If Trump has a +50% approval rating entering Election Day 2020

[Metallifreak10]

Post your maps, timelines, opinions, whatever. I Believe his ceiling is 55%. And that is assuming everything is going great. The reason why 55% is his ceiling is pretty obvious considering how he acts. That being said, if the economy is going great, no new wars, and he pushes for a $10 min wage, and gets paid maternity leave for women, it's an outside possibility. But, the other 40-45% would assume that no matter how good things are, it is all despite what Trump has done. Obama's policies are what got us there.

 Anyways, thoughts?

[Metallifreak10]

I'd say 40% likely his approval is below 40%, 50% likely it's 40-50%, 10% likely it's over 50%.

 I would not say zero chance.

[pbrower2a]

Post your maps, timelines, opinions, whatever. I Believe his ceiling is 55%. And that is assuming everything is going great. The reason why 55% is his ceiling is pretty obvious considering how he acts. That being said, if the economy is going great, no new wars, and he pushes for a $10 min wage, and gets paid maternity leave for women, it's an outside possibility. But, the other 40-45% would assume that no matter how good things are, it is all despite what Trump has done. Obama's policies are what got us there.

 Anyways, thoughts?

Why do you believe that the President will have an approval rating anywhere near 50%?

The economy that he has now is still the Obama economy. He is doing nothing to reduce polarization in American life. The executive orders that he started with as end runs against statutory law and the Constitution that bypass the legislative process demonstrate both incompetence and a dictatorial style of governing. He has done nothing to win those who didn't vote for him. His ideas for improving the economy will require great pain from the non-rich for returns that come ten years or so down the line. His erratic foreign policy will offend anyone who thinks that the Reagan-Bush-Clinton-Obama foreign policy has been desirable.

He has led a near-majority of Americans practically shut out of having their ideas relevant to the political process in Congress to take their grievances to the streets as protests, and on issues from feminism to religious freedom to LGBT rights to the environment. The protesters  are making their grievances known, and they can be expected to set up a strong opposition to just about all Republicans in 2018, let alone 2020.

So how is Donald Trump going to have an approval rating around 50%?

[DPKdebator]

Post your maps, timelines, opinions, whatever. I Believe his ceiling is 55%. And that is assuming everything is going great. The reason why 55% is his ceiling is pretty obvious considering how he acts. That being said, if the economy is going great, no new wars, and he pushes for a $10 min wage, and gets paid maternity leave for women, it's an outside possibility. But, the other 40-45% would assume that no matter how good things are, it is all despite what Trump has done. Obama's policies are what got us there.

 Anyways, thoughts?

Why do you believe that the President will have an approval rating anywhere near 50%?

The economy that he has now is still the Obama economy. He is doing nothing to reduce polarization in American life. The executive orders that he started with as end runs against statutory law and the Constitution that bypass the legislative process demonstrate both incompetence and a dictatorial style of governing. He has done nothing to win those who didn't vote for him. His ideas for improving the economy will require great pain from the non-rich for returns that come ten years or so down the line. His erratic foreign policy will offend anyone who thinks that the Reagan-Bush-Clinton-Obama foreign policy has been desirable.

He has led a near-majority of Americans practically shut out of having their ideas relevant to the political process in Congress to take their grievances to the streets as protests, and on issues from feminism to religious freedom to LGBT rights to the environment. The protesters  are making their grievances known, and they can be expected to set up a strong opposition to just about all Republicans in 2018, let alone 2020.

So how is Donald Trump going to have an approval rating around 50%?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_feb3

[Metallifreak10]

Look, I don't think Trump will have an approval rating over 50%. This is just a "what if". The overwhelming amount of predictions people are making on here for 2020 are those that generally show Trump losing comfortably. I'm just asking a "what if". I know that this site is filled with left-leaning individuals, so that's why I even threw in the part about things going great despite Trump.

 Also, I don't see the Democrats taking the senate in 2018. Only 8 GOP seats up, and 7 of those are in pretty "safe" states.

 Also, Trump supports the LGBT community. He always has. I don't get why people think he is anti-LGBT..

[DPKdebator]

Look, I don't think Trump will have an approval rating over 50%. This is just a "what if". The overwhelming amount of predictions people are making on here for 2020 are those that generally show Trump losing comfortably. I'm just asking a "what if". I know that this site is filled with left-leaning individuals, so that's why I even through in the part about things going great despite Trump.

 Also, I don't see the Democrats taking the senate in 2018. Only 8 GOP seats up, and 7 of those are in pretty "safe" states.

 Also, Trump supports the LGBT community. He always has. I don't get why people think he is anti-LGBT..

If Trump's current 53% approval rating equates to 53% of the PV (about 72 million), here's what the EV map would probably be:

If Trump's approval rating is something like 60% or higher, I could easily see this happening:

[Metallifreak10]

Look, I don't think Trump will have an approval rating over 50%. This is just a "what if". The overwhelming amount of predictions people are making on here for 2020 are those that generally show Trump losing comfortably. I'm just asking a "what if". I know that this site is filled with left-leaning individuals, so that's why I even through in the part about things going great despite Trump.

 Also, I don't see the Democrats taking the senate in 2018. Only 8 GOP seats up, and 7 of those are in pretty "safe" states.

 Also, Trump supports the LGBT community. He always has. I don't get why people think he is anti-LGBT..

If Trump's current 53% approval rating equates to 53% of the PV (about 72 million), here's what the EV map would probably be:

If Trump's approval rating is something like 60% or higher, I could easily see this happening:

  I agree with one exception.. I think if Trump has a 52-54% approval rating, he would still lose Virginia by 0.5%-1.0% against a generic Democrat.

[Rjjr77]

Depends where the approval rating is. I think we need to ignore nationals polls, and focus on regional. Let's say he gains approval from the coasts, where he is hated and has the most points to gain but loses the Midwest?

[Figueira]

Look, I don't think Trump will have an approval rating over 50%. This is just a "what if". The overwhelming amount of predictions people are making on here for 2020 are those that generally show Trump losing comfortably. I'm just asking a "what if". I know that this site is filled with left-leaning individuals, so that's why I even through in the part about things going great despite Trump.

 Also, I don't see the Democrats taking the senate in 2018. Only 8 GOP seats up, and 7 of those are in pretty "safe" states.

 Also, Trump supports the LGBT community. He always has. I don't get why people think he is anti-LGBT..

If Trump's current 53% approval rating equates to 53% of the PV (about 72 million), here's what the EV map would probably be:

If Trump's approval rating is something like 60% or higher, I could easily see this happening:

That first map is basically his ceiling, regardless of how popular he is. Oregon, Connecticut, Delaware, and New Jersey are kind of possible, but not really.

[หมูเด้ง]

Look, I don't think Trump will have an approval rating over 50%. This is just a "what if". The overwhelming amount of predictions people are making on here for 2020 are those that generally show Trump losing comfortably. I'm just asking a "what if". I know that this site is filled with left-leaning individuals, so that's why I even through in the part about things going great despite Trump.

 Also, I don't see the Democrats taking the senate in 2018. Only 8 GOP seats up, and 7 of those are in pretty "safe" states.

 Also, Trump supports the LGBT community. He always has. I don't get why people think he is anti-LGBT..

If Trump's current 53% approval rating equates to 53% of the PV (about 72 million), here's what the EV map would probably be:

If Trump's approval rating is something like 60% or higher, I could easily see this happening:

That first map is basically his ceiling, regardless of how popular he is. Oregon, Connecticut, Delaware, and New Jersey are kind of possible, but not really.

I agree. The absolute max.
That's what? A 9 point swing to Obama's 2008 showing? Not even Reagan did that...

The only bigger swing I know of was with Nixon. But the Democrats were in firm control of Congress and Roe v Wade was written next year. Apples and Oranges.