Iowa is Rubio Country

[UWS]

Republican Presidential Primaries - Map and Delegates Count

Nikki Haley : 902 delegates, 48 % of the vote
Tom Cotton : 350 delegates, 26 % of the vote
Chris Sununu : 135 delegates, 19 % of the vote
Charlie Baker : 39 delegates, 4 % of the vote
Ben Sasse : 31 delegates, 2 % of the vote
Larry Hogan : 4 delegates, 1 % of the vote

1276 delegates needed to win
2550 delegates in total

Democratic Presidential Primaries - Map and Delegates Count

Kamala Harris : 1407 delegates, 42 % of the vote
Chris Kennedy : 969 delegates, 33 % of the vote
John Bel Edwards : 228 delegates, 15 % of the vote
Bob Casey Jr. : 13 delegates, 7 % of the vote
Terry McAuliffe : 0 delegate, 2 % of the vote
Andrew Yang : 0 delegate, 1 % of the vote

2382 delegates needed to win
4763 delegates in total

[UWS]

Marco Rubio's Presidency
March 2024, Part 3

March 15, 2024

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bradley_Byrne_and_Nikki_Haley_-_2018.jpg
-Following the elimination of ISIS leader Abu al-Hassan al-Shimi al-Qurayshi Vice-President Haley campaigns in Chicago, Illinois where she promises to lead America to final victory against terrorism and touted her foreign policy credentials to do so.


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Michelle_Obama_%22Let%E2%80%99s_Move!_Active_Schools%22_event_at_Orr_Elementary_School_(Washington,_D.C.)_6_September_2013.jpg-Kamala Harris and Illinois Senator Michelle Obama held a rally in Chicago, Illinois where they called on Harris’ supporters to go to the polls on March 19.

March 16, 2024
-Tom Cotton campaigns in Ohio on agriculture, manufacturing, faith, social issues and foreign policy. He spends the next day in Wisconsin.


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kennedy_logo_19366395_10155433614343158_4770783325929733682_n-1.jpg
-Chris Kennedy campaigns in Chicago where he touts his record as Governor of Illinois, including universal health care for Illinois and raising the state’s minimum wage to $15. He then campaigned in Milwaukee, Racine and Green Bay, Wisconsin on manufacturing and agriculture.

-Vice-President Haley campaigns in Wisconsin on free trade, energy, tax reform and foreign policy.


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kamala_Harris_-_1.jpg
-Kamala Harris campaigns in Ohio where she touts her bipartisanship and her electability.

March 17, 2024

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Russian_presidential_election_2004,_ballot_paper.png
-In Russia, the first round of the 2024 Russian presidential election is held and it saw isolationist Sergei Polonsky, leader of the For All Party, pulling ahead of Dmitri Medvedev with 48 % to Medvedev’s 34 %. As a result, there will be a second round next week between these two candidates as no one reached the 50 % threshold to win in the first round.


Source : https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/home
-President Rubio saluted the results of the first round of the 2024 Russian presidential election as he declared that the peaceful protesters of the Russian Spring protesting against injustice, tyranny, imperialism and inflation brought hope and mobilized people to vote for a new direction in Russia for the sake of prosperity, peace and justice, which will be a step forward for democracy.

March 18, 2024

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Secretary_Fudge_Meets_With_New_Hampshire_Governor_Chris_Sununu_(51916582909).jpg
-Chris Sununu campaigns in Wisconsin on health care, education and tax reform.

-Chris Kennedy campaigns in Miami, Florida on immigration, free trade and foreign policy.

March 19, 2024

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ballots_in_Florida_-_US_Election_2008_(3005563340).jpg
-Republican and Democratic primary voters in Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Wisconsin go to the polls

[UWS]

FLORIDA, OHIO, ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN PRIMARIES 2024

CNN America's Choice theme : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs



Anderson Cooper : Good evening ladies and gentlemen. I’m Anderson Cooper from CNN’s Election Center. Welcome to the coverage of the Republican and Democratic primaries in FL, OH, IL and WI. This night could be decisive for the Republicans to choose their nominee if Haley sweeps all of tonight’s primaries and for the Dems as an opportunity for either Harris to consolidate her lead or for Kennedy to show his competitiveness by winning at least his home state of Illinois.

In President Rubio’s home state of Florida, we can see that Vice-President Haley has a wide lead there thanks to President Rubio’s popularity and to her support among the Cuban-American voters in the Miami area. On the Democratic side, we can see that Kamala Harris is leading the pack thanks to her support among the Hispanic and African-American community in the Miami-Dade area.

Florida Republican primary (25 % reported) - 116 delegates

Nikki Haley : 62 %
Tom Cotton : 23 %
Chris Sununu : 15 %

Florida Democratic primary(25 % reported) - 276 delegates

Kamala Harris : 48 %
Chris Kennedy : 32 %
John Bel Edwards : 20 %

Cooper : It is 8 pm and we can project that Nikki Haley wins the Florida primary and all the 116 delegates. Kamala Harris widened her lead by sweeping the Tampa and St. Petersburg areas.

Florida Republican primary (50 % reported) - 116 delegates

Nikki Haley : 63 % ✔ - 116 delegates[/b]
Tom Cotton : 22 %
Chris Sununu : 15 %

NIKKI HALEY WINS THE FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley#/media/File:Nikki_Haley_official_photo.jpg

Florida Democratic primary(50 % reported) - 276 delegates

Kamala Harris : 51 %
Chris Kennedy : 32 %
John Bel Edwards : 17 %

Dana Bash : In the state of Ohio we can see that Nikki Haley and Kamala Harris have a comfortable lead over their pack thanks to dominance in the Cleveland/Akron areas.

Ohio Republican primary (25 % reported) - 75delegates

Nikki Haley : 52 %
Tom Cotton : 30 %
Chris Sununu : 18 %

Ohio Democratic primary(25 % reported) - 162 delegates

Kamala Harris : 48 %
Chris Kennedy : 35 %
John Bel Edwards : 17 %

Cooper : It is 8 : 30 pm and Nikki Haley and Kamala Harris strengthened their leads in Ohio by sweeping most of Ohio’s center counties, including in Columbus and Dayton.

Ohio Republican primary (50 % reported) - 75 delegates

Nikki Haley : 55 %
Tom Cotton : 31 %
Chris Sununu : 14 %

Ohio Democratic primary(50 % reported) - 162 delegates

Kamala Harris : 52 %
Chris Kennedy : 34 %
John Bel Edwards : 14 %

John King : It’s 9 pm and we can project that Vice-President Haley will win the Ohio Republican primary and all the 75 delegates while Kamala Harris wins the Ohio Dem primary and also the Florida Dem primary after sweeping the Orlando area

Ohio Republican primary (75 % reported) - 75 delegates

Nikki Haley : 56 % ✔ - 75 delegates[/b]
Tom Cotton : 31 %
Chris Sununu : 13%

NIKKI HALEY WINS OHIO REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley#/media/File:Nikki_Haley_official_photo.jpg

Ohio Democratic primary(75% reported) 162 delegates

Kamala Harris : 54% ✔-97 delegates
Chris Kennedy : 36 % - 65 delegates
John Bel Edwards : 10%

KAMALA HARRIS WINS THE OHIO DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Florida Democratic primary(75% reported) 276 delegates

Kamala Harris : 56% ✔-172 delegates
Chris Kennedy : 34 % - 104 delegates
John Bel Edwards : 10%

KAMALA HARRIS WINS THE FLORIDA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Cooper : We can now turn our attention in the states of Illinois and Wisconsin. In Illinois we can see that Nikki Haley has a wide lead thanks to dominance in the blue collar counties, including in Chicago. On the Democratic side, we can see that Chris Kennedy is leading in his home state thanks to massive support in the area I mentioned though he’s leading Kamala Harris in Chicago by 15 points due to her support among the African-American voters. In Wisconsin, Nikki Haley has a wide lead thanks to sweeping the southeastern counties, including in Milwaukee and Racine. On the Democratic side, it is a close race between Kamala Harris and Chris Kennedy who had good operation advantage as his campaign headquarters are in Chicago, in neighboring Illinois, which gave him a boost in southeastern Wisconsin.

Illinois Republican primary (25 % reported) - 69 delegates

Nikki Haley : 52 %
Chris Sununu : 30 %
Tom Cotton : 18 %

Illinois Democratic primary(25 % reported) - 185 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 53 %
Kamala Harris : 39 %
John Bel Edwards : 8%

Wisconsin Republican primary(25 % reported) - 44 delegates

Nikki Haley : 50 %
Chris Sununu : 27 %
Tom Cotton : 23 %

Wisconsin Democratic primary(25 % reported) - 86 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 48 %
Kamala Harris : 43 %
John Bel Edwards : 9%

Cooper : It is 9 30 pm and we can project that Chris Kennedy wins his home state of Illinois while Nikki Haley increased her lead after she swept northern Illinois and wins Springfield. In Wisconsin, she increased her lead by sweeping the northeastern counties, including in Green Bay while Kamala Harris makes progress in the state by dominating in Green Bay.

Illinois Republican primary(50 % reported) - 69 delegates

Nikki Haley : 55 %
Chris Sununu : 31 %
Tom Cotton : 14 %

Illinois Democratic primary(50 % reported) - 185 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 54 % ✔ - 104delegates
Kamala Harris : 40 % - 81 delegates
John Bel Edwards : 6%
CHRIS KENNEDY WINS ILLINOIS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Own creation

Wisconsin Republican primary(50 % reported) - 44 delegates

Nikki Haley : 51 %
Chris Sununu : 26 %
Tom Cotton : 23 %

Wisconsin Democratic primary(50 % reported) - 86 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 46 %
Kamala Harris : 45 %
John Bel Edwards : 9%

Cooper : It is 10 eastern time and we can project that Haley will win Illinois and 54 delegates of the 69 delegates while Sununu wins the rest. We can also project that she will win in Wisconsin, thus getting close to 1200 delegates. On the Democratic race in Wisconsin, Governor Kennedy increased his lead thanks to dominance in the northwestern rural counties, including the Eau Claire area.

Illinois Republican primary (75 % reported) - 69 delegates

Nikki Haley : 55 % ✔ - 54 delegates[/b]
Chris Sununu : 30% - 15 delegates
Tom Cotton : 15 %
NIKKI HALEY WINS THE ILLINOIS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley#/media/File:Nikki_Haley_official_photo.jpg

Wisconsin Republican primary (75 % reported) - 44 delegates

Nikki Haley : 51 % ✔ - 36 delegates[/b]
Tom Cotton : 25 % - 8 delegates
Chris Sununu : 24 %
NIKKI HALEY WINS WISCONSIN REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley#/media/File:Nikki_Haley_official_photo.jpg

Wisconsin Democratic primary(75 % reported) - 86 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 50 %
Kamala Harris : 46 %
John Bel Edwards : 4%

Cooper : It’s 10:30 and we can project that Chris Kennedy narrowly wins the Wisconsin primary giving a little boost to his campaign

Wisconsin Democratic primary(100 % reported) - 86 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 49 % ✔ - 44 delegates
Kamala Harris : 44% - 42 delegates
John Bel Edwards : 7%
CHRIS KENNEDY WINS WISCONSIN DEM PRIMARY
Own creation

Cooper : Following the primaries, Chris Sununu and Tom Cotton have announced that they dropped out of the race, thus clearing the way for Haley. On the Democratic side, the Louisiana Governor Bel Edwards dropped out of the race, thus facilitating Chris Kennedy’s effort to appeal among white voters to remain competitive against Kamala Harris

TOM COTTON DROPS OUT OF THE RACE
CHRIS SUNUNU DROPS OUT OF THE RACE
JOHN BEL EDWARDS DROPS OUT OF THE RACE
Cooper : Thank you ladies and gentlemen for watching us tonight and we’ll see you next month as we’ll be covering the Super Tuesday III that includes the New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware and Pennsylvania primaries. Have a good night.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hopefully Russia goes in a more Democratic direction after over two decades of Putin

[UWS]

Republican Presidential Primaries - Map and Delegates Count

Nikki Haley : 1183 delegates, 54 % of the vote
Tom Cotton : 358 delegates, 24 % of the vote
Chris Sununu : 150 delegates, 19 % of the vote
Charlie Baker : 39 delegates, 4 % of the vote
Ben Sasse : 31 delegates, 2 % of the vote
Larry Hogan : 4 delegates, 1 % of the vote

1276 delegates needed to win
2550 delegates in total

Democratic Presidential Primaries - Map and Delegates Count

Kamala Harris : 1800 delegates, 48 % of the vote
Chris Kennedy : 1184 delegates, 38 % of the vote
John Bel Edwards : 228 delegates, 13 % of the vote
Bob Casey Jr. : 13 delegates, 5 % of the vote
Terry McAuliffe : 0 delegate, 1% of the vote
Andrew Yang : 0 delegate, 0.5 % of the vote

2382 delegates needed to win
4763 delegates in total

[UWS]

CNN AMERICA'S CHOICE 2024

„Aftermath of the March 19th Contests“

STATE OF PLAY

Campaign News

DEMOCRATS

In the immediate aftermath of the March 19th Democratic Primaries California Senator Kamala Harris Campaign Manager Jim Messina sent out a Press Release & Communique argueing that Illinois Governor Chris Kennedy would now need to win over 70 % of the remaining Delegates to overhaul Senator Harris. Harris now has 1.800 Delegates according to internal Campaign Figures while Governor Kennedy has 1.184 Delegates outpacing him by 616 Delegates. Harris needs 582 Delegates to clinch the Democratic Presidential Nomination.
864 Delegates are at stake on April 23rd in States like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Pennsylvania

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DEBATE NEWS

The DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE announced that Senator Kamala D. Harris and Governor Chris Kennedy have agreed to a Final 1 vs 1 Presidential Debate at the Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York on April 21st two Days before New Yorkers and Voters in five other States go to the Polls hosted by NBC NEWS, NBC NEWS NOW and the NBC NEWS YOUTUBE Channel.

Debate Moderators: „NBC NEWS Nightly News Anchor“ Lester Holt,
„NBC NEWS Today Show Anchor“ Savannah Guthrie and „NBC NEWS Meet The Press Anchor“ Chuck Todd.

THE PODIUM

       Harris            Kennedy     

Senator Harris responded to CNN Correspondent Rebecca Berg at a Campaign Event in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania where she was endorsed by former Pennsylvania Governor and current Senator Tom Wolf

Look Rebecca, I've no problem having more Debates. Unlike previous Democratic Nominations this year it has been very civil, polite and even funny sometimes. I have been friends with Governor Kennedy for years and we will still be friends after this is all over. I think we are in a good Position but Democrats across the Country and in those States who are still holding Contests deserve to have their voices heard. And by the way a drawn-out Democratic Nomination did not hurt Barack Obama in 2008 and that Contest between himself and Hillary Clinton was waaay more nasty compared to this year. We will have a unified Democratic Party come November.

Governor Kennedy meanwhile responded as well to CNN Correspondent René Marsh while campaigning in Hartford, Connecticut en route to Providence, Rhode Island

I am very grateful that Senator Harris agreed to another Debate next month René. Voters in those State deserve to make a choice and have their voices heard. As Kamala said, we have been friends over quite a few years and we will still support each other when this Nomination is finished no matter who comes out on top. I acknowlege that we do face long odds to win this now. I think we're going to have a good Debate between the two of us next month.

REPUBLICANS

Due to Vice President Nikki Haley sweeping the March 19th Contests and Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton & New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu dropping out of the Race Haley has all but cleared the Republican Presidential Nomination. The Vice President currently sits at 1.183 Delegates, just 93 Delegates short of formally becoming the Presumptive Republican Presidential Nominee which is certainly going to happen during the April Contests.
In the wake of these Developments Haleys Campaign Team has advised the Republican National Committee that they will formally begin the search of a Running Mate with vetting set to commence in early April.

CNN's Chief National Correspondent Sara Murray obtained a VP Shortlist:

VICE PRESIDENT HALEYS VP SHORTLIST

Utah Senator Josh Romney
Texas Senator George P. Bush
Florida Senator Carlos Lopez-Cantera
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst
South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem
Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds
Ohio Governor Mary Taylor

Campaign Aides stressed to Murray that other Candidates could emerge. However they also acknowledged that Ohio Governor Mary Taylor appears to be the Frontrunner.
Taylor was set to launch her own Presidential Bid in case Haley wouldn't have thrown her hat into the ring but aborted her plans after the Vice President formally launched her Presidential Bid in late April/early May of last year.
Haley Campaign Aides say the Vice President has a very close bond with the Ohio Governor through the years with Haley endorsing Taylors Candidacy for Governor in the Republican Primary 2018 when the then Lieutenant Governor was pretty much written off by Pundits. Haley campaigned numerous times for the Ohio Governor during the 2022 Midterm Elections which was a very difficult year for Republicans in general.
An All-Women Ticket is definitly on the cards Campaign Aides say.

WHITE HOUSE REACTION IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE MARCH 19TH NOMINATION CONTESTS

On March 21st 2024 during her Daily Press Briefing White House Press Secretary Dana Perino responded to a Question that was asked when President Rubio would appear with Vice President Haley saying quote "When the Vice President officially clinches the Delegate threshold" unquote suggesting it could come after the April Contests.

Senior White House Aides & Advisors telling CNN's Chief White House Correspondent Michelle Kosinski that although the Race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination is still ongoing they now fully expect California Senator Kamala D. Harris to become the Democratic Presidential Nominee at some Point either after the April Contest or in May/early Spring.
Aides to the President have also stressed out when President Rubio does make that Joint Appearance with the Vice President he will talk about the Administrations Accomplishments as he is very reluctant to personally attack Senator Harris as the California Senator helped pass some Key Legislative Agendas during his Presidency notably the Opportunity Act in 2018 reforming the Nations Immigration System.

DEMOCRATS ENJOY ENTHUSIASM GAP

Early County-by-County and Precinct Data suggesting that Democrats enjoy a significant Enthusiasm in Battground States such as Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona heading into the November Elections particularly among Core Demographic Groups such as African-Americans and Hispanics. AA-Turnout in North Carolina was significantly higher compared to 2020 when then Senator Cory Booker ran for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Higher than usual Turnout among Black Voters in the Tar Heel State enabled the former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court Cheri Beasley to beat Attorney General Josh Stein to become the Democratic Nominee for North Carolina Governor. Beasley will face Incumbent Governor Dan Forest in November. Similar Turnouts were seen in Georgia (Blacks) and Arizona (Hispanics).
Even in the Home State of Senator Harris, California AA-Turnout was higher compared to 2020 which almost enabled Rep. Barbara Lee to come out of nowhere (Lee was polling in 4th heading into E-Day) and lock out the sitting Senator of that State, Condoleeza Rice. The Race was just recently called for Rice (more than two weeks after California closed its Polls) who faces former California Secretary of State Alex Padilla in November where she is the decided Underdog.
Democratic & Republican Party Officials who are running the Major Campaign Arms such as the DSCC, the DCCC and the DGA as well as NRSC, NRCCC and the RGA all agreed that Democrats had one of the best recruiting Cycles in a Decade particularly among Candidates who are running for Statewide Office which might see an expanded Senate & Governor Map in the Fall.
Republican Strategists are pointing out that the drop-off among Hispanic Voters in the States with high Hispanic Populations who already held their Presidential Primary was expected given that President Rubio, who happens to be the first Hispanic President, cannot run for another Term. How much will be the drop-off? We don't know! Is it somewhat concerning? Yes, they say.

POLLS, POLLS, POLLS

During CNN's State of the Union Sunday Morning Show on March 24th 2023 CNN/Opinion Research Corporation released new National Polling and for the first time since CNN started to poll this contest in December of 2021 Senator Harris took a lead over the current Vice President Haley garnering 47 % to 43 %. Vice President Haleys Favorables also took a hit as she is view favorably by 48 % while also viewed unfavorably by 46 %. Meanwhile Harris is viewed favorably by 53 % and unfavorably by 45 %. CNN's Political Director David Chalian suggested the toxic nature of the Republican Primary may have been contributing to it. Chalian also said that the prolonged Democratic Primary doesn't appear to have hurt Senator Harris.
Democrats also enjoy a 48-43 edge on the Generic Congressional Ballot over Republicans and have a 12 Point Enthusiasm Gap (70-58) which supports the evidence that had been discussed during the week.
The Silver Lining for Republicans: President Rubio enjoys a 55 % Approval Rating in the CNN/ORC Poll.
REPUBLICANS currently hold a 240-190 Majority over DEMOCRATS in the House of Representatives and a 64-36 Majority in the Senate. Both REPUBLICAN Majorities are expected to shrink this Fall.
The CNN/ORC Poll comes on heels of 3 Battleground State Polls showing Senator Harris leading Vice President Haley in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.
In the Tar Heel State a new ELON UNIVERSITY POLL shows Harris leading Haley 47 % to 44 % while also having Cheri Beasley leading Dan Forest 46-44.
In Georgia a new ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION POLL shows Harris ahead of Haley by 5 Percentage Points 48 % to 43 % while in Arizona an ABC15/OH PREDICTIVE INSIGHTS shows Harris ahead 48 % to 44 %.

RUBIO VS SANDERS 2020 MAP

POPULAR VOTE

MARCO A. RUBIO/NIKKI R. HALEY 63 %

BERNARD SANDERS/DEVAL PATRICK 37 %

FIRST CNN 2024 BATTLEGROUND MAP
HALEY VS HARRIS

Despite Senator Harris leading Vice President Haley in some Polls the Network gives the VP a slight edge in the Electoral College as explained by John King:

King: As you can see we have already moved some States towards the Democrats from the 2020 Map between President Rubio and Senator Sanders [which was a total blowout] such as California (54), Washington State (12), Oregon (7), the overall State of Maine (2), Maine's 1st Congressional District (1), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Connecticut (7) and Illinois (19) that bumps Senator Harris up to 183 Electoral Votes.
The easiest path for Vice President Haley to get elected President is to sweep the Midwest by winning States like Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15) and Pennsylvania (19). That would give VP Haley 272 Electoral College Votes. These four Midwestern States I have just mentioned were all won by President Rubio in 2016 and in 2020.
Senator Harris faces a much steeper challenge having to win Virginia (13), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), New Mexico (5), Arizona (11), Colorado (10) and Nevada (6). If she does that she would be at 260 Electoral College Votes BUT would still need one of the Midwestern States to be elected President. Is that possible? Yes, because of her overwhelming support among African-Americans and Hispanics.
This Map undoubtedly will change over the coming months.

Political Roundtable

Dana Bash: What John King showed us there with the Midwestern States might explain why we are hearing so much chatter about Ohio Governor Mary Taylor potentially being selected as Vice Presidential Running Mate by Haley as she would certainly appeal to voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan and other Rustbelt States.
Cecilia Vega: What I am hearing from Democrats is that they are pretty confident that they win back Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada this year. They are less certain about North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona but pointing out that these States' Demographics moved towards them and President Rubio kind of bucked that trend in 2020 in which he faced a very weak Opponent. Also, Senator Harris could select a Running Mate from the Midwest given her apparent strength in the growth States in the South such as MN Governor Waltz, MN Senator Klobuchar, MI Governor Whitmer or MI Senator Peters as well as PA Senator Tom Wolf who endorsed her this week and that might force VP Haley to win a Southern State to give herself a Margin of Error.
Also, the amount of money Harris has already raised is just staggering. Going to be an interesting Race for sure.
Paul Begala: That we are talking about a close Race after Democrats getting clobbered in 2018 and 2020 is remarkable. Senator Harris has basically brought back the Party from its wilderness by being bipartisan, a problem-solver and not giving in the Sanders/Warren/Ocasio-Cortez type of wing.
Kevin Madden: These Numbers will change. Don't forget that President Marco Rubio is still very popular and the First Lady Jeanette Rubio is as well plus she in my opinion might become VP Haleys most powerful surrogate in the Fall.

[UWS]

Marco Rubio's Presidency
March 2024, Part 3

March 20, 2024

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tom_Cotton_2020_(cropped).jpg
-After dropping out of the race, Tom Cotton endorses Nikki Haley for the presidency.

March 21, 2024

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GOV_SUNUNU_OFFICIAL_PHOTO.jpg
-Chris Sununu, who dropped out of the race two days ago, announced his endorsement to Vice-President Haley in Manchester, New Hampshire
March 23, 2024
-John Bel Edwards endorses Kamala Harris in the Democratic presidential primary race, calling on the party to unite.

March 24-25, 2024

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nikki_Haley_IMG_6500_(26616101996).jpg
Vice-President Haley enjoys the prolonging of the Democratic primary race to hold fundraising events in an effort to fund her campaign ahead of the general election.

March 26-27, 2024
-Kamala Harris and Chris Kennedy campaign across the April primary states, including New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Maryland on immigration, foreign policy, economic issues and health care.

March 30 2024

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukhnaagiin_Kh%C3%BCrels%C3%BCkh#/media/File:Mongolian_Prime_Minister_Khurelsukh_Ukhnaa_in_2018.jpg; own creation
President Rubio hosts Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh at the White House where they discussed issues such as democracy, economic and trade issues, energy, foreign policy, Russia and China. Both men agreed to further increase US-Mongolia energy, notably with mining companies like Berwind Corporation and Massey Energy preparing a bid for the Tavan Tolgoi area, the location of a substantial coking coal deposit. The moreover that after its landlocking situation between Russia and China, the potential election of an America-friendly President in Russia in Sergei Polonsky will give Mongolia the chance to fully side on the right side of history by focusing all its energy exchanges with Russia and America and increasingly reduce its oil exchanges with Beijing, which will be a footstep for freedom by aweakening China's economy

[UWS]

Marco Rubio's Presidency
April 2024, Part 1

April 2, 2024

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nikki_Haley_Lowcountry_Team_SC_Day_(30650984401).jpg
-In an effort to keep Georgia, Vice-President Haley campaigns in Columbus, Georgia where she touts the economic growth of the last 8 years that resulted to the lowest African-American unemployment rate, to the lowest Hispanic unemployment rate and to the lowest Asian-American unemployment thanks to the tax cut, free enterprise and small government policies of the Rubio Administration of that resulted in the creation of 16 million jobs in the last 8 years. She pledges to pursue these policies to make sure that America reaches full employment and that America maintains and expands its status as the land of opportunity

April 4, 2024

Own creation¸
-While campaigning in New York City, New York, Chris Kennedy gave tribute to his father Robert Francis Kennedy who served as Senator of New York whose tenure was marked by his sponsorship of gun control bills that would put federal restrictions on mail-order gun sales, his contribution in helping to start the Bedford Stuyvesant Restoration Corporation in poverty-stricken Bedford–Stuyvesant, Brooklyn and his work on the Senate Labor Committee at the time of the workers' rights activism of Cesar Chavez, Dolores Huerta, and the National Farm Workers Association (NFWA)

April 5, 2024
-While campaigning in Buffalo, New York, Kamala Harris promises to legalize marijuana for recreational purposes.

April 7, 2024

Own creation
-Serguei Polonsky, candidate of the For All Party and isolationist candidate, wins the 2024 Russian presidential election with 64 % of the vote over Dmitry Medvedev's 36 % in the second round, thus marking the election of a pro-democracy and America-friendly President in Russia.

April 8, 2024

-President Rubio welcomed the election of Serguei Polonsky at the presidency of Russia, stating that it will put an end to decades of conflict between the United States and Russia, to arms races between the 2 countries, to Russian agression against its neighbors and to the restoration of peace and territorial integrity in Eastern Europe and Caucasia. He also stated that as long as America is committed to strong leadership, peace and liberty succeed, which has been made possible thanks to America's status as the strongest military on Earth, to strong diplomacy and to America's support to its allies. He stated that such progress will ensure long term global peace and stability and expansion of the respect of human rights.

April 10, 2024
-Vice-President Haley campaigns in Wisconsin where she praised the election of Serguei Polonsky as President of Russia and she promises to pursue the efforts of peace through strength policies of President Rubio, including strong diplomacy and strong military power. She promises to normalize the US-Russia relations to ensure long term global peace.

April 13-14, 2024
-Chris Kennedy and Kamala Harris welcomed the election og Serguei Polonsky as President of Russia, which as they stated will ensure global peace and allow America to focus on other challenges

April 14-16, 2024

Own creation
-In an effort to stop the momentum of Kamala Harris towards the nomination, Chris Kennedy campaigns throughout upstate New York, Connecticut and Rhode Island where he counts on a white population to perform well in the next primary.

[BigVic]

Electoral battleground map looks like OTL's.

[UWS]

Marco Rubio's Presidency
April 2024, Part 2

April 17, 2024

Own creation; https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/home
-President Rubio hosts Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili at the White House where they discussed issues like econoic ties, trade, energy, Russia, Israel and counter-terrorism. During their joint press conference, Zourabichvili thanked America for their military and diplomatic support to Georgia against Putin's Russia, including during the 2008 Georgia-Russia War in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and the Rubio Administration's efforts to preserve Eastern Europe's territorial integrity in the last 8 years through the provision of military arsenal to Ukraine and the inclusion of Eastern European countries (including Finland, Sweden, Ukraine, etc.) into NATO, thus providing them protection against Putin's agression. Both leaders stated that they look forward to working with newly elected Russian President Serguei Polonsky to restore Georgia's sovereignty with a withdrawal of the Russian troops in South Ossetia and Abkhazia
April 19-20, 2024

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nikki_Haley_Budget_Press_Conference_(26955990883).jpg
-Vice-President Haley campaigns in Pennsylvania on economy, energy, foreign policy and constitutional rights

April 21-22, 2024
-Chris Kennedy and Kamala Harris lead their GOTV efforts in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Maryland ahead of the primaries in these states

April 23, 2024

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:PRIMARY_ELECTION_DAY_-_NARA_-_545369.jpg
-Primary voters in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Maryland head to the polls

[UWS]

SUPER TUESDAY III 2024

CNN America's Choice theme : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs



Anderson Cooper : Good evening ladies and gentlemen. I’m Anderson Cooper from CNN’s Election Center. Welcome to the coverage of Super Tuesday III that include the primaries in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland and Delaware. This is likely a crucial contest as it will likely give Nikki Haley enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination and could give Kamala Harris the magic number of delegates to secure the Democratic nomination

Dana Bash : So it is 9 pm and we can already project that Vice-President Haley wins the New York Republican primary and all the 105 delegates, thus clinching the Republican nomination

New York Republican primary (25 % reported) - 105 delegates

Nikki Haley : 100 % ✔ - 105 delegates

NIKKI HALEY WINS THE NEW YORK REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley#/media/File:Nikki_Haley_official_photo.jpg


Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley#/media/File:Nikki_Haley_official_photo.jpg

NIKKI HALEY CLINCHES THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Cooper : Vice-President Haley winning the New York Republican primary gets her at 1288 delegates, more than the 1276 threshold needed to win the Republican nomination, thus making Nikki Haley the Republican presidential nominee. Now on the Democratic side, we can see that Kamala Harris is enjoying a massive lead in New York thanks to her performance in New York City where she gets the support of AA and Latino support. In Connecticut, we can project that Vice-President Haley wins the Republican primary and on the Democratic side we can project that Chris Kennedy leads Kamala Harris

New York Democratic primary(25 % reported)-316 delegates

Kamala Harris : 58 %
Chris Kennedy : 42 %

Connecticut Republican primary (25 % reported) - 30 delegates

Nikki Haley : 100 % ✔ - 30 delegates

NIKKI HALEY WINS THE CONNECTICUT REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley#/media/File:Nikki_Haley_official_photo.jpg

Connecticut Democratic primary(25 % reported)-72 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 55 %
Kamala Harris : 45 %

Cooper : It is 9 : 30 pm and we can project that Kamala Harris' lead in New York had been reduced thanks to Chris Kennedy's performance in upstate New York. Kennedy also increased his lead in Connecticut by winning Hartford. In Rhode Island, we can project that Haley is the winner in the Republican contest while Chris Kennedy leads comfortably. In Pennsylvania, the Vice-President wins the primary there while Kamala Harris has a wide lead over Chris Kennedy thanks to her performance in eastern Pennsylvania, including in Philadelphia and Betlehem.

New York Democratic primary(50 % reported)-316 delegates

Kamala Harris : 55 %
Chris Kennedy : 45 %

Connecticut Democratic primary(50 % reported)-72 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 56 %
Kamala Harris : 44 %

Rhode Island Republican primary (25 % reported) - 19 delegates

Nikki Haley : 100 % ✔ - 19 delegates

NIKKI HALEY WINS THE RHODE ISLAND REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley#/media/File:Nikki_Haley_official_photo.jpg

Rhode Island Democratic primary(25 % reported)-30 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 56 %
Kamala Harris : 44 %

Pennsylvania Republican primary (25 % reported) - 76 delegates

Nikki Haley : 100 % ✔ - 76 delegates

NIKKI HALEY WINS THE PENNSYLVANIA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley#/media/File:Nikki_Haley_official_photo.jpg

Pennsylvania Democratic primary (25 % reported) - 196 delegates

Kamala Harris : 59 %
Chris Kennedy : 41 %

Cooper : It is 10 pm and we can project that the Vice-President will win the states of Maryland and Delaware while Kamala Harris has massive leads over Chris Kennedy. In New York we can project that Chris Kennedy wins in Albany while Kamala Harris wins in Buffalo. CNN is also able to project that Chris Kennedy wins in Connecticut and Rhode Island

Maryland Republican primary (25 % reported) - 40 delegates

Nikki Haley : 100 % ✔ - 40 delegates

NIKKI HALEY WINS THE MARYLAND REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley#/media/File:Nikki_Haley_official_photo.jpg

Delaware Republican primary (25 % reported) - 17 delegates

Nikki Haley : 100 % ✔ - 17 delegates

NIKKI HALEY WINS THE DELAWARE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley#/media/File:Nikki_Haley_official_photo.jpg

Connecticut Democratic primary(75 % reported)-72 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 55 % ✔  - 40 delegates
Kamala Harris : 45 % - 32 delegates

CHRIS KENNEDY WINS THE CONNECTICUT DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Own creation

Rhode Island Democratic primary(50 % reported)-30 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 56 % ✔ - 17 delegates
Kamala Harris : 44 % - 13 delegates

CHRIS KENNEDY WINS THE RHODE ISLAND DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Own creation

Cooper : It is 10 : 30 pm and we can project that Kamala Harris wins primaries of New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware which makes a considerable jump towards the nomination though Kennedy's aides said that the Governor will keep running until someone clinches the nomination

New York Democratic primary(100 % reported)-316 delegates

Kamala Harris : 54 % ✔ - 171 delegates
Chris Kennedy : 46 % - 145 delegates

KAMALA HARRIS WINS NEW YORK DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Source : https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kamala_Harris_official_photo_(cropped2).jpg

Pennsylvania Democratic primary(100 % reported)-196 delegates

Kamala Harris : 56 % ✔ - 110 delegates
Chris Kennedy : 44 % - 86 delegates

KAMALA HARRIS WINS PENNSYLVANIA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Source : https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kamala_Harris_official_photo_(cropped2).jpg

Maryland Democratic primary(25 % reported)-123 delegates

Kamala Harris : 64 % ✔ - 79 delegates
Chris Kennedy : 36% - 44 delegates

KAMALA HARRIS WINS MARYLAND DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Source : https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kamala_Harris_official_photo_(cropped2).jpg

Delaware Democratic primary(25 % reported)-35 delegates

Kamala Harris : 60 % ✔ - 21 delegates
Chris Kennedy : 40 % - 14 delegates

KAMALA HARRIS WINS DELAWARE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Source : https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kamala_Harris_official_photo_(cropped2).jpg

Cooper : So we thank you for watching the coverage of Super Tuesday III and we'll see you in May for the coverage of the Indiana primary, have a good night

[UWS]

Republican Presidential Primaries - Map and Delegates Count

Nikki Haley : 1470 delegates, 56 % of the vote ✔
Tom Cotton : 358 delegates, 22 % of the vote
Chris Sununu : 150 delegates, 17 % of the vote
Charlie Baker : 39 delegates, 3 % of the vote
Ben Sasse : 31 delegates, 1 % of the vote
Larry Hogan : 4 delegates, 1 % of the vote

1276 delegates needed to win
2550 delegates in total

Democratic Presidential Primaries - Map and Delegates Count

Kamala Harris : 2226 delegates, 50 % of the vote
Chris Kennedy : 1474 delegates, 40 % of the vote
John Bel Edwards : 228 delegates, 10 % of the vote
Bob Casey Jr. : 13 delegates, 4 % of the vote
Terry McAuliffe : 0 delegate, 0.5% of the vote
Andrew Yang : 0 delegate, 0.3 % of the vote

2382 delegates needed to win
4763 delegates in total

[UWS]

Marco Rubio's Presidency
April 2024, Part 2

April 24, 2024

Own creation
-After VP Haley secured the Republican nomination, President Rubio receives her in the White House and endorsed her for the presidential election in November. The incumbent President described Haley as the most qualified candidate to lead this nation, to keep this economy growing through free enterprise, small government and tax reform and to keep this country safe through a strong military, strong diplomacy and alliances and strong affirmation of American leadership. "These are qualities that helped getting this nation to where we are today and will keep moving America forward" President Rubio said during the press conference

April 26-27, 2024

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Indianapolis-1872530.jpg
-Ahead of the Indiana Democratic primary, the two remaining candidates for the nomination campaigned heavily in the Hoosier State. Governor Kennedy campaigned on the importance of free trade and the benefits of that policy on manufacturing. He also campaigned on the importance of expanding Medicaid. Senator Harris campaigned on bipartisanship, immigration reform and foreign policy

April 27, 2024

Own creation
-President Rubio campaigns for VP Haley in Green Bay, Wisconsin where he touted her leadership skills, mentionning her work in her mother's clothing business during her teen age, her record as Governor of South Carolina and as Vice-President of the United States, a tenure under which she helped the President to grow this economy through tax reform and the promotion of free enterprise (which got this country to the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years) and helped him keep America safe by leading 2017 diplomatic trip in Pakistan-India that got Pakistan to stop sponsoring terrorism and to fully side with America and India to fight terrorism in Afghanistan after the United States temporarily reduced financial aid to Pakistan, which gave a clear advantage to the United States and their allies over jihadists thanks to the combination of the first and fourth military powers in the world (the US and India) which restored peace, stability and freedom in Afghanistan and ensured that the valliance, courage and sacrifice of the US and allied troops in the last 20 years weren't in vain.

April 30, 2024

https://www.justice.gov/usao/biographies/images/spotlight-hogsett-full.jpg
-Chris Kennedy and Kamala Harris received major endorsements ahead of the Indiana primary. Kennedy received the endorsement of Fort Wayne Mayor Tom Henry while Kamala Harris received the endorsements of Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett and former Senator Evan Bayh

[UWS]

POLITICS AROUND THE COUNTRY
MAY 2024 EDITION

PART 1

PRESIDENTIAL NEWS

STATE OF PLAY

DEMOCRATS

Ahead of the Indiana Presidential Primary, which officially kicks off the May Presidential & Congressional Primaries California Senator Kamala Harris Campaign Manager Jim Messina sent out the following Press Release & Communique:
 
While the Democratic Primary Contests will continue during the Month of May it's now abundantly clear that Senator Harris will be the Democratic Nominee for President when this Process is over. Senator Harris currently has 2,226 Delegates, approximately 156 Delegates short of clinching the threshold to become the Presumptive Democratic Presidential Nominee which we expect to happen at some Point during this month. We thank all the Voters who have already participated during this Process and we will work as hard as we can to have a unified Democratic Party for the Fall Elections.
The May Contests offer Senator Kamala Harris enough Delegates to clinch the Nomination. The California Senator has already won a Majority of Pledged Delegates.

Democratic Presidential Primaries - Map and Delegates Count

Kamala Harris : 2226 delegates, 50 % of the vote
Chris Kennedy : 1474 delegates, 40 % of the vote
John Bel Edwards : 228 delegates, 10 % of the vote
Bob Casey Jr. : 13 delegates, 4 % of the vote
Terry McAuliffe : 0 delegate, 0.5% of the vote
Andrew Yang : 0 delegate, 0.3 % of the vote
2382 delegates needed to win
4763 delegates in total

REPUBLICANS

Meanwhile for the Republican Party where Vice President Nikki Haley has already being the declared the Presumptive Republican Nominee for President her Campaign is ramping up the search for a Running Mate. According to various News Outlets Ohio Senators John Kasich and Rob Portman as well as former Speaker of the House of Representatives John A. Boehner have been lobbying her Campaign Team to pick Ohio Governor Mary Taylor although Campaign Aides thus far have stayed mum on the suject.

CURRENT SHORTLIST OF POTENTIAL RUNNING MATES

Utah Senator Josh Romney
Texas Senator George P. Bush
Florida Senator Carlos Lopez-Cantera
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst
South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem
Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds
Ohio Governor Mary Taylor

Republican Presidential Primaries - Map and Delegates Count

Nikki Haley : 1470 delegates, 56 % of the vote ✔
Tom Cotton : 358 delegates, 22 % of the vote
Chris Sununu : 150 delegates, 17 % of the vote
Charlie Baker : 39 delegates, 3 % of the vote
Ben Sasse : 31 delegates, 1 % of the vote
Larry Hogan : 4 delegates, 1 % of the vote
1276 delegates needed to win
2550 delegates in total

PRESENTIAL TOWN HALLS ANNOUNCED AHEAD OF INDIANA PRIMARIES

The Presidential Campaigns of Vice President Nikki Haley, California Senator Kamala Harris and Illinois Governor Chris Kennedy have all announced Town Halls with various News Organisations. Haley will be in Olmstead, Minnesota hosted by FOX NEWS Anchors Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum (President Rubio carried Minnesotas 10' Electoral Votes in 2016 and 2020 becoming the First Republican Presidential Candidate since Richard Nixon in 1972 to carry the State) while Governor Kennedy will be in Gary, Indiana just across the Illinois Border hosted by ABC NEWS GOOD MORNING AMERICA Co-Anchor George Stephanopoulos while Harris will hold her Town Hall at the Indiana State University in Terre Haute, Indiana hosted by NBC NEWS TODAY SHOW Anchor Savannah Guthrie.

COMMISSION ON PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES REVEAL DEBATE MODERATORS FOR FALL DEBATES

Although the Locations and Dates have yet to be revealed the Commission on Presidential Debates revealed the Debate Moderators. In selecting them the Commission acknowledged the potential History Nature of the 2024 Fall Campaign:

• NBC NEWS Chief White House Correspondent & Moderator of MEET THE PRESS Kristen Welker will moderate the 1st Presidential Debate
• CNN STATE OF UNION Co-Anchor Dana Bash & CNN Special Correspondent Cecilia Vega will moderate the 2nd Presidential Debate [A Town Hall Format]
• CBS EVENING NEWS Anchor Norah O'Donnell will moderate the Vice Presidential Debate
• FOX NEWS SUNDAY Anchor Shannon Bream will moderate the 3rd and Final Presidential Debate

2024 BATTLEGROUND MAP
HALEY VS HARRIS

The Battleground Map in the Electoral College remains static since last month with Vice President Haley having a very slight lead over California Senator Harris. The Map isn't expected to changed until we get closer to the Conventions or after those.

[Plankton5165]

Why isn't this is real life. Loving this TL when a competent Republican defeats Hillary and the world moves on.

Tell me about it.

I would've been like, dream come true. This is what I'm talking about.

[Plankton5165]

Wow.

The slightest difference in Iowa and Rubio would've been POTUS today easily.

Even though Cruz won Iowa, he suspended his campaign the same day as in this hypothetical IRL!

And when I saw Rubio would face Sanders, I was like, "why Sanders over Biden?"

[Plankton5165]

LOL, Rubio would also be the 45th President at 45 years of age.

Nikki Haley would also be 44, giving the Rubio/Haley ticket the record for the successful Presidential ticket with the youngest combined ages (The previous holder was, or IRL still is, Clinton/Gore, who were 46 and 44, respectively.)

However, Haley turned 45 on Inauguration Day. I wasn’t thinking about that. So I’m not sure.

[Plankton5165]

What could Rubio have done to win the Iowa caucus that he did not IRL anyway?

[UWS]

POLITICAL NEWS AROUND THE COUNTRY
MAY 2024 EDITION

PART 2

CALIFORNIA SHIFTS TOWARDS DEMOCRATS FOLLOWING PRIMARY; SPECIAL ELECTION IN NEW JERSEY

(TOSS UP STATES)

ARIZONA

The Arizona Senate Race has changed yet again over the last two months. Former Congresswoman Krysten Sinema dropped out of the Democratic Senate Primary and is now running as an Independent leaving former NASA Astronaut & husband of former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords Mark Kelly and Congressman Raul Grijalva to battle it out in the Democratic Primary giving Republicans hope that they potentially hold this Open Seat currently held by retiring Senator Jeff Flake.
Arizona Primary for Senate & Congress: August 6th 2024

(OPEN SEAT)

Declared Candidates
State Treasurer Kimberly Yee (R)
former Attorney General Mark Brnovich (R)
Arizona U. S. Rep. Raul Grijalva (D)
Political Activist & former NASA Astronaut Mark Kelly (D)

Former Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema (I)

FLORIDA

The Florida Senate Race between Incumbent Senator Rick Scott (R) and Congresswoman Val Demings (D) remains a Toss Up.

Florida Primary for Senate & Congress: August 20th 2024

Declared Candidates

Senator Rick Scott [Incumbent] (R)
Rep. Val Demings (D)

GEORGIA SPECIAL ELECTION

(PARTIAL TERM)

The Field for the Georgia Senate Special Election which will be held the same Day as the 2024 Presidential Election seems to be set. Four Major Candidates will be vying for the Seat. Senator Geoff Duncan, who was appointed by Governor Brian Kemp after the passing of Johnny Isakson, Kelly Loeffler the CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, Raphael Warnock and Congresswoman Carolyn Bourdeaux. There will be a Runoff four weeks later in early December if no Candidate receives 50 % which seems likely at this Point.

Georgia Senate Special Election Primary: November 5th 2024

Declared Candidates

Senator Geoff Duncan [Incumbent/Appointed] (R)
CEO Intercontinental Exchange Kelly Loeffler (R)
Pastor Raphael Warnock (D)
Former Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D)

NEW MEXICO

There is not much movement happening in New Mexico. The Senate Seat currently head by Senator Susana Martinez will surely among the closely watched on Election Night in November and remains a Prime Pick Up Opportunity for Democrats with them getting their Top Recruit in Congresswoman Michelle Lujàn-Grisham.

New Mexico Primary for Senate & Congress: June 4th 2024

Declared Candidates
Senator Susana Martinez [Incumbent] (R)
Former Rep. Michelle Lujàn-Grisham (D)

NEVADA

A new Emerson College Poll done by the Local TV Station KLAS has former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez-Masto slightly ahead of Congresswoman Jacky Rosen and Congresswoman Dina Titus in the Democratic Senatorial Primary. Senator Dean Heller remains among the most vulnerable Republican Incumbent Senators this Cycle. The Race is currently rated as Toss Up.

Nevada Primary for Senate & Congress: June 14th 2024

Declared Candidates
Senator Dean Heller [Incumbent] (R)
Former Attorney General Catherine Cortez-Masto (D)
Former Rep. Jacky Rosen (D)
Former Rep. Dina Titus (D)

WISCONSIN

The Race to take on Incumbent Senator Mark Green seems to be set after no other Democrat is challenging Congressman Mark Pocan in the Democratic Senatorial Primary. It remains to be seen how much the Incumbent might benefit that the Republican National Convention will be in Milwaukee. For now the Race remains a Toss Up.

Wisconsin Primary for Senate & Congress: August 6th 2024

Declared Candidates
Senator Mark Green [Incumbent] (R)
Rep. Mark Pocan (D)

MICHIGAN

A new Mitchell Communications Poll out of Michigan shows Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson with 30 % of the Vote with Congresswoman Slotkin & Stevens at 20 % each and 30 % of Voters still undecided. Benson has made electability a center piece of her Campaign for Senate as she was the lone survivor in the 2018 Republican Midterm wipeout declaring she can win tough Elections. She also posts a 48-43 lead over Incumbent Senator John E. James in the Mitchell Poll.

Michigan Primary for Senate & Congress: August 13th 2024

Declared Candidates
Senator John E. James [Incumbent] (R)
Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D)
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D)
Rep. Haley Stevens (D)

(LEAN STATES)

CALIFORNIA

Follwing the California Primary in March and a prolonged Vote Count in the Golden State that dragged on for nearly six weeks former California Secretary of State Alex Padilla and Incumbent Senator and former Secretary of State & NSA Advisor under George W. Bush Condoleeza Rice emerged as the Top 2 Vote Getters. Rice had to survive a massive scare as Congresswoman Barbara Lee came within 10,000 Votes off knocking her out of the Top 2 due to increased Turnout among African-American Voters as the Primary was held the same Day as the Presidential Primary where Harris crushed Kennedy in her Home State. Due to the increased likelyhood that Kamala Harris will lead the Democratic Ticket in the Presidential Election come November we decided to move the State to LEANS DEMOCRAT.

November Candidates
Senator Condoleeza Rice [Incumbent] (R)
Former California Secretary of State Alex Padilla (D)

MONTANA

Montana Republicans have cleared the Republican Senatorial Primary for former Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke after current Incumbent Senator Greg Gianforte forgoed Re-Election and instead choose to run for Governor primarying unpopular Governor Tim Fox. Zinke will take on former Montana Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooney.

Montana Primary for Senate & Congress: June 6th 2024

Declared Candidates

Former Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke (R)

Former Montana Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooney (D)

VERMONT

In a bright Spot for Senate Republicans during an otherwise Democratic favourable Map in 2024 the NRSC managed to recruit poplular Vermont Governor Phil Scott to run for the Senate Seat held by Progressive Independent Senator Bernie Sanders, who announced on September 2nd 2023, shortly after the August Recess that he would not seek Re-Election in 2024. Scott made his own Senate Announcement on September 16th 2023. Scott will still face an uphill battle with Rep. Peter Welch who announced his own Run to replace Sanders in the Senate.

Likely November Candidates
Governor Phil Scott (R)
Rep. Peter Welch (D)

Senator John Kasich of Ohio and Senator Ann Wagner of Missouri are running for Re-Election in November.
Democratic Senators Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Tim Kaine of Virginia are running for Re-Election next year as well and so did Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey Jr. after his Presidential Campaign fizzled out.

(SAFE STATES)

NEW YORK

The Democratic Senatorial Primary was held on April 23rd 2024 but the outcome who will emerge as the Winner, Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand or her Progressive Challenger Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is still doubt. Gillibrand leads by about 50,000 Votes as Absentee Vote-by-Mail Ballots continue to be counted. Harris had endorsed Gillibrand and campaigned for her.

MASSACHUSETTS

The Democratic Senatorial Primary in the Bay State between Incumbent Senator Elizabeth Warren and her Challenger Joe Kennedy III remains tight. A new Emerson College Poll done for a Boston TV Station shows the Candidates neck and neck.

NEW JERSEY SENATE SPECIAL ELECTION

The sudden death of Senator Sheila Oliver, who was also a close ally to California Senator Kamala Harris, has neccessinated a Special Election in the Garden State which will be held on the same Day as the 2024 Presidential Election. Incumbent Governor Phil Murphy has appointed Tahesha Way to the Senate.

SOLID REPUBLICAN (10 Seats)
LEAN REPUBLICAN (3 Seats)
TOSS UP (7 Seats)
LEAN DEMOCRAT (5 Seats)
SOLID DEMOCRAT (10 Seats)

Apart from the California Senate Race which we moved from TOSS UP towards LEAN DEMOCRAT nothing significant has changed on this Map since we last looked at it in March. Arizona could potentially be considered as a lost Opportunity for Democrats with Sinema now running as an Independent.

[Plankton5165]

The real second Republican debate results for 2024 are making me wish even more that this were the real timeline.

But instead, they opted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and it looks like he’s going to be the first Republican in history to be nominated three times in a row and he broke the record for the oldest President the first time, to wait for his record to be broken just four years later by Joe Biden, and now it looks like we’re going to have a rematch of 2020 that involves an 82-year old incumbent and 78-year old criminal former President! I don’t know what’s gotten into the American people!

[UWS]

POLITICAL NEWS AROUND THE COUNTRY
MAY 2024 EDITION

PART 3

GOVERNOR NEWS

CHALLENGING POLIICAL ENVIRONEMENT SHIFTS SEVERAL REPUBLICAN-HELD GOVERNORSHIPS INTO TOSS UP CATEGORY

DELAWARE (OPEN SEAT)

Three Democrats have announced Runs to succeed termed-out Governor John Carney (D), Lieutenant Governor Bethanie Hall-Long (D), Attorney General Kathy Jennings (D) and New Castle County Executive Matt Mayer (D).
On the Republican Side Attorney Julianne Murray (R), who ran against Governor Carney in 2020 announced she would run again in 2024.
Delaware Statewide Primary: September 10th 2024

Declared
Lieutenant Governor Bethanie Hall-Long (D)
Attorney General Kathy Jennings (D)
New Castle County Executive Matt Mayer (D)
Attorney Julianne Murray (R)

INDIANA (OPEN SEAT)

Crowded Republican Governor Primary features Five Candidates running against each other with Businessman Mike Braun (R), Lieutenant Governor Suzanne Crouch (R), former State Treasurer Kelly Mitchell (R), Attorney General Todd Rokita (R) and Congressman Greg Pence (R), brother of Senator Mike Pence vying to succeed term-limited Governor Eric Holcomb (R). Laying in-wait is former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D).
A WISH-TV Poll shows Braun slightly ahead of Pence 25-20. Hoosier State Election Official expect a record-breaking Turnout in the May 7th 2024 Primary.
The crowded nature of the Republican Primary and the challenging Overall Political Environement has made the Race a TOSS UP for now.
Indiana Statewide Primary: May 7th 2024

Declared Candidates
Buisnessman Mike Braun (R)
Lieutenant Governor Suzanne Crouch (R)
Former State Treasurer Kelly Mitchell (R)
Attorney General Todd Rokita (R)
Rep. Greg Pence (R)
Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D)

MISSOURI

Incumbent Governor Mike Parson (R) will seek Reelection to a 2nd Term. Parson overwhelmingly won Election to his 1st Term as Governor of Missouri when scandal-plagued Governor Eric Greitens decided not to run again in 2020.
In late October, at the urging of the Democratic Governors Association, former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) announced a run to challenge Parson.
Missouri Statewide Primary: August 6th 2024

Declared Candidates
Governor Mike Parson [Incumbent] (R)
Former Missouri Secretary of State & 2016' Senate Nominee Jason Kander (D)

MONTANA

A new Billings Gazette/Mason-Dixon Poll shows Senator Greg Gianforte (R) ahead 59-29 over Incumbent Governor Tim Fox (R) ahead of Montanas Statewide Primary next month which largely explains why Gianforte decided to run for Governor and forgoed a Re-Election Campaign for Senate. On the Democratic Side former Montana State Auditor Monica Lindeen (D) leads '2018 Congressional Nominee Kathleen Williams (D) 49-40. Gianforte has Double Digit leads over either Lindeen or Williams in the General Election.
Montana Statewide Primary: June 6th 2024

Declared Candidates
Governor Tim Fox [Incumbent] (R)
Senator Greg Gianforte (R)
Former Montana State Auditor Monica Lindeen (D)
'18 Congressional Nominee Kathleen Williams (D)

NORTH CAROLINA

A mouthwatering November clash between Incumbent Governor Dan Forest (R) and former North Carolina Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) awaits in the Tar Heel State after Beasley bested Attorney General Josh Stein in the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary riding on the coattails of California Senator Harris who won the State decisivly. Just like North Carolinas' 16 Electoral Votes the Governor Contest is also a TOSS UP!

November Candidates

Governor Dan Forest [Incumbent] (R)

Former NC Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley (D)

NORTH DAKOTA

Incumbent Governor Doug Burgum (R) will seek Reelection to a 3rd Term as Governor of North Dakota. Burgum won a surprise Primary Victory over North Dakota Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem in 2016 after failing to get the Endorsement from the North Dakota Republican Party at their State Convention. He went on to win the 2016 & 2020 General Elections quite easily. Burgum is currently one of the most popular Governors in the Nation and is expected to face only token Primary and General Opposition next year.
North Dakota Statewide Primary: June 11th 2024

Declared Candidates
Governor Doug Burgum [Incumbent] (R)

NEW HAMPSHIRE

The Granite State will have competitive Primaries on both sides of the aisle after Governor Chris Sununu (R) declined to seek Re-Election after his Presidential Bid fizzled out. On the Republican Side Former Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) is facing a challenge from former State Senate President Chuck Morse (R) while on the Democratic Side Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) has joined Stefany Shaheen (D) and Colin van Ostern (D) in the Democratic Primary. The Race has been moved to TOSS UP.
New Hampshire Statewide Primary: September 10th 2024

Declared Candidates
Former Senator & New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R)
Former New Hampshire State Senate President Chuck Morse (R)
Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D)
Former Portsmouth Mayor Stefany Shaheen (D)
'16 Democratic Governor Nominee Colin van Ostern (D)

UTAH

Incumbent Governor Spencer Cox (R) will seek Reelection to a 2nd Term as Governor of Utah. Cox, well known for his moderate stance of Issues won a crowded Republican Primary in 2020 and went on to win the General Election quite easily to succeed Governor Gary Herbert. Cox is likely going to face only token Opposition in the Primary & General Elections next year.
Utah Statewide Primary: June 25th 2024

Declared Candidates
Governor Spencer Cox [Incumbent] (R)

VERMONT

Republicans are facing an uphill battle to keep the Governors Mansion in Vermont after Popular Governor Phil Scott (R) declined to seek Re-Election and is instead running for the Open Senate Seat of retiring Senator Bernie Sanders (I). Democrats have a competive Primary with Former Vermont Lieutenant Governor David Zuckermann (D) facing off against State Attorney General T. J. Donovan (D). The Winner faces Republican Brian Dubie (R) in the General Election. The Race has been shifted to LEAN DEMOCRAT.
Declared Candidates
Former Vermont Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie (R)
Former Vermont Lieutenant Governor David Zuckermann (D)
Attorney General T. J. Donovan (D)

WASHINGTON

A rare bright spot for Republicans this year is the Open Governors Office in Washington State where the RGA has managed to recruit Secretary of State Kim Wyman (R), the only Republican in the entire State who could make this Race competitive. President Rubio recently held a Fundraiser for Wyman in Seattle. The Question is if Wyman manages to get out of the Top 2 Primary in August. Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) and King County Executive Dow Constantine (D) are also vying to replace Governor Jay Inslee (D), who declined to seek Re-Election. The Race is currently rated as TOSS UP.
Washington State Open Statewide Primary: August 6th 2024

Declared Candidates
Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D)
King County Executive Dow Constantine (D)
Secretary of State Kim Wyman (R)

WEST VIRGINIA (OPEN SEAT)

Secretary of State Mac Warner (R), Moore Capito (R), Son of former West Virginia Senator Shelley Moore-Capito (R), who is currently heading President Rubios EPA and 3 others are vying to replace termed-out Governor Jim Justice (R).
The Race has been stuck at SOLID REPUBLICAN after former West Virginia Governor & Senator Joe Manchin (D) declined a Run.
West Virginia Statewide Primary: June 11th 2024

Declared Candidates
Secretary of State Mac Warner (R)
Moore Capito (R)
State Senate President Craig Blair (R)
State Agriculture Commissioner Kent Leonhardt (R)
State Auditor J. B. McCuskey (R)

[UWS]

Marco Rubio's Presidency
May 2024, Part 1

May 1, 2024

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Reggie_Love,_Ryann_Richardson,_and_Pete_Buttigieg_virtual_town-hall.jpg
-Ahead of the Indiana Democratic primary, Kamala Harris received the endorsement of former South Bend Mayor and gubernatorial candidate Pete Buttigieg.

May 4, 2024
-Primary voters in Indiana head to the polls ahead of the Indiana primary.

May 5-8, 2024
-Chris Kennedy and Kamala Harris campaign in West Virginia, Kentucky and Nebraska on energy, environment, agriculture and health care issues.

May 7, 2024

Own creation
-Sergei Polonsky is inaugurated as President of Russia, marking the transition of Russia towards democracy and to a reinforcement of peace and stability in Eastern Europe due to Polonsky's isolationist philosophy and friendliness towards the United States.

May 10, 2024

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charleston,_West_Virginia#/media/File:Kanawha_Cty_Apr_09.JPG
-Democratic primary voters in West Virginia, Kentucky and Nebraska head to the polls ahead of the primaries in their states.

May 11, 2024

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War#/media/File:Sokhumi&McFaul-2008-Batumi.jpg; Own creation
-Shortly after his inauguration, Russian President Sergei Polonsky withdraws Russian troops from Georgia, including the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia that the Putin/Medvedev Russia has invaded in 2008 in the context of the 2008 Russo-Georgian War in support of the pro-Russian insurgency there. Polonsky stated that it is time for Russia to stand on the right side of history and to ensure the respect of territorial integrity in the world and democracy and human rights which goes through the restoration of Georgia's territorial sovereignty. President Rubio praised Polonsky's move, declaring that it is a giant step towards long-term enduring peace in Eastern Europe and in Caucasia after decades of agression by Putin's Russia against its neighbors in Eastern Europe and nuclear escalation. During a press conference at the White House, President Rubio declared that he looks foward to work with Polonsky on the normalization of the relations between the two countries and on the dismantling of nuclear weapons.

[UWS]

INDIANA PRIMARY 2024

CNN America's Choice theme : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs



Anderson Cooper : Good evening ladies and gentlemen. I’m Anderson Cooper from CNN’s Election Center. Welcome to the coverage of the Indiana primary that will determine wether Kamala Harris will keep her momentum going or if Chris Kennedy will prolong the Democratic primary season by orchestrating in comeback in the Hoosier State.

In Indiana we can project that Chris Kennedy is currently leading in the Hoosier State by sweeping most of the state's western counties that border his home state of Illinois.

Indiana Democratic primary(25 % reported) - 72 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 52 %
Kamala Harris : 44 %

Cooper : It is now 8:25 pm and we can project that Kamala Harris has taken the lead in Indiana after sweeping the Indianapolis region where she benefits from the support of the local AA community and also in South Bend.

Indiana Democratic primary(50 % reported) - 72 delegates

Kamala Harris : 50 %
Chris Kennedy : 46 %

Cooper : It is 9 pm and we can project that Governor Kennedy and Senator Harris are sharing dominance in northern Indiana but Kennedy gets the biggest price by winning in Fort Wayne narrowly.

Indiana Democratic primary(75 % reported) - 72 delegates

Kamala Harris : 51 %
Chris Kennedy : 48 %

Cooper : It is 9 : 30 pm and we can project that Senator Kamala Harris has won the Indiana Democratic primary with 50.5 % over Kennedy's 49.5 %, thus keeping the momentum going though we'll have to see next week whether Kennedy can count on white support in next week's primaries notably in West Virginia and Nebraska.

Indiana Democratic primary(100 % reported) 72 delegates

Kamala Harris : 50.5 % ✔-36 delegates
Chris Kennedy : 49.5 % - 36 delegates

KAMALA HARRIS WINS THE INDIANA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Cooper : Thanks for joining us in the coverage of the Indiana primary. We'll see you next week for the coverage of the West Virginia, Kentucky and Nebraska primaries. Have a good night.

[UWS]

WEST VIRGINIA, KENTUCKY AND NEBRASKA PRIMARIES 2024

CNN America's Choice theme : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs



Anderson Cooper : Good evening ladies and gentlemen. I’m Anderson Cooper from CNN’s Election Center. Welcome to the coverage of the West Virginia, Kentucky and Nebraska primaries. It is 8 pm and we can project that Chris Kennedy leads big in West Virginia mostly thanks to white support and moderate support. Meanwhile, in Kentucky it is a close race between the two candidates.

West Virginia Democratic primary(25 % reported) - 30 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 55 %
Kamala Harris : 39 %

Kentucky Democratic primary(25 % reported) - 57 delegates

Kamala Harris : 48 %
Chris Kennedy : 46 %

Cooper : It is now 8 : 30 pm and we can project that Chris Kennedy increased his lead in West Virginia by sweeping West Virginia's center counties, including narrowly the Kanawha County, home to Charleston, while Senator from California narrowly goes at the top in Huntingtown. In Kentucky we can project that Senator Harris wins in the Jefferson County, home to Louisville, and the Franklin County, home to Frankfort.

West Virginia Democratic primary(50 % reported) - 30 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 60 %
Kamala Harris : 40 %

Kentucky Democratic primary(50 % reported) - 57 delegates

Kamala Harris : 52 %
Chris Kennedy : 47 %

Cooper : It is now 9 pm and we can project that Kennedy wins the West Virginia Democratic primary in addition of closing the gap in Kentucky but is still trailing due to the support of minority vote for Harris in Kentucky.

Kentucky Democratic primary(75 % reported) - 57 delegates

Kamala Harris : 51 %
Chris Kennedy : 49 %

West Virginia Democratic primary(75 % reported) - 30 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 59 % ✔ - 18 delegates
Kamala Harris : 41 % - 12 delegates

CHRIS KENNEDY WINS WEST VIRGINIA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Own creation

Cooper : It is 10 pm and we can project that Senator Harris wins Kentucky Democratic primary. In Nebraska, we can project that Kennedy has a comfortable advantage in Nebraska, leading with 52 % of the vote.

Kentucky Democratic primary(100% reported) 57 delegates

Kamala Harris : 52 % ✔-30 delegates
Chris Kennedy : 48 % - 27 delegates

KAMALA HARRIS WINS THE KENTUCKY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Nebraska Democratic primary(25 % reported) - 26 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 52 %
Kamala Harris : 45 %

Cooper : It is 10 : 30 pm and we can project that Harris closes the gap in Nebraska by winning in the state's eastern counties like in Lincoln area.

Nebraska Democratic primary(50 % reported) - 26 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 53 %
Kamala Harris : 47 %

Cooper : It is 10 : 45 pm and the race in Nebraska is fairly close but Chris Kennedy keeps his lead with dominance through the western counties.

Nebraska Democratic primary(75 % reported) - 26 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 54 %
Kamala Harris : 46 %

Cooper : It is 11 pm and we can project that Chris Kennedy will win the Nebraska Democratic primary.

Nebraska Democratic primary(100 % reported) - 26 delegates

Chris Kennedy : 54 % ✔ - 14 delegates
Kamala Harris : 46 % - 12 delegates

CHRIS KENNEDY WINS NEBRASKA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Own creation

Cooper : Kennedy gave new momentum for his campaign that pledged to keep going until one of the two candidates clinches the nomination. Thank you for watching our coverage of the West Virginia, Kentucky and Nebraska primaries ladies and gentlemen, we'll see you in two weeks for the coverage of the Kansas and Oregon primaries.

[UWS]

Republican Presidential Primaries - Map and Delegates Count

Nikki Haley : 1651 delegates, 59 % of the vote ✔
Tom Cotton : 358 delegates, 21 % of the vote
Chris Sununu : 150 delegates, 16 % of the vote
Charlie Baker : 39 delegates, 2 % of the vote
Ben Sasse : 31 delegates, 1 % of the vote
Larry Hogan : 4 delegates, 1 % of the vote

1276 delegates needed to win
2550 delegates in total

Democratic Presidential Primaries - Map and Delegates Count

Kamala Harris : 2316 delegates, 49 % of the vote
Chris Kennedy : 1569 delegates, 42 % of the vote
John Bel Edwards : 228 delegates, 7 % of the vote
Bob Casey Jr. : 13 delegates, 2 % of the vote
Terry McAuliffe : 0 delegate, 0.2% of the vote
Andrew Yang : 0 delegate, 0.1 % of the vote

2382 delegates needed to win
4763 delegates in total