2016 White and Non-White Vote by County Project (user search)
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  2016 White and Non-White Vote by County Project (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2016 White and Non-White Vote by County Project  (Read 29733 times)
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,414
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« on: February 05, 2017, 09:37:24 PM »

Whites in the Midwest left the Democrats like never before. I'm not sure why I'm supposed to believe they'll ever come back to Obama 2012 levels anytime soon.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,414
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2017, 10:11:21 AM »

Whites in the Midwest left the Democrats like never before. I'm not sure why I'm supposed to believe they'll ever come back to Obama 2012 levels anytime soon.

Your logic is mind-boggling. "Well, these people were Democrats until yesterday but since they didn't vote for Hillary (who utterly ignored them in order to court muh moderate suburban voters), clearly now they're lost forever!!!"

I'm looking at more than just the presidential vote. In 2014, Iowa voted for Joni f***ing Ernst, which should've been the first sign the state was moving hard away from Democrats. In 2016 in Wisconsin, Ron Johnson beat progressive stalwart Russ Feingold by a greater margin than Trump did. Further down ballot, Minnesota's congressional Democrats barely held on, and Republicans took control of both the MN and IA State House.

I'm not sure why it's so ridiculous to believe that the Midwest is trending hard R, and Trump just happened to catalyze that process.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,414
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2017, 04:57:39 PM »

Midterms are Midterms, and barely a third of the electorate even showed up to vote in 2014. In 2016 it's obvious that Presidential coattails dominated all downballot votes (literally every State voted the same on Senate elections as their Presidential vote). You don't pronounce the death of Democrats in the Midwest over two atypical election cycles.

But of course, if Democrats accept your logic and decide that the Midwest in lost to them, it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Did I say to abandon them altogether? No. I still want Democrats to fight hard to make sure Tammy Baldwin gets reelected and to throw out Emperor Walker, but if Russ Feingold can't win let alone outperform Hillary, the state is clearly becoming unfriendly territory for Democrats. You can blame job outsourcing, automation, or Walker for destroying unions, but all of these factors are quite difficult to reverse.

Michigan and Pennsylvania can be won back somewhat easier, but it won't be with the exact same coalition that Obama or any previous Democrat was able to put together.
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