PPP national poll: Clinton 49% Trump 45%

[Mr. Morden]

PP national poll, conducted Feb. 7-8:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_21017.pdf

Who would you rather was President: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

Clinton 49%
Trump 45%

In the same poll, Barack Obama leads Trump 52%-44%, and Trump leads Pence 38%-30%.

[Mr. Morden]

men: Trump +6
women: Clinton +13
whites: Trump +9
blacks: Clinton +77
Hispanics: Clinton +2
other race: Clinton +28
age 18-29: Clinton +16
age 30-45: Clinton +6
age 46-65: Trump +2
age 65+: Clinton +7

6% of Trump voters now want Clinton and 2% of Clinton voters now want Trump.

[Reaganfan]

Funny enough, a 49-45 poll for Hillary could still equate to an electoral win for the President.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

men: Trump +6
women: Clinton +13
whites: Trump +9
blacks: Clinton +77
Hispanics: Clinton +2
other race: Clinton +28
age 18-29: Clinton +16
age 30-45: Clinton +6
age 46-65: Trump +2
age 65+: Clinton +7

6% of Trump voters now want Clinton and 2% of Clinton voters now want Trump.

I assume that Hispanics +2 for Clinton is a typo, because if not the top line numbers don't make much sense.

[Mr. Morden]

men: Trump +6
women: Clinton +13
whites: Trump +9
blacks: Clinton +77
Hispanics: Clinton +2
other race: Clinton +28
age 18-29: Clinton +16
age 30-45: Clinton +6
age 46-65: Trump +2
age 65+: Clinton +7

6% of Trump voters now want Clinton and 2% of Clinton voters now want Trump.

I assume that Hispanics +2 for Clinton is a typo, because if not the top line numbers don't make much sense.

No, the full racial breakdown is:

whites
Trump 52%
Clinton 43%

blacks
Clinton 87%
Trump 10%

Hispanics
Clinton 42%
Trump 40%

other race
Clinton 61%
Trump 33%

Racial breakdown of the sample is:
white 74%
black 12%
Hispanic 10%
other race 5%

[Vosem]

Yeah, all you have to do to be popular is to stop running for office (remember Hillary's favorables in 2013?). If she ever runs for office again, they'll crash back down to earth.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

men: Trump +6
women: Clinton +13
whites: Trump +9
blacks: Clinton +77
Hispanics: Clinton +2
other race: Clinton +28
age 18-29: Clinton +16
age 30-45: Clinton +6
age 46-65: Trump +2
age 65+: Clinton +7

6% of Trump voters now want Clinton and 2% of Clinton voters now want Trump.

I assume that Hispanics +2 for Clinton is a typo, because if not the top line numbers don't make much sense.

No, it really is +2, 42-40. Hispanics also were the only race to have a favorable opinion of Steve Bannon in the same poll, by a 17-point margin (39-22, while whites, blacks, and "others" each had net negative opinions of Bannon) and preferred Barack Obama over Donald Trump barely (41-40).

This is why you can't believe crosstabs in a single poll. The sample sizes are too small.

[America Needs R'hllor]

men: Trump +6
women: Clinton +13
whites: Trump +9
blacks: Clinton +77
Hispanics: Clinton +2
other race: Clinton +28
age 18-29: Clinton +16
age 30-45: Clinton +6
age 46-65: Trump +2
age 65+: Clinton +7

6% of Trump voters now want Clinton and 2% of Clinton voters now want Trump.

I assume that Hispanics +2 for Clinton is a typo, because if not the top line numbers don't make much sense.

No, the full racial breakdown is:

whites
Trump 52%
Clinton 43%

blacks
Clinton 87%
Trump 10%

Hispanics
Clinton 42%
Trump 40%

other race
Clinton 61%
Trump 33%

Racial breakdown of the sample is:
white 74%
black 12%
Hispanic 10%
other race 5%

This makes 0 sense. Makes me doubt the credibility of the whole poll.

[Mr. Morden]

PPP’s final national poll of the 2016 cycle was taken in late September and had an identical Clinton 49% Trump 45% result:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_92916.pdf

In that poll, the racial breakdown was:

whites: Trump +18
blacks: Clinton +80
Hispanics: Clinton +56
other race: Clinton +26

It also had Clinton doing better with voters under age 45 and worse with those over age 45 than this new poll does.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

men: Trump +6
women: Clinton +13
whites: Trump +9
blacks: Clinton +77
Hispanics: Clinton +2
other race: Clinton +28
age 18-29: Clinton +16
age 30-45: Clinton +6
age 46-65: Trump +2
age 65+: Clinton +7

6% of Trump voters now want Clinton and 2% of Clinton voters now want Trump.

I assume that Hispanics +2 for Clinton is a typo, because if not the top line numbers don't make much sense.

No, the full racial breakdown is:

whites
Trump 52%
Clinton 43%

blacks
Clinton 87%
Trump 10%

Hispanics
Clinton 42%
Trump 40%

other race
Clinton 61%
Trump 33%

Racial breakdown of the sample is:
white 74%
black 12%
Hispanic 10%
other race 5%

This makes 0 sense. Makes me doubt the credibility of the whole poll.

Having weird crosstabs is no reason to doubt the credibility of a major pollster. Crosstabs of 50 people don't always add up right. It's not a big issue.

[Virginiá]

Funny enough, a 49-45 poll for Hillary could still equate to an electoral win for the President.

How so? Trump barely won WI/MI/PA, and Florida was under 1.5% You think doubling Clinton's national PV margin would not affect any of those states? Where do you think all those votes would come from?

[Raccoon]

Ugh Clinton was a flawed candidate. Rightfully or wrongfully she has had a quarter century of negative press so that absolutely hindered here.

On the other hand Bernie Sanders is only popular because he comes off as authentic. His policies on trade would surely spur us into recession (like Trump).

I also stand by that implementing policies to make sure everyone has equal income will never work in practice.

[krazen1211]

PPP apparently forgot they released garbage polls like the ones showing lazy Hillary winning Wisconsin by 7 and Michigan by 5.

[RI]

This is pretty much the actual result. Apparently not many have changed their minds since November.

[Tender Branson]

Funny enough, a 49-45 poll for Hillary could still equate to an electoral win for the President.

This.

She was a trainwreck and still is a trainwreck.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

This is pretty much the actual result. Apparently not many have changed their minds since November.

[Cruzcrew]

Trump won despite Clinton's 2% lead in the popular vote and PPP in its final poll had Clinton up by 4 just like this one. This doesn't seem to indicate any statistically significant changes in how a Trump-Clinton election would look like today.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

PPP’s final national poll of the 2016 cycle was taken in late September and had an identical Clinton 49% Trump 45% result:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_92916.pdf

In that poll, the racial breakdown was:

whites: Trump +18
blacks: Clinton +80
Hispanics: Clinton +56
other race: Clinton +26

It also had Clinton doing better with voters under age 45 and worse with those over age 45 than this new poll does.

So basically she'd lose again. And some actually want her to run again.

[Fusionmunster]

PPP’s final national poll of the 2016 cycle was taken in late September and had an identical Clinton 49% Trump 45% result:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_92916.pdf

In that poll, the racial breakdown was:

whites: Trump +18
blacks: Clinton +80
Hispanics: Clinton +56
other race: Clinton +26

It also had Clinton doing better with voters under age 45 and worse with those over age 45 than this new poll does.

So basically she'd lose again. And some actually want her to run again.

Yep, because she'd make an amazing president. She wont run again though so the point is moot.