Wild Prediction: Pence will not be Trump's running mate in 2020

[C r a b c a k e]

I get the feeling there will be a fracture between Trump and Pence.

[justfollowingtheelections]

My wild prediction is that Trump won't be the GOP nominee in 2020.

[BuckeyeNut]

My wild prediction is that Trump won't be the GOP nominee in 2020.

Yeah. More like Trump won't be Pence's running mate.

[Medal506]

Maybe he would take Ted Cruz instead

[Fuzzy Bear Stands With S019 And Israel]

Let's look at the history of these things:

1976:  VP Nelson Rockefeller declines to run due to conservative pressure (not problems with Ford).  

1944:  FDR dumps VP Henry A. Wallace for Truman, offering him the position of Secretary of Commerce as a consolation prize.  Wallace feuded with more conservative members of FDR's Administration, and was selected because Labor nixed SC Governor and Secretary of State James F. Byrnes.

1940:  VP John Nance Garner runs for the Democratic Nomination for President, not knowing if FDR is going to run for a 3rd term, but opposing the 3rd term on principle and coming out against at least some of the New Deal policies.  It's hard to say he was "dumped" so much as he resigned, and not so much as he opposed FDR as he viewed the situation as an open seat.

1864:  VP Hannibal Hamlin is replaced as Lincoln's running mate with Sen. Andrew Johnson (D-TN).  Johnson was a Union Loyalist and Lincoln and Johnson ran as the Union Party (not the Republican Party).  The Republicans viewed support of folks like Johnson as necessary for successful re-unification.  (The VP at that time was also viewed as a member of the Legislative branch moreso than the executive branch.)

There has been some drama surrounding renomination of VPs.  There was a constituency that advocated that Nixon dump Spiro Agnew in 1972, but Agnew was popular amongst the party rank and file.  There was an open movement to dump Nixon as Eisenhower's VP in 1956 and replace him with MA Gov. Christian Herter, but Nixon held fast.  There were those who advocated Reagan dumping Bush 41 and Bush 41 dumping Quayle, but this was not going to happen.

The likelihood of Pence being dumped from the ticket, or quitting the ticket is remote.  It will look bad for the GOP if either happens.  Congressional Republicans have an interest in Trump succeeding now.  But the main ingredient in a VP dump; the intraparty disagreement on outlook and philosophy, is certainly there.  

Still, I believe Pence will remain on the ticket.  (A) Trump needs him, (B) Pence has bought into Trump to the point where he can't easily back out, and (C) a running mate leaving the ticket has been, over time, a ticket to oblivion.