GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Adam Griffin]

If it works out how it usually does in GA, virtually all of those undecideds will go to Handel. I'm not sure why everybody's so excited about a 2-3 point lead in a poll.

Unless they are lying, there is an equal amount of undecided Trump and Clinton voters.

Remember that a 50/50 presidential electorate went 60/40 in favor of Price. I think that in conjunction with typical "undecided" Georgia trends + general margins of error in polling is enough to still believe this is very much within MoE.

[Angrie]

If it works out how it usually does in GA, virtually all of those undecideds will go to Handel. I'm not sure why everybody's so excited about a 2-3 point lead in a poll.

Unless they are lying, there is an equal amount of undecided Trump and Clinton voters.

The problem is that those "undecided" Clinton voters are probably people who normally vote Republican. So there is some reason to think that the undecideds could break in favor of the GOP. Truly, in places like GA and other southern states, they always seem to do that. Democrats' hopes always get dashed at the last minute.

[Virginiá]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

[Angrie]

Clearly Ossoff can win. But we just shouldn't get our hopes up (those of us on the D side) that it will be a large/blowout type win. I would think we have all had enough footballs snatched away from us for that. And he could definitely lose as well.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Ossoff is definitely in the lead right now but why nobody talking about Handel. It's like her campaign doesn't exist it is basically well she a Republican + she in Georgia = a Win?

[The Other Castro]

Ossoff is definitely in the lead right now but why nobody talking about Handel. It's like her campaign doesn't exist it is basically well she a Republican + she in Georgia = a Win?

I'd imagine that she's too busy raising money to match Ossoff's performance that's she doesn't have time to do enough public campaigning.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ossoff is definitely in the lead right now but why nobody talking about Handel. It's like her campaign doesn't exist it is basically well she a Republican + she in Georgia = a Win?

Not necessarily, did Democrat +Hillary in Mi, Pa, or Wi= a Win? No. Take every race seriously, and never underestimate your opponent. Tough lesson we already should have learned.

[publicunofficial]

My favorite thing about Karen Handel is when you explain who she is to people and you mention the Susan G. Komen thing and the response is usually "Oh wait that was her? F**k that lady."

[McGovernForPrez]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

Democrats might've even won had there not been a strange mixup involving some of the voting machines in Cobb County. Voting machines were stolen in a few strong Democratic precincts so they only ever reported the early vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

Democrats might've even won had there not been a strange mixup involving some of the voting machines in Cobb County. Voting machines were stolen in a few strong Democratic precincts so they only ever reported the early vote.

Citation?  I live in metro ATL and have followed the race closely, and this is the first I've heard of such a mixup.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

Democrats might've even won had there not been a strange mixup involving some of the voting machines in Cobb County. Voting machines were stolen in a few strong Democratic precincts so they only ever reported the early vote.

I did hear about the machines being stolen, but I never heard about it actually effecting the election. I'm not denying it, but if you could give a source or something, I'd love to read it. I'm just curious, that's all.

[McGovernForPrez]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

Democrats might've even won had there not been a strange mixup involving some of the voting machines in Cobb County. Voting machines were stolen in a few strong Democratic precincts so they only ever reported the early vote.

I did hear about the machines being stolen, but I never heard about it actually effecting the election. I'm not denying it, but if you could give a source or something, I'd love to read it. I'm just curious, that's all.

Well if you look at the NYT map here https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6 you'll see that there are 4 precincts in Cobb county which only reported early votes. In 2016 Clinton got more than 4500 votes from those 4 precincts, they were majority Dem leaning precincts. Had the machines not have been stolen even 3000 votes may have tipped the scales. Can't say whether or not he's have won but it would've right down to the wire had it not happened.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

Democrats might've even won had there not been a strange mixup involving some of the voting machines in Cobb County. Voting machines were stolen in a few strong Democratic precincts so they only ever reported the early vote.

I did hear about the machines being stolen, but I never heard about it actually effecting the election. I'm not denying it, but if you could give a source or something, I'd love to read it. I'm just curious, that's all.

Well if you look at the NYT map here https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6 you'll see that there are 4 precincts in Cobb county which only reported early votes. In 2016 Clinton got more than 4500 votes from those 4 precincts, they were majority Dem leaning precincts. Had the machines not have been stolen even 3000 votes may have tipped the scales. Can't say whether or not he's have won but it would've right down to the wire had it not happened.

I hope you are right, that way we can turn out more voters, and have all their votes counted on election day. That plus the backlog of voters in registration pending, will hopefully propel Ossoff to victory.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

Democrats might've even won had there not been a strange mixup involving some of the voting machines in Cobb County. Voting machines were stolen in a few strong Democratic precincts so they only ever reported the early vote.

I did hear about the machines being stolen, but I never heard about it actually effecting the election. I'm not denying it, but if you could give a source or something, I'd love to read it. I'm just curious, that's all.

Well if you look at the NYT map here https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6 you'll see that there are 4 precincts in Cobb county which only reported early votes. In 2016 Clinton got more than 4500 votes from those 4 precincts, they were majority Dem leaning precincts. Had the machines not have been stolen even 3000 votes may have tipped the scales. Can't say whether or not he's have won but it would've right down to the wire had it not happened.

It wouldn't have been enough. Let's assume there were 10k ED votes in those precincts (probably too high, but using for the sake of argument) and they split 7-3 for Ossoff.

New Totals:

Jon Ossoff
97,390   48.8%

All Others
102,239 51.2%

[Tintrlvr]

How do we know from the NYT map that those precincts only reported early votes? I do not see anything on the NYT website that would indicate this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

Democrats might've even won had there not been a strange mixup involving some of the voting machines in Cobb County. Voting machines were stolen in a few strong Democratic precincts so they only ever reported the early vote.

I did hear about the machines being stolen, but I never heard about it actually effecting the election. I'm not denying it, but if you could give a source or something, I'd love to read it. I'm just curious, that's all.

Well if you look at the NYT map here https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6 you'll see that there are 4 precincts in Cobb county which only reported early votes. In 2016 Clinton got more than 4500 votes from those 4 precincts, they were majority Dem leaning precincts. Had the machines not have been stolen even 3000 votes may have tipped the scales. Can't say whether or not he's have won but it would've right down to the wire had it not happened.

You've got to do better than that.  How about posting the specific precincts and what the official returns from them are?  If you're talking about the incident described at http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/police-honored-for-swift-work-recovering-stolen-voting-equipment/aHfJCsd0UEaSEGl70EjKHL/, it had no effect on the actual vote count.

I'll also point out that Ossoff's official vote total was 92,673 out of 193,981 total cast.  It would be necessary to give Ossoff an additional 8,636 (with none for anyone else) for Ossoff to have received a majority.  (Source: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/67317/Web02-state/#/)

Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for Ossoff in this race.  But the burden of proof is on the person who makes this claim; otherwise it's just another conspiracy theory.  Do you really believe that if this was really an issue that the Democratic party wouldn't have been litigating it to high heaven?

[McGovernForPrez]

How do we know from the NYT map that those precincts only reported early votes? I do not see anything on the NYT website that would indicate this.

Sorry I guess not everybody was watching on E-day. I can confirm that those places were early vote only. The results there came in with the rest of the early results. Look at the 2016 turnout levels and compare them to the ones on the Ossof map. If they included the E-day numbers that would mean a voter turnout less than 10% of the 2016 turnout. That's obviously ridiculous given the much higher numbers in the rest of the district.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

How do we know from the NYT map that those precincts only reported early votes? I do not see anything on the NYT website that would indicate this.

Sorry I guess not everybody was watching on E-day. I can confirm that those places were early vote only. The results there came in with the rest of the early results. Look at the 2016 turnout levels and compare them to the ones on the Ossof map. If they included the E-day numbers that would mean a voter turnout less than 10% of the 2016 turnout. That's obviously ridiculous given the much higher numbers in the rest of the district.

You got some strong circumstantial evidence there, but it would be nice if you could give all of us an article, or statement, or official precinct results from the county or the SOS showing your statement to be true, or something like that.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How do we know from the NYT map that those precincts only reported early votes? I do not see anything on the NYT website that would indicate this.

Sorry I guess not everybody was watching on E-day. I can confirm that those places were early vote only. The results there came in with the rest of the early results. Look at the 2016 turnout levels and compare them to the ones on the Ossof map. If they included the E-day numbers that would mean a voter turnout less than 10% of the 2016 turnout. That's obviously ridiculous given the much higher numbers in the rest of the district.

Still, per my calculations, an additional 10k votes going 7-3 ossoff wouldn't have been enough. And Georgia moderate is right that the Ds would have launched a lawsuit if it was enough.

[McGovernForPrez]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

Democrats might've even won had there not been a strange mixup involving some of the voting machines in Cobb County. Voting machines were stolen in a few strong Democratic precincts so they only ever reported the early vote.

I did hear about the machines being stolen, but I never heard about it actually effecting the election. I'm not denying it, but if you could give a source or something, I'd love to read it. I'm just curious, that's all.

Well if you look at the NYT map here https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6 you'll see that there are 4 precincts in Cobb county which only reported early votes. In 2016 Clinton got more than 4500 votes from those 4 precincts, they were majority Dem leaning precincts. Had the machines not have been stolen even 3000 votes may have tipped the scales. Can't say whether or not he's have won but it would've right down to the wire had it not happened.

You've got to do better than that.  How about posting the specific precincts and what the official returns from them are?  If you're talking about the incident described at http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/police-honored-for-swift-work-recovering-stolen-voting-equipment/aHfJCsd0UEaSEGl70EjKHL/, it had no effect on the actual vote count.

I'll also point out that Ossoff's official vote total was 92,673 out of 193,981 total cast.  It would be necessary to give Ossoff an additional 8,636 (with none for anyone else) for Ossoff to have received a majority.  (Source: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/67317/Web02-state/#/)

Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for Ossoff in this race.  But the burden of proof is on the person who makes this claim; otherwise it's just another conspiracy theory.  Do you really believe that if this was really an issue that the Democratic party wouldn't have been litigating it to high heaven?

Unfortunately I'm not 100% on the details. I don't think it made a difference in the end as there doesn't seem to be enough votes, but for the numbers reported in these precincts to be true they would have to have something absurd like 10% of turnout.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

Democrats might've even won had there not been a strange mixup involving some of the voting machines in Cobb County. Voting machines were stolen in a few strong Democratic precincts so they only ever reported the early vote.

I did hear about the machines being stolen, but I never heard about it actually effecting the election. I'm not denying it, but if you could give a source or something, I'd love to read it. I'm just curious, that's all.

Well if you look at the NYT map here https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6 you'll see that there are 4 precincts in Cobb county which only reported early votes. In 2016 Clinton got more than 4500 votes from those 4 precincts, they were majority Dem leaning precincts. Had the machines not have been stolen even 3000 votes may have tipped the scales. Can't say whether or not he's have won but it would've right down to the wire had it not happened.

You've got to do better than that.  How about posting the specific precincts and what the official returns from them are?  If you're talking about the incident described at http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/police-honored-for-swift-work-recovering-stolen-voting-equipment/aHfJCsd0UEaSEGl70EjKHL/, it had no effect on the actual vote count.

I'll also point out that Ossoff's official vote total was 92,673 out of 193,981 total cast.  It would be necessary to give Ossoff an additional 8,636 (with none for anyone else) for Ossoff to have received a majority.  (Source: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/67317/Web02-state/#/)

Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for Ossoff in this race.  But the burden of proof is on the person who makes this claim; otherwise it's just another conspiracy theory.  Do you really believe that if this was really an issue that the Democratic party wouldn't have been litigating it to high heaven?

Unfortunately I'm not 100% on the details. I don't think it made a difference in the end as there doesn't seem to be enough votes, but for the numbers reported in these precincts to be true they would have to have something absurd like 10% of turnout.

I'm not doubting that the precincts underreported from a usual number, but I just did not see those four particular ones, since there are so many of them, and they would be hard to spot. If you could point out those four districts on the map, that would be helpful.

[tallguy23]

My favorite thing about Karen Handel is when you explain who she is to people and you mention the Susan G. Komen thing and the response is usually "Oh wait that was her? F**k that lady."

What is this story?

[Barnes]

My favorite thing about Karen Handel is when you explain who she is to people and you mention the Susan G. Komen thing and the response is usually "Oh wait that was her? F**k that lady."

What is this story?

When Handel was head of Susan G. Koman, she forced through a plan to divest the charity from any cooperation with Planned Parenthood, which was incredibly unpopular; she was finally forced out by the board of Koman.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My favorite thing about Karen Handel is when you explain who she is to people and you mention the Susan G. Komen thing and the response is usually "Oh wait that was her? F**k that lady."

What is this story?

Handel's Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_Handel) has a good summary:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[tallguy23]

My favorite thing about Karen Handel is when you explain who she is to people and you mention the Susan G. Komen thing and the response is usually "Oh wait that was her? F**k that lady."

What is this story?

Handel's Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_Handel) has a good summary:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ugh. What an awful woman.