David Hume
davidhume
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,621
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: 1.22
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« on: April 03, 2021, 10:12:22 PM » |
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Another good point to make is that trends are not forever. Trump's famous win in staunchly Democratic Trumbull County was not predicted by 2012 trends; indeed, the county trended Democratic in 2012. Reversion to the mean is a strong force, and most trends immediately reverse. Here is a map of which states trended the same way across Barack Obama's two elections:
Most states trended in opposite directions over the two elections. I expect Trump to have a similar pattern.
EDIT: Note that these actual strong trends for the most part were repeated in 2016, with the exceptions of Hawaii and Vermont.
Here's the same map, but for the two Trump elections rather than the two Obama elections:
I was very nearly wrong. In Obama's two elections, 34 states trended in different directions, and I expected this number to remain basically the same for Trump; instead, it plunged to 26. My prediction I thought was totally correct just barely came true.
4 states trended towards Democrats at the last four consecutive elections: Georgia, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington. Just 2 states trended towards Republicans at the last four consecutive elections: Arkansas and Pennsylvania.
PA? I guess you mean FL |
