It's 2024: Which County is More Democratic?

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Highest median household income county in TN v. highest median household income county in MI. One trended strongly away from Trump (and was the only county in TN to go for Rubio in the primary), the other trended toward him (and went for him in the primary). One had 59% of its Democrats go for Sanders; the other only 39%. Currently, Livingston County is more Democratic. Discuss.

[RINO Tom]

Williamson County, TN will remain more Republican, of course.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm not familiar with Livingston County, MI, but Williamson County just gave two-thirds of its vote to the worst possible fit for a Republican nominee for the county- and did not have a single precinct vote for Hillary Clinton.  If Trump does well the first place he will win back in 2020 are these sorts of suburbs- and these are the types of places that would LOVE Mike Pence- he probably could get 75% of the vote there in 2020.  It gives nearly 80% of the vote to Marsha Blackburn (who is no moderate) every two years.  And, unlike other suburbs, it is very socially conservative, with high church attendance and having voted overwhelmingly to overturn Tennessee's version of Roe v. Wade in 2014 (even though it specifically said that there were no exceptions, including rape, incest, and when the life of the mother is in danger).  This county is not getting more Democratic, much less in a mere eight years.

And, Eharding, where do you think these very fiscally and socially conservative ideological conservatives would go if not the Republican Party?

[RINO Tom]

I'm not familiar with Livingston County, MI, but Williamson County just gave two-thirds of its vote to the worst possible fit for a Republican nominee for the county- and did not have a single precinct vote for Hillary Clinton.  If Trump does well the first place he will win back in 2020 are these sorts of suburbs- and these are the types of places that would LOVE Mike Pence- he probably could get 75% of the vote there in 2020.  It gives nearly 80% of the vote to Marsha Blackburn (who is no moderate) every two years.  And, unlike other suburbs, it is very socially conservative, with high church attendance and having voted overwhelmingly to overturn Tennessee's version of Roe v. Wade in 2014 (even though it specifically said that there were no exceptions, including rape, incest, and when the life of the mother is in danger).  This county is not getting more Democratic, much less in a mere eight years.

And, Eharding, where do you think these very fiscally and socially conservative ideological conservatives would go if not the Republican Party?

Whether he thinks this will happen or not, he WANTS them to become solid Democratic voters so that he can paint Democrats as a party of elites, which they oh-so-clearly are not now.  He would have fit in very well with past versions of the Democratic Party, and he wants an ideological heir ... he for some reason thinks a future GOP might be that, and he's determined to make that party system a reality.

The opposite of me, pretty much, problem is people like me aren't becoming Democrats to help fulfill the prophecy, LOL.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I just looked up Livingston County, and it seems that they are both solidly Republican counties that won't move significantly to the Democrats anytime soon.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

I'm not familiar with Livingston County, MI, but Williamson County just gave two-thirds of its vote to the worst possible fit for a Republican nominee for the county- and did not have a single precinct vote for Hillary Clinton.  If Trump does well the first place he will win back in 2020 are these sorts of suburbs- and these are the types of places that would LOVE Mike Pence- he probably could get 75% of the vote there in 2020.  It gives nearly 80% of the vote to Marsha Blackburn (who is no moderate) every two years.  And, unlike other suburbs, it is very socially conservative, with high church attendance and having voted overwhelmingly to overturn Tennessee's version of Roe v. Wade in 2014 (even though it specifically said that there were no exceptions, including rape, incest, and when the life of the mother is in danger).  This county is not getting more Democratic, much less in a mere eight years.

And, Eharding, where do you think these very fiscally and socially conservative ideological conservatives would go if not the Republican Party?

Whether he thinks this will happen or not, he WANTS them to become solid Democratic voters so that he can paint Democrats as a party of elites, which they oh-so-clearly are not now.  He would have fit in very well with past versions of the Democratic Party, and he wants an ideological heir ... he for some reason thinks a future GOP might be that, and he's determined to make that party system a reality.

The opposite of me, pretty much, problem is people like me aren't becoming Democrats to help fulfill the prophecy, LOL.

-You voted for HRC! That's halfway to "becoming Democrat"! You even call yourself a RINO. Yes, I'd be fine with Rubio and many Kasich voters moving to the party of less economic freedom. That way, the Dems could become a totally horrible party, including within it bought robotic hacks such as Romney and Rubio, and RINOs such as Kasich.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

I'm not familiar with Livingston County, MI, but Williamson County just gave two-thirds of its vote to the worst possible fit for a Republican nominee for the county- and did not have a single precinct vote for Hillary Clinton.  If Trump does well the first place he will win back in 2020 are these sorts of suburbs- and these are the types of places that would LOVE Mike Pence- he probably could get 75% of the vote there in 2020.  It gives nearly 80% of the vote to Marsha Blackburn (who is no moderate) every two years.  And, unlike other suburbs, it is very socially conservative, with high church attendance and having voted overwhelmingly to overturn Tennessee's version of Roe v. Wade in 2014 (even though it specifically said that there were no exceptions, including rape, incest, and when the life of the mother is in danger).  This county is not getting more Democratic, much less in a mere eight years.

And, Eharding, where do you think these very fiscally and socially conservative ideological conservatives would go if not the Republican Party?

-Thing is, Williamson County swung hardest to Barry O of all the TN counties in 2008 (though McCain was awful, I did not want a new era of New Deal liberalism, so I did not support Obama in 2008) and swung hardest to HRC of all the TN counties in 2016. Its voting patterns move in a manner of punctuated equilibrium. Currently, there is no doubt Williamson County is quite conservative. I just think it, like Hamilton County, Indiana, will go the way of DuPage several decades hence.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

I just looked up Livingston County, and it seems that they are both solidly Republican counties that won't move significantly to the Democrats anytime soon.

-But which do you think will be more Democratic in 2024? Currently, Livingston is.

[RINO Tom]

I'm not familiar with Livingston County, MI, but Williamson County just gave two-thirds of its vote to the worst possible fit for a Republican nominee for the county- and did not have a single precinct vote for Hillary Clinton.  If Trump does well the first place he will win back in 2020 are these sorts of suburbs- and these are the types of places that would LOVE Mike Pence- he probably could get 75% of the vote there in 2020.  It gives nearly 80% of the vote to Marsha Blackburn (who is no moderate) every two years.  And, unlike other suburbs, it is very socially conservative, with high church attendance and having voted overwhelmingly to overturn Tennessee's version of Roe v. Wade in 2014 (even though it specifically said that there were no exceptions, including rape, incest, and when the life of the mother is in danger).  This county is not getting more Democratic, much less in a mere eight years.

And, Eharding, where do you think these very fiscally and socially conservative ideological conservatives would go if not the Republican Party?

Whether he thinks this will happen or not, he WANTS them to become solid Democratic voters so that he can paint Democrats as a party of elites, which they oh-so-clearly are not now.  He would have fit in very well with past versions of the Democratic Party, and he wants an ideological heir ... he for some reason thinks a future GOP might be that, and he's determined to make that party system a reality.

The opposite of me, pretty much, problem is people like me aren't becoming Democrats to help fulfill the prophecy, LOL.

-You voted for HRC! That's halfway to "becoming Democrat"! You even call yourself a RINO. Yes, I'd be fine with Rubio and many Kasich voters moving to the party of less economic freedom. That way, the Dems could become a totally horrible party, including within it bought robotic hacks such as Romney and Rubio, and RINOs such as Kasich.

1) Sometimes, voting against an insane man goes beyond and says nothing about your political ideology.

2) RINO is completely sarcastic, making fun of people who use it seriously.  If you're a registered Republican and that's the party you choose to belong to and you actively shape the party's discourse, you are a Republican.  Period.  I probably have a more Republican voting history than you by a LONG shot, so I will not allow a Trump worshiper to redefine conservatism to me, thank you.

3) I know you'd be fine with it, it's your political wet dream.  Problem is, it ain't happenin'.  Never will.  The Democrats know it'd be electoral suicide to adopt policies conservative enough to attract these Republican "elites" you speak of, and they never will.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

I'm not familiar with Livingston County, MI, but Williamson County just gave two-thirds of its vote to the worst possible fit for a Republican nominee for the county- and did not have a single precinct vote for Hillary Clinton.  If Trump does well the first place he will win back in 2020 are these sorts of suburbs- and these are the types of places that would LOVE Mike Pence- he probably could get 75% of the vote there in 2020.  It gives nearly 80% of the vote to Marsha Blackburn (who is no moderate) every two years.  And, unlike other suburbs, it is very socially conservative, with high church attendance and having voted overwhelmingly to overturn Tennessee's version of Roe v. Wade in 2014 (even though it specifically said that there were no exceptions, including rape, incest, and when the life of the mother is in danger).  This county is not getting more Democratic, much less in a mere eight years.

And, Eharding, where do you think these very fiscally and socially conservative ideological conservatives would go if not the Republican Party?

Whether he thinks this will happen or not, he WANTS them to become solid Democratic voters so that he can paint Democrats as a party of elites, which they oh-so-clearly are not now.  He would have fit in very well with past versions of the Democratic Party, and he wants an ideological heir ... he for some reason thinks a future GOP might be that, and he's determined to make that party system a reality.

The opposite of me, pretty much, problem is people like me aren't becoming Democrats to help fulfill the prophecy, LOL.

-You voted for HRC! That's halfway to "becoming Democrat"! You even call yourself a RINO. Yes, I'd be fine with Rubio and many Kasich voters moving to the party of less economic freedom. That way, the Dems could become a totally horrible party, including within it bought robotic hacks such as Romney and Rubio, and RINOs such as Kasich.

1) Sometimes, voting against an insane man goes beyond and says nothing about your political ideology.

2) RINO is completely sarcastic, making fun of people who use it seriously.  If you're a registered Republican and that's the party you choose to belong to and you actively shape the party's discourse, you are a Republican.  Period.  I probably have a more Republican voting history than you by a LONG shot, so I will not allow a Trump worshiper to redefine conservatism to me, thank you.

3) I know you'd be fine with it, it's your political wet dream.  Problem is, it ain't happenin'.  Never will.  The Democrats know it'd be electoral suicide to adopt policies conservative enough to attract these Republican "elites" you speak of, and they never will.

-Donald Trump was quite possibly the most sane GOP presidential candidate mentally since Dole. Thinking such a winner and a deal-maker insane says a great deal about one's ideology.

Your Political Matrix score remains less conservative than mine on both dimensions! The chutzpah to deny your RINO nature!

I expect the Dems to adopt Woke Neoliberalism in full in a few decades, to reach the "suburban moderates (read: elitist hacks)". I would not be surprised if the next Democratic nominee openly calls for lower taxes for the well-educated, and the second one after that, the rich.

[Virginiá]

-Donald Trump was quite possibly the most sane GOP presidential candidate mentally since Dole. Thinking such a winner and a deal-maker insane says a great deal about one's ideology

Aaaand it's comments like that that make you impossible to take seriously. Of course you'll respond here with any number of weak rationalizations and so forth, so I'll preempt them with this: nothing you can say will make me and probably most others on this board believe Trump is "the most sane GOP presidential candidate mentally since Dole"

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

-Donald Trump was quite possibly the most sane GOP presidential candidate mentally since Dole. Thinking such a winner and a deal-maker insane says a great deal about one's ideology

Aaaand it's comments like that that make you impossible to take seriously. Of course you'll respond here with any number of weak rationalizations and so forth, so I'll preempt them with this: nothing you can say will make me and probably most others on this board believe Trump is "the most sane GOP presidential candidate mentally since Dole"

-Fundamentalism does not impress me.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

EHarding, I support free trade, care more about traditional social and economic issues and less about nationalism, and voted for Rubio in the Tennessee primary.  Do you think I should be a Democrat?

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

EHarding, I support free trade, care more about traditional social and economic issues and less about nationalism, and voted for Rubio in the Tennessee primary.  Do you think I should be a Democrat?

-You'd currently stand out like a cactus in a desert with those kind of social and economic scores, so, not yet. Wait a couple decades.

[RINO Tom]

EHarding, I support free trade, care more about traditional social and economic issues and less about nationalism, and voted for Rubio in the Tennessee primary.  Do you think I should be a Democrat?

-You'd currently stand out like a cactus in a desert with those kind of social and economic scores, so, not yet. Wait a couple decades.

Can't wait until you're wrong as , LOL.  It'll be a glorious day when you register as a Democrat where your heart belongs.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

EHarding, I support free trade, care more about traditional social and economic issues and less about nationalism, and voted for Rubio in the Tennessee primary.  Do you think I should be a Democrat?

-You'd currently stand out like a cactus in a desert with those kind of social and economic scores, so, not yet. Wait a couple decades.

Can't wait until you're wrong as , LOL.  It'll be a glorious day when you register as a Democrat where your heart belongs.

-Dude; look at my PM score. Does that look like a standard-issue Democrat to you? Yours is much closer! And I did not vote for HRC, but for the entire GOP slate!

And I will be right.

Also, MI has no party registration, and I'm not a loyal party hack. I retain the right to oppose unacceptable nominees (like Romney).

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

EHarding, I support free trade, care more about traditional social and economic issues and less about nationalism, and voted for Rubio in the Tennessee primary.  Do you think I should be a Democrat?

-You'd currently stand out like a cactus in a desert with those kind of social and economic scores, so, not yet. Wait a couple decades.

Can't wait until you're wrong as , LOL.  It'll be a glorious day when you register as a Democrat where your heart belongs.

Your claim that eharding should be a democrat is insane and delusional.

Also the two counties are like 3 points apart. Its not implausible for that gap to change in 8 years of minority growth and R trending in the Midwest. Plus I doubt the R hold on currently R suburbs is as iron as you seem to believe. Williamson itself trended more then 7 points D from 2012 to 2016, and trends like these don't happen in a single election.

[MT Treasurer]

RINO Tom is terribly afraid of the Republicans becoming the party of White working class voters and not "affluent" rich people. I don't know why you are so convinced that Eharding's theory is wrong and that Democrats doing well with rich voters was a one-time thing. I think it's a trend, but we'll see.

[RINO Tom]

RINO Tom is terribly afraid of the Republicans becoming the party of White working class voters and not "affluent" rich people. I don't know why you are so convinced that Eharding's theory is wrong and that Democrats doing well with rich voters was a one-time thing. I think it's a trend, but we'll see.

Yeah, yeah, you make yourself as clear as I make myself, even if I'm more blunt, buddy.  You want a different GOP than I want, and I'm confident my vision will win out.  We'll see indeed.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

EHarding, I support free trade, care more about traditional social and economic issues and less about nationalism, and voted for Rubio in the Tennessee primary.  Do you think I should be a Democrat?

-You'd currently stand out like a cactus in a desert with those kind of social and economic scores, so, not yet. Wait a couple decades.

Can't wait until you're wrong as , LOL.  It'll be a glorious day when you register as a Democrat where your heart belongs.

-Dude; look at my PM score. Does that look like a standard-issue Democrat to you? Yours is much closer! And I did not vote for HRC, but for the entire GOP slate!

And I will be right.

Also, MI has no party registration, and I'm not a loyal party hack. I retain the right to oppose unacceptable nominees (like Romney).

Can you explain why you dislike Romney but like Trump?

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/slacktivist/2013/04/12/its-easy-if-you-try/#comment-862488236

-Too establishment, too robotic, too phony, too heavily focused on cutting entitlements (which I'm very much OK with, but should not be the focus of a presidential campaign), too (probably) liberal, too unlikely to do the stuff I want done. Also, weird religion. Frequent user of bad tropes ("I believe America is exceptional", "Russia's greatest geopolitical foe") throughout the campaign. Uninspiring. Founder of Obamacare, and he expects us to believe he'll get rid of it? Political prostitute. Trump did not back down when big companies retaliated against him for being tough on immigration. Romney would do so in a millisecond. Was a puppet of big banks, as seen in his campaign funding sources. Elitist in every way. Also, anybody who can get elected governor of Massachusetts is extremely unlikely to be a conservative of any kind. So there was no reason for me to trust him with SCOTUS. Too much of an unapologetic Bushian on foreign policy. Many of the reasons I opposed Romney were the same ones for which I opposed Hillary Clinton.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I believe GOP should be the party of small business and upper middle class workers not blue collar workers

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

I believe GOP should be the party of small business and upper middle class workers not blue collar workers

-This thread isn't about what should be; it's about what will happen. In any case, there's plenty of small business and upper middle class in both counties; both are those counties with the highest median household income in their respective states. It's just the electorate of one is far more college-educated and swung harder against Trump than the other.

[RINO Tom]

I believe GOP should be the party of small business and upper middle class workers not blue collar workers

-This thread isn't about what should be; it's about what will happen. In any case, there's plenty of small business and upper middle class in both counties; both are those counties with the highest median household income in their respective states. It's just the electorate of one is far more college-educated and swung harder against Trump than the other.

Correct, and Bernie Sanders supporters are not switching parties; neither are movement conservatives.

And that's about the end of it for now.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

I believe GOP should be the party of small business and upper middle class workers not blue collar workers

-This thread isn't about what should be; it's about what will happen. In any case, there's plenty of small business and upper middle class in both counties; both are those counties with the highest median household income in their respective states. It's just the electorate of one is far more college-educated and swung harder against Trump than the other.

Correct, and Bernie Sanders supporters are not switching parties; neither are movement conservatives.

And that's about the end of it for now.

-Have you moused over "swing" on the county maps of each state in the Senate races?