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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  1988-2016 Trends: A map/comparison/analysis (search mode)
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Author Topic: 1988-2016 Trends: A map/comparison/analysis  (Read 2369 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: February 12, 2017, 11:13:50 am »
« edited: February 12, 2017, 12:52:47 pm by MT Treasurer »

1988-2016 Trend map



States with the strongest Democratic trends

1. California (Trend: 23.8% D)
2. Vermont (Trend: 20.1% D)
3. Maryland (Trend: 19.5% D)
4. New Jersey (Trend: 17.8% D)
5. New Hampshire (Trend: 16.8% D)
6. Virginia (Trend: 16.0% D)
7. Delaware (Trend: 14.0% D)
8. Nevada (Trend: 13.5% D)
9. Hawaii (Trend: 12.9% D)
10. Florida (Trend: 11.4% D)

States with the strongest Republican trends

1. West Virginia (Trend: 56.2% R)
2. Wyoming (Trend: 33.6% R)
3. South Dakota (Trend: 33.3% R)
4. North Dakota (Trend: 32.4% R)
5. Iowa (Trend: 29.4% R)
6. Kentucky (Trend: 28.0% R)
7. Missouri (Trend: 24.3% R)
8. Montana (Trend: 24.1% R)
9. Arkansas (Trend: 22.5% R)
10. Tennessee (Trend: 19.5% R)
11. Alabama (Trend: 18.2% R)

States with the smallest trends

1. South Carolina (Trend: 0.2% R)
2. Alaska (Trend: 1.3% R)
3. Michigan (Trend: 2.1% R)
4. North Carolina (Trend: 2.8% D)
5. Oregon (Trend: 3.5% R)
6. Maine (Trend 4.7% D)
7. Rhode Island (Trend: 6.0% R)
8. Texas (Trend: 6.2% R)
9. Utah (Trend: 6.5% D)
10. Mississippi (Trend: 6.8% R)

National: 1988 → 2016: D +9.82

Alaska: R+23.3 → R+14.8  → Trend: 1.3% R
Alabama: R+19.3→ R+27.7 → Trend: 18.2% R
Arizona: R+21.2→ R+3.5 → Trend: 7.9% D
Arkansas: R+14.2 → R+26.9 → Trend: 22.5% R
California: R+3.6 → D+30.0 → Trend: 23.8% D
Colorado: R+7.8→ D+4.9 → Trend: 2.9% D
Connecticut: R+5.1→ D+13.6 → Trend: 8.9% D
Delaware: R+12.4 → D+11.4 → Trend: 14.0% D
DC: D+68.4→ D+86.8 → Trend: 8.6% D
Florida: R+22.4 → R+1.2 → Trend: 11.4% D
Georgia: R+20.3→ R+5.1 → Trend: 5.4% D
Hawaii: D+9.5 → D+32.2 → Trend: 12.9% D
Idaho: R+26.1→ R+31.8 → Trend: 15.5% R
Illinois: R+2.1→ D+17.1 → Trend: 9.4% D
Indiana: R+20.2→ R+18.9 → Trend: 8.5% R
Iowa: D+10.2 → R+9.4 → Trend: 29.4% R
Kentucky: R+11.6 → R+29.8 → Trend: 28.0% R
Kansas: R+13.2 → R+20.5 → Trend: 17.1% R
Louisiana: R+10.2 → R+19.6 → Trend: 19.2% R
Maine: R+11.5 → D+3.0 → Trend: 4.7% D
Maryland: R+2.9→ D+26.4 → Trend: 19.5% D
Massachusetts: D+7.9→ D+27.2 → Trend: 9.5% D
Michigan: R+7.9 → R+0.2 → Trend: 2.1% R
Minnesota: D+7.0 → D+1.5 → Trend: 15.3% R
Mississippi: R+20.8→ R+17.8 → Trend: 6.8% R
Missouri: R+4.0→ R+18.5 → Trend: 24.3% R
Montana: R+5.9→ R+20.2 → Trend: 24.1% R
Nebraska: R+21.0→ R+25.0 → Trend: 13.8% R
Nevada: R+20.9→ D+2.4 → Trend: 13.5% D
New Hampshire: R+26.2→ D+0.4 → Trend: 16.8% D
New Jersey: R+13.6→ D+14.0 → Trend: 17.8% D
New Mexico: R+5.0→ D+8.2 → Trend: 3.4% D
New York: D+4.1 → D+22.5 → Trend: 8.6% D
North Carolina: R+16.3 → R+3.7 → Trend: 2.8% D
North Dakota: R+13.1→ R+35.7 → Trend: 32.4% R
Ohio: R+10.9→ R+8.1 → Trend: 7.0% R
Oklahoma: R+16.7→ R+36.4 → Trend: 29.5% R
Oregon: D+4.7→ D+11.0 → Trend: 3.5% R
Pennsylvania: R+2.3→ R+0.7 → Trend: 8.2% R
Rhode Island: D+11.7→ D+15.5 → Trend: 6.0% R  
South Carolina: R+23.9→ R+14.3 → Trend: 0.2% R
South Dakota: R+6.3→ R+29.8 → Trend: 33.3% R
Tennessee: R+16.3→ R+26.0 → Trend: 19.5% R
Texas: R+12.6→ R+9.0 → Trend: 6.2% R
Utah: R+34.2→ R+17.9 → Trend: 6.5% D
Vermont: R+3.5→ D+26.4 → Trend: 20.1% D
Virginia: R+20.5 → D+5.3 → Trend: 16.0% D
Washington: D+1.6→ D+15.7 → Trend: 4.3% D
West Virginia: D+4.7 → R+41.7 → Trend: 56.2% R
Wyoming: R+22.5→ R+46.3 → Trend: 33.6% R
Wisconsin: D+3.6 → R+0.8 → Trend: 14.2% R
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 10,000
United States


P P P
« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2017, 11:15:20 am »

Will post some #analysis later.

For the time being, here are 2000-2016 and 2008-2016 for comparison:

2000-2016 Trend map



States with the strongest Democratic trends

1. Utah (Trend: 21.0% D)
2. California (Trend: 16.8% D)
3. Vermont (Trend: 14.9% D)
4. Alaska (Trend: 14.5% D)
5. Hawaii (Trend: 12.3% D)
6./7. Virginia (Trend: 11.7% D) and Colorado (Trend: 11.7% D)
8. Texas (Trend: 10.7% D)
9. DC (Trend: 9.0% D)
10. Oregon (Trend: 8.8% D)
11. Washington (Trend: 8.6% D)

States with the strongest Republican trends

1. West Virginia (Trend: 37.5% R)
2. Tennessee (Trend: 23.9% R)
3. Arkansas (Trend: 23.1% R)
4. Missouri (Trend: 16.9% R)
5. Kentucky (Trend: 16.3% R)
6. Oklahoma (Trend: 16.1% R)
7. Rhode Island (Trend: 15.2% R)
8. Alabama (Trend: 14.4% R)
9. Louisiana (Trend: 13.8% R)
10. Iowa (Trend: 11.3% R)

States with the smallest trends

1. South Carolina (Trend: 0.0% D/R)
2. New Hampshire (Trend: 0.1% D)
3./4. Arizona (Trend: 1.2% D)/Kansas (Trend: 1.4% R)
5. Massachusetts (Trend: 1.7% R)
6. Nebraska (Trend: 1.8% D)
7./8. Wisconsin (Trend: 2.5% R)/Minnesota (Trend: 2.5% R)
9./10. Florida (Trend: 2.8% R)/Mississippi (Trend: 2.8% R)
11. Montana (Trend: 2.9% D)

2008-2016 Trend map



States with the strongest Democratic trends

1. Utah (Trend: 15.3% D)
2. Alaska (Trend: 11.9% D)
3. Arizona (Trend: 10.3% D)
4. California (Trend: 10.2% D)
5. Texas (Trend: 8.0% D)
6. Massachusetts (Trend: 6.6% D)
7. Maryland (Trend: 6.2% D)
8. DC (Trend: 6.1% D)
9. Georgia (Trend: 5.3% D)
10./11. Louisiana (Trend: 4.2% D)/Virginia (Trend: 4.2% D)
12. New Jersey (Trend: 3.7% D)

States with the strongest Republican trends

1. West Virginia (Trend: 23.4% R)
2. North Dakota (Trend: 21.9% R)
3. South Dakota (Trend: 16.2% R)
4. Indiana (Trend: 14.7% R)
5. Iowa (Trend: 13.7% R)
6. Missouri (Trend: 13.2% R)
7. Montana (Trend: 12.6% R)
8. Arkansas (Trend: 12.2% R)
9. Michigan (Trend: 11.4% R)
10. Wisconsin (Trend: 9.5% R)
11. Maine (Trend: 9.1% R)

States with the smallest trends

1./2./3. South Carolina (Trend: 0.1% R)/Oklahoma (Trend: 0.1% D)/Oregon (Trend: 0.1% R)
4. Kansas (Trend: 0.4% R)
5. Mississippi (Trend: 0.6% D)
6./7. Alabama (Trend: 0.9% R)/New York (Trend: 0.9% D)
8./9./10. Florida (Trend: 1.2% D)/North Carolina (Trend: 1.2% D)/Colorado (Trend: 1.2% D)
11. Idaho (Trend: 1.4% R)

National: 2008 → 2016: R +5.16

Alaska:  R+21.5 → R+14.8   → Trend: 11.9% D
Alabama: R+21.6→ R+27.7 → Trend: 0.9% R
Arizona: R+8.5→ R+3.5 → Trend: 10.2% D
Arkansas: R+19.9 → R+26.9 → Trend: 12.2% R
California: D+24.0 → D+30.0 → Trend: 10.2% D
Colorado: D+8.9→ D+4.9 → Trend: 1.2% D
Connecticut: D+22.4→ D+13.6 → Trend: 3.6% R
Delaware: D+25.0 → D+11.4 → Trend: 8.4% R
DC: D+85.9→ D+86.8 → Trend: 6.1% D
Florida: D+2.8 → R+1.2 → Trend: 1.2% D
Georgia: R+5.2→ R+5.1 → Trend: 5.3% D
Hawaii: D+45.3 → D+32.2 → Trend: 7.9% R
Idaho: R+25.3→ R+31.8 → Trend: 1.4% R
Illinois: D+25.1→ D+17.1 → Trend: 2.8% R
Indiana: D+1.0→ R+18.9 → Trend: 14.7% R
Iowa: D+9.5 → R+9.4 → Trend: 13.7% R
Kentucky: R+16.2 → R+29.8 → Trend: 8.4% R
Kansas: R+14.9 → R+20.5 → Trend: 0.4% R
Louisiana: R+18.6 → R+19.6 → Trend: 4.2% D
Maine: D+17.3 → D+3.0 → Trend: 9.1% R
Maryland: D+25.4→ D+26.4 → Trend: 6.2% D
Massachusetts: D+25.8→ D+27.2 → Trend: 6.6% D
Michigan:  D+16.4 → R+0.2 → Trend: 11.4% R
Minnesota: D+10.2 → D+1.5 → Trend: 3.5% R
Mississippi: R+13.2→ R+17.8 → Trend: 0.6% D
Missouri: R+0.1→ R+18.5 → Trend: 13.2% R
Montana: R+2.4→ R+20.2 → Trend: 12.6% R
Nebraska: R+14.9→ R+25.0 → Trend: 4.9% R
Nevada: D+12.5→ D+2.4 → Trend: 4.9% R
New Hampshire: D+9.6→ D+0.4 → Trend: 4.0% R
New Jersey: D+15.5→ D+14.0 → Trend: 3.7% D
New Mexico: D+15.1→ D+8.2 → Trend: 1.7% R
New York: D+26.8 → D+22.5 → Trend: 0.9% D
North Carolina: D+0.3 → R+3.7 → Trend: 1.2% D
North Dakota: R+8.6→ R+35.7 → Trend: 21.9% R
Ohio: D+4.6→ R+8.1 → Trend: 7.5% R
Oklahoma: R+31.3→ R+36.4 → Trend: 0.1% D
Oregon: D+16.3→ D+11.0 → Trend: 0.1% R
Pennsylvania:  D+10.3→ R+0.7 → Trend: 5.8% R
Rhode Island: D+27.8→ D+15.5 → Trend: 7.1% R
South Carolina: R+9.0→ R+14.3 → Trend: 0.1% R
South Dakota: R+8.4→ R+29.8 → Trend: 16.2% R
Tennessee: R+15.1→ R+26.0 → Trend: 5.7% R
Texas: R+11.8→ R+9.0 → Trend: 8.0% D
Utah: R+28.0→ R+17.9  → Trend: 15.3% D
Vermont: D+37.0→ D+26.4 → Trend: 5.4% R
Virginia: D+6.3 → D+5.3 → Trend: 4.2% D
Washington: D+17.1→ D+15.7 → Trend: 3.8% D
West Virginia: R+13.1 → R+41.7 → Trend: 23.4% R
Wyoming: R+32.2→ R+46.3 → Trend: 8.9% R
Wisconsin: D+13.9 → R+0.8 → Trend: 9.5% R
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 10,000
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P P P
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2017, 01:01:21 pm »

A few observations:

1.) In all three cases, West Virginia was the state with the strongest Republican trend. From 1988-2016, WV trended 56 points Republican!
2.) In all three cases, South Carolina was the state with the smallest trend in either direction. It is eerily accurate in terms of how it captures the natural trend.
3.) Here are all the states that have trended Democratic in all three cases: California, Washington, Utah, Arizona, Massachusetts, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia. (8 states) No surprises here, except maybe Washington.
4.) All the states that have trended Republican in all three cases: Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Rhode Island (18 states) Rhode Island, Alabama and Kansas are probably the most surprising.
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