The Northern Strategy Explained (user search)
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  The Northern Strategy Explained (search mode)
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Sbane
sbane
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« on: February 08, 2017, 12:20:43 PM »

I don't understand how the GOP executes the Northern strategy without abandoning their Southern and Interior West base, and the evangelical conservatives. I would assume there would need to be a sea change in American politics for the Northern Strategy to be effective, since it would effectively repudiate the Reagan coalition. E.g, it would shift the GOP coalition to the North, with an intent to be competitive in working class pockets of Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, as well as New Jersey.

The big problem is that the Southern evangelicals and the cultural conservatives have an iron grip on the Party's nomination. They were among Trump's best supporters in the primaries. Trump pledged conservative judges, which is anathema to the Northern areas that may support Trump and a more moderate economically minded GOP but are turned off by the social issues.

This Northern strategy assumes the collapse of the GOP's evangelical core, which would assume they became powerless, which is not quite happening without a major event to convince the GOP to shift from the Reagan formula. I don't see that absent a sea change in American politics, on the order of say, the post-World War II political regime shifting to the left drastically in Europe and the Conservatives coping by adopting the strategy you outline.

Your Northern strategy, in other words, IMO, may make sense but it only makes sense in the context of the Democrats realigning the country and the GOP responding by adopting your strategy to stay viable.

I don't think you understand how much Christianity is declining in this country.  And thus the GOP will portray itself as the protector of secularism against religious immigrants.  This is basically what's happening in Europe.

I doubt that the shrinking base of Christian conservatives will allow this to happen. At the least they'll fight tooth and nail. Most Republican politicians and voters are very religious still, and many are just as religious as the immigrants they oppose. Democrats have been the relatively-secular party, but in the future (as they are now) I see them being a pluralist party, meaning that they accommodate different religions and ethnicity under their coalition. Republicans under Trump will continue down the path of being a white Christian party unless they change something.

Older Republicans will continue to care about social issues.  But the younger Republicans do not share their concerns.  The right-wing presence on the internet is largely focused on other issues.  Since at least 2015 anti-SJW culture has been a major part of Conservatism.  Anti-SJW culture is not very socially conservative (many who support it are atheists).  And anti-SJW culture is enormously popular with younger Republicans, the future of the party.

Many Republican politicians are publicly religious to pander for votes.  The political elite in the GOP wants to abandon social conservatism now that it isn't as useful as it was in 2004.  There will be very little resistance from them.  Just take a look at the fact that Republicans aren't exploiting the transgender bathroom issue like they did with gay marriage.  Social issues are clearly no longer a focus of the GOP.

You do realize that the SJWs are pushing for very liberal social policies, and the people who push back against it do because they realize they're insane.  Anyway, we're not going away (the youngest generation is arguably the most against abortion of any generation, for example).  Social conservatives are a HUGE voting block, and the GOP would be dead without us.

I don't support the Northern Strategy, I'm just saying it's a reality (and in some ways the logical conclusion of the Southern Strategy).

The GOP can retain social conservatives because the Democrats are always going to be at least one step ahead of them.  The GOP is rapidly moving left on social issues, just not as rapidly as the Democrats.  Religion is declining in America and it would be declining much faster if it wasn't for immigrants.  Soon enough an atheist who lives in Boston is going to realize that the biggest threat to social liberalism in America is not Joe the farmer who lives in Missouri (as it used to be), it's the immigrant who lives only a few blocks away.  When this happens in large numbers throughout America's cities and suburbs, there will be a massive wave of Middle and Upper-class xenophobia.  As much as I hate to say it, the GOP is probably going to pander to these people.  Of course, many Republicans will dissent, but their voices will be increasingly marginalized.

This would make sense in the context of European-style immigration by working class people from the Middle East and Africa. In America, however, most immigration is either by working class people from Latin America or from well educated people from Asia. Latin Americans have a culture very similar to ours so I don't think the Boston atheist is going to be concerned by that. And his friends will likely be well educated Asians so there's that.
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