The Green Thread: Marijuana in the states

[Person Man]

Basically it’s only a matter of time with New Hampshire, Hawaii, Delaware, and Maryland. Are there any more purple states that have referendums? Or are we going to have wait 10 or 15 years for big urban southern states?

[Person Man]

Wow, legalization basically performed like Generic Dem.  Will this be the new trend in marijuana referendums?

It outperformed by like 10-12%. Probably on average similar to abortion.

[Person Man]

Can we sticky the current map at the top of this thread?

[Person Man]

Minnesota Senate just passed the bill on a pure party-line vote.

Does it now go straight to Walz’s desk and he has made the appropriate assurances

[Person Man]

Minnesota Senate just passed the bill on a pure party-line vote.

Does it now go straight to Walz’s desk and he has made the appropriate assurances

Both bills have to go to a conference committee first to create a reconciled bill and be passed by both chambers again. Then that bill goes to Walz.

Hopefully it gets done on time.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/andrewjtobias/status/1707071429953380679?s=46

Historically support for the yes vote drops as an election approaches, and that's especially so for marijuana legalization initiatives. Still, this is enough of a lead that yes should still win comfortably.

It’ll probably fit  close with the August results. Maybe the abortion thing will score 2% lower.

[Person Man]

Really weak anti weed campaign in Ohio despite the amendment having a bunch of woke stuff.

(A) As used in this section, "cannabis social equity and jobs program participant" means a person
certified as a participant in the cannabis social equity program by the department of development
under this section of the Revised Code

(i) The business owner or owners demonstrate membership in a racial minority group or show
personal disadvantage due to color, ethnic origin, gender, physical disability, or long-term
residence in an area of high unemployment;

(9) Encourage employment practices, in which an adult use cannabis operator can demonstrate a plan of action to inform, hire, and educate minorities, women, veterans, and persons with disabilities, engage in fair labor practices, and provide worker protections;

Not a lot of money on either side, apparently:

All told, the campaigns have spent just $1 million in the weeks before the Nov. 7 election, an unusually small amount for a controversial ballot issue and a fraction of the amount spent by the groups surrounding State Issue 1, the abortion amendment.

That's extraordinarily low. It is a statute though, so it can be amended or even repealed by the state legislature. Revisions to the law are probably likely. An outright repeal would almost certainly invite a constitutional amendment on the November 2024 ballot.

That kind of makes sense to do that, actually.

[Person Man]

Is there a reason Issue 2 is an initiated statute instead of a constitutional amendment? Ohio has no rules on legislative tampering, and given the GOP's track record on messing with ballot initiatives, this seems like an obvious problem.

My guess is to see if the legislature will try to touch it and force an amendment during an election year. Basically as something that can be used twice.

[Person Man]

Still not entirely convinced this would pass. Aside from Maryland, I don't think any other marijuana legalization initiative has ever gotten more than 60%, and that is what it would take in Florida.

As I mentioned several posts above, there have been three states where recreational legalization has broken 60% (including Maryland). After that, everything else is at least a couple points short. This is everything above 55%:

MD (2022): 67.20%
NJ (2020): 67.08%
AZ (2020): 60.03%
CA (2016): 57.13%
OH (2023): 56.97%*
MT (2020): 56.90%
OR (2014): 56.11%
MI (2018) 55.89%
WA (2012): 55.70%
CO (2012): 55.32%

*Results are unofficial and obviously will likely change with the official tally.

Maryland and New Jersey are unique both in their results and that both initiatives were legislatively-referred.

I do share your view that Florida seems like a very difficult state to get recreational legalization over 60%. We've seen time and time again that age is the top factor in terms of level of support. I think the problem is worse in a state like Florida considering a lot of its senior population comes from other states in the South. The Florida amendment seems to have some serious money behind it, though that can be a double-edged sword sometimes. ("Big Marijuana" can be a boogeyman if they're not careful.) It also seems to have some flaws, but I wonder if that's because of the strict standards regarding single subjects. Some states are a lot stricter on that than others and I do recall Florida being one of them.


Looking at the bigger picture, there aren't many more states where this can be done through the initiative process and some states have had bad results (though that certainly doesn't mean future attempts shouldn't be made):

-Florida: Already mentioned above. Requires 60% supermajority.
-Arkansas: Defeated 43.75%-56.25% in 2022.
-Oklahoma: Defeated 38.33%-61.67% in (March) 2023.
-North Dakota: Defeated 40.55%-59.45% in 2018 and 45.06%-54.94% in 2022.
-South Dakota: Passed 54.18%-45.82% in 2020, but struck down. Defeated 47.08%-52.92% in 2022.
-Nebraska: No initiative has reached the ballot as of yet. Attempt is possible in 2024.
-Wyoming: No initiative has reached the ballot as of yet.
-Idaho: No initiative has reached the ballot as of yet.
-Utah: No initiative has reached the ballot as of yet.

The last three states only have initiated statutes at their disposal, which would leave them at the mercy of extremely Republican legislatures. Idaho and Wyoming don't even have medical marijuana. With that said, the list above is all that remains as far as any possible attempt to bypass the legislature. Ohio seems like it was the last of the low-hanging fruit in terms of ballot initiatives. All other states not mentioned above without recreational legalization require action by their state legislatures.

I think that the Dakotas will eventually pass it and that Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin will eventually get a D trifecta. Especially with liberal courts and a potential Hump presidency.

[Person Man]

Still not entirely convinced this would pass. Aside from Maryland, I don't think any other marijuana legalization initiative has ever gotten more than 60%, and that is what it would take in Florida.

As I mentioned several posts above, there have been three states where recreational legalization has broken 60% (including Maryland). After that, everything else is at least a couple points short. This is everything above 55%:

MD (2022): 67.20%
NJ (2020): 67.08%
AZ (2020): 60.03%
CA (2016): 57.13%
OH (2023): 56.97%*
MT (2020): 56.90%
OR (2014): 56.11%
MI (2018) 55.89%
WA (2012): 55.70%
CO (2012): 55.32%

*Results are unofficial and obviously will likely change with the official tally.

Maryland and New Jersey are unique both in their results and that both initiatives were legislatively-referred.

I do share your view that Florida seems like a very difficult state to get recreational legalization over 60%. We've seen time and time again that age is the top factor in terms of level of support. I think the problem is worse in a state like Florida considering a lot of its senior population comes from other states in the South. The Florida amendment seems to have some serious money behind it, though that can be a double-edged sword sometimes. ("Big Marijuana" can be a boogeyman if they're not careful.) It also seems to have some flaws, but I wonder if that's because of the strict standards regarding single subjects. Some states are a lot stricter on that than others and I do recall Florida being one of them.


Looking at the bigger picture, there aren't many more states where this can be done through the initiative process and some states have had bad results (though that certainly doesn't mean future attempts shouldn't be made):

-Florida: Already mentioned above. Requires 60% supermajority.
-Arkansas: Defeated 43.75%-56.25% in 2022.
-Oklahoma: Defeated 38.33%-61.67% in (March) 2023.
-North Dakota: Defeated 40.55%-59.45% in 2018 and 45.06%-54.94% in 2022.
-South Dakota: Passed 54.18%-45.82% in 2020, but struck down. Defeated 47.08%-52.92% in 2022.
-Nebraska: No initiative has reached the ballot as of yet. Attempt is possible in 2024.
-Wyoming: No initiative has reached the ballot as of yet.
-Idaho: No initiative has reached the ballot as of yet.
-Utah: No initiative has reached the ballot as of yet.

The last three states only have initiated statutes at their disposal, which would leave them at the mercy of extremely Republican legislatures. Idaho and Wyoming don't even have medical marijuana. With that said, the list above is all that remains as far as any possible attempt to bypass the legislature. Ohio seems like it was the last of the low-hanging fruit in terms of ballot initiatives. All other states not mentioned above without recreational legalization require action by their state legislatures.

I think that the Dakotas will eventually pass it and that Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin will eventually get a D trifecta. Especially with liberal courts and a potential Hump presidency.

I would love for someone to challenge marijuana prohibition in Wisconsin to the state Supreme Court.

Or that the gerrymander will be broken and Democrats will get a trifecta in a Trump midterm.