The Green Thread: Marijuana in the states

[MasterJedi]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/milwaukee/2018/05/10/county-panel-endorses-marijuana-referendum-nov-6-ballot/591566002/

So a Milwaukee County committee unanimously passed a resolution for a vote on legal pot for Nov 6, it's expected to pass the full council.

[junior chįmp]

BIG

Ohio Attorney General certifies marijuana legalization petition

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Florida's ban on smokeable medical marijuana ruled unconstitutional

BIG

Ohio Attorney General certifies marijuana legalization petition

Good.  Is the amendment worded better this time?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The FDA has approved the country's first medicine made from marijuana.  CBD rescheduling to come.

[Badger]

BIG

Ohio Attorney General certifies marijuana legalization petition

Advocates are aiming to put it on the ballot for 2019. Brilliant, because nothing turns out youth and minority voters like an off-off-year election.

[TarHeelDem]

https://twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/1011813140563156992

[hurricanehink]

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/north-dakota/articles/2018-08-13/north-dakota-recreational-pot-measure-approved-for-ballot

Voters in North Dakota will vote this November whether to legalize recreational marijuana, alongside Michigan. Utah is also voting this November for medical marijuana, possibly joined by Missouri.

[NOVA Green]

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/north-dakota/articles/2018-08-13/north-dakota-recreational-pot-measure-approved-for-ballot

Voters in North Dakota will vote this November whether to legalize recreational marijuana, alongside Michigan. Utah is also voting this November for medical marijuana, possibly joined by Missouri.

WOW!!!

Anybody want to bet on how well it will perform in November in ND?

My guess it will perform significantly better than the Oregon MJ Legalization Initiative back in in '86, where outright legalization garnered 26% of the Vote, but on the short end of the joint compared to legalization votes in recent years in most other states....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_Oregon

My guess is that it goes down by something like 42-58% NO.

Still there are a lot of farmers in ND, and they are checking at agricultural commodity pricing in States where Herb is Legal, and realize that there is a much higher profit margin per acre than in many other ag commodities.

That being said, farmers aren't stupid at all, and those potentially inclined to invest in the "Green Rush", also realize that despite the potential windfall if they chose to go that route there are multiple risks and downsides:

1.) It is still illegal at the Federal level making it a cash only industry.

For farmers, this is a no-go zone, since like many other smaller businesses, having a stable supply of credit is key to successful cash-flow, especially considering the vicissitudes already inherent within an industry, where simply a bad harvest season caused by things like drought can cause successive negative balance sheets for multiple years in a row.

2.) The classification of Marijuana at the Federal level (Especially under the current AG) make it an extremely risky business proposition, where in theory, the Feds could swoop in at any time, and seize all assets of farmers that recently diversified their acreage to incorporate a limited share of the "Legal Bud" market. If I were running a successful small Corn Farm in Eastern North Dakota, running narrow margins with decreased commodity pricing, even if I were so inclined, that would make it an overall negative value proposition.

3.) Many farmers in the US are already facing severe margins in recent years as a result of a global collapse of agricultural commodity pricing.

States that have legalized recreational Marijuana are increasingly starting to see a massive collapse in the retail price of Marijuana as the Supply overwhelms the demand.

Just a Month ago, I went to a retail establishment a few Miles down the road from where I live, in a heavily agricultural producing region of Oregon, to pick up some Medicine for my Wife  from a major work-related injury some 20 Years back, and they have a discount deal for $60 for an Ounce of High CBD /Low THC Herb with a Sativa/Indica mix???

For the consumers that might sound like great news, but for the farmers that a 50% drop in pricing, compared to what I heard through the Grapevine an OZ would go for way back in 1990 in "Downstate Oregon" would go for that much, is obviously a major medium and longer term business proposition!!!

4.) An additional business concern for farmers interested in investing in the "Green Rush", is that agricultural production is a scientific business that requires many years of knowledge, skills, and experience (KSE) and ultimately farmers in North Dakota know they are well behind the curveball when it comes to regions of the US where the "Guerrilla MJ AG sector" has been running strong for decades.

https://www.wweek.com/cannabis/2017/04/11/the-rise-and-fall-of-sinsemilla-tips-corvallis-legendary-marijuana-magazine/

There are tons of Old Skool Pro's in the Biz going back to the late '70s and early '80s, that addressed a major shortage of MJ in the US compared to demand, after Jimmy Carter massively clamped down on MJ importation from Mexico/South America, as well as the Caribbean that created a default "Cottage Industry" in many parts of the US.

The growth of MJ AG production during that period was heavily driven by two regions of the US, both of which were facing extreme economic hardships during the height of both "Stagflation" and the "Reagan Recession".

1.) The Pacific Northwest--- Major increases in domestic MJ production were heavily concentrated in areas that had seen a dramatic decline in the Timber Production as a result of the US Economic Crisis from the Mid 1970s to the Mid 1980s.

The collapse of Housing Starts triggered by the Reagan Administration to "address" a hyper-inflation economic environment, triggered the Deepest and Longest Recession in Oregon History since the Great Depression, and in many heavily Timber dependent communities forced people to find work in the "Informal Sector"....

2.) I remember some 25 Years back in College in Ohio in a High Times article about how 25% of domestic American MJ production was taking place in Appalachia America....

Needless to say, is it any wonder that in a region where Military Service was essentially obligatory for a Young Male of draft Age, that many Americans from the region first experience MJ in 'Nam.

Now, the massive decline of the Coal and Steel producing centers of the region during that era, created a major unemployment situation, where if you were in your '30s back then, and you got laid off at the plant (Union Seniority--- First hired, First Fired), and you have a plot of family land out in the hills with 120 acres inherited, and suddenly you start looking at alternative means of revenue, especially once your unemployment check runs out, and you gotta figure out how to pay the property taxes on the land you inherited from your parents, and again you turn to the "informal sector".

5.) ALL Recreational MJ Producers from States that approved these initiatives in the early days are anxiously awaiting to see what happens once California Agricultural Marijuana starts hitting other States markets....  What happens if we see a "Marlboro Greens" start showing up from massive Agribusiness Farms in Cali?

6.) Honestly I doubt that Social Morality will be a deciding factor in North Dakota citizens choosing to allow Recreational Marijuana in their State....

Farming is an extremely complex and scientific endeavor, and the risks of shifting to REC MJ well outweigh the potential upsides, and although I suspect a large majority of voters in ND don't mind if adults smoke a joint in the privacy of their own homes, I don't think this state had enough reasons to support REC HERB in terms of local supply-chains.

Any Opinions?

[Virginiá]

Kind of curious if this was done to try and help Heitkamp. North Dakota seems like a somewhat random choice otherwise.

[NOVA Green]

Kind of curious if this was done to try and help Heitkamp. North Dakota seems like a somewhat random choice otherwise.

Well certainly there was most likely outside funding to get enough signatures to get it on the ballot combined with sufficiently airtight legal statutory protections against any attempt to overturn the will of the voters.

Although obviously we can't speak to the intent of those that invested $$$ getting this ballot measure out there for November, it is still somewhat questionable to what extent putting "Social Issues" on the ballot actually significantly changes voting patterns in Federal Elections.

There are certainly strong arguments to be made that Anti-LGBT ballot initiatives significantly boosted Evangelical Turnout in the 2004 General Election, but we really don't have any significant evidence to support that this actually made a significant shift in overall Margins, even in a General Election Year when it came to Kerry vs Bush Jr.

So let's say hypothetically that it increases turnout among "Non-Traditional Off-Year Voters".... this may add +1-2% to Dem margins overall in the US in a GE.

Problem is that North Dakota is:

1.) Already a fairly high voter turnout state, even in off-year elections

2.) It is generally a fairly "Old" State compared to the National Average, without a major concentration of Younger Age demographics that *might* surge to the voting booth based upon Legalization of Weed.

3.) Sure in an extremely close US-SEN election there might be enough extra votes out there from 3rd Party Younger Voters in '16 that went Libertarian and Green, to take the ball over the line on a 3rd and Inches scenario, but still....

Now thing with ND is that investing $$$ to get stuff on the ballot is very inexpensive compared to many other States in the Union, so if I were still playing Semi-Pro Poker, it might well be a really good value bet....

[NOVA Green]

The FDA has approved the country's first medicine made from marijuana.  CBD rescheduling to come.

Scott--- Although I knew it happened, I didn't start to realize the significance until about Two Months ago in the smoking area of my work-place.

Anecdotal Story: But represented honestly and the best of my abilities involving an individual whom I have known for ~ 10 Yrs....

A Senior "In-House" employee of a Fortune 50 Company at the Mfg/ R&D Factory that I work at, was talking about a side gig as a Project Manager he was doing for a friend that involved converting some 40 acres of rural Mid- Willamette Valley designated Ag land (Oregon Land Use Planning Laws), into an alternative form of Agriculture.

Naturally a bunch of the line workers, Techs, and Engineering employees started cracking jokes about how he is doing a side gig in the Weed Business....

After a few days of relentless teasing he cops up, and his long time buddy that he was lining up the outdoor drip-systems for was growing CBD MJ as part of of an experimental gig to gain market access anticipating changes in FED laws....

High CBD / Low THC has become increasingly a recommendation for many Doctors in Legalization States to address certain types of patient ailments, and actually helped move one of my Daughters who would likely fall into the class of the 6-8% () of Marijuana smokers that tend to exhibit patterns of both physical and mental addiction. (Obviously addictive personality types are not confined to any one substance, for anyone who considers themselves to be a former or recovering addict of any type).   

Maybe I spent too much time talking to my Dad in my Teenage Years, or exhibited other types of addictive personality disorders.... AAS (Atlas Addiction Syndrome)   

Now my Daughter that had a massive prescription medication addiction, where the High THC MJ would counter-balance some of the "Brain Chemicals" that the Doctors used to give her like candy, is now clean and sober for over Two Years, and doesn't even smoke or consume MJ with THC anymore, after finally weaning her way off the pills, and then moving into Medi CBD products to address some other major Medical issues....

CBD > Medical MJ > Some States Rec

Still, I think Oregon will gain a couple Thousand jobs alone just on CBD research $$$ alone, once the Feds open the pipeline for Non-THC Medical MJ.

[NOVA Green]

So here's a map that I created of where Marijuana Policy might look like after the November 2018 elections...

The dark green states speak for themselves= Recreational Marijuana is currently legal

Light Green states= Recreational Marijuana is on the ballot in November 2018

The Yellow Green States= States where medical marijuana is relatively accessible for a wide range of medical conditions and can be consumed through smoking and with a level of THC contents

Pink States= States where access to medical marijuana is difficult, restrictions on THC levels, and smoking marijuana is not approved.

Light Blue States= States where medical marijuana is strictly limited to CBD only, and or basically impossible to obtain.

Dark Blue States= Places where medical marijuana is illegal under state law.

So as you can see from the map, in theory an individual with a medical marijuana card could drive from Maine to California with an Oz of herb in the trunk with relatively little risk, outside of a sliver of NH, PA, WI.... the tricky part would be crossing the Idaho Panhandle without ending up in jail...

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Legalization in Michigan passes!

[Lourdes]

Still shocked that legal weed failed in North Dakota.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Still shocked that legal weed failed in North Dakota.

Yeah, especially by the margin.  Heitkamp lost by 11 and weed failed by 18.

Two years ago, medical cannabis was approved 64-36.

[Storr]

Still shocked that legal weed failed in North Dakota.

Yeah, especially by the margin.  Heitkamp lost by 11 and weed failed by 18.

Two years ago, medical cannabis was approved 64-36.

I mean, it is North Dakota after all. No state anywhere near as conservative as North Dakota has approved recreational weed.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Still shocked that legal weed failed in North Dakota.

Yeah, especially by the margin.  Heitkamp lost by 11 and weed failed by 18.

Two years ago, medical cannabis was approved 64-36.

I mean, it is North Dakota after all. No state anywhere near as conservative as North Dakota has approved recreational weed.

Alaska did, but it has a stronger libertarian streak than ND.

The next states we should be looking at for ballot initiatives are Arizona, Ohio (without the monopoly nonsense in the last referendum), Missouri, and Montana.  It would gain majority approval in Florida, but it will probably take a few cycles before it can get 60%.

Recreational probably won't pass in Oklahoma or Arkansas any time soon.

[MasterJedi]

Still shocked that legal weed failed in North Dakota.

Yeah, especially by the margin.  Heitkamp lost by 11 and weed failed by 18.

Two years ago, medical cannabis was approved 64-36.

I mean, it is North Dakota after all. No state anywhere near as conservative as North Dakota has approved recreational weed.

Alaska did, but it has a stronger libertarian streak than ND.

The next states we should be looking at for ballot initiatives are Arizona, Ohio (without the monopoly nonsense in the last referendum), Missouri, and Montana.  It would gain majority approval in Florida, but it will probably take a few cycles before it can get 60%.

Recreational probably won't pass in Oklahoma or Arkansas any time soon.

If it gets on the ballot in Wisconsin it would pass too. Recreational weed won everywhere it was on the ballot by yuge margins and medical marijuana was winning with 80% in deep Republican counties too.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Still shocked that legal weed failed in North Dakota.

Yeah, especially by the margin.  Heitkamp lost by 11 and weed failed by 18.

Two years ago, medical cannabis was approved 64-36.

I mean, it is North Dakota after all. No state anywhere near as conservative as North Dakota has approved recreational weed.

Alaska did, but it has a stronger libertarian streak than ND.

The next states we should be looking at for ballot initiatives are Arizona, Ohio (without the monopoly nonsense in the last referendum), Missouri, and Montana.  It would gain majority approval in Florida, but it will probably take a few cycles before it can get 60%.

Recreational probably won't pass in Oklahoma or Arkansas any time soon.

If it gets on the ballot in Wisconsin it would pass too. Recreational weed won everywhere it was on the ballot by yuge margins and medical marijuana was winning with 80% in deep Republican counties too.

True, but binding/non-advisory ballot measures need to be approved by the legislature first in Wisconsin.  Democrats would probably need to win control of the statehouse first at least, which they weren't able to do this year.

Although IIRC when I was watching the WI Senate debate a few weeks ago, Baldwin referred to some local marijuana measures that were on the ballot in some counties and cities that she was supporting.  How did those go?

[MasterJedi]

Still shocked that legal weed failed in North Dakota.

Yeah, especially by the margin.  Heitkamp lost by 11 and weed failed by 18.

Two years ago, medical cannabis was approved 64-36.

I mean, it is North Dakota after all. No state anywhere near as conservative as North Dakota has approved recreational weed.

Alaska did, but it has a stronger libertarian streak than ND.

The next states we should be looking at for ballot initiatives are Arizona, Ohio (without the monopoly nonsense in the last referendum), Missouri, and Montana.  It would gain majority approval in Florida, but it will probably take a few cycles before it can get 60%.

Recreational probably won't pass in Oklahoma or Arkansas any time soon.

If it gets on the ballot in Wisconsin it would pass too. Recreational weed won everywhere it was on the ballot by yuge margins and medical marijuana was winning with 80% in deep Republican counties too.

True, but binding/non-advisory ballot measures need to be approved by the legislature first in Wisconsin.  Democrats would probably need to win control of the statehouse first at least, which they weren't able to do this year.

Although IIRC when I was watching the WI Senate debate a few weeks ago, Baldwin referred to some local marijuana measures that were on the ballot in some counties and cities that she was supporting.  How did those go?

https://www.tmj4.com/elections

Scroll down, marijuana initiatives are all there I believe but all passed. Nonbinding.

[Virginiá]

So what are the chances that Illinois legalizes marijuana? Apparently it is part of JB's agenda. And I don't mean half-legalization like Vermont, but full legalization with a market that provides tax revenue? This seems like a no-brainer for IL, but lawmakers in most states so far haven't seemed to accept that there is little-to-no political risk anymore and that legalization is basically inevitable.

[Storr]

So what are the chances that Illinois legalizes marijuana? Apparently it is part of JB's agenda. And I don't mean half-legalization like Vermont, but full legalization with a market that provides tax revenue? This seems like a no-brainer for IL, but lawmakers in most states so far haven't seemed to accept that there is little-to-no political risk anymore and that legalization is basically inevitable.

Same goes with Virginia, Minnesota, Connecticut or Pennsylvania. All are liberal to liberal leaning states.

[Virginiá]

So what are the chances that Illinois legalizes marijuana? Apparently it is part of JB's agenda. And I don't mean half-legalization like Vermont, but full legalization with a market that provides tax revenue? This seems like a no-brainer for IL, but lawmakers in most states so far haven't seemed to accept that there is little-to-no political risk anymore and that legalization is basically inevitable.

Same goes with Virginia, Minnesota, Connecticut or Pennsylvania. All are liberal to liberal leaning states.

Honestly, at least for now, all of these except maybe Connecticut do not seem to be viable due to Republican control of one or both legislative chambers. It's hard enough to get Democrats on board, and Democratic voters support legalization in much higher numbers than Republicans. Virginia might be possible once Democrats flip the legislature, but I feel like they need a bigger majority than what seems possible in 2019. Need to have a MoE for the inevitable defections of lawmakers who are either too scared of making what they still perceive to be a politically-risky vote and/or are still under the spell of the war on drugs.

Illinois seems like a better bet due to their fiscal situation and the fact that they now have a unified Democratic govt with super-majorities in the legislature (and Governor who explicitly supports legalization)

[GP270watch]

 I think legalization/decriminalization needs to go on the 2020 Florida ballot. Florida has a 60% threshold making it difficult to pass but it will increase voter turnout.

[Lourdes]

We might get a vote soon here in New Jersey.

https://www.nj.com/marijuana/2018/11/nj_officially_on_path_to_recreational_marijuana_he.html

Fingers crossed.