The Green Thread: Marijuana in the states

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Monmouth poll in AZ tested the 2020 amendment.
September 11-15
420 registered voters
MoE: 4.8%

"There is a measure on the ballot that would legalize the recreational use of marijuana for adults 21 years of age or older and allow residents to grow up to six marijuana plants for personal use. Marijuana use would be banned in public and a 16 percent tax would be placed
on marijuana sold by licensed establishments. Will you vote for or against this measure?"

For 51%
Against 41%
Will not vote 3%
Don't know 5%

For comparison, here's the other measure they polled:

"Another measure on the ballot would impose a 3.5% surcharge on income tax rates paddy single tax filers making over $250,000 and joint filers making over $500,000. The addition funds will be used to hire and increase salaries of teachers and other school personnel. Will you vote for or against this measure?"

For 66%
Against 21%
Will not vote 1%
Don't know 7%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The D.C. Campaign to Decriminalise Nature has released two FM3 Research nternals on the magic mushroom decriminalisation initiative on the city's ballot this year, although not the full details of the first as it's just there for trends. The August 16-24 figures (polling 620 likely voters at a 4% margin of error) are:

Yes 60% (+9)
No 24% (-3)
Unsure 16% (-6)

The trends are with a "March/April" poll.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Suffolk University has polled the AZ marijuana ballot initiative:

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/10_2_2020_tables_pdftxt.pdf

September 26-30, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Support Prop 207 46%
Oppose Prop 207 34%
Refused 1%
Undecided 19%

For comparison, they've also polled the other amendment:
"Second, Proposition 208 is called the “Invest in Education Act.” This law would create a new 3.5% tax surcharge on individuals with income over $250,000 or married couples with income over $500,000 to increase funding for public education. Will you support or oppose this ballot question?"

Support Prop 208 47%
Oppose Prop 208 37%
Refused 1%
Undecided 15%

Edit: OHPI have also released a recent survey on the matter, although their question reads, "Do you believe that marijuana should be legalized for adult use in the State of Arizona?" as opposed to spelling out the initiative to be voted on.

https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/7453540/200908%20AZPOP/AZPOP%20Marijuana%20Crosstabs.pdf

September 8-10
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with July 6-7 poll
Trends calculated pre-rounding

Yes (legalise) 46% (-15)
No 45% (+13)
Refused 0% (but some voters) (n/c from 0% with no voters)
Unsure/Undecided 9% (+3)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The South Dakota Chamber of Commerce organised a No Way on A anti-legalisation campaign against two initiatives on the ballot (Initiated Measure 26 legalises medical marjiuana and Amendment A legalises recreational marijuana). This group paid for a poll showing them squarely on the wrong side of the public on both counts:

https://eu.argusleader.com/story/news/2020/09/18/poll-most-south-dakota-voters-support-legalizing-marijuana/5828238002/

Public Opinion Strategies (partisan sponsor)
June 27-30 (what are the odds they polled several times and gave up on waiting for better results to release?  )

Initiated Measure 26 - 70% approval
Amendment A - ~60% approval

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

In response to the OHPI poll showing support for legal recreational marijuana only leading by 1%, the Smart and Safe Act's campaign has released an internal for the AZ measure:

https://www.marijuanamoment.net/mixed-arizona-marijuana-polls-raise-questions-about-legalization-ballot-measures-prospects/

Conducted by Strategies 360
September 24-29
800 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%
With leaners, on prop. 207 specifically:

YES 57%
NO 38%
Completely undecided 5%

Edit: I'm adding the new DKC analytics poll of the NJ measure here so as not to clutter up the forum.

https://cannabislaw.report/nj-law-firm-brach-eichler-survey-reveals-65-voters-in-the-state-want-legal-cannabis/

DKC Analytics
Brach Eichler sponsored it but they are fully behind the measure so treat this as an internal
September 8-16
501 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with August 5-13 poll (for the same sponsor)

On S.2703:
SUPPORT 65% (-1)
OPPOSE 29% (+2)
Unsure 6% (-1)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FDU has polled the NJ initiative: http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2020/201009/final.pdf

September 30 - October 5
582 likely voters
MoE: 4.6% among likely voters

Yes 59%
No 30%
Refused 0% (but some voters)
Don't know 11%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Montana state university (Bozeman) has polled the initiatives

https://www.ktvh.com/news/election-2020/msu-poll-bullock-rosendale-gianforte-leading-slightly-trump-up-by-7-in-mt

September 14 to October 2
1615 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%

YES 49%
NO 39%
Will not vote on this 2%
Don't know 12%

Edit: more details here: https://helpslab.montana.edu/index.html

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

OHPI poll of Arizona:
https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/7453540/201005_AZPOP/PR_Arizona%20Public%20Opinion%20Pulse%20Toplines%20and%20Crosstabs%20(1).pdf

October 4-8
608 likely voters
MoE: 3.97%

Prop 207 (actually polled as opposed to just whether recreational marijuana should be legal)
Support 55%
Oppose 37%
Refused 1%
Unsure 7%

Prop 208 - education funding
Support 55%
Oppose 39%
Refused 0% (but some voters)
Unsure 6%

Monmouth poll of Arizona:
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_az_101520.pdf/

October 11-13
502 registered voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with September 11-15

Prop 207
For 56% (+5)
Against 36% (-5)
Will not vote on this 0% (but some voters) (-3)
Don't know 7% (+1)

Prop 208 - education funding
For 60% (-6)
Against 34% (+9)
Will not vote on this 1% (n/c)
Don't know 5% (-2)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The NJ amendment looks pretty tough to beat.

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2020-1016-stockton-poll-biden-booker-lead-trump-stronger-in-sj.pdf

October 7-13
721 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%

Favour 66%
Oppose 23%
Undecided/not sure 10%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.investorideas.com/news/2020/cannabis/10202New-Jersey-Low-Level-Marijuana-Convictions.asp

Another poll by DKC Analytics for Brach Eichler, which supports the amendment:

October 5-13
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with September 8-16

Support 65% (n/c)
Oppose 29% (n/c)
Unsure 6% (n/c)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Mason-Dixon poll of SD: https://eu.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/24/argus-leader-kelo-tv-south-dakota-marijuana-poll/6012860002/

October 19-21
625 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Medicinal marijuana referendum
Yes 74%
No 23%
Undecided 3%

Recreational marijuana referendum
Yes 51%
No 44%
Undecided 5%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

OH Predictive Insights polled for Arizona: https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/7453540/Arizona%20Public%20Opinion%20Pulse%20(AZPOP)%20Toplines%20and%20Crosstabs%20(2).pdf

October 22-25
716 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%
Changes with October 4-8

Support 60% (+5)
Oppose 36% (-1)
Refused 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Unsure 4% (-3)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14k1Rtcxamdn-4xUFAPpIcTAzAaRHala0wAAlnEUJy5E/edit#gid=0

NJ Rutgers-Eagleton poll of the marijuana initiative:

October 19-24
861 likely voters
MoE: 4%

For 61%
Against 34%
Don't know 5%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Nielson Brothers polling of SD:

https://www.southdacola.com/blog/2020/11/survey-nielson-brothers-polling-nbp-statewide-survey-october-24-28-2020/

Oct 24-28

Medical marijuana
462 likely voters, MoE: 4.61%

For 57
Against 33
Unsure 9

Recreational marijuana
455 likely voters, MoE: 4.59%

For 48
Against 43
Unsure 8

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Looks like every legal marijuana ballot question passed. Nice.

Witnesses 2020

The electorate: Yeah. I'm hitting the blunt.