Iowa is Rubio Country
UWS:
Introduction
Own creation - modification
The 2016 Republican Iowa caucuses on February 1 2016, were concluded through pretty close results between Ted Cruz (who won the Iowa caucuses with 28 % of the vote), Donald Trump (who got 24 %) and Marco Rubio (who got 23 % of the vote).
If I made a timeline about an alternate scenario in which Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses, it would not be interesting because I think that Trump would still have won the Republican nomination if he won the Iowa caucuses.
So I decided to make a timeline about what would have happened if Florida Senator Marco Rubio, rising star of the Republican Party, won the Iowa caucuses.
UWS:
Background, Part 1 :
After Mitt Romney's lost the 2012 US presidential election to Barack Obama, the Republican Party must decide which way to turn.
In 2013, first year of Barack Obama's second term as President of the United States, America faces many divisions among its people. The GOP is divided, mostly on immigration issues due to the Gang of Eight's comprehensive immigration reform bill that would have gave access to American citizenship for illegal immigrants. The American people is also divided on the gun control issue.
The Syrian Civil War opposing the dictatorial regime Bachar al-Assad, supported materially and militarily by Russia for economic purposes, and the Syrian rebellion intensifies, triggering debates on whether the United States should intervene militarily to support the Syrian rebellion. The Ukrainian revolution of 2014 is marked by protests against Russia's political and economic influence on Ukraine. After multiplied protests, pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych resigns, thus gradually freeing Ukraine from Russia's influence and orienting Kiev to the European Union, a tendency reinforced by the election of Petro Proshenko as President of Ukraine on May 2014. But days after Yanukovych fled Kiev on February 2014, an armed pro-Russian rebellion opposed to the Europeanization emerges in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, multiplying attacks against the Ukrainian army. Determined to protect it's economic interests in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin's Russia intervenes militarily in Ukraine, annexes Crimea, and materially supports the pro-Russian rebellion, all actions marking a violation of territorial integrity.
Due to US troops' and US allies' troops withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, this country witnesses the emergence of the jihadist group of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a branch of Al Qaeda operating in Iraq and Syria. Led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS takes most of the western part of Iraq and approaches Baghdad. It also extended its territory in eastern Syria. ISIS' rise forced the United States and their allies, including their Arab partners, to start an air-based military intervention in Iraq and Syria in order to fight ISIS through airstrikes.
Partly due to such increasing international insecurity and to Obama's decreasing job approval, the 2014 midterm elections were concluded through successes by the Republican Party who increased its dominance in the House of Representatives by gaining 13 more seats, which puts the party at 247 seats against 188 seats for the Democrats. Republicans also took control of the U.S. Senate by gaining 9 Senate seats, thus putting it at 54 seats against 46 seats for the Democrats. So Republicans control both chambers of the Congress, which is likely to complicate President Obama's political agenda.
At the end of 2014, the Obama administration normalized the relations between the United States and Cuba, thus reinforcing the possibility that the Cuban embargo would be lifted, a policy opposed by Republicans who think that it would increase the Castro regime's tyrannical and oppressive influence on the Cuban people. In 2014 and 2015, many innocent African-Americans were killed by white policemen or white supremacists (including in Charleston, South Carolina, on June 2015), which divides the country, triggers riots and contributes to the emergence of Black Lives Matter, a movement fighting for the African-American cause. On June 26 2015, the Supreme Court of the United States legalized gay marriage. On October of the same year the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an agreement of nuclear non-proliferation on Iranian nuclear, is adopted, thus lifting US sanctions against Iran though it increased concerns among the American people since the lifting of US sanctions would allow Iran to earn the necessary revenues to develop its uranium in order to construct nuclear weapons, which would be a threat to international security. And on December 2015, President Obama ratified the Paris Agreement dealing with, greenhouse gases emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in the year 2020.
Obama's second term is also marked by an improvement of the economic situation through the decrease of unemployment rate. Job creation under Obama's presidency is mostly due to tax cuts for the middle class and small businesses, support to U.S. automobile industry and decreased imports of foreign oil and gas, thus reducing the unemployment rate to 5 % in January 2016. Yet, it's one of the slowest economic growths America has ever known due to increased taxes and regulations on the American people, businesses and energy industry, to a low GDP, to low minimum wage and to an increased national debt that almost hits 20 trillion dollars. In 2015, Obama has urged Congress to ratify a 12-nation free trade pact called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free trade deal that would lower tariffs and increase economic and trade relations between the United States and Asian countries in the Pacific region, except for China and North Korea, thus making America competitive in Pacific and Asian markets.
In 2015, national security concerns emerged among the American people due to multiplied terrorist attacks around the world, notably two attacks in Paris (January and November) and two attacks on the United States’ territory (the first one in Garland, Texas, on May 2015 and the second one in San Bernardino, California, on December 2015).
UWS:
Background, Part 2 :
Source : (Own modification, original image attribution: [https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/08/the-republican-rivals-gather-in-cleveland/400712//John Minchillo] via Associated Press)
Meanwhile, the 2016 US presidential election race starts. On March 2015, Texas Senator Ted Cruz becomes the first Republican to announce his candidacy for President of the United States. A week later, it was Kentucky Senator Rand Paul's turn. On mid-April, former First Lady, former New York Senator and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announces that she launches a second presidential bid, eight years after her failed bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. The next day, Republican Florida Senator Marco Rubio announces his candidacy for President of the United States, declaring that yesterday is over and that America must look to the future. In total, 6 Democrats and 17 Republicans are running for President in the 2016 election cycle. This high number of candidates among Republicans makes the 2016 Republican primary race the most wide-open contest.
But one of the most controversial candidacies among Republicans is businessman, reality television and real estate developer Donald Trump's candidacy who declared his candidacy in mid-June 2015 while declaring that Mexican are « rapists, criminals and drug dealers ». Donald Trump calls for a deportation of all illegal immigrants, plans to build a wall on the US-Mexican borders to stop illegal immigration and seeks to renegotiate free trade deals. Trump multiplies it's controversial comments, especially on John McCain's war hero status, and mocked disabled reporter with the following words : « Uh, I don't know what I said. Uh, I don't remember. » He also promises to fight terrorism by killing women and children of terrorists. Despite these controversial comments, Donald Trump rises in the polls for the Republican nomination and even rises to the top of all the 17 Republican candidates for President. This is mostly due to the American people's increasing fatigue towards politicians and political elites which, they believe, abandoned them. Donald Trump's rise is also due to his populist message. This anti-establishment sentiment is not only felt among Republicans : it's also felt among Democrats due to Vermont Independent Senator Bernie Sanders' candidacy. Sanders opposes free trade deals and unveiled an agenda more progressive than Hillary Clinton's by promoting a 15 $ minimum wage, free education and by making green energy development one of his main priorities. This agenda helps Sanders to become Hillary Clinton's main rival for the Democratic nomination.
The 2016 presidential race goes on through markable or controversial declarations, presidential debates, town-halls, rallies, fundraising events and visits across the country, mostly in early voting states in the primary season. While Bernie Sanders gradually reduces the gap between him and Hillary Clinton in the polls, Marco Rubio dominates the debate stages thanks to his strong debate performances, especially on his voting attendance record in the Senate, on Hillary Clinton, on economic issues, on social issues and foreign policy issues. Rubio's debate performances helps him to progress in the Republican primary polls by rising from 7th place to third place behind Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Rubio even edges his mentor and fellow Floridian former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (son of former President George H. W. Bush and brother of former President George W. Bush) when it comes to endorsements and becomes the favorite of the establishment.
As of January 2016, 12 of the 17 Republican presidential candidates are still in the race. Former Texas Governor Rick Perry, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, former Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, former New York Governor George Pataki and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham dropped out of the race due to their weak showing in the polls and their struggle to gain attraction and to raise money. Rick Perry endorsed his fellow Texan Ted Cruz while George Pataki endorsed Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham endorsed Jeb Bush. On the Democratic side, on only 3 of the 6 Democratic candidates are still in the race. Former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb and Professor at Harvard Law School Lawrence Lessig dropped out of the race.
The Iowa caucuses of February 1 2016 are getting closer and closer and all the presidential candidates are strongly and fiercely investing their efforts in this rural state in order to boost their campaigns. On the Republican side, it's a close race between Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio while the Democratic contest is announced to be a dual between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
UWS:
New polls
Nationwide polls
Republicans
Donald Trump : 43 %
Ted Cruz : 18 %
Marco Rubio : 14 %
John Kasich : 5 %
Jeb Bush : 4 %
Ben Carson : 4 %
Rannd Paul : 4 %
Mike Huckabee : 2 %
Chris Christie : 2 %
Carly Fiorina : 2 %
Rick Santorum : 1 %
Jim Gilmore : 1 %
Democrats
Hillary Clinton : 58 %
Bernie Sanders : 38 %
Martin O'Malley : 3 %
Undecided : 1 %
Iowa polls
Republicans
Donald Trump : 20 %
Ted Cruz : 19 %
Marco Rubio : 19 %
Ben Carson : 9 %
Rand Paul : 9 %
Jeb Bush : 5 %
Mike Huckabee : 4 %
John Kasich : 4 %
Carly Fiorina : 4 %
Chris Christie : 3 %
Rick Santorum : 2 %
Jim Gilmore : 1 %
Undecided : 1 %
Democrats
Hillary Clinton : 45 %
Bernie Sanders : 42 %
Martin O'Malley : 3 %
Undecided : 10 %
New Hampshire polls
Donald Trump : 30 %
Ted Cruz : 12 %
Marco Rubio : 11 %
John Kasich : 9 %
Chris Christie : 8 %
Jeb Bush : 6 %
Carly Fiorina : 4 %
Ben Carson : 3 %
Rand Paul : 3 %
Mike Huckabee : 1 %
Rick Santorum : 0 %
Jim Gilmore : 0 %
Undecided : 13 %
Democrats
Bernie Sanders : 57 %
Hillary Clinton : 34 %
Martin O'Malley : 1 %
Undecided : 8 %
South Carolina polls
Republicans
Donald Trump : 36 %
Ted Cruz : 20 %
Marco Rubio : 14 %
Jeb Bush : 9 %
Ben Carson : 8 %
Mike Huckabee : 2 %
Chris Christie : 2 %
John Kasich : 1 %
Carly Fiorina : 1 %
Rand Paul : 1 %
Rick Santorum : 0 %
Jim Gilmore : 0 %
Undecided : 6 %
Nevada polls
Democrats
Hillary Clinton : 50 %
Bernie Sanders : 27 %
Martin O'Malley : 1 %
Undecided : 22 %
UWS:
Marco Rubio's schedule in Iowa
According to a poll released by Opinion Savvy on January 29, Marco Rubio is getting closer and closer to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in the voting intentions in Iowa. So Rubio's presidential campaign decided to intensify its efforts in Iowa in order to win that state. The Florida Senator targets the Polk county (Des Moines' location), the Woodbury county (which seat is Sioux City), the Linn county (where Cedar Rapids is located), the Scott county (Davenport's county) and all the rural counties neighboring these urban counties.
Since agriculture is Iowa's main economic activity, Rubio promises, on campaign trail, to boost America's agriculture by cutting taxes for businesses, including tractor and seed companies, to help them to innovate and to manufacture more tractors and seeds in order to create jobs, improve agricultural technologies, ensure Iowa's and America's subsistence. This agenda is reiterated in an ad titled « Prosperity and subsistence » and that airs in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
« Prosperity and subsistence » advertisement narration :
Narrator :
In this time of economic stagnation, the American people, including farmers, are struggling to recover and to prosper. Many farmers lost their jobs and rising inflation raised the cost of buying agricultural products, which hurts agricultural businesses. We need to reverse this situation. Marco Rubio has a plan to help farmers.
As President, Marco Rubio will cut taxes for businesses, including tractor and seed companies, to help them to innovate and to manufacture more tractors and seeds, which will boost job creation, improve agricultural technologies, ensure Iowa's and America's subsistence, reduce the food prices through the reduction of inflation and reduce Americans' dependence on food stamps, which will reinforce their purchasing power and give them more access to food. That's how we're going to make sure that the American people will live better lives by finding good-paying jobs, fulfilling their food needs and accomplishing their agricultural activities.
Marco Rubio for prosperity and subsistence!
Marco Rubio : I'm Marco Rubio and I approve this message.
In an effort to attract Iowa's evangelical voters, Rubio's campaign broadcasts an ad that describes the Florida Senator's plan to defend the freedom of religion. The ad titled « Fight for Liberty » airs in Iowa and South Carolina.
« Fight for liberty » advertisement narration :
Narrator : Fighting terrorism is necessary not only to ensure international security and to save innocent lives but also to defend freedom of religion. In the Middle East, ISIS is persecuting Christians and Muslims who are not sharing their views and even beheaded many of them.
It's in violation of freedom of religion, an important wall defending justice, freedom, democracy as well as gender equity and an important element of the First Amendment to the United States Constitution. If we take military action in the Middle East, we will not only destroy terrorism and reinforce security as well as innocent lives but also save Middle East Christians from persecution, which will save freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, the right to peaceably assemble and the right to petition.
If you want freedom to be maintained and your values to be defended here and abroad, I'm asking for your support.
Marco Rubio : I'm Marco Rubio and I approve this message.
In an effort to attract Iowa voters who selected the economy as the most important issue, Rubio's campaign broadcasts an attack ad against Ted Cruz on his VAT tax plan in order to question Cruz's conservative credentials while describing Rubio's economic plan. The ad titled « Principled Fiscal Conservative » airs in Iowa.
« Principled Fiscal Conservative » advertisement narration :
Narrator : Iowa is a great example of America's economic prosperity and opportunity.
CNBC's list of "Top States for Business in 2010" has ranked Iowa as the sixth best state in the nation. Scored in 10 individual categories, Iowa was ranked 1st when it comes to the cost of doing business, 12th when it comes to business friendliness, 16th in education, 17th in both the cost of living and the quality of life, 20th in workforce, 29th in technology and innovation and 32nd in transportation.
While Forbes Magazine ranked Des Moines among the top 10 of the best places in America to do business, it ranked this city at the first place in 2010 and 2013, which means that Des Moines was described as the best place to do business in the United States. This is mostly due to strong educational attainment (with 36 % of Des Moines' population who has a college degree and 92 % of this city's population who possesses a high school diploma) and also because energy costs here are 22 % below the national average, the cost of living in Des Moines is 10 % below the national average and business costs here are 18 % below the national average. Economic growth here outpaced the U.S. as a whole by 68 % since 2010. Here is an example of this matter of fact : Des Moines is a major center for the insurance industry and has a sizable financial services and publishing business base. And Des Moines is the headquarters for the Principal Financial Group, Meredith Corp., Ruan Transportation, EMC Insurance, Wellmark Blue Cross Blue Shield, MidAmerican Energy Company and Firestone Agricultural Tire Company.
So Des Moines is a great symbol of America's prosperity coming from free enterprise and free market as well as ingenuity, hard-work and entrepreneurship of the American people. Prosperity does not come from big government policies.
But unfortunately, Ted Cruz seeks to impose a value added tax like they have in Canada and European socialist countries, which will be harmful to new and marginal business activities, make America a harder place to do business and plummet consumerism by taxing it, thus hurting consumers' purchasing power and decrease businesses' competitiveness and their ability to produce, to sell and to create jobs.
Obama and Pelosi said they're open to a value added tax. President Reagan opposed it. No wonder that conservatives called the Cruz scheme a liberal's dream because it makes it so easy to raise taxes.
As Marco Rubio understands, Iowa represents an example of the importance of making America the best place in the world to do business, a goal that requires fully utilizing our energy resources, bringing our debt under control, repealing and replacing Obamacare, making higher education faster and easier to access, promoting free trade, reducing the cost of doing business in America and cutting taxes and regulations on the American people and on business owners, which will bring a stronger purchasing power to our people and increase our businesses' ability to grow, to expand, to produce, to sell and to create jobs.
These are all policies that Marco Rubio will adopt as President of the United States. As a member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship and of the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, he is candidate who has the best experience to ensure job creation, to make America the best place in the world to open and expand a business and to lead our country to permanent prosperity and opportunity.
So Iowa, for the sake of a new American prosperity and a New American Century, vote Rubio on Monday.
Marco Rubio : I'm Marco Rubio and I approve this message.
Rubio's foreign policy speech in Cedar Rapids, Iowa :
Iran wants Israel's death, which means a genocide against Judaism. That's why we can't let Iran getting nuclear weapons not only because it will threat international peace and security but also because it will represent a threat to freedom of religion, a basic element of the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States alongside freedom of the press and freedom of the speech. That's why we need more sanctions against Tehran to make sure Iran won't get the necessary capitals to develop it's nuclear program. That's why we have to reinforce our defense relations with our local allies by creating an intergovernmental military alliance that I call the « South-Western Asia Defense Alliance » (that would include America, Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Jordan, Israel, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) not only to fight jihadism in the Middle East but also to increase pressure on Iran and prevent it from pursuing its nuclear program. We need strength and collaboration with our allies if we want peace and we need peace to ensure liberty's defense.
In the days preceding the Iowa caucuses, Rubio receives endorsements from the Des Moines Register and Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, which could help him winning Iowa. In addition, Colorado Senator Cory Gardner announced his endorsement to Senator Rubio and campaigns for him in Iowa.
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