The Green Thread: Marijuana in the states

[NOVA Green]

Tulsa County has now flipped to NO with 73% of precincts reporting.

NO is killing it in Northern and Southern Oklahoma County.

YES votes are strongest in places closest to Oklahoma State University and some precincts North of "Downtown", if my brief survey of precinct results, census tracts, and neighborhood mapping is correct.

[walleye26]

Still slightly difficult to read the Oklahoma County results with so many precincts outstanding...

It does appear that YES overperformed county vote % in the most heavily African-American census tracts, based upon precincts reporting thus far.

Does it seem like there are more “yes” or “no” areas left to count?

[NOVA Green]

Now the only suspense remaining is will Oklahoma County vote YES or flip to NO...

226/290 precincts reporting:

YES--- 41,236
NO---  40,219

We have some precincts on the Westside outstanding neighboring "Weedie" precincts, handful on the Northside which are a bit mixed, some big looking rural type precincts on the far Eastside likely without tons of population, and a few other miscellaneous precincts floating around.

Any bets if the "Anti Weed" crew will sweep all counties in OK?

[NOVA Green]

Still slightly difficult to read the Oklahoma County results with so many precincts outstanding...

It does appear that YES overperformed county vote % in the most heavily African-American census tracts, based upon precincts reporting thus far.

Does it seem like there are more “yes” or “no” areas left to count?

Apologies was busy looking at some numbers and working on my Oklahoma County post, so didn't see this until after had finished posting.



Wasn't prepared for this election, let alone matching it against some of the other precinct data sets I have, since after all elections involving things like "weed", "abortion", etc aren't typically something that is collected.

Even trying to match against '12, '16, and '20 PRES precinct results for a few of the largest counties isn't something to easily prepare for, even if I had been, let alone not necessarily actionable, especially within the context of what appears to be a very low TO SE.

Your guess is as good as mine.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

No 58-60% sounds about right. Chances may have been low to begin with, but it was DOA as soon as it was moved to some random March odd-year election.

Not as sure that applies anymore.  The left has been overrepresented in pretty much all special elections since Trump.

You're right. I keep forgetting that that's a fairly recent shift.

I'm still predicting No to prevail by around 15-20%

Starting to think my original assumption was correct.

[NOVA Green]

Oklahoma County update with discrepancies...

Looking like precinct map % are ahead of total county %?  (263/290 precincts reporting)

YES: 49.82%
NO: 50.18%

State Map is showing: (263/290)

YES:  47,511   (50.2%)
NO:   47,108   (49.8%)

Thinking there might be a precinct miscal on either side?

[Adam Griffin]

Pretty hilarious in a state where, according to NYT, nearly 10% of the population has a medical marijuana prescription. Guess this is the down-side of the medical argument: the "I already got mine" issue. Might've been a lot closer - or a completely different outcome - if every pothead conservative in the state couldn't legally toke up already because of "tennis elbow" or whatever.

[Comrade Funk]

Gonna guess the mean voter is an 80 year old rabid Christian.

[NOVA Green]

Pretty hilarious in a state where, according to NYT, nearly 10% of the population has a medical marijuana prescription. Guess this is the down-side of the medical argument: the "I already got mine" issue. Might've been a lot closer - or a completely different outcome - if every pothead conservative in the state couldn't legally toke up already because of "tennis elbow" or whatever.

Good point... even the same article which I believe you are citing:

In the past few years, Oklahoma, long a solid bastion of conservatism, has quietly undergone a street-level transformation when it comes to marijuana. Dispensaries dot the landscape, with more than 400 in Oklahoma City alone.

The state legislature passed a two-year moratorium on new medical marijuana business licenses last year. The Oklahoma Farm Bureau, which opposes recreational marijuana legalization, has said the existing marijuana industry in the state is already straining rural infrastructure.

The proliferation of dispensaries — the state counts 2,890 active licenses — is evident on even the shortest drive through many municipalities. In the Oklahoma City neighborhood of Bricktown, which has many restaurants and hotels, dispensaries were already setting up before the election in anticipation of possible marijuana tourism from Texas or other neighboring states, should the ballot measure have passed.

Still, I have been chatting with my wife who grew up in Southern Oregon where illegal marijuana cultivation was a huge source of income when the timber economy was starting to collapse under the Reagan recession in the early '80s.

Even back then many "illegal" marijuana small family farmers were concerned about the potential of "legalization" to squeeze them out of the market at the hands of larger producers, where even "weed growing" places in Oregon back in '86 rejected the "personal use" legalization ballot measure #5  (26 % YES, 74% NO).

I have read multiple articles over recent years regarding Oklahoma medicinal marijuana production and how it has well exceeded levels which could reasonably be consumed within the state, meaning that OK is growing weed which is being exported elsewhere in massive numbers.

I grok the concept that voters in states which have legalized either or both medicinal and recreational marijuana are now facing significant issues with illegal grow operations, which contribute to a wide range of issues including:

1.) Environmental Contamination of waters & streams

2.) Human Trafficking for illegal grow operations

3.) Increase in crime in the form of robberies and shootings involving attempts to create a "heist" of product and cash which could easily be sold and transferred to the black market.

We have seen these problems arise in Oregon, and quite frankly don't blame the voters in Oklahoma for wanting to keep what they got and avoid the externalities.

Sure it was an extremely low turnout election, but yet the NO margins were a bit shocking, considering public opinion polls of OK voters regarding MJ legalization.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/oklahoma-marijuana-ballot.html

The collapse of the legalization vote in SE Oklahoma and populations with a large Native American population certainly tells a story.

Still, looks like there were multiple precincts in Muskogee, Oklahoma which voted YES, even in a low turnout election.

Shots out to Merle, love you man and can't forget seeing you live in concert where you basically said the whole song that was written for you was a joke, and you even appeared to take a toke on-stage while you were battling cancer.

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, legalization basically performed like Generic Dem.  Will this be the new trend in marijuana referendums?

[libertpaulian]

Wow, legalization basically performed like Generic Dem.  Will this be the new trend in marijuana referendums?

It was a low-turnout late winter/early spring special election. I'm surprised the YES vote did so well.

[Person Man]

Wow, legalization basically performed like Generic Dem.  Will this be the new trend in marijuana referendums?

It outperformed by like 10-12%. Probably on average similar to abortion.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The most interesting thing was that Cleveland County only voted two points to the right of Oklahoma County.  In 2020, the gap was 13 points, and it was 7-10 points in the three big 2022 races.

[politicallefty]

Pretty hilarious in a state where, according to NYT, nearly 10% of the population has a medical marijuana prescription. Guess this is the down-side of the medical argument: the "I already got mine" issue. Might've been a lot closer - or a completely different outcome - if every pothead conservative in the state couldn't legally toke up already because of "tennis elbow" or whatever.

The medical system in California before recreational passed was basically de facto recreational. It seems like the medical system in Oklahoma is even closer to recreational than California's was.

It looks like the state to watch this year will be Ohio, if it gets on the ballot. It should have made the ballot last year, but there was some sort of settlement agreement that pushed it to this year (assuming they can meet the signature requirement, of course). Ohio is a state that allows for initiatives in odd-years. That marijuana initiative may be in addition to an abortion rights amendment that would enshrine Roe-style protections into the state constitution (similar to Michigan's amendment last year). As for marijuana though, the most recent polling from a few months ago showed 60% support for recreational legalization.

[libertpaulian]

Pretty hilarious in a state where, according to NYT, nearly 10% of the population has a medical marijuana prescription. Guess this is the down-side of the medical argument: the "I already got mine" issue. Might've been a lot closer - or a completely different outcome - if every pothead conservative in the state couldn't legally toke up already because of "tennis elbow" or whatever.

The medical system in California before recreational passed was basically de facto recreational. It seems like the medical system in Oklahoma is even closer to recreational than California's was.

It looks like the state to watch this year will be Ohio, if it gets on the ballot. It should have made the ballot last year, but there was some sort of settlement agreement that pushed it to this year (assuming they can meet the signature requirement, of course). Ohio is a state that allows for initiatives in odd-years. That marijuana initiative may be in addition to an abortion rights amendment that would enshrine Roe-style protections into the state constitution (similar to Michigan's amendment last year). As for marijuana though, the most recent polling from a few months ago showed 60% support for recreational legalization.

If abortion is on the ballot this fall, the weed initiative will pass.

I think it's wise to punt both of these initiatives to 2024, in order to help Sherrod Brown. If they pass this year, some Dems might get complacent.

[Skill and Chance]

Pretty hilarious in a state where, according to NYT, nearly 10% of the population has a medical marijuana prescription. Guess this is the down-side of the medical argument: the "I already got mine" issue. Might've been a lot closer - or a completely different outcome - if every pothead conservative in the state couldn't legally toke up already because of "tennis elbow" or whatever.

The medical system in California before recreational passed was basically de facto recreational. It seems like the medical system in Oklahoma is even closer to recreational than California's was.

It looks like the state to watch this year will be Ohio, if it gets on the ballot. It should have made the ballot last year, but there was some sort of settlement agreement that pushed it to this year (assuming they can meet the signature requirement, of course). Ohio is a state that allows for initiatives in odd-years. That marijuana initiative may be in addition to an abortion rights amendment that would enshrine Roe-style protections into the state constitution (similar to Michigan's amendment last year). As for marijuana though, the most recent polling from a few months ago showed 60% support for recreational legalization.

If abortion is on the ballot this fall, the weed initiative will pass.

I think it's wise to punt both of these initiatives to 2024, in order to help Sherrod Brown. If they pass this year, some Dems might get complacent.

A 60% threshold for constitutional amendments narrowly failed in the legislature last fall.  If they're going to put initiatives on the ballot that go against the legislature, they should do it ASAP.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Wow, legalization basically performed like Generic Dem.  Will this be the new trend in marijuana referendums?

Five months ago, three statewide referendums in three GOP states did over 8 points better than the Dems at the top of the ticket.

I was curious about the poor result and tried to look up the most recent legalization referendum where support was below 40%. That would be Ohio in November 2015, which was also the last time a legalization referendum was held during an off-year election.

[politicallefty]

Wow, legalization basically performed like Generic Dem.  Will this be the new trend in marijuana referendums?

Five months ago, three statewide referendums in three GOP states did over 8 points better than the Dems at the top of the ticket.

I was curious about the poor result and tried to look up the most recent legalization referendum where support was below 40%. That would be Ohio in November 2015, which was also the last time a legalization referendum was held during an off-year election.

That seemed to be more about the specific proposal than about legalization itself. Apparently, establishing a preselected monopoly for cultivation in the state constitution proved to be quite unpopular. This proposal is a statute that seems like most of the others that have already passed in many other states. And, as I noted above, it's likely to share the ballot with an abortion rights amendment (that proposal is currently in the signature-gathering stage). I wouldn't count on low turnout if both initiatives are on the ballot in November.

[Badger]

So the answer to the OP's less than good faith question seems to be "no". Another conservative gotcha moment ruined by liberals not living down to their expectations and stereotypes.

[MasterJedi]

Delaware passed bills to legalize, 10 days to see if the Governor still wants to be a putz or not.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Delaware passed bills to legalize, 10 days to see if the Governor still wants to be a putz or not.

Can they override?

[MasterJedi]

Delaware passed bills to legalize, 10 days to see if the Governor still wants to be a putz or not.

Can they override?

Not sure of the situation, we’ll need to wait and see unless someone else knows more.

[icemanj]

Kentucky will be the next state to legalize medical.

https://www.marijuanamoment.net/kentucky-medical-marijuana-legalization-bill-is-one-step-from-governors-desk-with-final-vote-imminent/

It also looks like Minnesota is on the way to legalizing recreational this year.

[MasterJedi]

Good news in Delaware. Minnesota looking likely this year as well. Sadly Hawaiian Senate killed it again by not bringing it up for debate.

[Person Man]

Can we sticky the current map at the top of this thread?