JIERA Southern Special Election Tracker | June 30 - July 2, 2017

[JustinTimeCuber]

**NOTE: This post will not be updated live. See the post below for live totals and probabilities.**

You can also view individual votes on this spreadsheet (also includes totals, but no probabilities)

JIERA is back, and this time we will be covering the special election in the South this weekend. Of course, what everyone's paying the most attention to here is the Gubernatorial election to replace Former Governor NeverAgain for the final 3 weeks of his term. 5 candidates have filed for ballot access, and there is no overwhelming favorite.

Representative Leinad of Georgia (FED)
Chances of winning: 55%
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Background: Leinad has served in many offices since the reset, including the Presidency. After the upset defeat of the incumbent Senator in the April election, Leinad successfully ran for the House in the same month's midterm elections. He was re-elected easily in the June elections.
Summary of views: Moderate libertarian

Representative Peebs of North Carolina (LAB)
Chances of winning: 43%
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Background: Peebs is the current Dean of the House of Representatives, as she has served in the House for 11 months. She also is the Secretary of Federal Elections, Southern election administrator, and Registrar General.
Summary of views: Progressive

Citizen LibertarianRepublican of Florida (LDP)
better known as TheShadowyAbyss
Chances of winning: 2%
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Background: TheShadowyAbyss does not have significant experience in Atlasian office, but he intends to run for the Chamber of Delegates if his gubernatorial campaign is unsuccessful.
Summary of views: Center to center-left

Citizen Santander of Alabama (ACP)
Chances of winning: <0.5%
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Background: Santander was formerly a member of the Chamber of Delegates and briefly served in the House of Representatives.
Summary of views: Social conservative

Delegate JustinTimeCuber of Missouri (LBA)
Chances of winning: <0.5%
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Background: Although JustinTimeCuber doesn't appear to be running a serious campaign, running as a member of the "Lbaor Praty", he has been a member of the Chamber of Delegates since March, being re-elected in May. He is currently the Dean and Acting Speaker of the Chamber.
Summary of views: Gay Babby Activist

Ballot Questions:

Recall of Delegate Southern Gothic
Chance of passing: 97%
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Southern Gothic has not made a post on a Chamber thread since June 19.

Term Length and Legislative Composition Amendment
Chance of passing: 64%
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Read the text of the amendment here.

[JustinTimeCuber]

Gubernatorial Election:

Representative Leinad of Georgia (FED)
Chances of winning: 100%
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Representative Peebs of North Carolina (LAB)
Chances of winning: 0%
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Citizen LibertarianRepublican of Florida (LDP)
better known as TheShadowyAbyss
Chances of winning: 0%
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Citizen Santander of Alabama (ACP)
Chances of winning: 0%
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Delegate JustinTimeCuber of Missouri (LBA)
Chances of winning: 0%
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Round 1 vote totals:
✔ Leinad (FED) - 22
Peebs (LAB) - 11
Santander (ACP) - 5
LibertarianRepublican (LDP) - 3
JustinTimeCuber (LBA) - 3

Final round vote totals:
Leinad (FED) - 27
Peebs (LAB) - 16
Spoilt - 1

Ballot Questions:

Recall of Delegate Southern Gothic
Chance of passing: 100%
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✔ AYE: 20
NAY: 10

Term Length and Legislative Composition Amendment
Chance of passing: 100%
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✔ AYE: 34
NAY: 6

Last vote: TimTurner

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Progressive, huh? That's a complicated way of spelling "Legalize Gay Babby".

[JustinTimeCuber]

Progressive, huh? That's a complicated way of spelling "Legalize Gay Babby".

Oh, thanks for the correction. Fixed.

[JustinTimeCuber]

BREAKING: JustinTimeCuber and Santander have been projected to not win.

[JustinTimeCuber]

TheShadowyAbyss / LibertarianRepublican is projected not to win.

[JustinTimeCuber]

Both ballot questions are projected to pass.

What this means:
1. Delegate Southern Gothic will be removed from office upon certification of the election.
2. Since there are 10 candidates filed for election to the Chamber of Delegates in July, (which is greater than seven), the next election will elect seven legislators instead of 5.
3. The gubernatorial term and the legislative term will both be changed fro 4 months to 3 months.

[JustinTimeCuber]

To be very clear, the check marks on #SouthernChat may or may not represent JIERA projections.

[JustinTimeCuber]

We can project that Leinad will win the Southern gubernatorial election.