The Northern Strategy Explained (user search)
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Author Topic: The Northern Strategy Explained  (Read 30714 times)
The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,271


« on: February 05, 2017, 09:30:56 PM »

I don't understand how the GOP executes the Northern strategy without abandoning their Southern and Interior West base, and the evangelical conservatives. I would assume there would need to be a sea change in American politics for the Northern Strategy to be effective, since it would effectively repudiate the Reagan coalition. E.g, it would shift the GOP coalition to the North, with an intent to be competitive in working class pockets of Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, as well as New Jersey.

The big problem is that the Southern evangelicals and the cultural conservatives have an iron grip on the Party's nomination. They were among Trump's best supporters in the primaries. Trump pledged conservative judges, which is anathema to the Northern areas that may support Trump and a more moderate economically minded GOP but are turned off by the social issues.

This Northern strategy assumes the collapse of the GOP's evangelical core, which would assume they became powerless, which is not quite happening without a major event to convince the GOP to shift from the Reagan formula. I don't see that absent a sea change in American politics, on the order of say, the post-World War II political regime shifting to the left drastically in Europe and the Conservatives coping by adopting the strategy you outline.

Your Northern strategy, in other words, IMO, may make sense but it only makes sense in the context of the Democrats realigning the country and the GOP responding by adopting your strategy to stay viable.
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,271


« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2017, 11:10:27 AM »

I don't think you understand how much Christianity is declining in this country.  And thus the GOP will portray itself as the protector of secularism against religious immigrants.  This is basically what's happening in Europe.

My concern is that the Southern and Midwestern evangelical base makes up what, 50% of the GOP vote? Maybe more? How do you just switch to a more secular Northern pattern without a basic upheaval in politics, since they've been dominant in GOP politics since 1980? I'm not seeing the evangelicals give up power that easily or their agenda items quietly.
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,271


« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2017, 08:23:48 PM »

I don't understand how the GOP executes the Northern strategy without abandoning their Southern and Interior West base, and the evangelical conservatives. I would assume there would need to be a sea change in American politics for the Northern Strategy to be effective, since it would effectively repudiate the Reagan coalition. E.g, it would shift the GOP coalition to the North, with an intent to be competitive in working class pockets of Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, as well as New Jersey.

The big problem is that the Southern evangelicals and the cultural conservatives have an iron grip on the Party's nomination. They were among Trump's best supporters in the primaries. Trump pledged conservative judges, which is anathema to the Northern areas that may support Trump and a more moderate economically minded GOP but are turned off by the social issues.

This Northern strategy assumes the collapse of the GOP's evangelical core, which would assume they became powerless, which is not quite happening without a major event to convince the GOP to shift from the Reagan formula. I don't see that absent a sea change in American politics, on the order of say, the post-World War II political regime shifting to the left drastically in Europe and the Conservatives coping by adopting the strategy you outline.

Your Northern strategy, in other words, IMO, may make sense but it only makes sense in the context of the Democrats realigning the country and the GOP responding by adopting your strategy to stay viable.

I don't think you understand how much Christianity is declining in this country.  And thus the GOP will portray itself as the protector of secularism against religious immigrants.  This is basically what's happening in Europe.

I doubt that the shrinking base of Christian conservatives will allow this to happen. At the least they'll fight tooth and nail. Most Republican politicians and voters are very religious still, and many are just as religious as the immigrants they oppose. Democrats have been the relatively-secular party, but in the future (as they are now) I see them being a pluralist party, meaning that they accommodate different religions and ethnicity under their coalition. Republicans under Trump will continue down the path of being a white Christian party unless they change something.

Older Republicans will continue to care about social issues.  But the younger Republicans do not share their concerns.  The right-wing presence on the internet is largely focused on other issues.  Since at least 2015 anti-SJW culture has been a major part of Conservatism.  Anti-SJW culture is not very socially conservative (many who support it are atheists).  And anti-SJW culture is enormously popular with younger Republicans, the future of the party.

Many Republican politicians are publicly religious to pander for votes.  The political elite in the GOP wants to abandon social conservatism now that it isn't as useful as it was in 2004.  There will be very little resistance from them.  Just take a look at the fact that Republicans aren't exploiting the transgender bathroom issue like they did with gay marriage.  Social issues are clearly no longer a focus of the GOP.

You do realize that the SJWs are pushing for very liberal social policies, and the people who push back against it do because they realize they're insane.  Anyway, we're not going away (the youngest generation is arguably the most against abortion of any generation, for example).  Social conservatives are a HUGE voting block, and the GOP would be dead without us.

I think he just proved my point.
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,271


« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2017, 11:52:53 AM »

At some point, though, the GOP is going to have to quit with gay marriage, gay rights, and probably the death penalty. A lot of 18-29 find the whole birth control drama idiotic. Ditto the whole creationism thing in public schools, which just sounds anachronistic to a generation that firmly believes evolution happened.

Just be pro-gay rights, pro-life, and generally in line with the scientific community on social issues and the environment and the GOP would probably start attracting more (net) votes.
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