 'mushy middle' to be around where Trudeau is (at least more in line with more centrist Liberals.)

Finally, the Federal Conservatives and Ford don't seem to like each other very much as the Poilievre Conservatives, especially their recent by-election winner, seem to have a great dislike for Education Minister Stephen Lecce.

I especially don't understand that as Lecce was once a senior staffer for Stephen Harper.

If, as you seem to assume here given your comments about the UCP being hurt by a Federal Conservative Party government (presumably becoming unpopular) I think Ford/Poilievre have established enough distance already that Ford would probably benefit from that.

Good point.  Also I think Ford knows history of Ontario voting opposites.  But going back to Alberta, I think Poilievre being PM helps NDP as Smith won't have Trudeau as whipping boy.  Whether enough or not is hard to say.  Biggest challenge for NDP is UCP's near lock on rural ridings so they need to run the table in Calgary.  Narrowly winning Calgary as did in 2023 isn't enough.  But if can win 20 of 26 seats that may be enough but just barely.  So they have more paths, whomever wins should aggressively target the two Red Deer seats, other Lethbridge and donut around Edmonton.  That gives them a bit more breathing room as I have found in elections if you have a very narrow path, almost always lose as never win every riding you wish.

That may be a bit easier, as Alberta should get a new electoral map before next election.
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Benjamin Frank 2.0
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« Reply #72 on: March 27, 2024, 03:57:59 PM »

Former Calgary Liberal MLA Harry Chase has endorsed Kathleen Ganley. This leadership race will clearly not go beyond one ballot.
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DL
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« Reply #73 on: March 27, 2024, 05:52:11 PM »


That may be a bit easier, as Alberta should get a new electoral map before next election.

I'm not sure about that - the current map is very new and was passed just before the 2019 election.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #74 on: March 27, 2024, 06:31:27 PM »


That may be a bit easier, as Alberta should get a new electoral map before next election.

I'm not sure about that - the current map is very new and was passed just before the 2019 election.

They get a new map every 2 elections. Elections Alberta says there should be a new redistribution commission appointed as early as this year.
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