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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: ON Progressive)
  Would Mitt Romney have won without hurricane sandy
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Poll
Question: Did Hurricane Sandy cost Mit Romney the election?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 13

Author Topic: Would Mitt Romney have won without hurricane sandy  (Read 3023 times)
Da2017
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« on: February 27, 2017, 02:50:11 am »

Was Obama lucky?
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2017, 11:12:26 am »

Nah, the second debate (a couple of weeks prior) stalled his momentum. He might possibly have won Florida without it though.
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Eharding
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2017, 01:29:43 pm »

He woulda lost anyway.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2017, 01:37:08 pm »

Probably not. He consistently trailed Obama. (I feel, controversially, even without Comey, Clinton would've lost).
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Elephantx10Reilm
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2018, 10:32:48 pm »

Hmmm, i dot't think this is true
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AudmanOut
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2018, 11:23:46 pm »

Yep, eharding was/is right!
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2018, 12:04:03 am »

No. Romney was Dole 2.0.
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dw93
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« Reply #7 on: December 22, 2018, 12:57:44 am »


I wouldn't go that far. Unlike Dole, Romney had a chance to win, it's just that he ran a bad campaign and Obama, despite vulnerabilities ran as strong if not stronger than he did in 2008.
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TML
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« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2018, 03:02:03 am »

According to exit polls, less than 10% of the electorate decided on their votes in the final days leading up to Election Day, and this group went for Obama by 6 points. The net effect of these late deciders gave Obama a boost of less than 1 point. Thus, this was clearly far from decisive (the tipping point state that year, Colorado, was decided by more than 5 points).
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NHI
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« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2018, 09:01:18 am »


I wouldn't go that far. Unlike Dole, Romney had a chance to win, it's just that he ran a bad campaign and Obama, despite vulnerabilities ran as strong if not stronger than he did in 2008.
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swords
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« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2018, 12:42:22 pm »


without sandy

Romney
206+FL= 235.

NH,OH,VA more competitive but Obama carried anyway.

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brucejoel99
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« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2018, 01:48:23 pm »

Nah, the second debate (a couple of weeks prior) stalled his momentum. He might possibly have won Florida without it though.

This. Mittmentum was a lie after the 2nd debate & Obama was steadily growing even before Sandy. The margin may have been closer but Obama still would've won.


I wouldn't go that far. Unlike Dole, Romney had a chance to win, it's just that he ran a bad campaign and Obama, despite vulnerabilities ran as strong if not stronger than he did in 2008.
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Fuzzy Bear Condemns Violent Protests Across the Spectrum
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« Reply #12 on: December 22, 2018, 03:03:46 pm »

I tend to say "No" but I suspect it MIGHT have been closer without Sandy.

Romney DID have some small national leads in polling after the 1st debate; he did change the structure of the election in that 1st debate as he was CLEARLY losing before that.  I think Romney might have been in a position, at one point, to carry the popular vote but lose the Electoral College.

The clutch states for Obama were Ohio and Florida, which Obama pulled out by very small margins.  No one even thought about Iowa and New Hampshire as being anything but likely Obama in 2012.  Those states weren't really affected by Sandy.
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Republicans for Biden
Zyzz
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« Reply #13 on: December 27, 2018, 07:13:58 pm »

I wonder if Chris Christie's hug of Obama after Hurricane Sandy in 2012 destroyed his chances in the 2016 GOP primary?
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Da2017
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« Reply #14 on: December 28, 2018, 07:52:27 am »


without sandy

Romney
206+FL= 235.

NH,OH,VA more competitive but Obama carried anyway.



This more or less. Ohio was an uphill battle for Romney. Virginia I think would barely go to Obama.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #15 on: January 01, 2019, 11:45:42 pm »

He might have won the popular vote (the Gallup polling swung to Obama by 6 points during and after Sandy), but would not have won the EC (I say that he only flips FL and VA and loses 290-248).
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2019, 11:39:49 am »

I wonder if Chris Christie's hug of Obama after Hurricane Sandy in 2012 destroyed his chances in the 2016 GOP primary?

Chris Christie being Chris Christie is what destroyed his chances in the 2016 GOP primary.
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