2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes

[Person Man]

I believe that a Centrist third party will win in a landslide in 2024 after disasters from the right form 2017-2021 , and the left from 2021-2025

lol, maybe Huntsman-Webb?

I see that happening if Trump can't deliver but him or any of his underlings are beaten by 2024 ( Trump isn't substantially more popular yet everything is still R)

[Person Man]

The GOP can continue keeping elections close these next 6-8 years by upping their margins with white voters but they'll hit a ceiling at about 65%. The remaining 35% of White people are either too socially liberal or fiscally liberal to vote for them. This remaining 35% are city urban white folk, white women, winetrack liberals, and white millenials who have no interest in Trumps Republican Party.

The GOP then only has two options to increase their share of the white vote beyond 65%: moderate on social issues (and lose parts of their evangelical base so...not happening) or moderate on fiscal issues (and lose their libertarian base along with a lot of big money donors...which they also won't do). Basically they'll have no choice but to start doing better with minorities going beyond 2020 if they want to stay competitive at the Presidential level and with Trump leading the Party I do not believe that will happen. Trump did marginally better with nonwhite voters than Romney did but Bush performed much better with Hispanics and Reagan performed much better with black voters compared to Trumps performance with either group.

Millenials are a much more liberal generation compared to boomers. Millenials will be 25-44 years of age going into 2024 and boomers will be 60-78. Many boomers will have died off and more millenials will be consistently voting. The math doesn't bode well for the GOP in any way.

At this point, the GOP's last hope is that Generation X (born 1965-1980) and Generation Z (all born 2000 of after) both start trending Republican.

I don't see Generation Z trending Republican while the GOP is actively trying to undo abortion and gay marriage on the state level as well as openly trying to suppress minority voters (Generation Z will be the most racially diverse voting population).  If anything Generation Z will be even more Democratic than Millennials unless the GOP immediately moderates their absurd and vile positions on gay marriage and other social issues.

...but Pepe.