What would have been your prediction a year before each election

[Samof94]

Of elections I was aware enough to prognosticate, I had Clinton beating Romney in 2007, Obama beating Romney in 2011, and Clinton beating Bush or Rubio (depending on how early I am making the prognostication) in 2015.

Hillary ached like she had already won the nomination in 2007.  I did imagine McCain dropping out of that race too. 2012 was exactly what you said, while 2016 was Hillary beating someone else.

[pbrower2a]

Nobody was going to defeat Obama in 2012, at least after he had Osama bin Laden whacked. Losing incumbents (and those who refuse to seek another term for which they are eligible) typically create target-rich environments for an opponent.

Hoover had the Depression. The Korean War wasn't going well for Truman, and the Vietnam War perplexed LBJ. Ford never had any idea of how to campaign for the Presidency for which he was never elected until it was too late. Carter had the disaster of Americans being held hostage in Iran. The elder Bush had no idea of what to offer in a second term except more of the same when people were tired of it.

I would have predicted that Bernie Sanders would barely defeat Donald Trump in 2020.

[MATTROSE94]

Here are my predictions going back to 2004

2004:

President George W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY): 444 EVs (55%)
Former Governor Howard Dean (D-VT)/Former General Wesley Clark (D-AR): 94 EVs (44%)
Others: 0 EVs (1%)

2008:

Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN): 277 EVs (51%)
Former Mayor Rudy Guliani (R-NY)/Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA): 261 EVs (47%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

2012:

Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Former Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN): 351 EVs (51%)
President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE): 187 EVs (47%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

2016:

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH): 358 EVs (53%)
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY)/Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX): 180 EVs (45%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

2020:

President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 365 EVs (53%)
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): 173 EVs (45%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

I know that is is a bit early, but here are my predictions for 2024 assuming that Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump and opts to set down after one term:

Scenario 1:

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/UN Ambassador Pete Buttigieg (D-IN): 418 EVs (56%)
Fox News Host Tucker Carlson (R-DC)/Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS): 120 EVs (42%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

Scenario 2:

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/UN Ambassador Pete Buttigieg (D-IN): 289 EVs (50%)
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC)/Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R-TX): 249 EVs (48%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

Likewise, here are my predictions for 2020 if Donald Trump defeats Joe Biden:

Scenario 1:

Businessman Donald Trump Jr (R-MT)/Fox News Host Tucker Carlson (R-DC): 299 EVs (47%)
Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): 239 EVs (51%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

Scenario 2:

President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Businessman Donald Trump Jr (R-MT): 279 EVs (46%)
Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): 259 EVs (52%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

I know that Donald Trump has stated that he wants to serve as President until 2032, so it is possible that he attempts to run for a third term in 2024 if he re-elected despite the fact that he is constitutionally barred from doing so.

[DabbingSanta]

2020:

293-245 Biden

2016:

279-259 Clinton

2012:

287-251 Romney

[SilverStar]

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2019

[SilverStar]

2016: Rubio/Walker over Hillary/Warren

Rubio 301
Clinton 237

Hillary Clinton would never take another women as running mate,let alone Elizabeth Warren LOL

[Agonized-Statism]

2023

President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) ✓
Fmr. President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD)

I keep going back and forth between Noem, Lake, and Scott for Trump's VP. Things continue to get worse in terms of living standards and the march toward World War III and turnout drops, but equally so for Trump, who's been a spent force for a long time. The Republicans can't even keep their base together, and the wars abroad have enough people rallying 'round the flag for "muh rules-based international order". Two or three token states change hands à la 2004 but it's marginally Trump's worst performance to date.

2019

President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) ✓
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) / Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)

Actually the prediction I made on November 3rd. I remember assuming there would be a minor recession in 2020 but that Warren would be such an awful candidate that it would get thrown to the House, and Teflon Don would bumble his way into a second term because he'd just been that lucky so far. A little later in the month, I figured it was Biden's race to lose, then in December I thought COVID would be a minor scandal on the scale of Ebola or SARS, then in January when I was sick as a dog with "a really bad flu" after New Year's I thought we were going into a disastrous war in Iran.

2015

Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / HUD Secretary Julián Castro (D-TX) ✓
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) / Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)

Republicans start to mellow out a bit, and plenty of young people and progressives stay home with massive discontent over the global surveillance disclosures and the big important social cause of our time having already been won with Obergefell v. Hodges, but the Republicans' brand is still too tarnished. I assumed some fresh-faced Sun Belt libertarian type would win big in 2020. Not far off from the vague ideas I actually had about how things would go at the time, but with a lot more socially conservative neocon seething about those trends representing hopeless degeneracy.

2011

President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) ✓
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC)

Obama had already failed by that point with the jobless recovery, but Republicans had been discredited so badly that there was no way they were coming back. A lot of millennials who had supported Obama shift further left and turn to organizing outside electoralism.

2007

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) ✓

I would have been bullish on the War on Terror going on forever, but assumed McCain's insanity, lack of religious right appeal, and Bush's various pre-Great Recession failures would hand it to a hawkish Democrat.

2003

President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY) ✓
Governor Howard Dean (D-VT) / Congressman James Clyburn (D-SC)

The post-9/11 nationalist hysteria continues. Dean is an Elizabeth Warren-esque figure who's probably the worst possible representation for the anti-war movement and many prominent Democrats denounce him following another terrorist attack. The war expands into Iran.

[Mr. Smith]

1951: Eisenhower over Truman    (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson        (52-46)                   
1959: JFK over Nixon                  (same result)                               
1963: JFK over Goldwater            (72-28)                 
1967: LBJ over Romney               (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie              (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford                (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan         (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D       (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr           (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D       (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole               (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore               (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean              (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain            (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney          (54-44)
2015: Rubio over Clinton              (50-48)

2019: Trump over Biden (49-48-3)
2023: Biden over Trump (49-46)

EDIT:  I also waffled in 2015 with the possibility that Rubio pulls a Dukakis to Hillary's HW, leading to a 52-47 win for Hillary.

[Agonized-Statism]

1999

Vice President Al Gore (D-TN) / Senator John Kerry (D-MA)
Governor George Bush (R-TX) / Governor Tom Ridge (R-PA) ✓

I would have seen a dot-com crash coming and figured that the economy would be in an out-and-out recession by November 2000. Labor would finally revolt against the New Democrats. Bush's folksy Southern personality, faith, and "compassionate conservative" appeals to moderation have a Jimmy Carter-esque moral appeal amid growing moral panic and the Lewinsky Scandal- but, as seen with backlash to the backlash to the Lewinsky Scandal, the Northeast wouldn't really go for it.

1995

President Bill Clinton (D-AR) / Vice President Al Gore (D-TN) ✓
General Colin Powell (R-VA) / Fmr. HUD Secretary Jack Kemp (R-NY)

The neocons and paleocons go to war in the primaries. Plenty of the latter show up against Clinton in an anti-NAFTA revolt, but Powell is no better on the issue to plenty others. The map ends up looking weird and Clinton gets saved at the end by California.

1991

President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN) ✓
Congressman Dick Gephardt (D-MO) / Senator Harris Wofford (D-PA)

The Early 1990s recession is worsened by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the wars that result: in a cynical move to rally 'round the flag and settle old scores, Bush invades and occupies Cuba, which starts out like the Gulf War but ends up like Vietnam. It's another Republican win, but the cracks start to show with a full-fledged Midwestern populist revolt and a successful DLC rebranding from the Democrats.

[wnwnwn]

Lets remember it was before we knew the candidates unless they were incumbent presidents:

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5

[progressive85]

1959: Kennedy
1963: Johnson
1967: Nixon
1971: Nixon
1975: Carter
1979: Reagan
1983: Reagan
1987: Bush
1991: Bush
1995: Clinton
1999: Bush
2003: Bush
2007: Obama
2011: Obama
2015: Clinton
2019: Trump

[Comrade Funk]

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[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Interesting that i'm not alone in having not seen Virginia as a potential flip for Democrats in 2008 at all.

[Agonized-Statism]

1987

Vice President George Bush (R-TX) / Congressman Jack Kemp (R-NY)
Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) / Senator Al Gore (D-TN) ✓

Iran-Contra, the Farm Crisis, a big post-Black Monday recession, and a "second Vietnam" in an anti-drug, anti-communist crusade throughout Central America shake the country out of its Reagan Revolution fever dream. With Hart out for good, the Democrats' race is up in the air and Jesse Jackson surges in the polls. The rest of the field unites behind reluctant dark horse Ted Kennedy. The race ends up uncomfortably close because no one actually wants Kennedy, not even Kennedy himself, and sets the stage for the rise of a further-right demagogue in 1992.

1983

President Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Vice President George Bush (R-TX) ✓
Senator Gary Hart (D-CO) / Governor Bob Graham (D-FL)

Things are bad. Reagan runs a social issues-focused mud-slinging campaign unrecognizable to "Morning in America"- smugness was a thing of the Eastern Establishment. The Nicaraguan War has expanded throughout Central America and there is talk of bringing back the draft. Hart continues his surge and loses the election narrowly, but I would have seen some unexpected flips in the Midwest with the Farm Crisis that was obvious even before the Farm Credit System and the USDA were forced to admit a problem existed in 1985.

1979

President Jimmy Carter (D-GA) / Vice President Walter Mondale (D-MN)
Fmr. Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Congressman Jack Kemp (R-NY) ✓

This one would have been obvious by November '79.

Interesting that i'm not alone in having not seen Virginia as a potential flip for Democrats in 2008 at all.

I for one can be a little cautious about trends until they're proven once or twice in different conditions or they're super obvious.

[Agonized-Statism]

1975

President Gerald Ford (R-MI) / Vice President Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)
Senator Frank Church (D-ID) / Senator Dale Bumpers (D-AR) ✓
Senator Jesse Helms (I-NC) / Senator Paul Laxalt (I-NV)

Funny enough, November 2 would have been literally two days before Rockefeller announced he wouldn't be running with Ford and eighteen before Reagan announced his run, although I would imagine that he would want to wait until he had a better chance at winning the general.

1971

President Richard Nixon (R-CA) / Vice President Spiro Agnew (R-MD) ✓
Senator Edmund Muskie (D-ME) / Fmr. Governor Terry Sanford (D-NC)
Governor George Wallace (AI-AL) / Congressman John Schmitz (AI-CA)

The expansion of the Vietnam War into Cambodia, inflation, and then a mild recession drag Nixon down somewhat, but Democrats are unable to come back from '68 or overcome Nixonian shenanigans. Wallace goes for more of a nationwide rural conservative populist thing and pulls enough John Birchers in the West for Muskie to win the Northwest and get really close in California.

1967

President Lyndon Johnson (D-TX) / Vice President Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)
Fmr. Vice President Richard Nixon (R-CA) / Congressman Rogers Morton (R-MD)
Fmr. Governor George Wallace (AI-AL) / Fmr. Governor Happy Chandler (AI-KY)

In a bid to "cut them [Viet Cong] off at the source", but the actual quote has way more racism, Johnson invades North Vietnam. It actually makes the insurgency a hundred times worse, not to mention that the Chinese intervene (good way to put their own rowdy kids to good use) and the Soviets, while quietly critical of China's brinkmanship, start putting the squeeze on West Berlin again. Days before the election, the USAF has a rematch with the PLAAF by the Chinese-North Vietnamese border, and the mood is downright apocalyptic as US pilots strafe into Chinese airspace. At home, America is collapsing. The stock market crashes and there's a violent crackdown on the second Long, Hot Summer of Love. The various New Left forces are too undisciplined and disorganized to mount an effective opposition- the communes just stock up on canned beans and dig some makeshift fallout shelters- and the election ends up thrown to the House.

[Ragnaroni]

2019:

2015 :