Serious Q for Republicans
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Author Topic: Serious Q for Republicans  (Read 6564 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: February 05, 2017, 09:23:51 PM »
« edited: March 28, 2017, 01:40:04 PM by Virginia »

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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2017, 09:44:32 PM »

Not a Republican, but I assume President Trump's supreme court and the state legislatures will have disenfranchised all of those people and closed the borders by then so that Republicans can still coast to victory on their white dominance
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2017, 09:50:10 PM »
« Edited: February 05, 2017, 09:51:50 PM by TD »

This is no longer a long term problem for the Republicans. Trump was the first President elected who was affected by this problem. Minorities made up 29% of the electorate and their 75-24% support to Clinton couldn't be offset by a historically high 21% margin among whites. The House GOP eked out the popular vote by 1%, and they won the white vote by 22%.

If you do the math, every 4 years, they need like an extra 3% of the white vote to just offset minority growth. This means the GOP has to increase their white vote totals to 61%, then 64%, then 68% or so by 2028. As an comparison, Bush won whites by 17% in 2004. Trump won it by 21%. That's a shift of 4 points in 12 years. The big difference between Bush and Trump is that Bush won 44% of Latinos and 44% of Asians and 40% of others. Trump hit 29% of Latinos and Asians and 11% of blacks, roughly the same as Romney.

And the 3% growth among white support just translates into 51% support each election. It means that the GOP is vulnerable to defections from say, groups of whites, who are not a homogeneous group. So, basically, the mathematical model says the GOP is locked into decades of 51% wins without growth among minority support, and that's being generous and saying the white vote will increase 3% each election for the GOP.

White population is set to decrease beginning in 2024, as well. That just heightens the minority bloc's importance. Even if you put in a national voting restriction law, it's been shown they decrease the Democratic margin by 1-2%, so you're only protecting yourself in a close race, not a landslide.

Somehow, the concern that was there during the Bush years has been completely lost in the Trump years. Their Muslim ban, the border wall with Mexico, everything doesn't seem geared towards minority voters but to the 90% white base.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2017, 11:24:38 PM »

As Hispanics assimilate (just like the Irish, Italians, and Jews did), they will become part of the white mainstream (at least the majority of Hispanics who have white skin), so America will never truly be majority-minority (or anywhere close to it).
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
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« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2017, 12:38:42 AM »

Somehow I don't see the Hispanics being that into the party that has a President that calls them rapists and mocks them and wants to build a wall with Mexico. Seems to me that it's the kind of thing that prevents them from backing that Party.

They voted 65-29% Democratic for a reason and they've been voting Democratic since the 1960s. Republicans aren't changing that trend. Simply put if Republicans insulted my lineage and my background I'd be pretty sure I'd be hostile to them. “Otherizing“ a group seems a surefire way to get that group to consistently vote against you.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2017, 01:15:53 AM »

As Hispanics assimilate (just like the Irish, Italians, and Jews did), they will become part of the white mainstream (at least the majority of Hispanics who have white skin), so America will never truly be majority-minority (or anywhere close to it).

Yeah but most of those groups assimilated during Plessy v. Ferguson which define race by white and black. Those days are long over. If your talking about Cubans and Puerto Ricans assimilating then your right but they were always white there is not much difference between them and peninsular hispanics. What the op meant was Mestizos who are genetically similar to what we call Native Americans. I doubt they will assimilate because 1 Mexico is right there and 2 most want to retain their Mexican/Mesoamerican identity. They will likely if not already go the way of African Americans were they do not assimilate with American culture but American culture assimilate with them. For example American culture has taken so much from African Americans in fashion, music, cuisine, and vernacular especially for a minority group. So much that they complain about cultural appropriation. That is the future of Hispanics Americans. If your are saying that Hispanics climbing up the economical ladder is somehow equivalent to the assimilation of white people that is not only idiotic but insulting.
           
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2017, 06:35:09 AM »
« Edited: February 06, 2017, 06:36:50 AM by DC Al Fine »

The American system makes it difficult for one coalition to get too much larger than the other. Factions will wind up resenting each other. New issues will arise that divide a coalition. At some point, some group will get dissatisfied with the Democrats and the GOP will be able to peel them off.

Now, that doesn't preclude the GOP having awful medium term prospects, but in the long term they'll be ok. I'm purposely leaving the prediction vague because who knows what the future holds, but I am confident, at some point the Democratic coalition will get too big, and some faction will break. Actually you could argue this happened with the white working class in the Midwest last year.
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Person Man
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« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2017, 07:45:43 AM »

I think the place where you don't want to be as a party is to be totally dependent on external events for winning elections.
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AGA
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« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2017, 09:07:24 AM »

Well, whites seem to be trending Republican, potentially countering minority growth.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2017, 09:51:33 AM »

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Hispanic and Asian vote.  I think it could be argued that Black Americans - for a variety of reasons - have been very adamant about NOT assimilating into "mainstream White America" (whatever that means), and they also vote Democratic for a variety of historical reasons, but groups like the Irish and Italians - once fiercely loyal to the Democratic Party for literally the exact same reasons that Hispanics would support them today (White WASP Republicans came off as anti-immigrant, and the Democrats' progressive economic policies - especially in cities - helped them out economically, which is what matters most to voters in dire situations) - are now Republican-leaning groups, because those people don't feel alienated from the majority.

However, the GOP of the 1940s, 1950s, 1960s and 1970s took a decidedly more liberal tone on immigration, and I don't think Italian and Irish Americans warm up to them if they don't.  So, take note, 21st Century GOP.
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Santander
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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2017, 10:27:38 AM »

We just need to work harder to bring God back into the public sphere and convert more of them into Evangelical Christians.
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2017, 11:03:15 AM »

We just need to work harder to bring God back into the public sphere and convert more of them into Evangelical Christians.

He tells it as it is.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2017, 11:13:41 AM »

We just need to work harder to bring God back into the public sphere and convert more of them into Evangelical Christians.

Yes, that ship has sailed. Thanks, though.
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Santander
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« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2017, 11:15:05 AM »

We just need to work harder to bring God back into the public sphere and convert more of them into Evangelical Christians.

Yes, that ship has sailed. Thanks, though.
It's a better plan than meaningless platitudes like "communicating conservative values" to minorities.
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
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« Reply #14 on: February 06, 2017, 11:16:52 AM »

We just need to work harder to bring God back into the public sphere and convert more of them into Evangelical Christians.

Yes, that ship has sailed. Thanks, though.
It's a better plan than some meaningless platitudes about "communicating conservative values" to minorities.

I don't think that's a winning strategy, in the increasingly irreligious United States, let alone it's not within a political party's sphere to convert people to Christianity. Probably would offend that growing bloc of non-religious voters, might cause even more problems.

It could just be wiser to do immigration reform and try to win 40% of Latinos. But of course, that's too hard for the Republicans.
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Eharding
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« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2017, 01:47:53 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2017, 02:04:38 PM by Eharding »

Doesn't it concern you at least somewhat that Democrats wipe the floor with you each and every election with minority voters?  There isn't even a positive trend.  Yet every 4 years they become an additional 2% of the vote.  You do realize at some point winning becomes implausible unless you improve among African Americans/Hispanics/Asians right?  

What is the long term strategy here?

Another thing to keep in mind... people that are around 25-45 are probably the most liberal current generation, thanks in large part to George W. Bush.  This group is going to replace the 80+ year olds who die off in the next 10-20 years.  So the country is probably going to get more liberal as well...

-There obviously is a positive trend among Hispanics. Look at the South Texas counties from 1960 to today. In any case, differential fertility also favors White Cruzlims, as well as Hispanics.

The long-term strategy here is to revise immigration downward. We don't want the entirety of the United States to become New Mexico (even if New Mexico was a solidly Republican state!).

So far, death patterns have actually been helping the GOP due to the death of the New Deal Democrats.

Stuff like candidate quality and outside circumstances is far more influential on the nationwide vote than mass immigration and differential fertility, at least, in the short-term. By how much would Trump have won the popular vote in 2000 had he been the GOP candidate that year?

Dems control no branches of government at present due to Trump's successful use of the Sailer strategy (designed in 2000), so they crow about imaginary victories in the distant future. But I say unto you, thou shalt not count thine chickens before they hatch!
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Eharding
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« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2017, 01:54:36 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2017, 01:58:18 PM by Eharding »

We just need to work harder to bring God back into the public sphere and convert more of them into Evangelical Christians.

Yes, that ship has sailed. Thanks, though.
It's a better plan than some meaningless platitudes about "communicating conservative values" to minorities.

I don't think that's a winning strategy, in the increasingly irreligious United States, let alone it's not within a political party's sphere to convert people to Christianity. Probably would offend that growing bloc of non-religious voters, might cause even more problems.

It could just be wiser to do immigration reform and try to win 40% of Latinos. But of course, that's too hard for the Republicans.

-If Romney won 50% of Latinos with no gains with non-college Whites, he would still have lost in the electoral college. Think!

Also, "immigration reform" is simply code for "national suicide". Why not make Mexico City the capital of the U.S. in 2017, then? I'm not a fan, BTW.
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Pericles
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« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2017, 02:05:04 PM »

Also Hispanics are overwhelmingly concentrated in states like Texas, California and New York that are not currently competitive so they have less impact on the election than thought because they are inefficiently located for the Electoral College.
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Eharding
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« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2017, 02:15:03 PM »

Also Hispanics are overwhelmingly concentrated in states like Texas, California and New York that are not currently competitive so they have less impact on the election than thought because they are inefficiently located for the Electoral College.

-Indeed. Winning only 51 fewer electoral votes than Donald J. Trump because you spent all your money on Hispanic outreach isn't much fun:
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hopper
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« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2017, 02:19:38 PM »

Doesn't it concern you at least somewhat that Democrats wipe the floor with you each and every election with minority voters?  There isn't even a positive trend.  Yet every 4 years they become an additional 2% of the vote.  You do realize at some point winning becomes implausible unless you improve among African Americans/Hispanics/Asians right? 

What is the long term strategy here?

Another thing to keep in mind... people that are around 25-45 are probably the most liberal current generation, thanks in large part to George W. Bush.  This group is going to replace the 80+ year olds who die off in the next 10-20 years.  So the country is probably going to get more liberal as well...
....and Barack Obama who minorities voters took/take a heavy liking too.
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hopper
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« Reply #20 on: February 06, 2017, 02:21:23 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2017, 02:27:22 PM by hopper »

Not a Republican, but I assume President Trump's supreme court and the state legislatures will have disenfranchised all of those people and closed the borders by then so that Republicans can still coast to victory on their white dominance
No borders aren't being closed off even by The Trump Administration.
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Eharding
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« Reply #21 on: February 06, 2017, 02:23:43 PM »

Not a Republican, but I assume President Trump's supreme court and the state legislatures will have disenfranchised all of those people and closed the borders by then so that Republicans can still coast to victory on their white dominance
No borders aren't closing any borders off even by The Trump Administration.

-That would be the missed opportunity of a lifetime. At least Gorsuch won't amnesty the illegal immigrants by judicial fiat.
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hopper
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« Reply #22 on: February 06, 2017, 02:26:29 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2017, 02:39:42 PM by hopper »

This is no longer a long term problem for the Republicans. Trump was the first President elected who was affected by this problem. Minorities made up 29% of the electorate and their 75-24% support to Clinton couldn't be offset by a historically high 21% margin among whites. The House GOP eked out the popular vote by 1%, and they won the white vote by 22%.

If you do the math, every 4 years, they need like an extra 3% of the white vote to just offset minority growth. This means the GOP has to increase their white vote totals to 61%, then 64%, then 68% or so by 2028. As an comparison, Bush won whites by 17% in 2004. Trump won it by 21%. That's a shift of 4 points in 12 years. The big difference between Bush and Trump is that Bush won 44% of Latinos and 44% of Asians and 40% of others. Trump hit 29% of Latinos and Asians and 11% of blacks, roughly the same as Romney.

And the 3% growth among white support just translates into 51% support each election. It means that the GOP is vulnerable to defections from say, groups of whites, who are not a homogeneous group. So, basically, the mathematical model says the GOP is locked into decades of 51% wins without growth among minority support, and that's being generous and saying the white vote will increase 3% each election for the GOP.

White population is set to decrease beginning in 2024, as well. That just heightens the minority bloc's importance. Even if you put in a national voting restriction law, it's been shown they decrease the Democratic margin by 1-2%, so you're only protecting yourself in a close race, not a landslide.

Somehow, the concern that was there during the Bush years has been completely lost in the Trump years. Their Muslim ban, the border wall with Mexico, everything doesn't seem geared towards minority voters but to the 90% white base.
Romney won the white vote by 21% points too but he didn't win in 2012.

White Population has been decreasing as a % of the US Population for a few decades because of Hispanic Growth so its nothing new. I know you are trying to say the White Population won't even be growing by 2024 but overall growth of the White Population has been flat since 2000 or  maybe even the 1990 Census.
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hopper
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« Reply #23 on: February 06, 2017, 02:31:48 PM »

Somehow I don't see the Hispanics being that into the party that has a President that calls them rapists and mocks them and wants to build a wall with Mexico. Seems to me that it's the kind of thing that prevents them from backing that Party.

They voted 65-29% Democratic for a reason and they've been voting Democratic since the 1960s. Republicans aren't changing that trend. Simply put if Republicans insulted my lineage and my background I'd be pretty sure I'd be hostile to them. “Otherizing“ a group seems a surefire way to get that group to consistently vote against you.
Trump did no worse than Romney with Hispanic Voters though in the end though.

Build a wall-Didn't Congress vote to build a fence in 2006 along the Mexican Border but the fence was never built?
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hopper
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« Reply #24 on: February 06, 2017, 02:34:37 PM »

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Hispanic and Asian vote.  I think it could be argued that Black Americans - for a variety of reasons - have been very adamant about NOT assimilating into "mainstream White America" (whatever that means), and they also vote Democratic for a variety of historical reasons, but groups like the Irish and Italians - once fiercely loyal to the Democratic Party for literally the exact same reasons that Hispanics would support them today (White WASP Republicans came off as anti-immigrant, and the Democrats' progressive economic policies - especially in cities - helped them out economically, which is what matters most to voters in dire situations) - are now Republican-leaning groups, because those people don't feel alienated from the majority.

However, the GOP of the 1940s, 1950s, 1960s and 1970s took a decidedly more liberal tone on immigration, and I don't think Italian and Irish Americans warm up to them if they don't.  So, take note, 21st Century GOP.
Asian Vote will be Dem for a long long time because of where they live: San Francisco, Bergen County, NJ, New York City, and Northern Virginia.
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