The Green Thread: Marijuana in the states

[Hope For A New Era]

I wonder what the last state to legalize it will be. Idaho?

I'd say Idaho, Iowa, Utah or Wisconsin based on how our state is being run right now.

It's going to be Idaho for sure. Wisconsin will bend to pressure from neighboring states, Iowa is one of the most pragmatic states and will legalize it for financial reasons, and Utah can be surprisingly progressive at times (2018 medical referendum).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Suffolk University has polled the AZ marijuana ballot initiative:

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/10_2_2020_tables_pdftxt.pdf

September 26-30, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Support Prop 207 46%
Oppose Prop 207 34%
Refused 1%
Undecided 19%

For comparison, they've also polled the other amendment:
"Second, Proposition 208 is called the “Invest in Education Act.” This law would create a new 3.5% tax surcharge on individuals with income over $250,000 or married couples with income over $500,000 to increase funding for public education. Will you support or oppose this ballot question?"

Support Prop 208 47%
Oppose Prop 208 37%
Refused 1%
Undecided 15%

Edit: OHPI have also released a recent survey on the matter, although their question reads, "Do you believe that marijuana should be legalized for adult use in the State of Arizona?" as opposed to spelling out the initiative to be voted on.

https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/7453540/200908%20AZPOP/AZPOP%20Marijuana%20Crosstabs.pdf

September 8-10
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with July 6-7 poll
Trends calculated pre-rounding

Yes (legalise) 46% (-15)
No 45% (+13)
Refused 0% (but some voters) (n/c from 0% with no voters)
Unsure/Undecided 9% (+3)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The South Dakota Chamber of Commerce organised a No Way on A anti-legalisation campaign against two initiatives on the ballot (Initiated Measure 26 legalises medical marjiuana and Amendment A legalises recreational marijuana). This group paid for a poll showing them squarely on the wrong side of the public on both counts:

https://eu.argusleader.com/story/news/2020/09/18/poll-most-south-dakota-voters-support-legalizing-marijuana/5828238002/

Public Opinion Strategies (partisan sponsor)
June 27-30 (what are the odds they polled several times and gave up on waiting for better results to release?  )

Initiated Measure 26 - 70% approval
Amendment A - ~60% approval

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

In response to the OHPI poll showing support for legal recreational marijuana only leading by 1%, the Smart and Safe Act's campaign has released an internal for the AZ measure:

https://www.marijuanamoment.net/mixed-arizona-marijuana-polls-raise-questions-about-legalization-ballot-measures-prospects/

Conducted by Strategies 360
September 24-29
800 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%
With leaners, on prop. 207 specifically:

YES 57%
NO 38%
Completely undecided 5%

Edit: I'm adding the new DKC analytics poll of the NJ measure here so as not to clutter up the forum.

https://cannabislaw.report/nj-law-firm-brach-eichler-survey-reveals-65-voters-in-the-state-want-legal-cannabis/

DKC Analytics
Brach Eichler sponsored it but they are fully behind the measure so treat this as an internal
September 8-16
501 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with August 5-13 poll (for the same sponsor)

On S.2703:
SUPPORT 65% (-1)
OPPOSE 29% (+2)
Unsure 6% (-1)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

We could very well be looking at a clean sweep for legalization initiatives.

I believe Mississippi has a medicinal one on the ballot. I'm curious how that'll go

[Lourdes]

Vermont just legalized cannabis sales  + automatic expungement of convictions:

https://twitter.com/tomangell/status/1313979596178698240

[MasterJedi]

We could very well be looking at a clean sweep for legalization initiatives.

I believe Mississippi has a medicinal one on the ballot. I'm curious how that'll go

SD will be a stretch, I would not be surprised if it lost. I expect MS to pass medical easily, even there.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FDU has polled the NJ initiative: http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2020/201009/final.pdf

September 30 - October 5
582 likely voters
MoE: 4.6% among likely voters

Yes 59%
No 30%
Refused 0% (but some voters)
Don't know 11%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Montana state university (Bozeman) has polled the initiatives

https://www.ktvh.com/news/election-2020/msu-poll-bullock-rosendale-gianforte-leading-slightly-trump-up-by-7-in-mt

September 14 to October 2
1615 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%

YES 49%
NO 39%
Will not vote on this 2%
Don't know 12%

Edit: more details here: https://helpslab.montana.edu/index.html

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

OHPI poll of Arizona:
https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/7453540/201005_AZPOP/PR_Arizona%20Public%20Opinion%20Pulse%20Toplines%20and%20Crosstabs%20(1).pdf

October 4-8
608 likely voters
MoE: 3.97%

Prop 207 (actually polled as opposed to just whether recreational marijuana should be legal)
Support 55%
Oppose 37%
Refused 1%
Unsure 7%

Prop 208 - education funding
Support 55%
Oppose 39%
Refused 0% (but some voters)
Unsure 6%

Monmouth poll of Arizona:
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_az_101520.pdf/

October 11-13
502 registered voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with September 11-15

Prop 207
For 56% (+5)
Against 36% (-5)
Will not vote on this 0% (but some voters) (-3)
Don't know 7% (+1)

Prop 208 - education funding
For 60% (-6)
Against 34% (+9)
Will not vote on this 1% (n/c)
Don't know 5% (-2)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The NJ amendment looks pretty tough to beat.

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2020-1016-stockton-poll-biden-booker-lead-trump-stronger-in-sj.pdf

October 7-13
721 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%

Favour 66%
Oppose 23%
Undecided/not sure 10%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.investorideas.com/news/2020/cannabis/10202New-Jersey-Low-Level-Marijuana-Convictions.asp

Another poll by DKC Analytics for Brach Eichler, which supports the amendment:

October 5-13
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with September 8-16

Support 65% (n/c)
Oppose 29% (n/c)
Unsure 6% (n/c)

[S019]

The NJ amendment looks pretty tough to beat.

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2020-1016-stockton-poll-biden-booker-lead-trump-stronger-in-sj.pdf

October 7-13
721 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%

Favour 66%
Oppose 23%
Undecided/not sure 10%

Unfortunate, I expected better from my state, oh well...

[hurricanehink]

The NJ amendment looks pretty tough to beat.

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2020-1016-stockton-poll-biden-booker-lead-trump-stronger-in-sj.pdf

October 7-13
721 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%

Favour 66%
Oppose 23%
Undecided/not sure 10%

Unfortunate, I expected better from my state, oh well...

Don’t get too down yet. With 10% undecided, NJ could vote 75% in favor, which I’d be extremely proud of, and could hopefully accelerate legalization efforts across the country.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It's probably the most boring of the 4 states, but I'd be curious in a poll on South Dakota's ballot measure.

I'm most unsure how that state will vote on it

[icemanj]

It's probably the most boring of the 4 states, but I'd be curious in a poll on South Dakota's ballot measure.

I'm most unsure how that state will vote on it

https://norml.org/blog/2020/09/21/south-dakota-opposition-groups-polling-shows-voter-support-for-marijuana-legalization-initiatives/

Medical: 70% support
Recreational: 60% support

according to opposition group's poll, so not sure what to make of that.

[South Dakota Democrat]

It's probably the most boring of the 4 states, but I'd be curious in a poll on South Dakota's ballot measure.

I'm most unsure how that state will vote on it

Most boring in terms of what?

Sure, a lot of right wingers in the state, but I love my state.  Wide, open spaces, lots of awesome tourist destinations in the western part of the state, etc.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It's probably the most boring of the 4 states, but I'd be curious in a poll on South Dakota's ballot measure.

I'm most unsure how that state will vote on it

Most boring in terms of what?

Sure, a lot of right wingers in the state, but I love my state.  Wide, open spaces, lots of awesome tourist destinations in the western part of the state, etc.

I guess in terms of interest/attention in the pot measure. More attention has been put on Arizona & Jersey, perhaps even Montana with its history of pot measures

[South Dakota Democrat]

It's probably the most boring of the 4 states, but I'd be curious in a poll on South Dakota's ballot measure.

I'm most unsure how that state will vote on it

Most boring in terms of what?

Sure, a lot of right wingers in the state, but I love my state.  Wide, open spaces, lots of awesome tourist destinations in the western part of the state, etc.

I guess in terms of interest/attention in the  pot measure. More attention has been put on Arizona & Jersey, perhaps even Montana with its history of pot measures

Perhaps.  I haven't heard much about it despite living in South Dakota.  We did attempt to legalize medical marijuana in 2010, I believe, though.  Failed spectacularly.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Mason-Dixon poll of SD: https://eu.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/24/argus-leader-kelo-tv-south-dakota-marijuana-poll/6012860002/

October 19-21
625 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Medicinal marijuana referendum
Yes 74%
No 23%
Undecided 3%

Recreational marijuana referendum
Yes 51%
No 44%
Undecided 5%

[Torrain]

Mason-Dixon poll of SD: https://eu.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/24/argus-leader-kelo-tv-south-dakota-marijuana-poll/6012860002/

October 19-21
625 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Medicinal marijuana referendum
Yes 74%
No 23%
Undecided 3%

Recreational marijuana referendum
Yes 51%
No 44%
Undecided 5%

If SD goes from fully illegal (but decriminalised) marijuana to full legalisation, it's going to make for some surreal moments.

Also, it'll be interesting to see what legalisation does to the regional politics on the issue. If MT and SD have both legalised, does it become harder to enforce in ID, ND, NE etc, leading to a shift in policy and speed up the trend towards legalisation in across the Great Plains?

[Virginiá]

Also, it'll be interesting to see what legalisation does to the regional politics on the issue. If MT and SD have both legalised, does it become harder to enforce in ID, ND, NE etc, leading to a shift in policy and speed up the trend towards legalisation in across the Great Plains?

You would think that is how it'd work, but in other regions this does not seem to be the case. Politicians who have never known a pro-legalization world in their formative years simply can't bring themselves to do it. Even with Vermont, at least its initial legalization measure was half-baked. New Jersey couldn't agree and sent it to the voters. Other states opted to sit around and "study" the issue more (aka do nothing). Illinois is the only one who fully pulled the trigger.

We really need movement at the federal level to stop giving obstinate politicians the muh federal govt prohibition excuse.

[Torrain]

Also, it'll be interesting to see what legalisation does to the regional politics on the issue. If MT and SD have both legalised, does it become harder to enforce in ID, ND, NE etc, leading to a shift in policy and speed up the trend towards legalisation in across the Great Plains?

You would think that is how it'd work, but in other regions this does not seem to be the case. Politicians who have never known a pro-legalization world in their formative years simply can't bring themselves to do it. Even with Vermont, at least its initial legalization measure was half-baked. New Jersey couldn't agree and sent it to the voters. Other states opted to sit around and "study" the issue more (aka do nothing). Illinois is the only one who fully pulled the trigger.

We really need movement at the federal level to stop giving obstinate politicians the muh federal govt prohibition excuse.

That makes a lot of sense.

If a Biden DOJ was to move to alter enforcement again, or Congress altered it's classification the Illegal Substances Act, would that be enough to alter policy at the state level?

A move to decriminalise at the federal level would presumably change the tenor of the conversation, but it feels like the states still hold all the cards to enact more permanent reform at this point.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

OH Predictive Insights polled for Arizona: https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/7453540/Arizona%20Public%20Opinion%20Pulse%20(AZPOP)%20Toplines%20and%20Crosstabs%20(2).pdf

October 22-25
716 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%
Changes with October 4-8

Support 60% (+5)
Oppose 36% (-1)
Refused 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Unsure 4% (-3)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14k1Rtcxamdn-4xUFAPpIcTAzAaRHala0wAAlnEUJy5E/edit#gid=0

NJ Rutgers-Eagleton poll of the marijuana initiative:

October 19-24
861 likely voters
MoE: 4%

For 61%
Against 34%
Don't know 5%