Why is North Carolina so stubbornly Republican?

[Suburbia]

Hasn't voted Democratic since 2008, why hasn't it moved Democratic like Georgia and Virginia has?

[EastwoodS]

I mean it’s pretty clear why it’s stubbornly Republican: it’s suburbs haven’t gone the way of GA, ILL, CA, NJ et cetera, et cetera..

[Pink Panther]

I personally think in 2008, Obama both supercharged black turnout and kept a good chunk of Conservative Rural Whites, with McCain unable to turnout his base. In 2012, however, although being the incumbent, the national environment was much less favorable to him, and since Romney turned out his base and cut into some of those whites mentioned above, he flipped the state. In 2016, although focusing a lot of her campaign on NC, Clinton overall ran a MUCH WORSE CAMPAIGN than Trump, same as 2012 happened, and Trump held onto the state. In 2020, Biden didn't campaign in NC in the slightest, cue 2012, and along with the incumbency, Trump held on. Even though NC has become more diverse and more Left-Wing folks move into the state, better turnout, Conservative Rural Whites flocking to the GOP, and Conservative Retirees moving to the state's coast has sort of neutered Dems chances at winning the state again. However, in all likely hood, there will just be too much Dems moving into the state for NC to remain GOP in the near future.

[jamestroll]

If there is one close state that I think was a great fit for the Trump coalition, it is North Carolina. 2020 may have given the GOP a confidence boost but the coalition in NC is fragile for the GOP and do not be shocked if it is the sole Biden or Harris pick up in 2024 and perhaps the only Senate pick up in 2022 for Democrats.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

NC does not have a massive urban center like Atlanta nor are its suburbs trending as hard to the Democrats as in Georgia and Virginia. The surrounding counties of Charlotte, the Piedmont, and other areas are still very much Republican. Raleigh may not be as bad, but none of those cities come close to the size of Atlanta.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Duke is right and kind of like Ohio, Democrats had a lot of ground to lose in rural areas still and that has blunted the impact of the gains that they have successfully made over that time span.

[Devils30]

Yep. The big question is can the GOP keep gaining in rural areas. If these gains stall out then population patterns might overwhelm them as soon as 2024. NC and WI flipping in 2024 would stun no one.

[Hope For A New Era]

The short answer is that the Obama 2008 coalition was uniquely perfect for the state, and that since then, competing trends have been almost canceling each other out.

[Del Tachi]

I mean it’s pretty clear why it’s stubbornly Republican: it’s suburbs haven’t gone the way of GA, ILL, CA, NJ et cetera, et cetera..

But Biden did actually improve in NC suburbs (Wake and Mecklenberg) compared to Obama's 2008 margin.  It really is just the case that North Carolina is still a much more rural state than GA or VA and, as a result, Democrats have actually bled a lot of votes there over the past decade.  I also don't believe North Carolina has been getting appreciably less White in the same way Georgia has.

[freepcrusher]

I mean it’s pretty clear why it’s stubbornly Republican: it’s suburbs haven’t gone the way of GA, ILL, CA, NJ et cetera, et cetera..

NC is still at the point where you have just one county anchoring a metro area. It's not like in GA where it's not just Fulton - you also have DeKalb, Cobb etc. If growth gets to the point where Cabarrus can flip dem - that should be enough. Also - how many votes do dems need to win Mecklenburg and Wake combined by to be guaranteed. I'm guessing 500K.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not we have Gov Cooper

[MT Treasurer]

There seems to be a weird misconception about NC in the sense that people think that it’s the rural areas that are keeping the state red by monolithically trending in opposite direction of the urban/suburban ones when it’s really the deep-red exurbs, most of which actually trended Republican this year, that are sustaining the state's R lean. Yes, the state does have rural/small-town areas that offer some encouraging signs for Republicans (especially in the Piedmont area, the Sandhills, and those parts of the state with a large proportion of Lumbee tribe members), but we’re already seeing the Democratic trend in places like Asheville and Boone spill over into other parts of Western North Carolina, including more rural/small-town areas (many of which are attracting more liberal out-of-state transplants, home to UNC, artsy, reliant on a growing tourism sector, etc.). The rural/small-town areas wouldn’t be enough to keep the state R at this point. Both GA and NC have had rural R trends, the difference is that Forsyth GA went from R+63 to R+47 to R+32 between 2012 and 2020 while Davidson NC went from R+40 to R+48 to R+47 during the same period; while Cherokee GA went from R+57 to R+49 to R+39, Randolph NC went from R+50 to R+56 to R+56.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think it's in large part because NC has so many moving parts. Republicans still have lots of room to fall in the cities, whereas Democrats have room to fall in some rural/black areas, and it generally always seems to cancel out. NC itself really hasn't moved very much to the right or left of the nation since 2008, it was just 2008 was a D wave year which allowed it to narrowly flip. If it does flip again in coming cycles, the coalition Dems win with will prolly look very different than how Obama won.

[DINGO Joe]

Randolph is a weird county.  It's like the donut of North Carolina.  It looks like it should be part of a metro area and it has growth all around it, but it doesn't grow and has very low educational attainment.  It's like the Staten Island of NC.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Technically, D's don't need the South

[Skill and Chance]

There seems to be a weird misconception about NC in the sense that people think that it’s the rural areas that are keeping the state red by monolithically trending in opposite direction of the urban/suburban ones when it’s really the deep-red exurbs, most of which actually trended Republican this year, that are sustaining the state's R lean. Yes, the state does have rural/small-town areas that offer some encouraging signs for Republicans (especially in the Piedmont area, the Sandhills, and those parts of the state with a large proportion of Lumbee tribe members), but we’re already seeing the Democratic trend in places like Asheville and Boone spill over into other parts of Western North Carolina, including more rural/small-town areas (many of which are attracting more liberal out-of-state transplants, home to UNC, artsy, reliant on a growing tourism sector, etc.). The rural/small-town areas wouldn’t be enough to keep the state R at this point. Both GA and NC have had rural R trends, the difference is that Forsyth GA went from R+63 to R+47 to R+32 between 2012 and 2020 while Davidson NC went from R+40 to R+48 to R+47 during the same period; while Cherokee GA went from R+57 to R+49 to R+39, Randolph NC went from R+50 to R+56 to R+56.

Yes, it's not really a rural issue.  The rural eastern areas that are moving hard right all have tiny populations and Dems are seriously overperforming in the far western mountains.  It's the swath of blood red counties north of Charlotte with 100K+ populations that are keeping the GOP on top, and they basically don't swing at all.  They have a dramatically higher population share compared to rural Georgia or Virginia. 

[Sol]

Randolph is a weird county.  It's like the donut of North Carolina.  It looks like it should be part of a metro area and it has growth all around it, but it doesn't grow and has very low educational attainment.  It's like the Staten Island of NC.

Randolph is very firmly outside of Greensboro's favored quarter, which is northwestward, so it only has gotten light exurban growth, mainly from High Point, which is on the border. It's really not too different from Davidson County, which gets its statistics elevated somewhat by being a little more heavy on suburban development in the northern third. Similarly, Chatham County's western portion is pretty similar to Randolph, but the east obviously looks towards the Triangle. Alamance is a bit different as well, since Burlington is an actual small city, and it has growth along I-40/ 70 as well.

The low educational attainment is probably the result of Asheboro's rather industrial economy, including but not limited to meat packing and similar industries. Siler City, in Chatham County, is similar.

[Chips]

2008 was really a perfect storm in NC.....And Obama still only won by just over 14,000. Obama didn't have really any cushion he could afford to lose and although it was close again, Romney flipped NC in 2012. The Dems have more room to fall in the rurals and the suburbs aren't trending for them as fast as some other states. Still, it's always close and the Dem could easily flip it in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am more confident than ever NC can replace GA as a D state, Jackson is a strong candidate

[2016]

I am more confident than ever NC can replace GA as a D state, Jackson is a strong candidate

Don't you get tired of your bonaheaded crap you continue to make everyone to believe?

Jeff Jackson is not going to beat Mark Walker, Pat McCrory or Rep. Budd in a Midterm Election. The late Senator Kay Hagan had the best Turnout in NC in 2014 and still lost.

You will have to wait until 2024 at the earliest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am more confident than ever NC can replace GA as a D state, Jackson is a strong candidate

Don't you get tired of your bonaheaded crap you continue to make everyone to believe?

Jeff Jackson is not going to beat Mark Walker, Pat McCrory or Rep. Budd in a Midterm Election. The late Senator Kay Hagan had the best Turnout in NC in 2014 and still lost.

You will have to wait until 2024 at the earliest.

I believe Covid is gonna be better next yr, we can't predict when Covid will leave but since most are getting vaccinated thanks to Biden not Trump, it's gonna get better next yr

[DS0816]

Hasn't voted Democratic since 2008, why hasn't it moved Democratic like Georgia and Virginia has?

It’s because the Democrats aren’t hitting their capable numbers for: the U.S. Popular Vote (with their percentage-points margins) and carried states.

In 2008, a Democratic pickup year, likewise Democratic pickup North Carolina was the No. 28 best state (of a carried 28 states) for Barack Obama.

In 2012, when Obama was re-elected, his states count was reduced to 26. North Carolina, having flipped for losing Republican challenger Mitt Romney, came in at No. 27.

In 2016, a Republican pickup of the presidency for Donald Trump, losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton carried 20 states. North Carolina was the Democrats’ No. 26.

In 2020, a Democratic pickup for the presidency for Joe Biden (who, in the process, unseated Republican incumbent Trump), North Carolina came in again at No. 26. Biden won 25 states.

(Joe Biden won nationally by +4.45. He needed a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5 in order to carry 26 states. A national margin of +3.86 was enough for 2012 Obama to end up with 26 states.)

There is some humor in this.