2016 White and Non-White Vote by County Project
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  2016 White and Non-White Vote by County Project
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Author Topic: 2016 White and Non-White Vote by County Project  (Read 29311 times)
Calthrina950
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« Reply #100 on: April 30, 2021, 12:24:27 PM »


Over a year later, and no further progress was made. As I've said, I doubt this will be recreated again, because Reagente has moved on to other projects.

After finals are over, I'll resurrect this project from the dead - I've found another place to upload an interactive map.

I'm glad to hear this, and I look forward to seeing the maps again.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #101 on: May 04, 2021, 11:31:49 AM »


Over a year later, and no further progress was made. As I've said, I doubt this will be recreated again, because Reagente has moved on to other projects.

After finals are over, I'll resurrect this project from the dead - I've found another place to upload an interactive map.

I assume the Latino and Asian results will use disaggregated ethnicity/country of origin data?
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #102 on: May 18, 2021, 02:48:35 PM »


Over a year later, and no further progress was made. As I've said, I doubt this will be recreated again, because Reagente has moved on to other projects.

After finals are over, I'll resurrect this project from the dead - I've found another place to upload an interactive map.

I assume the Latino and Asian results will use disaggregated ethnicity/country of origin data?

That's what the old model did.

Now that the 2020 census turnout data is available, I'll probably just create a new model that does 2016 and 2020 the same way, which will allow people to see the swing.

Update: I hope to have an interactive map live by the end of the week.

In the meantime, here are the initial calculations* for Whites and Non-Whites (non Atlas colors) in the 2020 election:

White:


Non-White:


(I will make better static maps that will be uploaded when the interactive map goes live).

*Will revise these when the 2020 hard count figures come out, but I don't expect drastic changes.

Biden won the white vote in Orange County, CA?!?! (Unless of course ‘white’ includes Hispanic whites.)
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #103 on: May 18, 2021, 03:20:36 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 03:50:46 PM by The Community of Xi Guay Ong »


Biden won the white vote in Orange County, CA?!?! (Unless of course ‘white’ includes Hispanic whites.)


I'm guessing Biden narrowly won (Non-Hispanic) Whites there if precinct and city-level swings from 2016 are anything to go by. The county as a whole barely swung D; the more working-class Mexican and Vietnamese areas swung heavily R while everywhere else swung mildly D.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #104 on: May 18, 2021, 03:49:00 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 03:53:40 PM by Alcibiades »

Biden won the white vote in Orange County, CA?!?! (Unless of course ‘white’ includes Hispanic whites.)

I'm guessing Biden narrowly won (Non-Hispanic) Whites there if precinct and city-level swings from 2016 are anything to go by. The county as a whole barely swung D; the more working-class Mexican and Vietnamese areas swung heavily R while everywhere else swung mildly D.

Despite these swings, I still very much struggle to believe that non-Hispanic whites voted fewer than 9 points to the right of the county as a whole.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #105 on: May 18, 2021, 09:47:35 PM »

Biden won the white vote in Orange County, CA?!?! (Unless of course ‘white’ includes Hispanic whites.)


Orange County's electorate was estimated to be 56.2% Non-Hispanic White, 2.1% Non-Hispanic Black, 22.3% Hispanic, 16.8% Non-Hispanic Asian, and 2.6% Non-Hispanic Other.

Trump was estimated to have received the following shares among various groups:

NH White: 48.9%
NH Black: 6.5%
Hispanic: 36.0%
NH Asian: 45.5%
NH Other: 44.4%

Eyeballing precinct data, all of the non-white figures look right except for the Hispanic share - Trump did really badly among Orange County Hispanics compared to the model for some reason (he got about ~20% or so from what I can gather from monolithic Hispanic precincts, so assume he did a few points better than that county wide, as Hispanics living elsewhere are probably more GOP leaning).

If I manually change the estimated Trump support from Hispanics to, say, 25% and keep everything else the same, Trump wins Orange County whites by 9% under that calculation.

This discrepancy probably casts some doubt on Trump getting in the mid 30s nationwide among Hispanics as Catalist or the AP/NORC exit poll suggested. Edison may be closer on the mark with the low 30s. (My model assumed Trump got about 36% nationwide).

Ideally, once all matched 2020 precinct data is out, I could make a very accurate map, but that will take awhile. Until then, I'll try seeing what ad hoc adjustments I can do to make this more accurate. If anyone sees any other results that don't look quite right, let me know!

IIRC the zone of 30-40% R swings from 2016 extended deep into heavily Mexican/Latino Santa Ana and Anaheim. It was by no means limited to the Vietnamese enclaves in Garden Grove and Westminster.

I'm also guessing your Trump estimate for Black voters in Orange County is too low. But they don't make up a very high share of the OC electorate so it probably doesn't matter.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #106 on: May 19, 2021, 01:11:54 AM »
« Edited: May 19, 2021, 01:15:03 AM by Tartarus Sauce »

Biden won the white vote in Orange County, CA?!?! (Unless of course ‘white’ includes Hispanic whites.)


Orange County's electorate was estimated to be 56.2% Non-Hispanic White, 2.1% Non-Hispanic Black, 22.3% Hispanic, 16.8% Non-Hispanic Asian, and 2.6% Non-Hispanic Other.

Trump was estimated to have received the following shares among various groups:

NH White: 48.9%
NH Black: 6.5%
Hispanic: 36.0%
NH Asian: 45.5%
NH Other: 44.4%

Eyeballing precinct data, all of the non-white figures look right except for the Hispanic share - Trump did really badly among Orange County Hispanics compared to the model for some reason (he got about ~20% or so from what I can gather from monolithic Hispanic precincts, so assume he did a few points better than that county wide, as Hispanics living elsewhere are probably more GOP leaning).

If I manually change the estimated Trump support from Hispanics to, say, 25% and keep everything else the same, Trump wins Orange County whites by 9% under that calculation.

This discrepancy probably casts some doubt on Trump getting in the mid 30s nationwide among Hispanics as Catalist or the AP/NORC exit poll suggested. Edison may be closer on the mark with the low 30s. (My model assumed Trump got about 36% nationwide).

Ideally, once all matched 2020 precinct data is out, I could make a very accurate map, but that will take awhile. Until then, I'll try seeing what ad hoc adjustments I can do to make this more accurate. If anyone sees any other results that don't look quite right, let me know!

IIRC the zone of 30-40% R swings from 2016 extended deep into heavily Mexican/Latino Santa Ana and Anaheim. It was by no means limited to the Vietnamese enclaves in Garden Grove and Westminster.

I'm also guessing your Trump estimate for Black voters in Orange County is too low. But they don't make up a very high share of the OC electorate so it probably doesn't matter.

The Santa Ana Republican swings were largely sub-30, mostly between 10-25, Biden was still in the 60s and 70s throughout most of the city. The Anaheim swings were even less than that.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #107 on: May 20, 2021, 11:13:46 AM »

Do you want to collaborate?
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