2016 White and Non-White Vote by County Project

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So, I've finished version 2.0 that breaks things down by race.

One issue I've ran into is that since I don't always have county level information for Asian and Hispanic groups, I just apply a statewide weight (i.e. a boost for Trump if there are more Vietnamese in a state, a detraction if there are more Hmong, as an example). for the remaining counties. This sometimes leads to "choppy" borders (where you can tell the boundary of a state). Accordingly, there might need to be some revision at work, though it might also be justified for some states.

Here are all the maps I've made for this project. I apologize for the current colors (I post these maps on the other websites I'm on, where everyone else is accustomed to a Red=Republican scheme). I'll change them to Atlas Colors once I finalize this.

Any suggestions would be appreciated!


(Trump's national share was 56.9% among Whites, 5.0% among Blacks, 23% among Hispanics, 23.5% among Asians, and 32% among Other)

The Asian and Other results were interesting.

I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary received a lower percentage of the white vote than any other major party nominee since McGovern.  Not sure about 1984, but even Mondale probably got more of the Southern white vote than Hillary.

Portland, San Fran and DC have largest percentage of white liberals. Interesting.

Seattle belongs on that list as a city.  (It just doesn't show because more people in King County live outside the city than in it.  Portland contains most Multnomah County residents, San Francisco is a county itself, and DC is like a county for these purposes).

Interesting how both Snohomish County (Everett) and Thurston County (Olympia) whites leaned Hillary but Pierce County (Tacoma) whites leaned towards Trump.

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That sucks. Open Street map

Over a year later, and no further progress was made. As I've said, I doubt this will be recreated again, because Reagente has moved on to other projects.

After finals are over, I'll resurrect this project from the dead - I've found another place to upload an interactive map.

I assume the Latino and Asian results will use disaggregated ethnicity/country of origin data?

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Biden won the white vote in Orange County, CA?!?! (Unless of course ‘white’ includes Hispanic whites.)

I'm guessing Biden narrowly won (Non-Hispanic) Whites there if precinct and city-level swings from 2016 are anything to go by. The county as a whole barely swung D; the more working-class Mexican and Vietnamese areas swung heavily R while everywhere else swung mildly D.

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Biden won the white vote in Orange County, CA?!?! (Unless of course ‘white’ includes Hispanic whites.)

Orange County's electorate was estimated to be 56.2% Non-Hispanic White, 2.1% Non-Hispanic Black, 22.3% Hispanic, 16.8% Non-Hispanic Asian, and 2.6% Non-Hispanic Other.

Trump was estimated to have received the following shares among various groups:

NH White: 48.9%
NH Black: 6.5%
Hispanic: 36.0%
NH Asian: 45.5%
NH Other: 44.4%

Eyeballing precinct data, all of the non-white figures look right except for the Hispanic share - Trump did really badly among Orange County Hispanics compared to the model for some reason (he got about ~20% or so from what I can gather from monolithic Hispanic precincts, so assume he did a few points better than that county wide, as Hispanics living elsewhere are probably more GOP leaning).

If I manually change the estimated Trump support from Hispanics to, say, 25% and keep everything else the same, Trump wins Orange County whites by 9% under that calculation.

This discrepancy probably casts some doubt on Trump getting in the mid 30s nationwide among Hispanics as Catalist or the AP/NORC exit poll suggested. Edison may be closer on the mark with the low 30s. (My model assumed Trump got about 36% nationwide).

Ideally, once all matched 2020 precinct data is out, I could make a very accurate map, but that will take awhile. Until then, I'll try seeing what ad hoc adjustments I can do to make this more accurate. If anyone sees any other results that don't look quite right, let me know!

IIRC the zone of 30-40% R swings from 2016 extended deep into heavily Mexican/Latino Santa Ana and Anaheim. It was by no means limited to the Vietnamese enclaves in Garden Grove and Westminster.

I'm also guessing your Trump estimate for Black voters in Orange County is too low. But they don't make up a very high share of the OC electorate so it probably doesn't matter.