|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2020, 02:40:11 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared  (Read 1698 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,116
Ukraine


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 12, 2017, 02:54:10 pm »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/purple-america-has-all-but-disappeared/

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.







-

Not that this trend hasn't been noticed before, but sometimes graphs/maps like those can really put it in a whole new light.

One has to wonder what this means for the future of American politics. This level of polarization hasn't been seen in at least over a hundred years, and even back then, considering the lack of relevant data, the levels we are experiencing today might be the worst in American history for all we know.
Logged
diptheriadan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,441


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2017, 02:56:59 pm »

I think it's a tad disingenuous that they used county maps of 1992 and 1996 to compare to modern elections.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,116
Ukraine


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2017, 03:18:13 pm »

I think it's a tad disingenuous that they used county maps of 1992 and 1996 to compare to modern elections.

Uhh.. what? They are showing a trend, and used maps for every presidential election since then.
Logged
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 51,453
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2017, 12:06:57 am »

Yup, pretty much confirms what we already knew.

Something has gone terribly wrong.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,356
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2017, 01:21:53 am »

2000 to 2008 dosent seem to change all that much tbh. It's not until the gerrymandering kicked in after 2008 did we see such extreme polarization.

These are county maps, not CD maps.  So how would it be impacted by gerrymandering?  The county boundaries don't change from one decade to the next.
Logged
Reaganfan
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2017, 05:52:06 am »

White America fled to the GOP. That's what those maps show. With the exception of Bill Clinton (Who ran as a "centrist Democrat" for welfare reform and received FOP police endorsements for his tough on crime stances) most of the white electorate has been Reagan's America for nearly 40 years.
Logged
Blue3
Starwatcher
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,942
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2017, 02:50:58 pm »

Now I'd be interested to see a map on all the other counties... probably be easier to read!

2000 to 2008 dosent seem to change all that much tbh. It's not until the gerrymandering kicked in after 2008 did we see such extreme polarization.

These are county maps, not CD maps.  So how would it be impacted by gerrymandering?  The county boundaries don't change from one decade to the next.

This isn't about gerrymandering.
Logged
Irene did nothing wrong
scutosaurus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,650
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.19, S: -6.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2017, 07:26:00 pm »

2000 to 2008 dosent seem to change all that much tbh. It's not until the gerrymandering kicked in after 2008 did we see such extreme polarization.

These are county maps, not CD maps.  So how would it be impacted by gerrymandering?  The county boundaries don't change from one decade to the next.


Gerrymandering contributes to polorazation
In congressional districts, not in counties. Counties aren't gerrymandered.
Logged
Blue3
Starwatcher
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,942
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2017, 07:53:26 pm »

2000 to 2008 dosent seem to change all that much tbh. It's not until the gerrymandering kicked in after 2008 did we see such extreme polarization.

These are county maps, not CD maps.  So how would it be impacted by gerrymandering?  The county boundaries don't change from one decade to the next.


Gerrymandering contributes to polorazation
In congressional districts, not in counties. Counties aren't gerrymandered.
He's saying that living in gerrymandered districts makes people become MORE polarized than they were previously.



But overall, I say this article is not about gerrymandering.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,356
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2017, 08:05:42 pm »

2000 to 2008 dosent seem to change all that much tbh. It's not until the gerrymandering kicked in after 2008 did we see such extreme polarization.

These are county maps, not CD maps.  So how would it be impacted by gerrymandering?  The county boundaries don't change from one decade to the next.


Gerrymandering contributes to polorazation
In congressional districts, not in counties. Counties aren't gerrymandered.
He's saying that living in gerrymandered districts makes people become MORE polarized than they were previously.

That seems silly.  Living in a heavily Republican district or a heavily Democratic district is going to make people vote for a different presidential candidate than they would if they lived at the exact same address but their CD boundary lines were drawn differently, so that their CD was more competitive?  Why would that be the case, especially when (aside from ME and NE) presidential electoral votes are allocated at the state level?  For how many voters does the identity of their local member of Congress even enter their mind when they're voting for president?
Logged
MB
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,235
Chad



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2017, 08:31:44 pm »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/purple-america-has-all-but-disappeared/

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.







-

Not that this trend hasn't been noticed before, but sometimes graphs/maps like those can really put it in a whole new light.

One has to wonder what this means for the future of American politics. This level of polarization hasn't been seen in at least over a hundred years, and even back then, considering the lack of relevant data, the levels we are experiencing today might be the worst in American history for all we know.
No surprise. What about the Solid South? Democrats were elected with 90%+ for 100 years.

Also, this article is misleading because it fails to mention Perot's campaigns in 1992 and 96, which took away voters from both parties.
Logged
MarkD
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,225
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2017, 10:47:21 pm »
« Edited: March 19, 2017, 11:47:59 am by MarkD »

Gerrymandering of congressional districts does not explain why the U. S. Senate has also become just as polarized as the U. S. House. In both chambers, the political species known as "liberal Republicans" and "conservative Democrats" have become extinct, and the numbers of moderates in both parties is also shrinking. The increased polarization of politics within Congress over the past 40 years is commensurate with the increased polarization of the voters as reflected in these maps.
Logged
Nyvin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,865
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2017, 03:49:31 pm »

The maps more or less visualize the growing gaps between two different political rivalries:

1.  White vs Non-White

2.  Urban vs Rural
Logged
Shameless Bernie Hack
Chickenhawk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,162


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2017, 04:35:21 pm »

I wonder how the polarization of rural counties trends with population growth/decline and real income per capita in those counties.

Also, what was up with the arid western plains in Nebraska in 1992 that wasn't happening anywhere else?
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,683
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 22, 2017, 04:57:06 pm »

I miss purple America...
Logged
Blackacre
Spenstar3D
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,116
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -7.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2017, 05:02:39 pm »


We all do. Hopefully it'll come back eventually
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines