The Green Thread: Marijuana in the states

[politicallefty]

South Dakota was the real shock. It's winning 54-46 (a similar margin to most other marijuana legalization initiatives) in a state Trump's winning by 62-36. Why did this pass relatively easily while the initiative in ND two years ago went down in a landslide defeat?

It likes like the final margin in Arizona isn't going to be much different from the current 60-40 lead it has right now, a record margin apart from NJ. That's a huge shift from the 2016 initiative. As for NJ, current reporting is only 78% of expected votes, so we'll see if the current massive 67-33 margin holds.

[politicallefty]

My first thought with seeing South Dakota passing a legalization initiative was that it could probably pass anywhere outside the South and Utah. I'm not sure why the 2018 North Dakota initiative went down in massive defeat. Arizona, California, and Oregon all had initiatives defeated before regrouping and passing them within a few years. The 2015 Ohio initiative was fatally flawed for two big reasons: attempting it in an odd year, but more importantly the initiative was very poorly written. I'm surprised they haven't tried again there, as I'm sure it would easily pass.

Florida would be a very hard lift because of the 60% threshold for ballot initiatives and also the age component on this issue, which is very real. So far, the only states that have cleared that threshold are New Jersey (easily) and Arizona (barely).

I'm pretty sure the only legislature so far to legalize through the normal legislative process (as opposed to ballot initiative) is Vermont (and incidentally signed into law by Governor Phil Scott). I'm not really sure what so many Democratic legislators are afraid of. I have a hard time seeing any significant number of Republican legislators come out in support of legalization outside of New England or Wyoming.

[politicallefty]

Ohio takes a step forward with its marijuana legalization initiative:

Ohio lawmakers will consider a proposal to legalize marijuana in the coming months after advocates gathered enough voter signatures in support of the effort.

The Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol submitted 136,729 valid signatures as part of the state's initiated statute process, according to the secretary of state's office. That's nearly 4,000 over the required number. The measure will now be sent to the Ohio House and Senate, which have four months to act on the proposed law.

[...]

The proposal would allow Ohioans age 21 and older to buy and possess up to 2.5 ounces of cannabis and 15 grams of concentrates. They could also grow up to six plants individually and no more than 12 in a household with multiple adults.

Products would be taxed at 10%, with revenue going toward administrative costs, addiction treatment programs, municipalities with dispensaries and a social equity and jobs program.

[...]

If lawmakers don't pass the bill or pass an amended version, supporters can collect another 132,887 valid signatures to put their measure on the ballot. The process differs from the 2015 legalization effort, when voters rejected a constitutional amendment pushed by ResponsibleOhio that would have paved the way for adult marijuana use.

This seems likely to go before voters in November. I have a hard time seeing a proposal like this failing in reddish-purple state like Ohio. It would the be the fourth largest state to legalize marijuana if it passes.

[politicallefty]

An update on the Ohio effort:

Last month, state officials determined organizers gathered enough signatures (about 133,000) to compel the Legislature to consider a recreational marijuana bill they proposed. If lawmakers don’t pass it in the next roughly 3.5 months, organizers with the Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol can gather the same number of signatures again to place the issue on the general election ballot.

Speaking to reporters Wednesday, [Senate President Matt] Huffman, a Lima Republican and one of the most powerful figures in state politics, emphasized that no road to recreational marijuana will run through him.

“I don’t want anybody to misunderstand my position,” Huffman said, per The Columbus Dispatch. “I’m not going to bring it to the Senate floor. And if that means people want to go put it on the ballot, have at it.”

The House Majority Leader has said to media he doubts a recreational bill could pass, and Gov. Mike DeWine (R) has indicated he’d veto it if it did. The threat of veto, paired with opposition from legislative leadership, poses a towering roadblock for the bill through the Statehouse.

It will have to go to the people if it's going to become law. From what I've read, it seems like the petitioners have their work cut out for them. They'll have about five weeks starting at the end of May to get the necessary signatures.

[politicallefty]

Pretty hilarious in a state where, according to NYT, nearly 10% of the population has a medical marijuana prescription. Guess this is the down-side of the medical argument: the "I already got mine" issue. Might've been a lot closer - or a completely different outcome - if every pothead conservative in the state couldn't legally toke up already because of "tennis elbow" or whatever.

The medical system in California before recreational passed was basically de facto recreational. It seems like the medical system in Oklahoma is even closer to recreational than California's was.

It looks like the state to watch this year will be Ohio, if it gets on the ballot. It should have made the ballot last year, but there was some sort of settlement agreement that pushed it to this year (assuming they can meet the signature requirement, of course). Ohio is a state that allows for initiatives in odd-years. That marijuana initiative may be in addition to an abortion rights amendment that would enshrine Roe-style protections into the state constitution (similar to Michigan's amendment last year). As for marijuana though, the most recent polling from a few months ago showed 60% support for recreational legalization.

[politicallefty]

Wow, legalization basically performed like Generic Dem.  Will this be the new trend in marijuana referendums?

Five months ago, three statewide referendums in three GOP states did over 8 points better than the Dems at the top of the ticket.

I was curious about the poor result and tried to look up the most recent legalization referendum where support was below 40%. That would be Ohio in November 2015, which was also the last time a legalization referendum was held during an off-year election.

That seemed to be more about the specific proposal than about legalization itself. Apparently, establishing a preselected monopoly for cultivation in the state constitution proved to be quite unpopular. This proposal is a statute that seems like most of the others that have already passed in many other states. And, as I noted above, it's likely to share the ballot with an abortion rights amendment (that proposal is currently in the signature-gathering stage). I wouldn't count on low turnout if both initiatives are on the ballot in November.

[politicallefty]

Signature gatherers fell just short in Ohio, however:

A proposal to legalize adult use of marijuana in Ohio narrowly fell short Tuesday of the signatures it needed to make the fall statewide ballot. Backers will have 10 days, or until Aug. 4, to gather more.

Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose determined the Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol was short by just 679 signatures of the 124,046 signatures required to put the question before voters on Nov. 7.

679 short. Wow.

A new poll indicates strong support too:

The USA TODAY Network/Suffolk University survey, published on Wednesday, found that about 59 percent of Ohioans support legalizing the possession and sale of cannabis for adults 21 and older. Just 35 percent are opposed.

Democrats were the most supportive of the policy change, at 77 percent, followed by independents, 63 percent of whom are on board. Among Republicans, however, just 40 percent back legalizing cannabis.

There was also majority support among voters in every age group, except for those over 65.

[politicallefty]

Were they trying to get it in before the possible passage of the 60% threshold amendment, or was there some other reason they wanted it on the ballot of a low-turnout off-year election where the least supportive demographic would make up a larger share of the electorate?

Granted it might have still passed, but still.

Based on what I read, Ohio has a more complicated process for initiated statutes (one of the steps involves the Legislature getting a chance to act on the proposed legislation). The original goal was to put it on the ballot last year, but there were some legal issues and the two sides (the state and the pro-marijuana group) came to a settlement that allowed them to continue the process this year rather than start over from scratch.

The 60% threshold amendment applies to constitutional amendments, not statutes or veto referendums. The organizers simply want to legalize marijuana in the state as soon as they can. (It also seems to be in a prime location for a lot of out-of-state business. Ohio and Michigan are fairly unique in terms of being states in the eastern part of the country with a robust process for citizen-based initiatives.)

The low-hanging fruit is really running out on this issue. In terms of bypassing a legislature that refuses to act, you're left with these states plus Florida. Florida is unique in allowing only constitutional amendments on the ballot (whether it be legislative-referred or citizen-initiated, but nothing else), which as we all know requires a 60% supermajority. Of course, the additional problem with Florida is that the state AG is fighting hard to prevent it from even reaching the ballot and, so far, the DeSantis Court is happy to go along with her.

[politicallefty]

Signature gatherers fell just short in Ohio, however:

A proposal to legalize adult use of marijuana in Ohio narrowly fell short Tuesday of the signatures it needed to make the fall statewide ballot. Backers will have 10 days, or until Aug. 4, to gather more.

Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose determined the Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol was short by just 679 signatures of the 124,046 signatures required to put the question before voters on Nov. 7.

679 short. Wow.

A new poll indicates strong support too:

The USA TODAY Network/Suffolk University survey, published on Wednesday, found that about 59 percent of Ohioans support legalizing the possession and sale of cannabis for adults 21 and older. Just 35 percent are opposed.

Democrats were the most supportive of the policy change, at 77 percent, followed by independents, 63 percent of whom are on board. Among Republicans, however, just 40 percent back legalizing cannabis.

There was also majority support among voters in every age group, except for those over 65.

Wait, why are you if they have until August 4th to gather more signatures? If so, that's easily getting to its goal.

That's not a frown emoji. It's an unamused face emoji. They should've had it on the first attempt, that's all.

[politicallefty]

Apparently, Franklin County will provide enough signatures by itself:

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1691880026952683613?s=11&t=e1942nb...

Ohio has got quite the ballot in this odd year.

[politicallefty]

4405 valid signatures out of 6545 submitted (67% valid)

The voters of Ohio will decide in November, on the same ballot with the abortion rights amendment.

[politicallefty]

A new poll out of Ohio seems to confirm a different poll from last month. with legalization up 59-32.

While both surveys found that 59 percent of Ohioans back the reform, Fallon’s puts Republican support at 48 percent, while opposition is at 46 percent.

[...]

The measure also enjoys majority support across racial groups and all age categories except those 65 and older, though there’s still plurality support within that group as well.

Also interesting is that Republican Congressman Dave Joyce (OH-14, in the Northeastern part of the state) has endorsed the measure. Apparently, he's co-chair of the Congressional Cannabis Caucus along with Barbara Lee.

[politicallefty]

https://www.bw.edu/Assets/community-research-institute/october_ohio_issues_poll%20final.pdf

Do you think the recreational use of marijuana should be fully legalized in Ohio? Or should it remain against the law?

Fully Leagalized 58.1
Remain Against The Law 30.0
Not Sure 11.9

That's the same poll mentioned in the abortion topic. It's a year old, but has basically the same number in support as every poll this year as well.

Historically support for the yes vote drops as an election approaches, and that's especially so for marijuana legalization initiatives. Still, this is enough of a lead that yes should still win comfortably.

It looks to me like a mixed bag mostly as to how marijuana performs with respect to polling. Polling can be a mess, but it is interesting how steady the Yes vote is in the polling for legalization in Ohio (nearly 60%). If that were to hold and all of the undecideds vote against, it'd be a huge landslide. It would be nice to get some updated polling though.

I don't know what part of the state you're from, but what are your thoughts as to the lay of the land on both statewide initiatives?

[politicallefty]

https://www.bw.edu/assets/community-research-institute/october_ohio_issues_poll-final.pdf

Q11: Issue 2 is a proposed state law that would legalize the growing, sale, and use of marijuana for recreational purposes. If the election was held today, how would you vote on Issue 2?

YES  57.4
NO    35.1

Interestingly, it finds a bare majority of Republicans voting Yes.

[politicallefty]

Really weak anti weed campaign in Ohio despite the amendment having a bunch of woke stuff.

(A) As used in this section, "cannabis social equity and jobs program participant" means a person
certified as a participant in the cannabis social equity program by the department of development
under this section of the Revised Code

(i) The business owner or owners demonstrate membership in a racial minority group or show
personal disadvantage due to color, ethnic origin, gender, physical disability, or long-term
residence in an area of high unemployment;

(9) Encourage employment practices, in which an adult use cannabis operator can demonstrate a plan of action to inform, hire, and educate minorities, women, veterans, and persons with disabilities, engage in fair labor practices, and provide worker protections;

Not a lot of money on either side, apparently:

All told, the campaigns have spent just $1 million in the weeks before the Nov. 7 election, an unusually small amount for a controversial ballot issue and a fraction of the amount spent by the groups surrounding State Issue 1, the abortion amendment.

That's extraordinarily low. It is a statute though, so it can be amended or even repealed by the state legislature. Revisions to the law are probably likely. An outright repeal would almost certainly invite a constitutional amendment on the November 2024 ballot.

[politicallefty]

Is there a reason Issue 2 is an initiated statute instead of a constitutional amendment? Ohio has no rules on legislative tampering, and given the GOP's track record on messing with ballot initiatives, this seems like an obvious problem.

I'm assuming it was the result of the disastrous 2015 legalization proposal (which sought to create a marijuana oligopoly in the state constitution). Amendments also require significantly more signatures, so I think it's a less-preferred option unless absolutely necessary. To be honest though, when it comes to the Ohio GOP, I'm not sure a constitutional amendment would necessarily stop them from tampering. They have total control over the courts now too. Generally speaking though, I think most initiatives on marijuana have been statutes rather than constitutional amendments. From a strict sense of good governance, that makes sense. In the abstract, it makes sense that a legislature should be able to tweak a law as necessary. However, that does presuppose a legislature that respects its citizenry, something that you cannot assume with today's GOP.

This proposal was originally supposed to be done in 2020, but the pandemic obviously seriously inhibited petition drives. I think I already mentioned in this topic that it was supposed to be on the 2022 ballot, but there was a technical issue that resulted in a settlement with the state. So, here it is. Assuming it passes, I think the margin of victory will be relevant as to whether and/or what revisions will be made. A 51-49 victory would put a lot at risk. On the other hand, a 60-40 victory would be a powerful mandate. Ohio does also have a veto referendum process (i.e. people's veto), so any alterations could be put to a vote without resorting to a constitutional amendment. (Keep in mind that veto referendums are structured so that No means the law is vetoed/repealed.)

[politicallefty]

Probably the last poll on this initiative, but I haven't seen a single poll where this is even within 20 points. If that holds, it'd be quite striking. Only Arizona, Maryland, and New Jersey have seen recreational legalization get above 60% (with the latter two getting over 67%).

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1721677632259936354

[politicallefty]

Allegedly the Ohio GOP says they’ll repeal the legalization in the state legislature.

The voters delivered a decisive result, high turnout (close to the 2022 midterm) and over 57% Yes. Right now, it's in fifth place for highest Yes vote. If the margin nudges up just a little bit, it'll actually surpass California. Talk is talk though. I imagine the legislature would rather make some tweaks to the law than invite a constitutional amendment that puts the issue in stone. I don't think voters would hesitate, especially if it was a backlash to a legislature trying to overturn the will of the people.

[politicallefty]

Still not entirely convinced this would pass. Aside from Maryland, I don't think any other marijuana legalization initiative has ever gotten more than 60%, and that is what it would take in Florida.

As I mentioned several posts above, there have been three states where recreational legalization has broken 60% (including Maryland). After that, everything else is at least a couple points short. This is everything above 55%:

MD (2022): 67.20%
NJ (2020): 67.08%
AZ (2020): 60.03%
OH (2023): 57.19%
CA (2016): 57.13%
MT (2020): 56.90%
OR (2014): 56.11%
MI (2018) 55.89%
WA (2012): 55.70%
CO (2012): 55.32%

Maryland and New Jersey are unique both in their results and that both initiatives were legislatively-referred.

I do share your view that Florida seems like a very difficult state to get recreational legalization over 60%. We've seen time and time again that age is the top factor in terms of level of support. I think the problem is worse in a state like Florida considering a lot of its senior population comes from other states in the South. The Florida amendment seems to have some serious money behind it, though that can be a double-edged sword sometimes. ("Big Marijuana" can be a boogeyman if they're not careful.) It also seems to have some flaws, but I wonder if that's because of the strict standards regarding single subjects. Some states are a lot stricter on that than others and I do recall Florida being one of them.


Looking at the bigger picture, there aren't many more states where this can be done through the initiative process and some states have had bad results (though that certainly doesn't mean future attempts shouldn't be made):

-Florida: Already mentioned above. Requires 60% supermajority.
-Arkansas: Defeated 43.75%-56.25% in 2022.
-Oklahoma: Defeated 38.33%-61.67% in (March) 2023.
-North Dakota: Defeated 40.55%-59.45% in 2018 and 45.06%-54.94% in 2022.
-South Dakota: Passed 54.18%-45.82% in 2020, but struck down. Defeated 47.08%-52.92% in 2022.
-Nebraska: No initiative has reached the ballot as of yet. Attempt is possible in 2024.
-Wyoming: No initiative has reached the ballot as of yet.
-Idaho: No initiative has reached the ballot as of yet.
-Utah: No initiative has reached the ballot as of yet.

The last three states only have initiated statutes at their disposal, which would leave them at the mercy of extremely Republican legislatures. Idaho and Wyoming don't even have medical marijuana. With that said, the list above is all that remains as far as any possible attempt to bypass the legislature. Ohio seems like it was the last of the low-hanging fruit in terms of ballot initiatives. All other states not mentioned above without recreational legalization require action by their state legislatures.

[politicallefty]

With the results now certified and 57.19% voting Yes, Ohio has officially taken the number four spot away from California in terms of the overall results. I imagine it probably would have done even better in an even year (especially a presidential year). It passed in 42/88 counties, with two counties flipping to Yes when the vote was certified. (I modified my above post listing the states and results.)

The OH Senate wanted to gut the bill (reducing possession from 2.5 ounces to 1 ounce, eliminating home grow, and tripling the tax, among other things), but there was apparently enough of a backlash that they severely reversed course. No bill has passed the legislature yet, but it looks the only significant modifications will be as to where the tax revenue goes (along with a more modest tax increase). According to this article, the Governor wants to speed up when recreational sales can start. Most surprising is that they added a provision for automatic expungement, something that wasn't even in the ballot initiative.

[politicallefty]

People like Matt Walsh and Cernovich have been on a major anti weed kick lately. I wonder if the legalization movement will slow down for awhile. Based on Ohio Issue 2 results, including almost 90% support from under 30s, and over 2/3 support from millennials I highly doubt it, but something to keep an eye on.

If the right's propaganda machine tries to go hard against legalization then that hurts the right more than it does legalization. This is possibly the most unbeatable political issue I've seen in my lifetime so far. Nothing is going to roll back public opinion on marijuana legalization at this point.

The problem is that the low-hanging fruit is pretty much gone now, at least as far as voter initiatives go. Congress is going to eventually have to act on the issue of marijuana. When it does, I don't expect it to force states to legalize. However, it will have to act on the very significant issue of interstate commerce. Right now, each state is legally self-contained with respect to its marijuana industry. What happens if and when the federal government permits crossing state lines? What happens if a state tries to interfere (such as a state like Indiana interfering if Illinois wants to have deals with Ohio/Michigan)?

I made a map here to illustrate the current lay of the land (obviously, this does not show the differences between states that have legalized, but that's true of many things):



Obviously, the states in green are where marijuana is legal. The states in blue allow for voter-initiated constitutional amendments and statutes (except Florida, which only allows for constitutional amendments with a 60% supermajority). Orange represents the states that only allow for initiatives that are statutes, which puts them at the full mercy of their respective legislatures. (The Wyoming Constitution forbids the legislature from repealing an initiated statute for two years, though it does allow it to be amended.) The states in red require legislative action to legalize.

[politicallefty]

I honestly think we're getting to the point where even Republicans start losing to Democrats or weed-friendly Republicans in red states. The pro-criminalization side is dead as far as public opinion goes.

In most states, that's probably true. However, there are some major anomalies when you look at the map. In PA, you have the Republican state senate blocking legalization. Who the hell knows what's going on in NH? So much for "Live Free or Die", eh? In SD, the state government actively fought to overturn the initiative passed in 2020 (and they actually succeeded). And, most recently, VA Governor Youngkin vetoed a bill that would've established a legal market in the state and he used the same old talking points in his veto statement:

The proposed law, which would have created a state-regulated marketplace for recreational marijuana, “endangers Virginians’ health and safety,” Youngkin argued in his veto statement.

“States following this path have seen adverse effects on children’s and adolescent’s health and safety, increased gang activity and violent crime, significant deterioration in mental health, decreased road safety, and significant costs associated with retail marijuana that far exceed tax revenue,” he said.

I would not advise complacency when we don't even have a majority of states with full legalization. Marijuana legalization just got an Electoral College majority last year when Ohio voted to legalize (267->284).